Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1541; (P) 1.1572 (R1) 1.1606; More…..

EUR/USD quickly recovers after breaching 1.1509 to 1.1507 and intraday bias remains neutral first. More consolidation could be seen and another recovery cannot be ruled out. But upside should be limited below 1.1851 resistance to bring fall resumption. Firm break of 1.1509 will resume larger decline from 1.2555 through 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447 to 61.8% retracement at 1.1186.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1727; (P) 1.1770 (R1) 1.1791; More….

EUR/USD is staying in tight range despite today’s recovery. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Focus is on 1.1712 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.1553 to 1.1960 at 1.1708). Decisive break there should confirm completion of rebound from 1.1553 at 1.1960. This would also be supported by a head and shoulder pattern (ls: 1.1860; h: 1.1960; rs: 1.1862). And in that case, deeper fall should be seen through 1.1553 to extend the medium term decline from 1.2091. Meanwhile, above 1.1862 will revive near term bullishness and target 1.1960 and above.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is seen as a corrective move for the moment. Therefore, in case of another rally, we’d be expect 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 to limit upside and bring reversal. Meanwhile, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 1.1435) will suggest that such medium term rebound is completed and could then bring retest of 1.0339 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1763; (P) 1.1805 (R1) 1.1862; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. With 1.1908 resistance intact, more consolidation could be seen first. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.1119 to 1.1908 at 1.1606 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.1908 will extend recent up trend to 1.2042 long term support turned resistance next.

In the bigger picture, an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 month EMA (now at 1.1768) will pave the way to key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. While rise from 1.0339 is strong, there is no confirmation that it’s developing into a long term up trend yet. Hence, we’ll be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside. But for now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1295 support holds, in case of pull back.

EUR/USD’s strong rally last week suggests that correction from 1.2348 has already completed with three waves down to 1.1703, just ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1694. Further rally is expected this week as long as 1.1992 support holds. Next target is retesting of 1.2242/2348 resistance zone. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend from 1.0635.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. However, sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that whole rise from 1.10635 has completed. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289.

In the long term picture, the case of long term bullish reversal continues to build up, with bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD, sustained trading above 55 month EMA and long trend falling trend line. Focus is now on 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). Decisive break there will confirm and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3862 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0635; (P) 1.0665; (R1) 1.0711; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside as current rally from 0.9534 is in progress for 61.8% projection of 0.9729 to 1.0481 from 1.0289 at 1.0754. Firm break there could prompt upside acceleration to 100% projection at 1.1041. On the downside, however, break of 1.0503 support will indicate short term topping, and turn bias to the downside for 1.0289 support instead.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.0609. Rejection by 1.0609 will suggest that price actions from 0.9534 medium term bottom are developing into a corrective pattern. Thus, medium bearishness is retained for another fall through 0.9534 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.0609 will raise the chance of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.1273.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1631; (P) 1.1648 (R1) 1.1675; More…..

EUR/USD rebounds notably today but upside is limited well below 1.1790 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Consolidation pattern from 1.1509 is still in progress. In case of stronger recovery, upside should be limited by 1.1851 resistance to bring fall resumption eventually. On the downside, decisive break of 1.1507 low will resume larger down trend from 1.2555 through 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447.

In the bigger picture, EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2112; (P) 1.2171; (R1) 1.2210; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays on the downside at this point. Correction from 1.2348 is in progress for 1.2058 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.2348 at 1.2063). Strong support should be seen there to contain downside to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.2244 minor resistance will bring retest of 1.2348.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. We’d be alerted to topping sign around 1.2516/55. But sustained break there will carry long term bullish implications.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0903; (P) 1.0925; (R1) 1.0942; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidation below 1.0969 temporary top. Further rally is expected as long as 1.0803 support holds. On the upside, above 1.0969 will resume the rise from 1.0634 to retest 1.1094 high. Decisive break there will confirm resumption of whole up trend from 0.9534. However, firm break of 1.0803 will extend the corrective pattern from 1.1094 with another falling leg, targeting 1.0634 and below.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0515 support holds, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) would still extend higher. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 will solidify the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next (2021 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1061; (P) 1.1116 (R1) 1.1157; More….

EUR/USD’s rally resumed after brief consolidation and hits as high as 1.1188 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Current rise from 1.0569 is seen as part of the rebound from 1.0339 and would target 138.2% projection of 1.0339 to 1.0828 from 1.0569 at 1.1245, which is close to 1.1298 key resistance. For now, we’d be cautious on strong resistance between 1.1245/1298 to limit upside and bring reversal. On the downside, below 1.1075 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But break of 1.0838 support is needed to indicate reversal. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1298 key resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still expected to continue. Break of 1.0339 low will send EUR/USD through parity. However, considering bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD, break of 1.1298 will indicate long term reversal. In such case, further rally would be seen back to 1.2042 support turned resistance next.

EUR/USD’s decline continued last week and hit as low as 1.1185. But as a temporary low was formed, initial bias is neutral this week first. Further decline is still in favor as long as 1.1373 resistance holds. Break of 1.1185 will target 161.8% projection of 1.1908 to 1.1523 from 1.1691 at 1.1068 next. However, firm break of 1.1373 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways of interpreting the fall from 1.2348 (2021 high). It could be a correction to rise from 1.0635 (2020 low), the fourth leg of a sideway pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low), or resuming long term down trend. In any case, outlook will now stay bearish as long as 1.1703 support turned resistance holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 would pave the way back to 1.0635.

In the long term picture, EUR/USD has possibly failed 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516) again. Long term outlook will remain neutral as sideway pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low) is extending with another medium term fall. For now, we’d hold back from assessing the chance of downside breakout, and monitor the momentum of the decline from 1.2348 first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1719; (P) 1.1746 (R1) 1.1786; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as the correction from 1.1908 continues. Deeper fall could be seen but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.1119 to 1.1908 at 1.1606 to bring up trend resumption. Break f 1.1846 minor resistance will argue larger rise from 1.0339 is resuming for 1.2042 long term support turned resistance next.

In the bigger picture, an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 month EMA (now at 1.1768) will pave the way to key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. While rise from 1.0339 is strong, there is no confirmation that it’s developing into a long term up trend yet. Hence, we’ll be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside. But for now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1295 support holds, in case of pull back.

EUR/USD stayed in range of 1.1711/1965 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and further rally is in favor. On the upside, break of 1.1965 will resume whole rise from 1.0635. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 1.1711 should confirm short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.1591).

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has completed at 1.0635 already. Rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally rise should be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1422 resistance turned support holds.

In the long term picture, the strong break of 55 month EMA is taken as a sign of long term trend reversal. Immediate focus will be on decade long trend line resistance (now at 1.1700). Sustained trading above there will add more credence to the case that down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) has finished at 1.0339. Further break of 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ) will confirm and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3862 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1797; (P) 1.1824; (R1) 1.1838; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays mildly on the downside. Rebound from 1.1663 could have completed at 1.1908, after rejection by 1.1907 key structural resistance. Deeper fall would be seen for retesting 1.1663 support. Break there will extend the whole pattern from 1.2348 towards 1.1602 key support level. On the upside, above 1.1850 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for another test on 1.1907/8 resistance.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally remains in favors long as 1.1602 support holds, to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1152; (P) 1.1170 (R1) 1.1180; More….

