Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1243; (P) 1.1284; (R1) 1.1308; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside at this point. Fall from 1.1448 is target 1.1176 low. Decisive break there will resume whole decline from 1.2555. On the upside, however, break of 1.1331 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.1448 instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlooks is a bit mixed for now as there are conflicting signals. We’ll turn neutral first. On the downside, decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2016 low) to 1.2555 (2018 high) at 1.1186 will resume the whole down trend from 1.2555. Next target will be 1.0339 low. Nevertheless, break of 1.1569 resistance should confirm medium term bottoming. Stronger rebound should be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1176 at 1.1703. In that case, the structure of the rise from 1.1176 and reaction to 1.1703 fibonacci level will be watched for making an assessment on whether medium term trend has reversed, or rebound form 1.1176 is merely a correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0920; (P) 1.0966; (R1) 1.1002; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 1.0911 will resume the fall from 1.1274 to 1.0832 support. Sustained trading below there will target 1.0609/34 cluster support. However, firm break of 1.1046 minor resistance will argue that pull back from 1.1274 has completed, and bring stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top could be formed at 1.1274, after failing to break through 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 decisively, on bearish divergence condition in D MACD. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.0966) will bring deeper correction to 1.0634 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0609). Strong support could be seen there, at least on first attempt, to set the range for consolidation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1794; (P) 1.1816; (R1) 1.1861; More…

Further decline is still expected in EUR/USD with 1.1880 resistance intact. Current decline from 1.2265, as the third leg of correction from 1.2348, could target 1.1703 support. On the upside, though, break of 1.1880 resistance should indicate short term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound to 1.1974 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. Reaction from 1.2555 should reveal underlying long term momentum in the pair. However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0964; (P) 1.0995; (R1) 1.1023; More…

EUR/USD is staying in consolidation from 1.0926 and intraday bias stays neutral. In case of another recovery, upside should be limited by 1.1164 resistance. On the downside, sustained break of 1.0926 will resume lager down trend from 1.2555 for 1.0813 fibonacci level next. However, decisive break of 1.1164 will be an early indication of larger reversal and target 1.1249 resistance.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) is in progress. Prior rejection of 55 week EMA also maintained bearishness. Further fall should be seen to 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.0813. Decisive break there will target 1.0339 (2017 low). On the upside, break of 1.1412 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0706; (P) 1.0735; (R1) 1.0760; More…

EUR/USD’s fall from 1.1274 resumed by breaking through 1.0685 temporary low today. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.0609/34 cluster support zone next. On the upside, break of 1.0767 resistance will now indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound to 1.0944 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1274 medium term top is seen as a correction to up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low). Strong support could be seen from 1.0634 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0609) to bring rebound, at least on first attempt. Break of 1.0944 will indicate the start of the second leg, and target retest of 1.1274. However, sustained break of 1.0609/0634 will raise the chance of bearish trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.0199.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1752; (P) 1.1773; (R1) 1.1785; More….

EUR/USD drops to as low as 1.1726 so far, and intraday bias remains on the downside. Corrective fall from 1.2348 should target 38.2% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1694 and possibly below. But we’d expect strong support from 1.1062 to contain downside to complete the correction from 1.2348. On the upside, above 1.1804 minor resistance will turn neutral first. But break of 1.1988 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. We’d be alerted to topping sign around 1.2516/55. But sustained break there will carry long term bullish implications.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1020; (P) 1.1032; (R1) 1.1056; More…

EUR/USD’s rally continues today and hit as high as 1.0749 so far. Intraday bias remain son the upside for retesting 1.1274 high. Strong resistance should be seen from there to limit upside, at least on first attempt. On the downside, below 1.1027 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But further rally will remain in favor as long as 1.0722 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is seen as the second leg. While further rally could cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.0722 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 1.0447 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1433; (P) 1.1458; (R1) 1.1479; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside as rebound from 1.1185 is still in progress. Further rise would target 38.2% retracement of 1.2265 to 1.1185 at 1.1598. As we’re tentatively treating is as a corrective move, we’d look for strong resistance from 1.1598 to bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 1.1284 support will bring retest of 1.1185 low. However, sustained break of 1.1598 will argue that the trend is reversing already.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways of interpreting the fall from 1.2348 (2021 high). It could be a correction to rise from 1.0635 (2020 low), the fourth leg of a sideway pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low), or resuming long term down trend. In any case, outlook will now stay bearish as long as 1.1703 support turned resistance holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 would pave the way back to 1.0635.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0795; (P) 1.0823; (R1) 1.0843; More…

EUR/USD is still struggling in tight range, limited by 1.0895 minor resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Price actions from 1.0635 are seen as a corrective pattern, which might extend further. On the upside, above 1.0895 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for 1.1019 resistance. But in that case, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 1.1496 to 1.0635 at 1.1167. On the downside, break of 1.0727 will target a test on 1.0635 low.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1496 resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) should still be in progress. Next target is 1.0339 (2017 low). However, sustained break of 1.1496 will argue that such down trend has completed. Rise from 1.0635 could then be seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339. In this case, outlook will be turned bullish for retesting 1.2555.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0418; (P) 1.0459 (R1) 1.0528; More…..

The break of 1.0489 minor resistance turns intraday bias in EUR/USD neutral again with focus back on 1.0652 resistance. As long as 1.0652 holds, outlook stays bearish and another decline is expected. Break of 1.0339 will extend the larger down trend to parity next. However, break of 1.0652 will now confirm short term bottoming and turn near term outlook bullish for stronger rebound to 1.0872 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, break of 1.0461 key support indicates that consolidation from there has completed as a triangle at 1.1298. And, the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is resuming. Current downtrend is now expected to target 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1344; (P) 1.1393; (R1) 1.1424; More…..

EUR/USD’s strong rise and break of 1.1443 resistance indicates resumption of rebound from 1.1215. Also, considering bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, it’s taken as an early sign of bullish reversal. Intraday bias is now on the upside for 100% projection of 1.1215 to 1.1472 from 1.1270 at 1.1527 first. Break will target 161.8% projection at 1.1686 next. On the downside, however, break of 1.1364 will suggest that the rebound is completed and turn bias back to the downside for 1.1215 low.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1814 resistance holds, down trend down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. However, break of 1.1814 will confirm completion of such down trend and turn medium term outlook bullish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1218; (P) 1.1340; (R1) 1.1405; More…

EUR/USD is staying in consolidation from 1.1496 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise is in favor as long as 1.1095 support holds. Sustained break of 1.1496 will pave the way to next fibonacci level at 1.1876. However, break of 1.1096 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.0777 low.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should have formed at 1.0777 after drawing support from 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.0813. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.0777 at 1.1456 will raise the chance of medium term bullish reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.1876. Rejection by 1.1456 will suggests that price actions from 1.0777 are merely a correction. Another fall below 1.0777 low would be seen at a later stage in this case.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1507; (P) 1.1544; (R1) 1.1584; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.1504 temporary low. Another recovery could be seen to 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.1637). But upside should be limited well below 1.1814 resistance to bring another decline. We maintain the view that corrective rise from 1.1300 has completed with three waves up to 1.1814 already. Below 1.1504 will target a test on 1.1300 low first.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.1300, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and some consolidations would be seen. But still, note that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Thus, we’d expect fall from 1.2555 high to resume after consolidation completes. Below 1.1300 should send EUR/USD through 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. And, in that case, EUR/USD would head to retest 1.0339 (2017 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1882; (P) 1.1900; (R1) 1.1930; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. Further rise is in favor with 1.1821 minor support intact. Above 1.1926 will resume the rebound from 1.1703 to 1.1988 resistance. Firm break there should affirm the case that correction from 1.2348 has completed at 1.1703. On the downside, however, break of 1.1821 will turn bias back to the downside back to 38.2% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1694.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. However, sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that whole rise from 1.10635 has completed. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289.

EUR/USD’s break of 1.1422 last week suggests resumption of whole rise from 1.0635. Though, as a temporary top was formed at 1.1452, initial bias is neutral this week first. on the upside, break of 1.1452 will target 1.1496 key resistance. Firm break there will carry larger bullish implications and target 61.8% projection of 1.0774 to 1.1422 from 1.1168 at 1.1568 next. On the downside, break of 1.1325 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.1168 support. Decisive break there will indicate near term bearish reversal.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1496 resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) should still be in progress. Next target is 1.0339 (2017 low). However, sustained break of 1.1496 will argue that such down trend has completed. Rise from 1.0635 could then be seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339. In this case, outlook will be turned bullish for retesting 1.2555.

In the long term picture, outlook remains bearish for now as it’s staying below 55 month EMA, as well as decade long falling trend line. Down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in favor to extend through 1.0339 down the road. However, sustained trading above 55 month EMA will firstly suggest that fall from 1.2555 has completed. It would also be an early indication on long term bullish reversal. Focus would be back on 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1813; (P) 1.1857; (R1) 1.1880; More…

Range trading continues in EUR/USD above 1.1751 short term bottom. On the upside, above 1.1907 will resume the rebound to 1.1974 resistance first. Firm break there should argue that whole corrective pattern from 1.2348 has completed. On the downside, however, break of 1.1751 will resume the fall from 1.2265 to 1.1703 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. Reaction from 1.2555 should reveal underlying long term momentum in the pair. However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1287; (P) 1.1327; (R1) 1.1366; More…

Outlook in EUR/USD is unchanged and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, firm break of 1.1482 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.2348 to 1.1120 at 1.1589 next. Sustained break there will argue that whole fall from 1.2348 has completed too and target 61.8% retracement at 1.1879. On the downside, however, break of 1.1265 support will dampen this bullish view and bring retest of 1.1120 low instead.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.2348 (2021 high) is seen as a leg inside the range pattern from 1.2555 (2018 high). Sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 1.1593) will argue that it has completed and stronger rise would be seen back towards top of the range between 1.2348 and 1.2555. However, firm break of 1.0635 (2020 low) will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption and target a retest on 1.0339 (2017 low) next.

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for 1.1960 resistance. Break will resume whole rally from 1.1553 and target 1.2091 high. On the downside, break of 1.1816 minor support is needed to indicate completion of the rebound form 1.1717. Otherwise, near term outlook will stay cautiously bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is seen as a corrective move for the moment. Therefore, in case of another rally, we’d be expect 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 to limit upside and bring reversal. Meanwhile, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 1.1435) will suggest that such medium term rebound is completed and could then bring retest of 1.0339 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0599; (P) 1.0665; (R1) 1.0708; More…

No change in EUR/USD’s outlook and intraday bias stays on the downside. Current fall is part of the decline from 1.1138. Next target is 100% projection of 1.1138 to 1.0694 from 1.0980 at 1.0536 next. On the upside, above 1.0723 support turned resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Current fall from 1.1138 is seen as the third leg. While deeper decline is would be seen to 1.0447 and possibly below. Strong support should emerge from 61.8% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0199 to complete the correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1808; (P) 1.1872 (R1) 1.1913; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for 1.1661 support. Fall from 1.2091 is corrective whole rise from 1.0569. Break of 1.1661 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.0569 to 1.2091 at 1.1510, where we’re expecting support to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.2029 resistance is needed to confirm completion of the pull back. Otherwise, deeper fall will remain in favor as the correction develops.

In the bigger picture, rise from medium term bottom at 1.0339 is still in progress for 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. However, it should be noted that there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, such rebound from 1.0399 could be a correction. And the long term fall from 1.6039 (2008 high) could resume. Hence, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside. But after all, break of 1.1661 is needed to indicate medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of pull back.