EUR/JPY edged higher to 125.95 last week but gyrated down afterwards. Break of 124.36 suggests that rebound from 118.62 has completed just ahead of 55 day EMA . Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for 123.78 support first. Break there will add more credence to this case and target a test on 118.62 low. On the upside, break of 125.95 resistance is needed to confirm resumption of the rebound. Otherwise, risk will now stay on the downside in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49 already, with corrective structure. Fall from 137.49 is likely still in progress. Decisive break of 118.62 will target 161.8% projection of 137.49 to 124.61 from 133.12 at 112.28, which is inside 109.03/114.84 support zone.

In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Fall from 137.49 is seen as a falling leg inside the pattern. It could extend through 109.03 to resume the decline from 149.76 But in that case, we’d expect strong support around 94.11 (2012 low) to bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 122.62; (P) 122.89; (R1) 123.19; More….

No change in EUR/JPY’s outlook. While further rise could be seen, upside is still expected to be limited by 123.73 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 122.10 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 120.78 first. Break of 120.78 will resume the fall from 127.50 and target 118.62 low next. However, sustained break of 123.73 will indicate short term reversal and turn outlook bullish for 127.50 resistance again.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 137.49 is still in progress with the cross staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 118.62 will extend the fall to 109.48 (2016 low). On the upside, break of 127.50 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 126.24; (P) 126.67; (R1) 127.36; More….

EUR/JPY’s recovery from 125.52 extends higher but as it’s seen as a correction, intraday bias remains neutral first. Near term outlook will also say bearish as long as 127.63 resistance holds. On the downside, below 125.52 will target 124.08/89 support zone next.

In the bigger picture, with the current decline, focus would be back on 124.08 key resistance turn supported holds. As long as 124.08 key resistance turn supported holds, larger up trend from 109.03 (2016 low) could still resume. Firm break of 137.49 structural resistance will target 141.04/149.76 resistance zone next. However, decisive break of 124.08 will argue that such rise from 109.03 has completed and turn outlook bearish. In that case, deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 119.90.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.96; (P) 132.14; (R1) 132.49; More….

Intraday bias bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 132.89 temporary top. For now, downside of retreat should be contained by 131.09 minor support to bring another rise. Above 132.89 will extend the rebound from 128.94 to 61.8% retracement of 137.49 to 128.94 at 134.22 and above. On the downside, below 131.09 will indicate that the rebound is completed and bring retest of 128.94 low instead.

In the bigger picture, price action from 137.49 medium term top are developing into a corrective pattern. Strong support from 55 week EMA (now at 129.91) suggests that the first leg has completed at 128.94 already. Nonetheless, break of 137.49 is needed to confirm resumption of the rise from 109.03 (2016 low). Otherwise, we’d expect more corrective range trading, with risk of another fall to 38.2% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 126.61 before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 125.05; (P) 125.28; (R1) 125.46; More….

EUR/JPY’s break of 125.91 minor resistance suggests that corrective pull back from 127.48 has completed at 125.07. That came after drawing support from 38.2% retracement of 121.63 to 127.48 at 125.24. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 127.48 resistance. On the downside, through, firm break of 125.07 will extend the correction to 61.8% retracement at 123.86.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 is seen as a medium term rising leg inside a long term sideway pattern. Further rise is expected as long as 121.63 support holds. Decisive break of 127.07 will target 61.8% retracement of 137.49 (2018 high) to 114.42 at 128.67. Sustained trading above there will target 137.49 next. However, firm break of 121.63 will argue that the rise from 114.42 has completed and turn focus back to this low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.74; (P) 130.23; (R1) 130.50; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is back on the downside as fall from 133.13 resumed after brief recovery. Such decline is seen as another falling leg of the corrective pattern from 134.11. Break of 128.23 support will target 127.36 low and below. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 130.03 support turned resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 134.11 are currently seen as a consolidation pattern only. As long as 38.2% retracement of 114.42 (2020 low) to 134.11 at 126.58 holds, up trend from 114.42 is still in favor to continue. Break of 134.11 will target long term resistance at 137.49 (2018 high). However, sustained break of 126.58 will raise the chance of bearish reversal. In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 121.94, and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 117.75; (P) 117.97; (R1) 118.16; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays neutral with focus on 117.55 minor support. Break will suggest completion of rebound from 115.86. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for retesting 115.86 first. On the upside, break of 120.01 will resume the rebound through 61.8% retracement of 123.35 to 115.86 at 120.48.

In the bigger picture, as long as 120.78 support turned resistance holds, down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) should still be in progress. Break of 115.86 will target 109.48 (2016 low) and below. However, sustained break of 120.78 will be the first indication of medium term reversal. Further rise would then be seen to 127.50 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.40; (P) 161.90; (R1) 162.74; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Correction from 163.70 should have completed at 160.20. Further rally would be seen to retest 163.70 first. Decisive break there will resume larger rally from 153.15 for 164.29 high. On the downside, below 161.05 minor support will turn bias back to the downside to resume the correction from 163.70.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 164.29 medium term top are seen as a correction to rise from 139.05 which could still be extending. As long as 148.38 resistance turned support holds (2022 high), larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is expected to resume through 164.29 at a later stage. Next target would be 169.96 (2008 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 140.83; (P) 141.23; (R1) 141.70; More….

EUR/JPY is still bounded in range of 137.37/142.84 and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, break of 137.37 will resume the whole decline from 148.38 to 135.40 fibonacci level next. However, firm break of 142.84 will argue that the correction from 148.38 has completed, and bring stronger rise back to 146.71 resistance.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 week EMA (now at 138.81) holds, larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still in progress for 149.76 long term resistance. However, firm break of 55 week EMA will bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 148.38 at 135.40. Sustained break there will raise the chance of trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 127.39.

EUR/JPY dipped to 122.39 but drew support from 55 day EMA and rebounded. Initial bias stays mildly on the upside this week for 125.80/126.09 resistance zone. Decisive break of 126.09 will extend the whole rebound from 109.03 to 100% projection of 109.03 to 124.08 from 114.84 at 129.89. In case of another fall as consolidation from 125.80 extends, we’d still expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 114.84 to 125.80 at 121.61 to bring rebound and then rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, focus is staying on 126.09 support turned resistance. Decisive break there will confirm completion of the down trend from 149.76. And in such case, rise from 109.20 is at the same degree and should target 141.04 resistance and above. Meanwhile, rejection from 126.09 and break of 114.84 will extend the fall from 149.76 through 109.20 low.

In the long term picture, medium term decline from 149.76 is seen as part of a long term sideway pattern from 88.96. We’re not seeing any sign of an established long term trend yet. Hence, we’ll be cautious on strong support at 94.11 in case of another fall. Also, there could be strong resistance at 149.76 in case of a medium term rise.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 115.47; (P) 115.70; (R1) 116.07; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays neutral first. Corrective recovery from 114.42 might extend. But upside should be limited well below 117.77 resistance to bring down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 114.42 should target 161.8% projection of 122.87 to 116.12 from 121.14 at 110.21 next.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) is still in progress. EUR/JPY continues to stay well inside falling channel and below falling 55 week EMA. Deeper fall could be seen to retest 109.48 (2016 low) next. On the upside, break of 122.87 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 125.88; (P) 126.33; (R1) 127.02; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the upside at this point. As correction from 127.50 has completed at 123.65 already, further rise should be seen to 127.50 resistance. Decisive break there will resume whole rise from 118.62 for medium term channel resistance at 129.15 next. On the downside, break of 125.61 resistance turned support will need to indicate completion of the rise. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain cautiously bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation of completion of the down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) yet. In case of an extension, break of 118.62 will target 109.03/114.84 long term support zone. However, break of 127.50 will solidify the case of medium term bullish reversal. Further decisive break medium term channel resistance will affirm reversal and target 133.12 key resistance and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.81; (P) 147.22; (R1) 148.14; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is turned neutral first as it retreated after failing to sustain above 148.38 resistance. On the upside, decisive break of 148.38 will resume larger up trend, and next target will be 149.76 long term resistance. However, sustained trading below 146.39 will indicate rejection by 148.38, and bring deeper fall to extend the corrective pattern from there.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 140.70) holds, larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still in progress for 149.76 long term resistance (2014 high). Decisive break there will resume long term up trend from 94.11 (2012 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 148.38 from 138.81 at 153.64.

