EUR/USD’s rebounded to 1.0944 last week, but was rejected by 55 D EMA (now at 1.0924) and fell sharply since then. The development keeps near term outlook bearish. Immediate focus is now on 1.0764 support this week, firm break there will resume whole decline from 1.1274 to 1.0609/34 cluster support next. Meanwhile, further decline will be in favor as long as 1.0944 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1274 medium term top is seen as a correction to up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low). Deeper decline would be seen to 1.0634 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0609). Strong support could be seen there, at least on first attempt, to bring rebound. Yet, medium term outlook will be neutral for now, as long as 1.1274 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, focus stays on 55 M EMA (now at 1.1124). Rejection by this EMA will revive long term bearishness. However, sustained break above here will be affirm the case of long term bullish reversal and target 1.2348 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0844; (P) 1.0856; (R1) 1.0871; More…

EUR/USD is staying in range below 1.0894 and intraday bias stays neutral. More consolidations could still be seen. On the upside, break of 1.0894 will resume the rally from 1.0601 to 1.0980 resistance next. However, break of 1.0804 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.0752 resistance turned support.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern. Fall from 1.1138 is seen as the third leg and could have completed. Firm break of 1.1138 will argue that larger up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is ready to resume through 1.1274 high. On the downside, break of 1.0601 will extend the corrective pattern instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0537; (P) 1.0592; (R1) 1.0702; More…

Immediate focus is now on 1.0733 resistance in EUR/USD. Firm break there will resume whole rally from 0.9534. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 0.9630 to 1.0733 from 1.0482 at 1.1164. For now, outlook will continue stay bullish as long as 1.0482 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.0609. Rejection by 1.0609 will suggest that price actions from 0.9534 medium term bottom are developing into a corrective pattern. Thus, medium bearishness is retained for another fall through 0.9534 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.0609 will raise the chance of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.1273.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1560; (P) 1.1599; (R1) 1.1664; More…..

EUR/USD’s rally is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Rebound from 1.1300 is expected to target 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779. We’d expect upside to be limited there, at least on initial attempt, to bring near term reversal. On the downside, below 1.1529 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.1300 low. But after all, consolidation from 1.1300 will extend for a while before completion.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.1300, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and some consolidations would be seen. But still, note that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Thus, we’d expect fall from 1.2555 high to resume after consolidation completes. Below 1.1300 should send EUR/USD through 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. And, in that case, EUR/USD would head to retest 1.0339 (2017 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1783; (P) 1.1797; (R1) 1.1810; More…

EUR/USD’s break of 1.1804 resistance should now confirm short term bottoming at 1.1663, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.1907 resistance first. Firm break there will indicate that fall from 1.2265, as well as the consolidation pattern from 1.2348, have completed. Near term outlook will be turned bullish for 1.2265/2348 resistance On the downside, break of 1.1734 minor support will turn focus back to 1.1602/1703 key support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally remains in favors long as 1.1602 support holds, to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1371; (P) 1.1388; (R1) 1.1407; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. Further decline is expected as long as 1.1489 minor resistance holds. We’re holding on to the case that corrective rise from 1.1215 has completed earlier than expected at 1.1569. Deeper fall should be seen to 1.1307 support. Break there will likely resume larger down trend from 1.2555 through 1.1215 low. On the upside, above 1.1489 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.1569 instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1814 resistance holds, down trend down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. However, break of 1.1814 will confirm completion of such down trend and turn medium term outlook bullish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1665; (P) 1.1710; (R1) 1.1735; More…

EUR/USD’s fall from 1.1908 is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.1663 low. Decisive break there will resume the fall from 1.2265, and the pattern from 1.2348, to 1.1602 key support next. On the upside, above 1.1788 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.1908 again.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally remains in favors long as 1.1602 support holds, to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 and below.

EUR/USD dropped sharply to 1.1716 last week before forming a temporary low there and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Current development suggests that decline from 1.2091 is correcting whole rise from 1.0569. Deeper fall is expected as long as 1.22029 resistance holds. Below 1.1716 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.0569 to 1.2091 at 1.1510, where we’re expecting support to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, rise from medium term bottom at 1.0339 is not finished yet. It’s expected to continue after pull back from 1.2091 completes. And, next target will be 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. However, it should be noted that there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, such rebound from 1.0399 could be a correction. And the long term fall from 1.6039 (2008 high) could resume. Hence, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside.

In the long term picture, 1.0339 is now seen as an important bottom as the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) could have completed. It’s still early to decide whether price action form 1.0339 is developing into a corrective or impulsive move. But in either case, further rally would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1327; (P) 1.1352 (R1) 1.1368; More…..

EUR/USD is staying in consolidation from 1.1444 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Downside of retreat should be contained by 1.1291 support to bring rise resumption. Break of 1.1444 will extend the rally from 1.0339 low to 1.1615 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, the firm break of 1.1298 resistance further affirm medium term reversal. That is an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Further rise would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 1.1776). Sustained break there will pave the way to 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 next. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.1118 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1318; (P) 1.1344; (R1) 1.1364; More…..

