Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1261; (P) 1.1286; (R1) 1.1303; More…

EUR/USD is losing some downside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But further decline remains in favor with 1.1344 minor resistance intact. Recovery from 1.1107 might have completed earlier than expected at 1.1412. Break of 1.1181 support will confirm and bring retest of 1.1107 low. Though, above 1.1344 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside to resume the rebound from 1.1107 through 1.1412 instead.

In the bigger picture, considering bullish convergence condition in daily and weekly MACD, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.1107 after hitting 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2016 low) to 1.2555 (2018 high) at 1.1186. Further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1107 at 1.1660. Reactions from there could indicate whether rebound from 1.1107 is a corrective rise or reversing medium term trend. In any case, risk will stay mildly on the upside as long as 1.1107 low remains intact.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2308; (P) 1.2341 (R1) 1.2384; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral first. But we’re favoring the bullish case that consolidation from 1.2445 has completed at 1.2238. And, another rise is expected. On the upside, above 1.2445 will target a test on 1.2555 high, which is close to 1.2516 key long term fibonacci level. On the downside, however, firm break of 1.2238 will turn bias back to the downside, to resume the fall from 1.2555 through 1.2154.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1613; (P) 1.1662 (R1) 1.1696; More…

Despite edging higher to 1.1711, EUR/USD quickly retreated. Considering weak momentum with 4 hour MACD staying below signal line, intraday bias is turned neutral first. Some consolidations would be seen but downside should be contained above 1.1444 resistance turned support and bring another rally. Above 1.1711 will target 1.2 handle next.

In the bigger picture, an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 1.1760) will pave the way to key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. While rise fro 1.0339 is strong, there is no confirmation that it’s developing into a long term up trend yet. Hence, we’ll be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside. But for now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1295 support holds, in case of pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0449; (P) 1.0551 (R1) 1.0620; More…..

EUR/USD drops sharply today and focus is back on 1.0351 low. Break will resume the larger down trend and target parity next. In case of another recovery, we’d expect upside to be limited by 1.0669 resistance and bring down trend resumption. However, firm break of 1.0669 will argue that stronger recovery is underway back to 1.0872 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, break of 1.0461 key support indicates that consolidation from there has completed as a triangle at 1.1298. And, the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is resuming. Current downtrend is now expected to target 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1084; (P) 1.1101; (R1) 1.1128; More…

EUR/USD recovers ahead of 1.1062 minor support but stays in consolidations from 1.1179. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Further rise is expected with 1.1062 minor support intact. On the upside break of 1.1179 will resume the rebound from 1.0879 to 1.1412 key resistance. However, break of 1.1062 will argue that rebound from 1.0879 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 1.0879.

In the bigger picture, at this point, rebound from 1.0879 is seen as a corrective move first. Hence, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.0879 at 1.1519. And, down trend from down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) would resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1519 will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger rise to 61.8% retracement at 1.1915 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2326; (P) 1.2370 (R1) 1.2452; More….

EUR/USD picks up upside momentum again as lifted by ECB Draghi. key fibonacci cluster level at 1.2494/2516 is already met but there is no sign of topping yet. Intraday bias stays on the upside. Sustained break of 1.2494.2516 will target 100% projection of 1.0569 to 1.2091 from 1.1553 at 1.3075 next. On the downside, below 1.2388 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. But key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 is looking vulnerable. Sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862. Nonetheless, rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1189; (P) 1.1206 (R1) 1.1228; More….

EUR/USD’s fall from 1.1295 extends lower today and breaks 1.1165 minor support. Still, it’s holding above 1.1109 support and outlook is unchanged. Intraday bias remains neutral with focus on 1.1298 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implication and target 1.1615 resistance next. On the downside, break of 1.1109 support will indicate short term topping and rejection from 1.1298. In such case, intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 1.0838 support.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up with EUR/USD staying far above 55 week EMA (now at 1.0922). Also, bullish convergence condition is seen in weekly MACD. Focus will now be on 1.1298 key resistance. Rejection from there will maintain medium term bearishness and would extend the whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). However, firm break of 1.1298 will indicate reversal. In such case, further rally would be seen back to 1.2042 support turned resistance next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0534; (P) 1.0554; (R1) 1.0584; More…

EUR/USD is recovering after hitting 1.0522 support, but stays well below 1.0693 resistance. Intraday bias stays neutral first. On the downside, break of 1.0522 support will confirm rejection by 55 D EMA, and retain near term bearishness. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 1.0447. Break there will resume larger fall from 1.1274. On the other, strong bounce from current level, followed by break above 1.0693, rebound from 1.0447 to 1.0764 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.1274 to 1.0447 at 1.0763).

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1274 medium term top could still be a correction to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). But chance of a complete trend reversal is rising. In either case, current fall should target 61.8% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0199 next. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 1.0668) holds, in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0842; (P) 1.0863; (R1) 1.0879; More…

EUR/USD retreated after edging higher to 1.0884 and intraday bias is turned neutral again. Further rise would be mildly in favor as long as 1.0790 minor support holds. Above 1.0884 will resume the rebound form 1.0723 to 1.0941 resistance first. However, break of 1.0790 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.0723 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is seen as the second leg. While further rally could cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.0694 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 1.0447 and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1310; (P) 1.1391; (R1) 1.1413; More……

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for 100% projection of 1.1107 to 1.1347 from 1.1181 at 1.1142 first. Break will target 161.8% projection at 1.1569 next. On the downside, below 1.1365 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolations. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.1181 support holds.

