Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2159; (P) 1.2206; (R1) 1.2282; More….

EUR/USD is staying in consolidation from 1.2272 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, break of 1.2272 will resume larger rally to 61.8% projection of 1.0635 to 1.2011 from 1.1602 at 1.2452 next. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 1.2058 will bring deeper correction instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. We’d be alerted to topping sign around 1.2516/55. But sustained break there will carry long term bullish implications.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1588; (P) 1.1656; (R1) 1.1690; More…..

EUR/USD is staying below 1.1721 and intraday bias remains neutral. Rebound from 1.1300 could extend through 1.1733 resistance. But we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779 to limit upside, at least on first attempt, to bring near term reversal. On the downside, break of 1.1525 support will indicate completion of this corrective rebound. Retest of 1.1300 low should then be seen. However, firm break of 1.1779 will extend the rise to 100% projection of 1.1300 to 1.1733 from 1.1525 at 1.1958.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.1300, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and some consolidations would be seen. But still, note that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Thus, we’d expect fall from 1.2555 high to resume after consolidation completes. Below 1.1300 should send EUR/USD through 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. And, in that case, EUR/USD would head to retest 1.0339 (2017 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0000; (P) 1.0037; (R1) 1.0074; More…

EUR/USD’s fall continues today and intraday bias stays on the downside. Firm break of 100% projection of 1.1184 to 1.0348 from 1.0773 at 0.9937 could prompt downside acceleration to 161.8% projection at 0.9420. On the upside, break of 1.0121 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0348 support turned resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0773 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1148; (P) 1.1208 (R1) 1.1241; More….

A temporary top is in place at 1.1267 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Overall, we’d stay cautious on strong resistance from 1.1245/98 (138.2% projection of 1.0339 to 1.0828 from 1.0569 at 1.1245) resistance zone to limit upside and bring reversal. But decisive break of 1.1298 will carry larger bullish implication and target 1.1615 resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 1.1020 resistance turned support will indicate rejection from 1.1245/98 and turn bias to the downside for 1.0838 support first.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up with EUR/USD now far above 55 week EMA. Also, bullish convergence condition is seen in weekly MACD. Focus will now be on 1.1298 key resistance. Rejection from there will maintain medium term bearishness and would extend the whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). However, firm break of 1.1298 will indicate reversal. In such case, further rally would be seen back to 1.2042 support turned resistance next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1307; (P) 1.1345; (R1) 1.1367; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains mildly on the downside at this point. Fall from 1.1472 is in progress for retesting 1.1215 support first. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend for 1.1186 fibonacci level next. On the upside, above 1.1421 minor resistance will turn intraday bias back to the upside for 1.1499 resistance. Firm break there will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bullish for 1.1814 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 medium term top has just resumed and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1814 resistance is now needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1702; (P) 1.1738 (R1) 1.1780; More…

Since 1.1832 minor resistance remains intact, deeper decline is in favor in EUR/USD. Fall from 1.2091 would extend through 1.1661 support. Decline from 1.2091 is correcting whole rise from 1.0569. Deeper fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.0569 to 1.2091 at 1.1510, where we’re expecting support to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.1832 minor resistance will suggest that the corrective fall is completed and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, rise from medium term bottom at 1.0339 is not finished yet. It’s expected to continue after pull back from 1.2091 completes. And, next target will be 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. However, it should be noted that there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, such rebound from 1.0399 could be a correction. And the long term fall from 1.6039 (2008 high) could resume. Hence, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1676; (P) 1.1725; (R1) 1.1758; More…..

EUR/USD’s fall from 1.2011 is still in progress and intraday bias on the downside, for 38.2% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2011 at 1.1485. On the upside, though, break of 1.1871 resistance will revive near term bullishness and bring retest of 1.2011 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally rise should be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1422 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1652; (P) 1.1685 (R1) 1.1715; More…..

EUR/USD continues to be bounded in consolidation from 1.1509 and intraday bias stays neutral. Stronger recovery cannot be ruled out as the consolidation extends. But in that case, upside should be limited by 1.1851 resistance to bring fall resumption eventually. On the downside , firm break of 1.1507 will resume larger down trend through 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447.

In the bigger picture, EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1202; (P) 1.1248; (R1) 1.1289; More….

No change in EUR/USD’s outlook and intraday bias stays neutral first. On the downside, break of 1.1212 will resume the fall from 1.1422 to 38.2% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.1422 at 1.1121. Sustained break there will argue that whole rebound from 1.0635 has completed and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.0936. On the upside, break of 1.1422 will resume whole rebound from 1.0635 and target 1.1495 key resistance next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1496 resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) should still be in progress. Next target is 1.0339 (2017 low). However, sustained break of 1.1496 will argue that such down trend has completed. Rise from 1.0635 could then be seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339. In this case, outlook will be turned bullish for retesting 1.2555.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1068; (P) 1.1083; (R1) 1.1093; More…

EUR/USD is staying in consolidation and intraday bias remains neutral first. Another recovery cannot be ruled out, but upside should be limited by 1.1249 resistance to bring down trend resumption. Break of 1.1051 will target 1.1026 low and below. However, sustained break of 1.1249 will have 55 day EMA taken out too. Stronger rise should then be seen to 1.1412 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) is in progress and extending. Prior rejection of 55 week EMA also maintained bearishness. Further fall should be seen to 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.0813. Decisive break there will target 1.0339 (2017 low). On the upside, break of 1.1412 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0932; (P) 1.0961; (R1) 1.1017; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside at this point. Current rise from 1.0634 should target a test on 1.1094 high. Decisive break there will confirm resumption of whole up trend from 0.9534. However, firm break of 1.0891 will extend the corrective pattern from 1.1094 with another falling leg, targeting 1.0634 and below.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0515 support holds, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) would still extend higher. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 will solidify the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next (2021 high).

EUR/USD edged higher to 1.2413 last week but reversed well ahead of near term falling trend line. Initial bias is now on 1.2214 support his week. Decisive break there will revive the case of medium term reversal. In that case, deeper fall would be seen to 1.2154 first. Firm break there will confirm and target 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 next. On the upside, break of 1.2413 will turn focus back to 1.2555 high.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862 in medium term.

In the long term picture, 1.0339 is seen as an important bottom as the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) could have completed. It’s still early to decide whether price action from 1.0339 is developing into a corrective or impulsive pattern. Reaction to 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 will give important clue to the underlying momentum.

EUR/USD dropped further to 1.1215 last week be recovered ahead of 1.1186 long term fibonacci level. For now such recovery is seen as a corrective move. Initial bias remains neutral this week and upside should be limited by 1.1499 resistance. On the downside, below 1.1270 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 1.1215 and then 1.1186. However, firm break of 1.1499 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bullish for 1.1814 resistance again.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 medium term top has just resumed and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1814 resistance is now needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong rebound.

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 should at least bring a retest on 1.0339 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1643; (P) 1.1680; (R1) 1.1709; More…..

EUR/USD is still staying in range below 1.1733 and intraday bias remains neutral. Rebound from 1.1300 is seen as a corrective move. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779 to bring near term reversal. On the downside, break of 1.1617 minor support will turn bias back to the downside. Further break of 1.1525 support will indicate completion of this corrective rebound from 1.1300. However, firm break of 1.1779 will extend the rise to 100% projection of 1.1300 to 1.1733 from 1.1525 at 1.1958.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.1300, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and some consolidations would be seen. But still, note that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Thus, we’d expect fall from 1.2555 high to resume after consolidation completes. Below 1.1300 should send EUR/USD through 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. And, in that case, EUR/USD would head to retest 1.0339 (2017 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1217; (P) 1.1263; (R1) 1.1322; More…..

EUR/USD’s rebound from 1.1107 resumes after brief consolidation and breaks 1.1309 temporary top. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Further rally should be seen towards 1.1448 key resistance next. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. On the downside, break of 1.1200 support is needed to confirm completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise will remain in favor in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) might still be in progress. Such decline would target 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 (2016 low) to 1.2555 (2018 high) at 1.0813 on resumption. However, break of 1.1448 resistance would confirm medium term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. In such case, stronger rebound should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1107 at 1.1660. We’d look at the structure of the rebound to decide whether it’s a corrective rise later.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9886; (P) 0.9932; (R1) 1.0013; More…

Immediate focus is now on 0.9998 resistance in EUR/USD. Decisive break there will confirm resumption of rebound from 0.9534. More importantly, that should also indicate medium term bottoming at 0.9534, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Stronger rise should then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.1494 to 0.9534 at 1.0283. On the downside, break of 0.9630 will resume larger down trend through 0.9534 instead.

In the bigger picture, the case of medium term bottoming at 0.9534 building up. While it is too early to call for trend reversal, firm break of 0.9998 will open up stronger rebound back to 55 week EMA (now at 1.0630) even as a corrective rise. Meanwhile, firm break of 0.9534 will resume larger down trend to 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0897; (P) 1.0959; (R1) 1.0999; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside at tis point. Current fall from 1.1274 would target 1.0832 support. Sustained trading below there will target 1.0609/34 cluster support. On the upside, however, break of 1.1046 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound instead.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top could be formed at 1.1274, after failing to break through 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 decisively, on bearish divergence condition in D MACD. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.0963) will bring deeper correction to 1.0634 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0609). Strong support could be seen there, at least on first attempt, to set the range for consolidation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1563; (P) 1.1620 (R1) 1.1720; More…..

EUR/USD’s recovery from 1.1509 extend to 1.1724 so far and breached 4 hour 55 EMA. Further rise cannot be ruled out. But upside should be limited by 1.1822/1995 resistance zone to bring fall resumption. Below 1.1509 will target 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447 first. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.1186 next.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0846; (P) 1.0890 (R1) 1.0916; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains mildly on the downside for the moment. A short term top is in place at 1.1020 on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Deeper decline would be seen back to 55 day EMA (now at 1.0757) first. As noted before, rise from 1.0339 is seen as a corrective move. Break of 55 day EMA will affirm the case that such correction is completed and bring deeper decline to 1.0569 for confirmation. Above 1.1020 will extend such corrective rise instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1298 key resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still expected to continue. Break of 1.0339 low will send EUR/USD through parity to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. However, considering bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD, break of 1.1298 will indicate long term reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1834; (P) 1.1871; (R1) 1.1898; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains mildly on the downside despite mild recovery. Fall from 1.2265, as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.2348, should target 1.1703 support. On the upside, break of 1.1974 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. Reaction from 1.2555 should reveal underlying long term momentum in the pair. However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again.