Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9911; (P) 1.0000; (R1) 1.0053; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and outlook stays bearish with 1.0121 minor resistance intact. Break of 0.9899 will resume larger down trend to 61.8% projection of 1.0773 to 0.9951 from 1.0368 at 0.9860. Firm break there should prompt downside acceleration to 100% projection at 0.9546. However, firm break of 1.0121 will dampen this view and turn focus to 1.0368 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0368 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1259; (P) 1.1289; (R1) 1.1317; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as range trading continues. Downside breakout is mildly in favor with 1.1382 minor resistance intact. On the downside, break of 1.1185 will resume larger fall from 1.2348. Next target is 161.8% projection of 1.2265 to 1.1663 from 1.1908 at 1.0934. On the upside, however, firm break of 1.1382 resistance should confirm short term bottoming at 1.1186. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.1450).

In the bigger picture, there are various ways of interpreting the fall from 1.2348 (2021 high). It could be a correction to rise from 1.0635 (2020 low), the fourth leg of a sideway pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low), or resuming long term down trend. In any case, outlook will now stay bearish as long as 1.1703 support turned resistance holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 would pave the way back to 1.0635.

EUR/USD’s long term down trend finally resumed last week and hit as long as 1.0070, meeting long term projection level at 1.0090. A temporary low was formed and initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Some consolidations could be seen but upside should be limited by 1.0358 support turned resistance to bring another fall. Break of 1.0070 will target 100% projection of 1.1184 to 1.0348 from 1.0773 at 0.9937, which is close to parity.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.0339 long term support (2017 low) indicates resumption of whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). Sustained break of 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 1.0090 will pave the way to 100% projection at 0.8694. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0773 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) resuming. Sustained break of 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 1.0090 will pave the way to 100% projection at 0.8694.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1676; (P) 1.1725; (R1) 1.1758; More…..

EUR/USD’s fall from 1.2011 is still in progress and intraday bias on the downside, for 38.2% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2011 at 1.1485. On the upside, though, break of 1.1871 resistance will revive near term bullishness and bring retest of 1.2011 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally rise should be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1422 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0854; (P) 1.0888; (R1) 1.0924; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point, as consolidation from 1.0964 is extending. Further rally is in favor as long as 1.0823 support holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.1274 to 1.0447 at 1.0958 will resume the rise from 1.0447 to retest 1.1274 high. However, firm break of 1.0823 will indicate short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for deeper decline.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is tentatively seen as the second leg. Hence while further rally could be seen, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1950; (P) 1.2042; (R1) 1.2090; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside at this point. Fall from 1.2265 is seen as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.2348. Deeper fall would be seen to retest 1.1703 support next. On the upside, above 1.2005 minor resistance would turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. Reaction from 1.2555 should reveal underlying long term momentum in the pair. However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1765; (P) 1.1843; (R1) 1.1889; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral with current retreat. But further rise is still mildly in favor as long as 1.17971 minor support holds. Above 1.1920 will target a test on 1.2011 high first. Break will resume whole rally from 1.0635. However, break of 1.1791 will turn bias back to the downside, to extend the corrective pattern from 1.2011.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1422 resistance turned support holds.

EUR/USD surged to as high as 1.1658 last week as rise from 1.0635 extended. Initial bias remains on the upside this week. Next target will be 100% projection of 1.0774 to 1.1422 from 1.1168 at 1.1816. On the downside, below 1.1581 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But retreat should be contained by 1.1422 resistance turned support to bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 1.1496 resistance now suggests that whole down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has completed at 1.0635 already. Rise form 1.0635 should be the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rise should be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1168 support holds.

In the long term picture, the strong break of 55 month EMA is taken as a sign of long term trend reversal. Immediate focus will be on decade long trend line resistance (now at 1.1777). Sustained trading above there will add more credence to the case that down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) has finished at 1.0339. Further break of 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ) will confirm and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3862 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2013; (P) 1.2046; (R1) 1.2070; More….

A temporary top is formed at 1.2079 in EUR/USD and intraday bias is turned neutral first. But further rally is expected as long as 1.1941 support holds. As noted before, correction from 1.2348 should have completed with three waves down to 1.1703. Break of 1.2079 will target 1.2442/2348 resistance zone. However, break of 1.1941 will argue that the rebound from 1.1703 has completed, and turn bias back to the downside for this support.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. However, sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that whole rise from 1.10635 has completed. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2142; (P) 1.2194; (R1) 1.2227; More….

