EUR/JPY’s fall from 137.49 resumed last week and dived to as low as 127.14. There is no clear sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 126.61 medium term fibonacci level. But based on current momentum, EUR/JPY could dive through this level to 100% projection of 137.49 to 128.94 from 133.47 at 124.92. On the upside, above 128.52 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 131.34 resistance holds, even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, bearish divergence in daily MACD and current strong downside momentum is raising the chance of medium term trend reversal. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 126.61 will argue that whole up trend from 109.03 has completed at 137.49 already. And, deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 119.90 and below. Though, strong support from 126.61 and rebound from there would revive medium term bullish for another high above 137.49.

In the long term picture, at this point, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Rise from 109.03 is seen as a leg inside the pattern. As long as 124.08 support holds, further rally is in favor in medium to long term through 149.76 high. However, break of 124.08 could extend the fall through 109.03 low instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 125.17; (P) 125.45; (R1) 125.95; More….

EUR/JPY surges to as high as 126.23 so far today as rise from 123.65 resumed. The development revived that case that corrective fall from 127.50 has completed at 123.65 already. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 126.78/127.50 resistance zone. Decisive break there will resume whole rise from 118.62 spike low. On the downside, below 125.61 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But further rally will remain in favor as long as 124.78 support holds.

In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY is staying well inside medium term falling channel from 137.49 (2018 high). It’s also held below 55 week EMA (now at 127.53). Thus, down trend from 137.49 might still extend lower. Break of 118.62 will target 109.03/114.84 long term support zone. On the upside, however, break of 127.50 will solidify the case of medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 118.76 should extend to 133.12 key resistance instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 125.80; (P) 126.14; (R1) 126.52; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 126.75 temporary top. Downside of retreat should be contained above 124.31 support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 126.75 will target 100% projection of 114.42 to 124.43 from 119.31 at 129.32. Nevertheless, break of 124.31 will indicate short term topping and turn bias to the downside for pull back.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) could have completed at 114.42 already. Rise from 114.42 would target 61.8% retracement of 137.49 to 114.42 at 128.67 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to 137.49 (2018 high). This will remain the preferred case for now, as long as 55 day EMA (now at 122.54) holds. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA will revive medium term bearishness for another low below 114.42 at a later stage.

EUR/JPY rose to as high as 134.73 last week, and break of 134.11 resistance suggests resumption of larger up trend. Initial bias stays on the upside this week. Sustained trading above 134.11 will target 136.53 projection level next. On the downside, though, break of 132.31 minor support will delay the bullish case, and turn intraday bias neutral for some consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress and resuming. Next target is 61.8% projection of 114.42 to 134.11 from 124.37 at 136.53, and then 137.49 (2018 high). In any case, outlook will now remain bullish as long as 124.37 support holds, in case of deep pull back.

In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Long term outlook will remain neutral until breakout from the range of 109.03/137.49.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.42; (P) 130.98; (R1) 131.39; More….

As noted before, the corrective rebound from 129.34 has completed at 132.40 already. That’s slightly ahead of 38.2% retracement of 137.49 to 129.34 at 132.45. Intraday bias remains on the downside for retesting 129.34 low first. Break will resume whole fall from 137.49 and target 126.61 medium term fibonacci level. In case of another rise, we’d continue to expect strong resistance from 132.45 to limit upside.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49, on bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Deeper fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 126.61 first. On the upside, break of 137.49 is needed to confirm medium term rise resumption. Otherwise, risk will now stay on the downside even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.12; (P) 130.54; (R1) 131.18; More….

EUR/JPY’s rally resumes after brief consolidation and reaches as high as 131.17 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside to extend the rise from 124.61, targeting 100% projection of 124.61 to 130.33 from 127.13 at 132.85 next. On the downside, below 129.90 minor support will turn bias neutral again to bring consolidation.

In the bigger picture, for now, EUR/JPY is holding above 124.08 key resistance turned support. Fall from 137.49 could be proven to be a correction. Decisive break of 133.47 resistance will confirm its completion and should extend the rise from 109.03 (2016 low) through 137.49 high. However, firm break of 124.08 will confirm trend reversal. That is, whole rise from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49 already. In that case, deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 119.90 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 126.24; (P) 126.67; (R1) 127.36; More….

EUR/JPY’s recovery from 125.52 extends higher but as it’s seen as a correction, intraday bias remains neutral first. Near term outlook will also say bearish as long as 127.63 resistance holds. On the downside, below 125.52 will target 124.08/89 support zone next.

In the bigger picture, with the current decline, focus would be back on 124.08 key resistance turn supported holds. As long as 124.08 key resistance turn supported holds, larger up trend from 109.03 (2016 low) could still resume. Firm break of 137.49 structural resistance will target 141.04/149.76 resistance zone next. However, decisive break of 124.08 will argue that such rise from 109.03 has completed and turn outlook bearish. In that case, deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 119.90.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 124.82; (P) 125.80; (R1) 126.40; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment and consolidation from 126.75 could extend. Near term outlook remains bullish as long as 124.31 support holds. On the upside, break of 126.75 will resume whole rally from 114.42. However, break of 124.31 should confirm short term topping and bring deeper fall to 55 day EMA (now at 123.54) and below.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) could have completed at 114.42 already. Rise from 114.42 would target 61.8% retracement of 137.49 to 114.42 at 128.67 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to 137.49 (2018 high). This will remain the preferred case for now, as long as 55 week EMA (now at 121.35) holds. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will revive medium term bearishness for another low below 114.42 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.37; (P) 142.04; (R1) 142.49; More….

EUR/JPY’s break of 141.12 minor support suggests that rebound from 138.79 has completed much early than expected at 142.92, capped below 55 day EMA (now at 143.31). Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 138.79 low first. On the upside, sustained trading above 55 day EMA will bring stronger rise back to 146.71/148.38 resistance zone instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 week EMA (now at 138.54) holds, larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still in progress for 149.76 long term resistance. However, firm break of 55 week EMA will bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 148.38 at 135.40 before completing the correction from 148.38.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.80; (P) 158.13; (R1) 158.75; More….

Break of 158.46 resistance indicates that corrective pull back from 159.75 has completed with three waves down to 154.32. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 159.75 high . Firm break there will resume larger up trend. On the downside, below 157.51 minor support will mix up the outlook and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 159.75 are views as a corrective pattern for now. As long as 151.39 support holds, rise from 114.42 (2020 low) is still expected to continue through 159.75 at a later stage. Nevertheless, firm break of 151.39 will confirm medium term topping, and bring lengthier and deeper correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 169.66; (P) 170.28; (R1) 170.83; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is turned neutral again with current retreat. Above 170.87 will resume the rally from 164.01 to retest 171.58 high. ON the downside, break break of 169.05 support should confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 167.31 support instead.

In the bigger picture, a medium top was formed at 171.58 after brief breach of 169.96 (2008 high). But as long as 55 W EMA (now at 166.81) holds, price actions from there is seen as correcting the rise from 153.15 only. That is, larger up trend remains in favor to continue. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that larger scale correction is underway and target 153.15 support.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.70; (P) 130.02; (R1) 130.46; More….

Despite breaching 130.26 to 130.33, there is no follow through buying in EUR/JPY. Upside momentum also stays weak as seen in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, firm break of 130.26 will resume the rebound form 124.61 and target 133.47 key near term resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 127.78 minor support will indicate completion of the rebound from 124.61. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 124.61 first.

In the bigger picture, despite rebounding strongly ahead of 124.08 resistance turned support, there was no clear follow through buying. Note again that there is bearish divergence in daily MACD. Firm break of 124.08 will confirm trend reversal. That is, whole rise from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49 already. In that case, deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 119.90 and below. Nonetheless, decisive break of 133.47 key resistance will likely extend the rise from 109.03 through 137.49 high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.88; (P) 130.39; (R1) 130.71; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the downside for 129.34 low. Decisive break there will confirm resumption of whole fall 137.49 and target 126.61 medium term fibonacci level. In case the corrective pattern from 129.34 extends with one more rise. we’d continue to expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 137.49 to 129.34 at 132.45 to limit upside.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49, on bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Deeper fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 126.61 first. On the upside, break of 137.49 is needed to confirm medium term rise resumption. Otherwise, risk will now stay on the downside even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.06; (P) 129.67; (R1) 130.04; More….

