Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.33; (P) 130.74; (R1) 131.05; More….

EUR/JPY rebounded strongly ahead of 129.22 support and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Near term outlook stays bearish with 131.36 resistance intact and deeper decline is expected. Below 129.22 will target 128.94 first. Break there will resume the corrective fall from 137.49 and target 61.8% projection of 137.49 to 128.94 from 133.47 at 128.18, and possibly further to 126.61 medium term fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, for now, price actions from 137.49 are viewed as a corrective pattern only. Hence, while deeper decline would be seen, strong support is expected at 38.2% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 126.61 to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 109.03 (2016 low) is expected to resume afterwards. Though, sustained break of 126.61 will be an important sign of trend reversal and will turn focus to 124.08 resistance turned support.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.88; (P) 131.40; (R1) 132.06; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. The corrective pattern from 134.11 could have completed at 124.37 already. Further rise should be seen to 133.13/134.11 resistance zone next. On the downside, break of 130.01 minor support will mix up the outlook and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook remains neutral for now. Price actions from 134.11 are so far still seen as a corrective pattern. That is, rise from 114.42 (2020 low) is in favor to resume at a later stage. But before that, the corrective pattern from 134.11 could still extend further, sideway or downward. In the latter case, break of of 124.37 will target 61.8% retracement of 114.42 to 134.11 at 121.94.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.62; (P) 129.94; (R1) 130.48; More….

Despite losing downside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD, deeper fall is expected with 130.86 minor resistance intact. As noted before, EUR/JPY’s rebound from 124.61 could have completed at 131.97 already. Break of 127.13 will confirm this bearish case and target 124.61 low. On the upside, though, above 130.86 minor resistance will dampen this bearish cas and bring retest of 131.97 instead.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of channel resistance from 137.49 suggests that the decline from there has completed. The three wave structure suggests that it’s a correction. With 124.08 key resistance turned support intact, medium term bullishness is also retained. Break of 133.47 will affirm this bullish case and target 137.49 and above. This will now be the favored case as long as 127.13 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.27; (P) 130.23; (R1) 130.75; More….

The break of 129.59 support dampens our bullish view and indicates that rebound from 127.36 has completed at 131.59 already. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 127.36 first. Break there will extend the corrective pattern from 134.11 to 126.58 fibonacci level. On the upside, though, break of 131.59 will resume the rebound to 133.44/134.11 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, as long as 38.2% retracement of 114.42 (2020 low) to 134.11 at 126.58 holds, up trend from 114.42 is still in favor to continue. Break of 134.11 will target long term resistance at 137.49 (2018 high). However, sustained break of 126.58 will raise the chance of medium term bearish reversal. In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 121.94, and possibly below.

EUR/JPY surged to as high as 130.26 last week but retreated sharply since then. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Despite breaking 128.94 support turned resistance, the rejection by falling 55 day EMA kept outlook bearish. EUR/JPY is also staying well inside falling channel from 137.49. Hence, break of 127.78 minor support will indicate completion of the rebound. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 124.61 first. Nonetheless, above 130.26 will extend the rebound to 133.47 key near term resistance next.

In the bigger picture, despite rebound strongly ahead of 124.08 resistance turned support, there was no clear follow through buying. Note again that there is bearish divergence in daily MACD. Firm break of 124.08 will confirm trend reversal. That is, whole rise from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49 already. In that case, deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 119.90 and below. Nonetheless, decisive break of 133.47 key resistance will likely extend the rise from 109.03 through 137.49 high.

In the long term picture, at this point, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Rise from 109.03 is seen as a leg inside the pattern. As long as 124.08 support holds, further rally is in favor in medium to long term through 149.76 high. However, break of 124.08 could extend the fall through 109.03 low instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.76; (P) 131.18; (R1) 131.62; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral with focus on 130.86 resistance turned support. On the upside, break of 133.12 will resume the rise from 124.89 and target 137.49 high. However, firm break of 130.86 will argue that whole rise from 124.89 has completed. Deeper fall should then be seen back towards 127.85 support.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/JPY has defended key support level of 124.08 key resistance turned support. And, the larger up trend from 109.03 (2016 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 137.49 will target 141.04/149.76 resistance zone next. This will now be the preferred case as long as 127.85 near term support holds.