EUR/USD is staying in consolidation from 1.2244 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise is expected as long as 1.2050 support holds. On the upside, break of 1.2244 will target a test on 1.2348 high. Decisive break there should confirm resumption of up trend from 1.0635. Next target is 1.2555 key long term resistance zone. However, break of 1.2050 will delay the bullish case. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside to extend the consolidation pattern from 1.2348 with another falling leg.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. Reaction from 1.2555 should reveal underlying long term momentum in the pair.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0709; (P) 1.0763; (R1) 1.0793; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD continues today and intraday bias stays on the downside for 1.0601 support. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 1.1138, as the third leg of the pattern from 1.1274, and target channel support at 1.0510. On the upside, above 1.0744 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern, which might still be in progress. Break of 1.0601 will target 1.0447 support and possibly below. Nevertheless, on the upside, firm break of 1.1138 will argue that larger up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is ready to resume through 1.1274 high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1140; (P) 1.1163; (R1) 1.1186; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. Price actions from 1.1111 is a correction pattern and could have completed at 1.1263. Decisive break of 1.1111 will resume larger down trend for 100% projection of 1.1448 to 1.1183 from 1.1324 at 1.1059. Though, on the upside, above 1.1224 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside to extend the consolidation from 1.1111 first.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) is still in progress. Such decline would target 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 (2016 low) to 1.2555 (2018 high) at 1.0813 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1448 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

EUR/USD fell further to 1.0634 last week but recovered since then. As a temporary top was then formed at 1.0778, initial bias is turned neutral this week first. On the upside, above 1.0778 will resume the rebound from 1.0634 short term bottom to 55 D EMA (now at 1.0829). On the downside, though, break of 1.0634 will resume the fall from 1.1094 to 1.0515 cluster support, 38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1094 at 1.0498.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0515 support holds, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) would still extend higher. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 will solidify the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next (2021 high).

In the long term picture, focus is now on 55 M EMA (now at 1.1134). Rejection by this EMA will revive long term bearishness. However, sustained break above here will be affirm the case of long term bullish reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2344; (P) 1.2369 (R1) 1.2393; More….

EUR/USD lost momentum after hitting 1.2396, as seen in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. As long as 1.2302 minor support holds, further rise is in favor. Above 1.2396 will target 1.2475 first. Break will target key resistance level at 1.2555 high. However, as EUR/USD is still bounded in range trading pattern from 1.2555, break of 1.2302 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2214 instead.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862 in medium term.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0841; (P) 1.0897; (R1) 1.0933; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside. Fall from 1.1138 is in progress for 1.0722 support. Sustained break there will argue that whole rise from 1.0447 has completed, and target this low. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.0995 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is seen as the second leg. While further rally could cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.0722 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 1.0447 and below.

EUR/USD continued to engage in sideway trading last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, and downside breakout is in favor. On the downside, firm break of 1.0447 will resume whole fall from 1.1274 and target 1.0199 fibonacci level. On the upside, however, break of 1.0639 turn bias to the upside for 1.0764 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.1274 to 1.0447 at 1.0763).

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1274 medium term top could still be a correction to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). But chance of a complete trend reversal is rising. In either case, current fall should target 61.8% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0199 next. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 1.0684) holds, in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might still be in progress. Rejection by 55 M EMA (now at 1.1087) will retain long term bearishness, for another fall through 0.9534 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0495; (P) 1.0544 (R1) 1.0596; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.0470. Upside of recovery should be limited by 1.0756 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. Break of 1.0470 will target 161.8% projection of 1.1494 to 1.0805 from 1.1184 at 1.0069.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.2348 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 1.1185 support turned resistance holds. The break of 1.0635 (2020 low) now raises the chance that it’s resuming long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). Retest of 1.0339 (2017 low) low should be seen next. Decisive break there will confirm this bearish case.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1031; (P) 1.1086; (R1) 1.1116; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remain neutral for consolidations below 1.1138 temporary top. Further rally is expected as long as 1.0929 support holds. Break of 1.1138 will resume the rise from 1.0447 to retest 1.1274 high. Strong resistance should be seen from there to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Meanwhile, break of 1.0929 will indicate short term topping and turn bias back to the downside for 1.0772 support.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is seen as the second leg. While further rally could cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.0722 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 1.0447 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0759; (P) 1.0792; (R1) 1.0858; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.0885 will likely extend the corrective pattern from 1.0635 with another rise through 1.0990. But upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 1.1496 to 1.0635 at 1.1167. On the downside, break of 1.0727 will target a test on 1.0635 low.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1496 resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) should still be in progress. Next target is 1.0339 (2017 low). However, sustained break of 1.1496 will argue that such down trend has completed. Rise from 1.0635 could then be seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339. In this case, outlook will be turned bullish for retesting 1.2555.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1371; (P) 1.1403 (R1) 1.1440; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.1364 temporary low. Stronger recovery cannot be ruled out. But upside should be limited by 1.1529 support turned resistance to bring another fall. On the downside, below 1.1364 will resume larger decline to 61.8% projection of 1.2413 to 1.1509 from 1.1745 at 1.1186. Note that it’s a cluster level with 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. Hence, we’ll tentatively look for short term bottoming around 1.1186.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 1.2555 medium term is in progress for 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. Note again that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Sustained break of 1.1186 could pave the way back to retest 1.0339 low. For now, outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.1851 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.