EUR/JPY drops sharply after hitting 130.26 and intraday bias is turned neutral for some consolidations. Another rise is expected long as 127.78 minor support holds. Above 130.26 will target 131.34 first. And break will target 133.47 key resistance next. However, break of 127.78 will indicate completion of the rebound and turn bias to the downside for retesting 124.61 instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 124.08 resistance turned support holds, medium term rise from 109.03 (2016 low) is still in progress and another high above 137.49 would be seen. Nonetheless, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, decisive break of 124.08 will confirm medium term reversal and target 61.8% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 119.90 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 117.66; (P) 118.35; (R1) 119.18; More….

EUR/JPY is staying in consolidation from 115.86. Stronger rise could be seen to 121.14 resistance. On the downside, through, decisive break of 115.86 will confirm larger down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains bearish as the cross is staying well inside falling channel established since 137.49 (2018 high), as well as falling 55 week EMA. As long as 122.87 resistance holds, the down trend form 137.49 should extend to 109.48 (2016 low). However, sustained break of 122.87 will indicate medium term bullish reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.11; (P) 157.54; (R1) 158.02; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment and more sideway trading could be seen inside range of 156.85/159.75 first. On the downside, break of 156.85 will turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 156.29) and possibly below. On the upside, break of 159.75 will resume larger up trend instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 124.37 to 148.38 from 139.05 at 163.06. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest long term resistance at 169.96. This will remain the favored case as long as 151.39 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 128.32; (P) 128.88; (R1) 129.54; More….

Prior break of 128.32 suggests that decline from 133.12 is resuming. Further fall is expected as long as 130.20 resistance holds. Break of 127.85 support should confirm completion of rebound from 124.89 at 133.12 and bring retest of this low.

In the bigger picture, as long as 124.08 key resistance turn supported holds, larger up trend from 109.03 (2016 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 137.49 structural resistance will target 141.04/149.76 resistance zone next. However, decisive break of 124.08 will argue that such rise from 109.03 has completed and turn outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 137.44; (P) 137.87; (R1) 138.48; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the upside as rebound from 133.38 is still in progress. Sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 138.44) will suggest that whole correction from 144.26 has completed. Further rally would then be seen back to retest 144.26 high. However, break of 135.63 will turn bias back to the downside for 133.38 low instead.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 109.30 (2016 low). Further rally is in favor as long as 134.11 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back. Next target is 149.76 (2015 high). However, sustained break of 134.11 will be a sign of medium term bearish reversal and turn focus to 124.37 support for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.28; (P) 129.71; (R1) 130.02; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays neutral for the moment and outlook is unchanged. We’d continue to expect strong resistance from 130.20 to limit upside, to resume the decline from 133.12. On the downside, break of 128.38 minor support will turn bias to the downside. Break of 126.63 will extend the fall from 133.12 to retest 124.89 low. Nonetheless, sustained break of 130.20 will pave the way back to 133.12 high instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 124.08 key resistance turn supported holds, larger up trend from 109.03 (2016 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 137.49 structural resistance will target 141.04/149.76 resistance zone next. However, decisive break of 124.08 will argue that such rise from 109.03 has completed and turn outlook bearish. In that case, deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 119.90.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.39; (P) 129.85; (R1) 130.37; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for consolidation above 129.11. Further decline remains in favor as long as 130.70 resistance holds. Below 129.11 will target 127.85 support first. Break there will confirm completion of rebound from 124.89 at 133.12 and bring retest of this low. On the upside, though, above 130.70 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 133.12 instead.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/JPY could have defended key support level of 124.08 key resistance turned support. And, the larger up trend from 109.03 (2016 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 137.49 structural resistance will target 141.04/149.76 resistance zone next. This will be the preferred case as long as 127.85 near term support holds. However, break of 127.895 will turn focus back to 124.08 key support level.