EUR/JPY’s fall from 134.11 resumed last week and edged lower to 127.91. But a temporary low was formed there, and initial bias is turned neutral this week for some consolidations. Near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 130.54 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 127.91 will target 127.07 resistance turned support. That is close to 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 134.11 at 126.58.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 is seen as a medium term rising leg inside a long term sideway pattern. As long as 127.07 resistance turned support holds, further rise is still expected to retest 137.49 (2018 high). However, firm break of 127.07 will argue that the medium term trend has reversed, deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 114.42 to 134.11 at 121.94.

In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Another rising leg in progress for 137.49 resistance and above.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 127.73; (P) 128.16; (R1) 128.46; More….

EUR/JPY’s recovery attempt was rejected by 4 hour 55 EMA and focus is back on 127.61 support. Break there will resume the fall from 130.14 and target 126.63 support first. Break there will then resume the whole decline from 133.12 to 124.08/89 support zone. Overall, consolidation from 126.63 could still extend. But even in case of another strong recovery, outlook will stay bearish as long as 130.14 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, as long as 124.08 key resistance turn supported holds, larger up trend from 109.03 (2016 low) could still resume. Firm break of 137.49 structural resistance will target 141.04/149.76 resistance zone next. However, decisive break of 124.08 will argue that such rise from 109.03 has completed and turn outlook bearish. In that case, deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 119.90.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 124.16; (P) 124.52; (R1) 124.81; More….

EUR/JPY recovered ahead of 123.78 minor support with 4 hour MACD crossed above signal line. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. At this point, we’re favoring the case that rebound from 118.62 has completed at 125.95 already, just ahead of 55 day EMA. On the downside, break of 123.78 will add more credence to this case and target a test on 118.62 low. On the upside, break of 125.95 resistance is needed to confirm resumption of the rebound. Otherwise, risk will now stay on the downside in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49 already, with corrective structure. Fall from 137.49 is likely still in progress. Decisive break of 118.62 will target 161.8% projection of 137.49 to 124.61 from 133.12 at 112.28, which is inside 109.03/114.84 support zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.81; (P) 157.35; (R1) 158.00; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays neutral as consolidation from 157.99 might extend further. In case of another dip, further rally is still expected as long as 154.03 support holds. On the upside, break of 157.99 will resume larger up trend to 162.82 projection level. However, break of 154.03 will argue that larger correction is under way back to 151.60 resistance turned support.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 124.37 to 148.38 from 138.81 at 162.82. For now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 151.60 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

EUR/JPY’s strong rebound from 153.32 last week argues that pull back from 157.99 has completed already. Initial bias is now mildly on the upside this week for retesting 157.99 first. Firm break there will resume larger up trend. On the downside, break of 153.32 will extend the pull back from 157.99 to 55 D EMA (now at 152.38) and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, as long as 151.60 resistance turned support holds, rise from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. On resumption, next target is 100% projection of 124.37 to 148.38 from 138.81 at 162.82. Nevertheless, sustained break of 151.60 will argue that larger correction is already underway.

In the long term picture, rise from 109.03 (2016 low) is seen as the third leg of the whole up trend from 94.11 (2012 low). Next target is 100% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 from 109.03 at 164.68, and possibly further to 169.96 (2008 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.13; (P) 142.99; (R1) 143.50; More….

Intraday bias in in EUR/JPY is back on the downside with break of 141.39 minor support. Deeper fall would be seen back to 137.83 support next. Sustained break there will raise the chance of rejection by 144.06 long term projection level and target 132.63 support. On the upside, above 142.42 minor resistance will bring retest of 144.26 high instead.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. Such rise is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 109.30 (2016 low). Sustained trading above 100% projection of 114.42 to 134.11 from 124.37 at 144.06 will indicate upside acceleration and target 149.76 long term resistance (2014 high). In any case, outlook will now remain bullish as long as 132.63 support holds, in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.05; (P) 121.39; (R1) 122.02; More….

