Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1649; (P) 1.1695 (R1) 1.1777; More…

EUR/USD retreats mildly after hitting as high as 1.1776. But still, with 1.1612 minor support intact, intraday bias remains on the upside for further rise. Current medium term rally is expected to target 1.2 handle next. Nonetheless, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 1.1612 will indicate short term topping and bring lengthier consolidation first.

In the bigger picture, an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 1.1760) will pave the way to key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. While rise from 1.0339 is strong, there is no confirmation that it’s developing into a long term up trend yet. Hence, we’ll be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside. But for now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1295 support holds, in case of pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0551; (P) 1.0623; (R1) 1.0662; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 1.0693 will resume the rebound to 1.0764 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.1274 to 1.0447 at 1.0763). On the downside, break of 1.0522 support will retain near term bearishness for resuming the whole decline from 1.1274 through 1.0447 next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1274 medium term top could still be a correction to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). But chance of a complete trend reversal is rising. In either case, current fall should target 61.8% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0199 next. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 1.0684) holds, in case of rebound.

EUR/USD’s recovered to 1.1769 last week but struggled to sustain above 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.1721). Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 1.1612 will extend the fall from 1.2011. Intraday bias will be turned the downside for 38.2% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2011 at 1.1485, to corrective the whole rise from 1.0635. Though, on the upside, break of 1.1769 will argue that the correction have completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.2011 high instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally rise should be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1422 resistance turned support holds.

In the long term picture, the strong break of 55 month EMA is taken as a sign of long term trend reversal. Immediate focus will be on decade long trend line resistance (now at 1.1650). Sustained trading above there will add more credence to the case that down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) has finished at 1.0339. Further break of 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ) will confirm and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3862 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1710; (P) 1.1736 (R1) 1.1784; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside as the pull back from 1.1908 is still in progress. At this point, we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.1119 to 1.1908 at 1.1606 to bring rebound. But break of 1.1908 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, more consolidation would be seen in near term. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.1606 would bring deeper pull back to 61.8% retracement at 1.1420.

In the bigger picture, an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 1.1760) will pave the way to key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. While rise from 1.0339 is strong, there is no confirmation that it’s developing into a long term up trend yet. Hence, we’ll be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside. But for now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1295 support holds, in case of pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1635; (P) 1.1668; (R1) 1.1717; More…..

EUR/USD strengthens further today and focus is back on 1.1733 resistance Break will resume whole rebound from 1.1300. At this point, we’d still expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779 to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Break of 1.1617 minor support will turn bias back to the downside. Further break of 1.1525 support will indicate completion of this corrective rebound from 1.1300. However, firm break of 1.1779 will extend the rise to 100% projection of 1.1300 to 1.1733 from 1.1525 at 1.1958.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.1300, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and some consolidations would be seen. But still, note that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Thus, we’d expect fall from 1.2555 high to resume after consolidation completes. Below 1.1300 should send EUR/USD through 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. And, in that case, EUR/USD would head to retest 1.0339 (2017 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1019; (P) 1.1031; (R1) 1.1045; More…

EUR/USD’s fall from 1.1175 is still in progress despite diminishing downside momentum. As noted before, corrective rebound from 1.0879 should have completed at 1.1175 already. Deeper decline would be seen to retest 1.0879 low. Break will resume larger down trend from 1.2555. On the upside, above 1.1043 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.1175 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, at this point, rebound from 1.0879 is seen as a corrective move first. in case of another rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.0879 at 1.1519. And, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) would resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1519 will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger rise to 61.8% retracement at 1.1915 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0739; (P) 1.0793; (R1) 1.0829; More…

EUR/USD recovers mildly in early US session. But intraday bias stays on the downside with 1.0885 minor resistance intact. Current fall from 1.1147 would target a test on 1.0635 low next. On the upside, break of 1.0885 minor resistance could extend the consolidation from 1.0635 with another rise. But upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 1.1496 to 1.0635 at 1.1167.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1496 resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) should still be in progress. Next target is 1.0339 (2017 low). However, sustained break of 1.1496 will argue that such down trend has completed. Rise from 1.0635 could then be seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339. In this case, outlook will be turned bullish for retesting 1.2555.

EUR/USD stayed in sideway consolidation from 1.1509 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, decisive break of 1.1507 low will resume larger down trend from 1.2555 through 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447. On the upside, in case of stronger rebound, upside should be limited by 1.1851 resistance to bring fall resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance. Focus will now turn to 1.1553 support. Sustained break there would raise the chance of retesting 1.0339 low. It’s early to tell, but the chance of long term bullish reversal is fading.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0767; (P) 1.0794; (R1) 1.0810; More…

EUR/USD is staying in consolidation from 1.0777 temporary low an intraday bias remains neutral. Upside of recovery should be limited well below 1.0992 support turned resistance. On the downside, break of 1.0777 will resume recent down trend.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has just resumed and prior rejection by 55 week EMA affirms medium term bearishness. Sustained break of 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.0813 will pave the way to retest 1.0339 low. For now, outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.1239 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1361; (P) 1.1381; (R1) 1.1415; More…..

