EUR/USD’s rise from 0.9534 resumed last week and surged to as high as 1.0363. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 1.0609 fibonacci level next. On the downside, below 1.0221 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom was in place at 0.9534, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Even as a corrective rise, rally from 0.9534 should target 38.2% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.0609. Sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 1.0575) will raise the chance of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.1273. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.0092 resistance turned support holds.

In the long term picture, as long as 1.0635 support turned resistance holds (2020 low), long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008) could still extend through 0.9534 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.0635 will confirm bottoming and at least turn long term outlook neutral.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2070; (P) 1.2118; (R1) 1.2157; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains as consolidation from 1.2177 temporary top is extending. Downside of retreat should be contained by 1.2003 support to bring another rise. On the upside, break of 1.2177 will target 61.8% projection of 1.0635 to 1.2011 from 1.1602 at 1.2452 next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0850; (P) 1.0895 (R1) 1.0924; More…

No change in EUR/USD’s outlook and intraday bias stays on the downside for retesting 1.0805 low first. Firm break there will resume larger down trend from 1.2248. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.1494 to 1.0805 from 1.1184 at 1.0758, and then 100% projection at 1.0495. On the upside, above 1.0987 minor resistance will mix up the outlook and bring recovery.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.2348 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 1.1494 resistance holds. Firm break of 1.0635 (2020 low) will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption and target a retest on 1.0339 (2017 low) next. Nevertheless, break of 1.1494 will maintain medium term neutral outlook, and extending term range trading first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1886; (P) 1.1919 (R1) 1.1974; More…

EUR/USD is bounded in range of 1.1822/2091 so far and intraday bias stays neutral. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour and daily MACD, break of 1.1822 should confirm near term reversal. In the case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside through 1.1661 support. EUR/USD should then correct whole rise from 1.0569 and target 38.2% retracement of 1.0569 to 1.2091 at 1.1510. However, rebound from 1.1822/1837 and break of 1.2029 will resume the larger up trend to next key fibonacci level at 1.2516.

In the bigger picture, rise from medium term bottom at 1.0339 is still in progress for 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. However, it should be noted that there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, such rebound from 1.0399 could be a correction. And the long term fall fro 1.6039 (2008 high) could resume. Hence, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside. But after all, break of 1.1661 is needed to indicate medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1847; (P) 1.1915 (R1) 1.1950; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as the corrective pattern from 1.2069 is unfolding. While deeper fall cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained well above 1.1661 support to bring rise resumption. Above 1.2069 will extend the whole rally from 1.0339 to 61.8% projection of 1.1118 to 1.1908 from 1.1661 at 1.2149 first. Break there will target 100% projection at 1.2451 next.

In the bigger picture, an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 month EMA (now at 1.1768) will pave the way to key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. While rise from 1.0339 is strong, there is no confirmation that it’s developing into a long term up trend yet. Hence, we’ll be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside. For now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1295 support holds, in case of pull back.

EUR/USD rose further to as high as 1.2149 last week but retreated since then. A short term top could be formed and initial bias is mildly on the downside for deeper pull back. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.1703 to 1.2149 at 1.1979 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.2149 will resume the rise from 1.1703 to 1.2242/2348 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. However, sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that whole rise from 1.10635 has completed. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289.

In the long term picture, the case of long term bullish reversal continues to build up, with bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD, sustained trading above 55 month EMA and long trend falling trend line. Focus is now on 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). Decisive break there will confirm and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3862 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1764; (P) 1.1807; (R1) 1.1830; More…..

EUR/USD recovers mildly today but stays well inside range of 1.1711/1965. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. As long as 1.1711 support holds, further rise is mildly in favor. On the upside, break of 1.1965 will extend the whole rise from 1.0635. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 1.1711 should confirm short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.1561).

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has completed at 1.0635 already. Rise form 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally rise should be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1422 resistance turned support holds.

EUR/USD recovered after initial fall to 1.1300 last week. The break of 1.1430 minor resistance indicates short term bottoming, on mild bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week, for rebound to 1.1509 support turned resistance and possibly above. However, we’d expect upside to be limited below 1.1745 resistance. On the downside, break of 1.1300 support is now needed to confirm down trend resumption. Otherwise, near term outlook is neutral for more consolidation first.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 1.2555 medium term is in progress for 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. Note again that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Sustained break of 1.1186 could pave the way back to retest 1.0339 low. For now, outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779 holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance. Sustained trading below 55 week EMA adds bearishness to the case. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 should at least bring a retest on 1.0339 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1019; (P) 1.1031; (R1) 1.1045; More…

EUR/USD’s fall from 1.1175 is still in progress despite diminishing downside momentum. As noted before, corrective rebound from 1.0879 should have completed at 1.1175 already. Deeper decline would be seen to retest 1.0879 low. Break will resume larger down trend from 1.2555. On the upside, above 1.1043 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.1175 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, at this point, rebound from 1.0879 is seen as a corrective move first. in case of another rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.0879 at 1.1519. And, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) would resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1519 will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger rise to 61.8% retracement at 1.1915 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1035; (P) 1.1064; (R1) 1.1085; More…

EUR/USD’s break of 1.1051 minor support suggests resumption of fall from 1.1249. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.1026 low. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend from 1.2555, for 1.0813 fibonacci level next. On the upside, above 1.1093 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside and extend the consolidation from 1.1026. But near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.1249 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) is in progress and extending. Prior rejection of 55 week EMA also maintained bearishness. Further fall should be seen to 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.0813. Decisive break there will target 1.0339 (2017 low). On the upside, break of 1.1412 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1328; (P) 1.1361; (R1) 1.1391; More…..