EUR/USD lost momentum after hitting 1.1371 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the upside, above 1.1371 will extend the rebound from 1.1234, towards 1.1514 resistance. On the downside, though, break of 1.1275 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.1215 low instead. Decisive break there will confirm completion of consolidation from 1.1215, and resumption of down trend from 1.2555.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1814 resistance holds, down trend down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. However, break of 1.1814 will confirm completion of such down trend and turn medium term outlook bullish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0880; (P) 1.0901 (R1) 1.0920; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.0949 temporary top continues. With 1.0777 minor support intact, further rise is still expected. But still, choppy rebound from 1.0339 is seen as a correction. Hence we’d look for topping again on next rise. Meanwhile, on the downside, break of 1.0777 will turn turn bias to the downside for 1.0569 support first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1298 key resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still expected to continue. Break of 1.0339 low will send EUR/USD through parity to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. However, considering bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD, break of 1.1298 will indicate term reversal. This would also be supported by sustained trading above 55 week EMA.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0857; (P) 1.0881; (R1) 1.0897; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remain son the downside for the moment as fall from 1.0980 is in progress. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.0856) will argue that rebound from 1.0694 has completed and bring retest of this low. On the upside, above 1.0905 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is seen as the second leg. While further rally could cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.0694 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 1.0447 and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0914; (P) 1.0967; (R1) 1.1008; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as range trading continues. Further decline is still expected with 1.1120 support turned resistance intact. On the downside, firm break of 61.8% projection of 1.2265 to 1.1120 from 1.1494 at 1.0786 will pave they way to 100% projection at 1.0349 next. However, strong break of 1.1120 will confirm short term bottoming, at least, and bring stronger rebound back towards 1.1494 structural resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.2348 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 1.1494 resistance holds. Firm break of 1.0635 (2020 low) will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption and target a retest on 1.0339 (2017 low) next. Nevertheless, break of 1.1494 will maintain medium term neutral outlook, and extend range trading first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1837; (P) 1.1879; (R1) 1.1946; More…..

Range trading continues in EUR/USD and intraday bias remains neutral first. Further rise is in favor and break of 1.1965 will resume whole rise from 1.0635. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 1.1711 should confirm short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.1592).

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has completed at 1.0635 already. Rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally rise should be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1422 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1012; (P) 1.1026; (R1) 1.1044; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.0992 temporary low. Upside should be limited by 1.1085 support turned resistance. On the downside, decisive break of 1.0981 support should confirm completion of corrective rise from 1.0879 at 1.1239. Further fall should then be seen to retest 1.0879 low.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 1.0879 is seen as a corrective move at this point. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.0879 at 1.1519. And, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) would resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1519 will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger rise to 61.8% retracement at 1.1915 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0973; (P) 1.0995; (R1) 1.1026; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral first and further decline is in favor. On the downside, break of 1.0911 will resume the fall from 1.1274 to 1.0832 support. Sustained trading below there will target 1.0609/34 cluster support. However, firm break of 1.1046 minor resistance will argue that pull back from 1.1274 has completed, and bring stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top could be formed at 1.1274, after failing to break through 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 decisively, on bearish divergence condition in D MACD. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.0966) will bring deeper correction to 1.0634 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0609). Strong support could be seen there, at least on first attempt, to set the range for consolidation.

EUR/USD dipped to 1.1612 last week but recovered well ahead of 1.1507 low. The lack of downside momentum suggests that consolidation from 1.1507 is extending. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Above 1.1695 will bring another recovery, possibly through 1.1790. But upside should be limited by 1.1851 resistance to bring fall resumption eventually. On the downside, below 1.1612 will bring retest of 1.1507 low first. Decisive break there will resume larger fall from 1.2555. In that case, EUR/USD should drop through 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447 to 61.8% retracement at 1.1186.

In the bigger picture, EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance. Focus will now turn to 1.1553 support. Sustained break there would raise the chance of retesting 1.0339 low. It’s early to tell, but the chance of long term bullish reversal is fading.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1019; (P) 1.1031; (R1) 1.1045; More…

EUR/USD is losing some downside momentum. But intraday bias stays on the downside for further fall for now. Corrective rebound from 1.0879 should have completed at 1.1175 already. Deeper decline would be seen to retest 1.0879 low. Break will resume larger down trend from 1.2555. On the upside, though, above 1.1092 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, at this point, rebound from 1.0879 is seen as a corrective move first. in case of another rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.0879 at 1.1519. And, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) would resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1519 will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger rise to 61.8% retracement at 1.1915 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0849; (P) 1.0901; (R1) 1.0998; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside at this point. Rise from 1.0634 is in progress to retest 1.1094 high. Decisive break there will confirm resumption of whole up trend from 0.9534. On the downside, below 1.0863 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0515 support holds, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) would still extend higher. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 will solidify the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next (2021 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0851; (P) 1.0917; (R1) 1.0956; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.1016 is extending. As long as 1.0851 support holds, further rally is still expected. On the upside, firm break of 1.1016 will resume the rise from 1.0447 to 1.1274 resistance next. But strong resistance should be seen there to limit upside. However, sustained break of 1.0851 will confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for deeper fall.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is tentatively seen as the second leg. Hence while further rally could be seen, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern.