Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1817; (P) 1.1879 (R1) 1.1981; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Current rise from 1.0339 should target 61.8% projection of 1.1118 to 1.1908 from 1.1661 at 1.2149 first. Break there will target 100% projection at 1.2451 next. On the downside, below 1.1822 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But retreat should be contained above 1.1661 support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 month EMA (now at 1.1768) will pave the way to key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. While rise from 1.0339 is strong, there is no confirmation that it’s developing into a long term up trend yet. Hence, we’ll be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside. For now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1295 support holds, in case of pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0366; (P) 1.0428 (R1) 1.0489; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral for the moment. Further decline is expected as long as 1.0614 resistance holds. On the downside, sustained break of 1.0339/48 will resume larger down trend. Next target is long term projection level at 1.0090. On the upside, above 1.0614 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.0786 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.0339 long term support (2017 low). Decisive break there will resume whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 1.0090. However, firm break of 1.0805 support turned resistance will delay this bearish case, and bring stronger rebound first.

EUR/USD’s recovery from 1.1183 extended higher last week. Despite weak upside momentum, further rise is expected this week with 1.1250 minor support intact. Rebound from 1.1183 could target 1.1448 resistance next. In that case, we’d expect strong resistance between 1.1448/1569 to limit upside. On the downside, below 1.1250 minor support will turn bias to the downside. Decisive break of 1.1176 will resume the down trend from 1.2555.

In the bigger picture, EUR/USD has been losing downside momentum around 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2016 low) to 1.2555 (2018 high) at 1.1186. But for now, there is no clear sign of medium term reversal yet. Downside from 1.2555 is expected to resume sooner or later as long as 1.1569 structural resistance holds. Decisive break of 1.1186. could pave the way back to 1.0339 low.

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 should at least bring a retest on 1.0339 low. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1569 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0818; (P) 1.0840; (R1) 1.0852; More…

With 1.0888 minor resistance intact, intraday bias in EUR/USD stays on the downside for 161.8% projection of 1.1172 to 1.0992 from 1.1095 at 1.0804 next. On the upside, above 1.0888 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But recovery should be limited by 1.0992 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has just resumed and prior rejection by 55 week EMA affirms medium term bearishness. Sustained break of 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.0813 will pave the way to retest 1.0339 low. For now, outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.1239 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1830; (P) 1.1857; (R1) 1.1876; More…

Some jitter is seen in EUR/USD in early US session. But intraday bias stays on the downside with 1.1883 minor resistance intact. Fall from 1.2263, as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.2348, should target 1.1703 support. On the upside, above 1.1883 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But break of 1.1974 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. Reaction from 1.2555 should reveal underlying long term momentum in the pair. However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1809; (P) 1.1823; (R1) 1.1847; More…..

EUR/USD dips mildly in early US session but stays well inside range below 1.1920. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 1.1920 will reaffirm the case that consolidation from 1.2011 has completed at 1.1602. Further rise would be seen to retest 1.2011 high. However, break of 1.1745 support will turn bias to the downside to extend the consolidation with another falling leg.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1422 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9706; (P) 0.9761; (R1) 0.9797; More…

EUR/USD’s break of 0.9734 minor support should indicate that rebound from 0.9534 has completed at 0.9998. Larger down trend is ready to resume. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.9534 first. Firm break there will target 100% projection of 1.0368 to 0.9534 from 0.9998 at 0.9163. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.9998 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. In any case, break of 0.9998 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish even with strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6480; (P) 0.6568; (R1) 0.6624; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside as down trend continues today. Next target is 0.6461 long term fibonacci level. Break there will target 100% projection of 0.7660 to 0.6680 from 0.7135 at 0.6155. On the upside, above 0.6669 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, down trend form 0.8006 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 0.7135 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 (2020 low) to 0.8006 at 0.6461. Sustained break there will pave the way back to retest 0.5506.

EUR/USD recovered after dipping to 0.9534 last week, but stays below 0.9863 support turned resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Break of 0.9634 minor support will suggest that larger down trend is ready to resume. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 0.9534 and below. However, sustained break of 0.9863 will confirm short term bottoming, and bring stronger rally back to 1.0197 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. In any case, break of 1.0197 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish even with strong rebound.

In the long term picture, long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is extending. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.0635 support turned resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1635; (P) 1.1668; (R1) 1.1717; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Rebound from 1.1300 could extend through 1.1733 resistance. But we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779 to limit upside, at least on first attempt, to bring near term reversal. On the downside, break of 1.1525 support will indicate completion of this corrective rebound. Retest of 1.1300 low should then be seen. However, firm break of 1.1779 will extend the rise to 100% projection of 1.1300 to 1.1733 from 1.1525 at 1.1958.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.1300, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and some consolidations would be seen. But still, note that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Thus, we’d expect fall from 1.2555 high to resume after consolidation completes. Below 1.1300 should send EUR/USD through 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. And, in that case, EUR/USD would head to retest 1.0339 (2017 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1825; (P) 1.1855; (R1) 1.1872; More…

EUR/USD’s retreat from 1.1908 continues today but stays above 1.1792 minor support. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, sustained break of 1.1907 resistance will indicate that fall from 1.2265, as well as the consolidation pattern from 1.2348, have completed. Near term outlook will be turned bullish for 1.2265/2348 resistance zone. However, on the downside, rejection by 1.1907 followed by break of 1.1792 support will dampen the bullish case, and turn bias back to the downside for 1.1663 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally remains in favors long as 1.1602 support holds, to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1116; (P) 1.1154; (R1) 1.1176; More…

EUR/USD’s focus is now on 1.1133 minor support. Break will indicate completion of rebound from 1.1026. Intraday bias will be turned bias back to the downside for 1.1026. Break of 1.1026 will extend the downtrend from 1.2555. IN case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance from 1.1282 to limit upside.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that down trend from 1.2555 (2018) is in progress and extending. Prior rejection of 55 week EMA also maintained bearishness. Further fall should be seen to 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.0813. Decisive break there will target 1.0339 (2017 low). On the upside, break of 1.1412 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1332; (P) 1.1375; (R1) 1.1448; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside at this point. The current development suggests that corrective pattern from 1.1215 is still extending, with rise from 1.1289 as another leg. Further rally would be seen to 1.1569 resistance and above. On the downside, break of 1.1289 is needed to confirm resumption of fall from 1.1569. Otherwise, risk will stay on the upside in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1814 resistance holds, down trend down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. However, break of 1.1814 will confirm completion of such down trend and turn medium term outlook bullish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1916; (P) 1.1951; (R1) 1.2015; More….

EUR/USD is still staying in range of 1.1834/1989 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 1.1989 will resume the rebound form 1.1834 for 55 day EMA (now at 1.2039). Sustained trading above 55 day EMA will indicate completion of correction from 1.2348 and bring retest of this high. On the downside, however, break of 1.1834 will extend the correction from 1.2348 to 38.2% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1694.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. We’d be alerted to topping sign around 1.2516/55. But sustained break there will carry long term bullish implications.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0681; (P) 1.0713; (R1) 1.0731; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as consolidations continue above 1.0685 temporary low. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0944 resistance holds. On the downside, below 1.0685 will resume the fall from 1.1274 to 1.0609/34 cluster support zone next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1274 medium term top is seen as a correction to up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low). Strong support could be seen from 1.0634 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0609) to bring rebound, at least on first attempt. Break of 1.0944 will indicate the start of the second leg, and target retest of 1.1274. However, sustained break of 1.0609/0634 will raise the chance of bearish trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.0199.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1531; (P) 1.1582 (R1) 1.1655; More…..

EUR/USD rebounds to as high as 1.1674 so far today but outlook is unchanged. While further rise cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited below 1.1851 resistance to bring fall resumption. Firm break of 1.1509 low will resume larger decline from 1.2555 through 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447 to 61.8% retracement at 1.1186.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.

EUR/USD finally resumed the rebound from 1.1185 last week and hit as high as 1.1482. But as temporary top was formed with subsequent retreat, initial bias is neutral this week first. rebound from 1.1185 is seen as a corrective move, hence, in case of another rally, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2265 to 1.1185 at 1.1598. On the downside, below 1.1284 support will bring retest of 1.1185 low. However, sustained break of 1.1598 will argue that the trend is reversing already.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways of interpreting the fall from 1.2348 (2021 high). It could be a correction to rise from 1.0635 (2020 low), the fourth leg of a sideway pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low), or resuming long term down trend. In any case, outlook will now stay bearish as long as 1.1703 support turned resistance holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 would pave the way back to 1.0635.

In the long term picture, EUR/USD has possibly failed 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516) again. Long term outlook will remain neutral as sideway pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low) is extending with another medium term fall. For now, we’d hold back from assessing the chance of downside breakout, and monitor the momentum of the decline from 1.2348 first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1130; (P) 1.1153; (R1) 1.1174; More…

EUR/USD is still bounded in consolidation fro 1.1179 and intraday bias stays neutral first. With 1.1062 support intact, further rise is still expected. On the upside break of 1.1179 will resume the rebound from 1.0879 to 1.1412 key resistance. However, break of 1.1062 will argue that rebound from 1.0879 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 1.0879.

In the bigger picture, at this point, rebound from 1.0879 is seen as a corrective move first. Hence, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.0879 at 1.1519. And, down trend from down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) would resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1519 will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger rise to 61.8% retracement at 1.1915 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0951; (P) 1.0991; (R1) 1.1048; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for 1.1147 resistance. But overall, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 1.1496 to 1.0635 at 1.1167 to complete the consolidation pattern from 1.0635. On the downside, break of 1.0870 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 1.0774 support first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1496 resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) should still be in progress. Next target is 1.0339 (2017 low). However, sustained break of 1.1496 will argue that such down trend has completed. Rise from 1.0635 could then be seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339. In this case, outlook will be turned bullish for retesting 1.2555.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0801; (P) 1.0832; (R1) 1.0880; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidation from 1.0777. Another recovery could be seen but upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.1095 to 1.0777 at 1.0898. On the downside, break of 1.0777 will resume larger down trend.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has just resumed and prior rejection by 55 week EMA affirms medium term bearishness. Sustained break of 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.0813 will pave the way to retest 1.0339 low. For now, outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.1239 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.