EUR/USD drops sharply today and focus is now on 1.1267 support. Break will suggest that larger decline is resuming and target 1.1251 low next. Decisive break there will confirm this bearish case. EUR/USD should drop through 1.1186 fibonacci level to 61.8% projection of 1.2555 to 1.1300 from 1.1814 at 1.1038 next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1814 resistance holds, down trend down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. However, break of 1.1814 will confirm completion of such down trend and turn medium term outlook bullish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1724; (P) 1.1747; (R1) 1.1758; More…

EUR/USD’s decline extends to as low as 1.1715 so far today, and intraday bias remains on the downside. We’d look for strong support from 1.1602/1703 support zone to bring rebound. But break of 1.1907 resistance is needed to confirm short term bottoming. Otherwise, further fall is in favor even in case of recovery. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that it’s already reversing the trend from 1.1603, and target 61.8% retracement of 1.1603 to 1.2348 at 1.1289.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. Reaction from 1.2555 should reveal underlying long term momentum in the pair. However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1757; (P) 1.1786 (R1) 1.1800; More….

EUR/USD’s fall from 1.1960 extends to as low as 1.1742 so far. With 1.1712 support intact, we’re still treating it as a correction. Intraday bias stays neutral first. On the upside, above 1.1847 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.1960 first. Break will resume whole rise from 1.1553 and target 1.2091 high. However, decisive break of 1.1712 will indicate completion of the rise from 1.1553 and turn near term outlook bearish for this support.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is seen as a corrective move for the moment. Therefore, in case of another rally, we’d be expect 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 to limit upside and bring reversal. Meanwhile, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 1.1393) will suggest that such medium term rebound is completed and could then bring retest of 1.0339 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1899; (P) 1.1928; (R1) 1.1977; More….

EUR/USD’s rebound from 1.1703 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Firm break of 1.1988 resistance should affirm the case that correction from 1.2348 has completed at 1.1703. Further rally should then be seen to 1.2242 key resistance for confirmation. On the downside, below 1.1876 minor support will dampen the bullish case, and turn bias back to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1694.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. However, sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that whole rise from 1.10635 has completed. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0689; (P) 1.0710; (R1) 1.0745; More…

EUR/USD’s rebound from 1.0601 resumed by breaking through 1.0752 and intraday bias back on the upside. Strong break of 55 D EMA suggests that fall from 1.0980 has completed with three waves down to 1.0601. Further rally is expected and firm break of 100% projection of 1.0601 to 1.0752 from 1.0648 at 1.0799 will pave the way to 161.8% projection at 1.0892. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 1.0648 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern. Fall from 1.1138 is seen as the third leg and could have completed. Firm break of 1.1138 will argue that larger up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is ready to resume through 1.1274 high. On the downside, break of 1.0601 will extend the corrective pattern instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1626; (P) 1.1642; (R1) 1.1668; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is neutral for consolidations, but further rise is in favor with 1.1571 minor support intact. On the upside, sustained break of 55 day EMA (now at 1.1707) will be a sign that larger correction from 1.2348 has completed. Stronger rally would be seen to 1.1908 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, though, break of 1.1571 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.1523 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2348 should at least be a correction to rise from 1.0635 (2020 low). As long as 1.1908 resistance holds, deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289. Nevertheless break of 1.1908 resistance will revive medium term bullishness and turn focus back to 1.2348 high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0788; (P) 1.0836; (R1) 1.0870; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for now. Rejection by 4 hour 55 EMA is a sign of weakness. Focus in now on 1.0768 support. Break there will extend the decline from 1.1147 to retest 1.0635 low. On the upside, above 1.0990 will extend the corrective pattern from 1.0635 with another rebound. But upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 1.1496 to 1.0635 at 1.1167.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1496 resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) should still be in progress. Next target is 1.0339 (2017 low). However, sustained break of 1.1496 will argue that such down trend has completed. Rise from 1.0635 could then be seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339. In this case, outlook will be turned bullish for retesting 1.2555.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1202; (P) 1.1213; (R1) 1.1221; More…

EUR/USD drops further to as low as 1.1163 so far in early US session. Intraday bias remains on the downside for retesting 1.1107 low. At this point, we’re not expecting a break there yet. Thus, focus will be on bottoming signals around 1.1107. Though, break of 1.1282 resistance is needed to signal completion of fall from 1.1412. Otherwise, further decline is in favor even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, on the one hand, 1.1107 is seen as a medium term bottom on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. On the other hand, rejection by 55 week EMA retains medium term bearishness. Outlook stays neutral for now. On the downside, break of 1.1107 will resume the down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) to 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.0813. Meanwhile, break of 1.1412 will resume the rebound to 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1107 at 1.1660.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1950; (P) 1.1972; (R1) 1.1987; More….

No change in EUR/USD’s outlook as focus stays on 1.1988 resistance. Decisive break there should affirm the case that correction from 1.2348 has completed at 1.1703. Further rally should then be seen to retest 1.2242/2348 resistance zone. On the downside, below 1.1876 minor support will dampen the bullish case, and turn bias back to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1694.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. However, sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that whole rise from 1.10635 has completed. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1710; (P) 1.1730; (R1) 1.1744; More…

While EUR/USD is losing some downside momentum, further fall is still expected with 1.1788 minor resistance intact. Fall form 1.1908 would target 1.1663 support. Firm break there will resume the fall from 1.2265, and the pattern from 1.2348, to 1.1602 key support next. On the upside, above 1.1788 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.1908 again.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally remains in favors long as 1.1602 support holds, to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 and below.