EUR/USD edged higher to 1.2181 last week but retreated. Though, downside was contained well above 1.1985 support. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and further rally is expected. On the upside, break of 1.2181 will resume the rise from 1.1703 to 1.2242/2348 resistance zone. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend for 1.2555 key resistance zone next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. Reaction from 1.2555 should reveal underlying long term momentum in the pair.

In the long term picture, the case of long term bullish reversal continues to build up, with bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD, sustained trading above 55 month EMA and long trend falling trend line. Focus is now on 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). Decisive break there will confirm and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3862 and above.

EUR/USD’s rebound from 0.9951 resumed last week but failed to sustain above 1.0348 support turned resistance. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 1.0201 support will argue that such rebound is completed, after rejection by 55 day EMA too. Intraday bias will be back to the downside for retesting 0.9951 low. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.0348 will argue that rally from 0.9951 is at least correcting the fall from 1.1494. Further rise should then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.1494 to 0.9951 at 1.0540.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0773 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

In the long term picture, long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) resuming. Sustained break of 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 1.0090 will pave the way to 100% projection at 0.8694.

EUR/USD recovered to 1.1172 last week but reversed and dropped sharply from there. The development suggests that a head and shoulder top could be formed (ls: 1.1199, h: 1.1239, rs: 1.1172. Focus is now on 1.1085 support this week. Break there will argue that whole corrective rise from 1.0879 has completed. In this case, intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 1.0981 support for confirmation. On the upside, above 1.1172 will turn bias to the upside for 1.1239 instead.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 1.0879 is seen as a corrective move at this point. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.0879 at 1.1519. And, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) would resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1519 will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger rise to 61.8% retracement at 1.1915 next.

In the long term picture, outlook remains bearish for now. EUR/USD is held below decade long trend line that started from 1.6039 (2008 high). It was also rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 before. A break of 1.0039 low will remain in favor as long as 55 month EMA (now at 1.1538) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2057; (P) 1.2114; (R1) 1.2168; More…

EUR/USD recovers ahead of 1.2052 support but stays below 1.2188 minor resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, firm break of 1.2052 will will resume whole correction from 1.2348. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.2348 at 1.1887. On the upside, though, break of 1.2188 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.2348.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. We’d be alerted to topping sign around 1.2516/55. But sustained break there will carry long term bullish implications.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1450; (P) 1.1495; (R1) 1.1567; More…..

EUR/USD’s rally accelerates to as high as 1.1601 so far today and met 61.8% projection of 1.0774 to 1.1422 from 1.1168 at 1.1568. There is no sign of topping yet and intraday bias stays on the upside for 100% projection at 1.1816 next. On the downside, break of 1.1507 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 1.1496 key resistance will argue that whole down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has completed at 1.0635. Rise from 1.0635 would then be seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339. Further medium term rally would be seen to retest 1.2555. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.1168 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1950; (P) 1.2042; (R1) 1.2090; More…

EUR/USD’s fall from 1.2265 accelerates lower and it’s now pressing 1.1985 support. Sustained break there should confirm that consolidation pattern from 1.2348 is already in the third leg. Deeper decline should be seen to retest 1.1703 support next. On the upside, above 1.2092 minor resistance will turn intraday bias back to the upside for retesting 1.2265 instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. Reaction from 1.2555 should reveal underlying long term momentum in the pair. However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again.

EUR/USD dropped sharply to as low as 1.1111 last week before forming a temporary bottom and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. Recovery should be limited well below 1.1324 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 1.1111 will extend down trend to 100% projection of 1.1448 to 1.1183 from 1.1324 at 1.1059. Break will target 161.8% projection at 1.0895.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has just resumed. 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2016 low) to 1.2555 (2018 high) at 1.1186 was also taken out. Current fall should now target 78.6% retracement at 1.0813. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the downside, break of 1.1448 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance, 55 month and 55 week EMA. Break of 1.0339 will resume the down trend to 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2555 at 0.9501

EUR/USD’s rise from 1.0447 resumed last week and hit as high as 1.0913 despite interim setback. Initial bias is now on the upside this week for 61.8% retracement of 1.1274 to 1.0447 at 1.0958 next. Firm break there will pave the way to retest 1.1274 high next. On the downside, below 1.0823 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is tentatively seen as the second leg. Hence while further rally could be seen, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern.

In the long term picture, a long term bottom is in place at 0.9534 on bullish convergence condition in M MACD. it still early to call for bullish trend reversal is still staying inside falling channel. Nevertheless, sustained trading above 55 M EMA (now at 1.1081) and break of 1.1274 resistance will raise the chance of reversal and target 1.2348 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2376; (P) 1.2419 (R1) 1.2490; More….

EUR/USD’s rise was limited at 1.2475 and dropped sharply since then. Intraday bias is turned neutral again. On the upside, above 1.2475 will target a test on 1.2555 high, which is close to 1.2516 key long term fibonacci level. We’d be cautious on reversal from there. But decisive break will carry larger bullish implications. On the downside, below 1.2285 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 1.2154 and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862 in medium term.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2308; (P) 1.2341 (R1) 1.2384; More….

EUR/USD surges to as high as 1.2438 and intraday bias is back to the upside for 1.2445 resistance. Break will resume whole rebound form 1.2154 and target 1.2555 high which is close to 1.2516 key long term fibonacci level. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. On the downside, however, firm break of 1.2238 will turn bias back to the downside, to resume the fall from 1.2555 through 1.2154.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1902; (P) 1.1924; (R1) 1.1944; More…

EUR/USD is still staying above 1.1846 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 1.1846 will resume the fall from 1.2265, as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.2348, to 1.1703 support. On the upside, break of 1.1974 minor resistance will bring stronger rise back to 1.2265 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. Reaction from 1.2555 should reveal underlying long term momentum in the pair. However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1734; (P) 1.1808; (R1) 1.1861; More…..

EUR/USD is staying in consolidation from 1.1916 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise could be seen as long as 1.1695 support holds. On the upside, break of 1.1916 will target will extend larger rally from 1.0635 to 161.8% projection of 1.0774 to 1.1422 from 1.1255 at 1.2303. However, firm break of 1.1695 should confirm short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside to wards 1.1422 resistance turned support.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has completed at 1.0635 already. Rise form 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally rise should be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1422 resistance turned support holds.

EUR/USD’s sharp fall last week suggests that recovery from 1.1107 has completed at 1.1347. Initial bias is now on the downside for 1.1107 low first. We’d be cautious on strong support from there to bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.1268 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.1347 again.

In the bigger picture, considering bullish convergence condition in daily and weekly MACD, a medium term bottom could be in place at 1.1107 after hitting 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2016 low) to 1.2555 (2018 high) at 1.1186. Hence, for now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 1.1107 low holds. Break of 1.12347 will extend the rebound towards 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1107 at 1.1660. However, sustained break of 1.1107 will confirm resumption of down trend from 1.2555.

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance, 55 month and 55 week EMA. Break of 1.0339 will resume the down trend to 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2555 at 0.9501

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1343; (P) 1.1388; (R1) 1.1420; More….

EUR/USD’s decline is in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside for 1.1300 low. Break will resume whole down trend from 1.2555 and target 1.1186 fibonacci level next. On the upside, above 1.1432 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will remain cautiously bearish as long as 1.1621 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 1.1300 could have completed at 1.1814 after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779. Decisive break of 1.1300 will resume the down trend from 1.2555 to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1814 will delay the bearish case and extend the correction from 1.1300 with another rise before completion.

EUR/USD retreated from 1.1908 last week but downside is contained above 1.1792 minor support so far. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, sustained break of 1.1907 resistance will indicate that fall from 1.2265, as well as the consolidation pattern from 1.2348, have completed. Near term outlook will be turned bullish for 1.2265/2348 resistance zone. However, on the downside, break of 1.1792 will retain near term bearishness, and turn bias back to the downside for 1.1663 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally remains in favors long as 1.1602 support holds, to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 and below.

In the long term picture, focus remains on 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). Sustained break there should confirm long term bullish reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3862 and above. However, rejection by 1.2555 will keep long term outlook neutral first, and raise the prospect of down trend resumption at a later stage.

A short term top was in place at 1.1138 in EUR/USD with last week’s pull back. But as it recovered after dipping to 1.0876, initial bias is neutral this week first. On the downside, below 1.0876 will target 1.0722 support next. However, break of 1.0997 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.1138 high instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is seen as the second leg. While further rally could cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.0722 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 1.0447 and below.

In the long term picture, a long term bottom is in place at 0.9534 on bullish convergence condition in M MACD. It’s still early to call for bullish trend reversal with the pair staying inside falling channel in the monthly chart. Nevertheless, sustained trading above 55 M EMA (now at 1.1073) and break of 1.1274 resistance will raise the chance of reversal and target 1.2348 resistance for confirmation.

EUR/USD rebounded after hitting 1.1834 last week, but lost momentum after hitting 1.1989. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, above 1.1989 will target 55 day EMA (now at 1.2054) . Firm break there will indicate completion of correction from 1.2348 and bring retest of this high. On the downside, however, break of 1.1834 will extend the correction from 1.2348 to 38.2% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1694.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. We’d be alerted to topping sign around 1.2516/55. But sustained break there will carry long term bullish implications.

In the long term picture, the case of long term bullish reversal continues to build up, with bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD, sustained trading above 55 month EMA and long trend falling trend line. Focus is now on 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). Decisive break there will confirm and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3862 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1179; (P) 1.1196 (R1) 1.1210; More…..

EUR/USD’s strong rise today suggests that corrective rebound from 1.1111 might extend higher. But still, outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.1324 resistance holds. Larger down trend is expected to resume sooner or later. On the downside, break of 1.1111 low will target 100% projection of 1.1569 to 1.1176 from 1.1448 at 1.1105 next. However, firm break of 1.1324 will be an early sign of larger trend reversal. In such case, further rise would be seen back to 1.1448 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) is still in progress. Current fall should now target 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 (2016 low) to 1.2555 (2018 high) at 1.0813. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the downside, break of 1.1448 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0789; (P) 1.0812; (R1) 1.0856; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. Overall, consolidation from 1.0635 is still extending. Above 1.0899 minor resistance will bring another rise to 1.1019 resistance and above. But upside should be by 61.8% retracement of 1.1496 to 1.0635 at 1.1167. On the downside, break of 1.0727 will bring retest of 1.0635 low next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1496 resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) should still be in progress. Next target is 1.0339 (2017 low). However, sustained break of 1.1496 will argue that such down trend has completed. Rise from 1.0635 could then be seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339. In this case, outlook will be turned bullish for retesting 1.2555.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1356; (P) 1.1387; (R1) 1.1430; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. The corrective structure from 1.1215 so far suggests that larger decline is not completed yet. And downside breakout is in favor. On the downside, break of 1.1270 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.1215 low. Break will resume down trend from 1.2555 to 1.1186 key fibonacci level. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.1499 will suggest near term reversal and bring stronger rebound back to 1.1621 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1814 resistance holds, down trend down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. However, break of 1.1814 will confirm completion of such down trend and turn medium term outlook bullish.