In the bigger picture, considering bullish convergence condition in daily and weekly MACD, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.1107 after hitting 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2016 low) to 1.2555 (2018 high) at 1.1186. Further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1107 at 1.1660. Reactions from there could indicate whether rebound from 1.1107 is a corrective rise or reversing medium term trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1194; (P) 1.1222; (R1) 1.1241; More…..

EUR/USD’s fall from 1.1448 resumed after brief consolidation. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.1176 low. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 1.2555. On the upside, however, break of 1.1273 support turned resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.1448 instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term weakness was revived as the weak rebound from 1.1176 was rejected well below 55 week EMA and failed to sustain above 55 day EMA. Focus is back on 1.1176 low, with 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2016 low) to 1.2555 (2018 high) at 1.1186. Decisive break there will resume whole down trend from 1.2555. Such decline target 1.0339 low next. On the upside, firm break of 1.1569 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, downside breakout will be in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1783; (P) 1.1797; (R1) 1.1810; More…

EUR/USD’s break of 1.1804 resistance should now confirm short term bottoming at 1.1663, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.1907 resistance first. Firm break there will indicate that fall from 1.2265, as well as the consolidation pattern from 1.2348, have completed. Near term outlook will be turned bullish for 1.2265/2348 resistance On the downside, break of 1.1734 minor support will turn focus back to 1.1602/1703 key support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally remains in favors long as 1.1602 support holds, to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1678; (P) 1.1703; (R1) 1.1720; More…

EUR/USD’s breach of 1.1682 suggests resumption of fall from 1.1908. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 1.1663 low first. Decisive break there will resume the fall from 1.2265, and the pattern from 1.2348, to 1.1602 key support next. On the upside, however, above 1.1749 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.1908 again.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally remains in favors long as 1.1602 support holds, to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0851; (P) 1.0872; (R1) 1.0889; More…

Range trading continues in EUR/USD and intraday bias stays neutral at this point. Further rally is expected as long as 1.0788 support holds. Break of 1.0915 will resume the rally from 1.0601 to 61.8% projection of 1.0601 to 1.0894 from 1.0788 at 1.0969. However, firm break of 1.0788 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper decline instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern. Fall from 1.1138 is seen as the third leg and could have completed. Firm break of 1.1138 will argue that larger up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is ready to resume through 1.1274 high. On the downside, break of 1.0788 support will extend the corrective pattern instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2328; (P) 1.2397 (R1) 1.2518; More….

EUR/USD’s strong rebound and break of 1.2403 suggests that pull back from 1.2537 has completed at 1.2205, after drawing support from 1.2222 key support level. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.2537 resistance. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend and target 100% projection of 1.0569 to 1.2091 from 1.1553 at 1.3075. In any case, for now, as long as 1.2205 support holds, outlook will remain bullish.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0957; (P) 1.0978; (R1) 1.0999; More…

No change in EUR/USD’s outlook as consolidation from 1.0879 is extending. Intraday bias remains neutral first. While further rise cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.1109 resistance. On the downside, break of 1.0879 will resume larger down trend to 1.0813 fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) is in progress. Prior rejection of 55 week EMA also maintained bearishness. Further fall should be seen to 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.0813. Decisive break there will target 1.0339 (2017 low). On the upside, break of 1.1412 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1139; (P) 1.1155; (R1) 1.1183; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment and consolidation from 1.1179 might extend. Further rise is expected with 1.1062 support intact. On the upside break of 1.1179 will resume the rebound from 1.0879 to 1.1412 key resistance. However, break of 1.1062 will argue that rebound from 1.0879 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 1.0879.

In the bigger picture, at this point, rebound from 1.0879 is seen as a corrective move first. Hence, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.0879 at 1.1519. And, down trend from down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) would resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1519 will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger rise to 61.8% retracement at 1.1915 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0858; (P) 1.0907; (R1) 1.0932; More…

EUR/USD’s break of 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0900) indicates short term topping at 1.0980. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.0797 support. Firm break there will argue that rebound from 1.0694 has completed and bring retest of this low. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.0980 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is seen as the second leg. While further rally could cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.0694 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 1.0447 and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1699; (P) 1.1753 (R1) 1.1786; More….

EUR/USD’s choppy decline from 1.1860 extends lower today. But it’s staying well above 1.1677 minor support. Intraday bias remains neutral and another rally is still in favor. As noted before, corrective fall from 1.2091 has completed at 1.1553 already, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.0569 to 1.2091 at 1.1510. Above 1.1860 will turn bias to the upside for retesting 1.2091 high. However, break of 1.1677 will dampen this bullish view and turn focus back to 1.1553 low instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is seen as a corrective move for the moment. Therefore, in case of another rally, we’d be cautious on 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 to limit upside and bring reversal. Meanwhile, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 1.1373) will suggest that such medium term rebound is completed and could then bring retest of 1.0339 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1756; (P) 1.1789 (R1) 1.1840; More…

The consolidation pattern from 1.1908 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.1119 to 1.1908 at 1.1606 to bring up trend resumption. Break of 1.1846 minor resistance will argue that larger rise from 1.0339 is resuming for 1.2042 long term support turned resistance next.

In the bigger picture, an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 month EMA (now at 1.1768) will pave the way to key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. While rise from 1.0339 is strong, there is no confirmation that it’s developing into a long term up trend yet. Hence, we’ll be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside. But for now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1295 support holds, in case of pull back.