EUR/JPY’s fall from 124.08 continued last week and reached as low as 115.19. The development is consistent with our view that corrective rise from 109.20 has completed at 124.08. And further fall is expected to retest 109.20.

Initial bias in EUR/JPY remains on the downside this week for 61.8% retracement of 109.20 to 124.08 at 114.88. Sustained break of 114.88 will pave the way for retesting 109.20 low. On the upside, above 116.54 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited by 118.23 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term corrective rise from 109.20 should have completed at 124.08, ahead of 126.09 support turned resistance. Medium term down trend from 149.76 is likely resuming. Break of 109.20 will target 94.11 low. In any case, break of 126.09 is needed needed to confirm medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, medium term decline from 149.76 is seen as part of a long term sideway pattern from 88.96. Such decline is still in progress and could target 94.11 low. At this point, we’d look for loss of downside momentum above 94.11 to signal bottoming and reversal. This bearish view will hold as long as 126.09 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.94; (P) 130.40; (R1) 131.20; More….

EUR/JPY’s rally from 124.89 is still in progress and reaches as high as 130.86 so far. Intraday bias stays on the upside for resistance zone between 131.97 and 61.8% retracement of 137.49 to 124.61 at 132.56. On the downside, below 129.57 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY once again rebounded ahead of 124.08 key resistance turned support. It’s also held above long term trend line from 109.03 (2016 low). The development argues that such rise from 109.03 might now be over yet. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 137.49 to 124.61 at 132.56 will pave the way to retest 137.49 high. But, firm break of 124.08 will argue that whole rise from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49. Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 119.90 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 123.75; (P) 124.09; (R1) 124.53; More….

Despite unconvincing downside momentum, further fall is expected in EUR/JPY with 125.01 minor resistance intact. Fall from 127.50 would target 61.8% retracement of 118.62 to 127.50 at 122.01. However, break of 125.01 will turn bias back to the upside for 126.78/127.50 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 118.62 might have completed earlier than expected at 127.50. EUR/JPY is held well inside medium term falling channel, and below 55 week EMA (now at 127.86). That is, the down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) might still be in progress. Break of 118.62 will target 109.03/114.84 long term support zone. On the upside, however, break of 127.50 will extend the rebound from 118.62 to 133.12 key resistance instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.93; (P) 132.21; (R1) 132.58; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Near term outlook remains bullish as long as 131.69 holds. Sustained break of 134.20 fibonacci level will extend larger up trend to 141.04 resistance next. However, break of 131.69 will be an early sign of medium term reversal and will target 127.55 key support level instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 109.03 (2016 low) is seen as at the same degree as the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) to 109.03 (2016 low). 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to key long term resistance zone at 141.04/149.76. However, break of 127.55 support will argue that the medium term trend has reversal and will turn outlook bearish for deeper fall.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.12; (P) 156.64; (R1) 157.43; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the downside as correction from 157.99 is extending to 154.03 support or below. But overall outlook will stay bullish as long as 151.60 resistance turned support holds. Larger rally is still expected to resume through 157.99 after the correction completes.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 124.37 to 148.38 from 138.81 at 162.82. For now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 151.60 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 119.51; (P) 119.84; (R1) 120.11; More….

At this point, we’re still viewing price action form 121.46 as consolidation. While further pull back cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained by 119.11 support. On the upside break of 121.46 will resume the rise from 115.86 to 123.35 resistance next. However, firm break of 119.11 will argue that rise from 115.86 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 117.07 support.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that a medium term bottom is formed at 115.86, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, ahead of 114.84 support. Decisive of 120.78 support turned resistance will affirm this case and bring further rise to falling channel resistance (now at 125.38). Reactions from there would decide whether the medium term trend has reversed. For now, further rise is expected as long as 117.07 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 128.65; (P) 128.99; (R1) 129.42; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is turned neutral for now, as it recovered just ahead of 127.91 key support. On the upside, break of 129.97 will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for rebound back towards 133.44 high. On the downside, however, break of 127.91 will extend the whole corrective pattern from 134.11, to 126.58 medium term fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 38.2% retracement of 114.42 (2020 low) to 134.11 at 126.58 holds, up trend from 114.42 is still in favor to continue. Break of 134.11 will target long term resistance at 137.49 (2018 high). However, sustained break of 126.58 will raise the chance of medium term bearish reversal. In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 121.94, and possibly below.