EUR/USD weakest mildly today but it’s after all, staying in range of 1.1267/1472. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, decisive break of 1.1472 resistance will complete a head and shoulder bottom pattern (ls: 1.1302; h: 1.1215; rs: 1.1267). That will indicate near term reversal and bring stronger rise back to 1.1814 resistance. On the downside, below 1.1267 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.1215 low.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1814 resistance is now needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2335; (P) 1.2383 (R1) 1.2431; More….

EUR/USD’s consolidation from 1.2537 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. As long as 1.2222 support holds, near term outlook remains bullish. On the upside, sustained break of 1.2494/2516 resistance zone will extend recent rally to 100% projection of 1.0569 to 1.2091 from 1.1553 at 1.3075 next. However, break of 1.2222 will indicate rejection from 1.2494/2516, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, and turn near term outlook bearish for 1.1915 support first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. But key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 is looking vulnerable. Sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862. Nonetheless, rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0108; (P) 1.0150 (R1) 1.0227; More…

EUR/USD’s fall resumes after brief consolidations. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Current down trend should target 100% projection of 1.1184 to 1.0348 from 1.0773 at 0.9937, which is close to parity. On the upside, break of 1.0189 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again. But outlook stays bearish as long as 1.0358 support turned resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 1.0090 will pave the way to 100% projection at 0.8694. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0773 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1433; (P) 1.1458; (R1) 1.1479; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral for some consolidation below 1.1482 temporary top. While further rally cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2265 to 1.1185 at 1.1598 to finish the corrective rise from 1.1185. On the downside, below 1.1284 support will bring retest of 1.1185 low. However, sustained break of 1.1598 will argue that the trend is reversing already.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways of interpreting the fall from 1.2348 (2021 high). It could be a correction to rise from 1.0635 (2020 low), the fourth leg of a sideway pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low), or resuming long term down trend. In any case, outlook will now stay bearish as long as 1.1703 support turned resistance holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 would pave the way back to 1.0635.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1356; (P) 1.1416; (R1) 1.1454; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside at the moment. Fall from 1.1814 has just resumed and should target 1.1300 low. Decisive break there will resume whole down trend from 1.2555. On the upside, above 1.1476 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will remain cautiously bearish as long as 1.1621 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 1.1300 could have completed at 1.1814 after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779. Decisive break of 1.1300 will resume the down trend from 1.2555 to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1814 will delay the bearish case and extend the correction from 1.1300 with another rise before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1712; (P) 1.1755; (R1) 1.1785; More…..

As noted before, the corrective rise from 1.1300 should have completed at 1.1814, after meeting strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.1525 support first. Break will confirm this bearish case and target a test on 1.1300 low. On the upside, again, sustained break of 1.1779 will dampen our view and extend the rise from 1.1300.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.1300, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and some consolidations would be seen. But still, note that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Thus, we’d expect fall from 1.2555 high to resume after consolidation completes. Below 1.1300 should send EUR/USD through 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. And, in that case, EUR/USD would head to retest 1.0339 (2017 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1238; (P) 1.1262; (R1) 1.1279; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral with 4 hour MACD crossed below signal line. A temporary top is formed at 1.1285. On the upside, above 1.1285 will extend the rebound from 1.1193 to 1.1412 resistance. Break will resume the whole choppy rise from 1.1107. On the downside, break of 1.1193 will turn bias back to the downside to retest 1.1107 low instead.

In the bigger picture, bullish convergence condition in daily and weekly MACD suggests that 1.1107 is a medium term bottom. However, rejection by 55 EMA retains medium term bearish. Outlook will be neutral for now. On the downside, break of 1.1107 will resume the down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) to 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.0813. Meanwhile, break of 1.1412 will resume the rebound to 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1107 at 1.1660.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1884; (P) 1.1913; (R1) 1.1940; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays mildly on the upside for further rally. Decisive break of 1.2011 high will resume whole rally from 1.0635 low. On the downside, though, break of 1.1800 support will turn bias to the downside, to extend the consolidation pattern from 1.2011 with another falling leg.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1422 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0695; (P) 1.0720; (R1) 1.0733; More…

EUR/USD’s fall from 1.1094 continues today and intraday bias stays on the downside. This decline is seen as correcting whole up trend from 0.9534, and should target 1.0515 cluster support, 38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1094 at 1.0498. On the upside, however, above 1.0757 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0515 support holds, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) would still extend higher. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 will solidify the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next (2021 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0768; (P) 1.0788; (R1) 1.0809; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. Further rally is in favor as long as 1.0723 minor support holds. On the upside, break of 1.0810 will resume the rebound from 1.0601 to 1.0884 resistance next. However, firm break of 1.0723 will argue that the rebound has completed, and turn bias to the downside for 1.0648 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern. Fall from 1.1138 is seen as the third leg and could have completed. Firm break of 1.1138 will argue that larger up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is ready to resume through 1.1274 high. On the downside, break of 1.0601 will extend the corrective pattern instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0495; (P) 1.0544 (R1) 1.0596; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.0470. Upside of recovery should be limited by 1.0756 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. Break of 1.0470 will target 161.8% projection of 1.1494 to 1.0805 from 1.1184 at 1.0069.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.2348 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 1.1185 support turned resistance holds. The break of 1.0635 (2020 low) now raises the chance that it’s resuming long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). Retest of 1.0339 (2017 low) low should be seen next. Decisive break there will confirm this bearish case.