EUR/USD dips to 1.1109 earlier today but recovers quickly. Intraday bias remains neutral as the consolidation from 1.1267 is still in progress. Overall, we remain cautious on strong resistance from 1.1245/98 (138.2% projection of 1.0339 to 1.0828 from 1.0569 at 1.1245) to limit upside and bring reversal. But another rise is still mildly in favor as long as 1.1020 resistance turned support holds. Decisive break of 1.1298 will carry larger bullish implication and target 1.1615 resistance next. On the downside, break of 1.1020 will indicate rejection from 1.1245/98 and turn bias to the downside for 1.0838 support.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up with EUR/USD staying far above 55 week EMA (now at 1.0888). Also, bullish convergence condition is seen in weekly MACD. Focus will now be on 1.1298 key resistance. Rejection from there will maintain medium term bearishness and would extend the whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). However, firm break of 1.1298 will indicate reversal. In such case, further rally would be seen back to 1.2042 support turned resistance next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1872; (P) 1.1896; (R1) 1.1925; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is neutral for the moment, but further rise is in favor with 1.1821 minor support intact. Above 1.1926 will resume the rebound from 1.1703 to 1.1988 resistance. Firm break there should affirm the case that correction from 1.2348 has completed at 1.1703. On the downside, however, break of 1.1821 will turn bias back to the downside back to 38.2% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1694.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. However, sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that whole rise from 1.10635 has completed. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0768; (P) 1.0835; (R1) 1.0870; More….

EUR/USD’s steep decline today and strong break of 55 D EMA (now at 1.0810) indicates short term topping at 1.0915. more importantly, rebound from 1.0601 might have completed already, and EUR/USD is now is another falling leg of the corrective pattern from 1.1274. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.0601 support next. For now, risk will be mildly on the downside as long as 1.0915 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern, which might still be in progress. Break of 1.0601 will target 1.0447 support and possibly below. Nevertheless, on the upside, firm break of 1.1138 will argue that larger up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is ready to resume through 1.1274 high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2099; (P) 1.2114; (R1) 1.2135; More…

EUR/USD’s fall from 1.2265 is still in progress for 1.1985 support. Break there will confirm that consolidation pattern from 1.2348 has started the third leg. Deeper fall would then be seen back to 1.1703 support. On the upside, above 1.2217 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.2265 and above.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. Reaction from 1.2555 should reveal underlying long term momentum in the pair.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9740; (P) 0.9797; (R1) 0.9859; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Break of 0.9634 minor support will suggest that larger down trend is ready to resume. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 0.9534 and below. However, sustained break of 0.9863 will confirm short term bottoming, and bring stronger rally back to 1.0197 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. In any case, break of 1.0197 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish even with strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1250; (P) 1.1267 (R1) 1.1294; More….

EUR/USD lost much moment with 4 hour MACD crossed below signal line, ahead of 1.1298 key resistance. Intraday bias is turned neutral. Further rise will remain in favor as long as 1.1109 support holds. Decisive break of 1.1298 will carry larger bullish implication and target 1.1615 resistance next. Nonetheless, we’d stay cautious on rejection from 1.1298. Break of 1.1109 will indicate short term topping and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up with EUR/USD staying far above 55 week EMA (now at 1.0888). Also, bullish convergence condition is seen in weekly MACD. Focus will now be on 1.1298 key resistance. Rejection from there will maintain medium term bearishness and would extend the whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). However, firm break of 1.1298 will indicate reversal. In such case, further rally would be seen back to 1.2042 support turned resistance next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1193; (P) 1.1240; (R1) 1.1274; More…

No change in EUR/USD’s outlook and intraday bias remains on the downside for the moment. Corrective recovery from 1.1107 should have completed way earlier than expected at 1.1412. Firm break of 1.1181 support will confirm this bearish case and target retest of 1.1107 low. On the upside, above 1.1287 minor resistance will turn intraday bias back to the upside for 1.1412 instead.

In the bigger picture, bullish convergence condition in daily and weekly MACD suggests that 1.1107 is a medium term bottom. However, rejection by 55 EMA retains medium term bearish. Outlook will be neutral for now. On the downside, break of 1.1107 will resume the down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) to 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.0813. Meanwhile, break of 1.1412 will resume the rebound to 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1107 at 1.1660.