EUR/JPY’s rally extends to as high as 122.58 so far. Break of 121.46 resistance confirms resumption of whole rise from 115.86. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 123.35 resistance first. Break will target key channel resistance (now at 124.72). On the downside, break of 121.01 resistance turn support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the rebound from 115.86 medium term bottom is seen as a corrective rise only. In case of another rise, strong resistance should be seen from falling channel resistance (now at 124.72) to limit upside. However, sustained break there will indicate larger bullish reversal and should target 127.50 key resistance next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 125.18; (P) 125.54; (R1) 125.79; More….

EUR/JPY is still extending the consolidation from 127.07 and intraday bias remains neutral first. As long as 124.44 support holds, further rally is in favor. On the upside, firm break of 127.07 will resume larger rise from 114.42, to 128.67 fibonacci level. However, firm break of 124.44 should, at least, start the correction to such rise from 114.42, and turn bias to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 127.07 at 122.23.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) could have completed at 114.42 already. Rise from 114.42 would target 61.8% retracement of 137.49 to 114.42 at 128.67 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to 137.49 (2018 high). This will remain the preferred case for now, as long as 119.31 support holds.

EUR/JPY dropped sharply to as low as 151.39 last week, but recovered strongly ahead of 38.2% retracement of 139.05 to 157.99 at 150.77. The development argues that price actions from 157.99 are merely a correction to the rise from 139.05 only. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Break of 157.99 will resume larger up trend to 162.82 projection level next. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 150.77 holds, in case of another dip.

In the bigger picture, as long as 151.60 resistance turned support holds, rise from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. On resumption, next target is 100% projection of 124.37 to 148.38 from 138.81 at 162.82. Nevertheless, sustained break of 151.60 will argue that larger correction is already underway. Deeper decline would be seen to 55 W EMA (now at 145.56).

In the long term picture, rise from 109.03 (2016 low) is seen as the third leg of the whole up trend from 94.11 (2012 low). Next target is 100% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 from 109.03 at 164.68, and possibly further to 169.96 (2008 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.24; (P) 156.08; (R1) 156.78; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains mildly on the downside at this point. Correction from 157.99 short term top should extend to 154.03 support or below. But overall outlook will stay bullish as long as 151.60 resistance turned support holds. Larger rally is still expected to resume through 157.99 after the correction completes. On the upside, above 157.18 minor resistance will bring retest of 157.99 high first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 151.60 resistance turned support holds, rise from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. On resumption, next target is 100% projection of 124.37 to 148.38 from 138.81 at 162.82. Nevertheless, sustained break of 151.60 will argue that larger correction is already underway.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 159.12; (P) 159.43; (R1) 159.94; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is back on the upside with break of 160.25 minor resistance. Further rise should be seen to 161.84 resistance first. Firm break there will target 164.29 high. For now, further rally is expected as long as 158.06 support holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 164.29 medium term top are seen as a correction to rise from 139.05 only. As long as 148.38 resistance turned support holds (2022 high), larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is expected to resume through 164.29 at a later stage.

EUR/JPY’s rebound last week suggests that corrective pull back from 161.84 has completed at 158.06 already. Initial bias remains on the upside for 161.84 resistance first. Firm break there will rebound whole rise from 153.15 to retest 161.84. For now, further rally is expected as long as 158.06 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 164.29 medium term top are seen as a correction to rise from 139.05 only. As long as 148.38 resistance turned support holds (2022 high), larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is expected to resume through 164.29 at a later stage. Next target would be 169.96 (2008 high).

In the long term picture, rise from 114.42 (2020 low) is seen as the third leg of the whole up trend from 94.11 (2012 low). Next target is 100% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 from 114.42 at 170.07 which is close to 169.96 (2008 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 148.38 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 169.26; (P) 169.79; (R1)170.29; More…

No change in EUR/JPY’s outlook. Further rise is mildly in favor despite loss of upside momentum. Rise from 164.01, as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 171.58, would target 61.8% projection of 164.01 to 169.38 from 167.31 at 170.62. On the downside, break of 169.05 minor support will intraday bias neutral first. Further break of 167.31 should turn bias back to the downside to start the third leg towards 164.01.

In the bigger picture, a medium top could be formed at 171.58 after brief breach of 169.96 (2008 high). As long as 55 W EMA (now at 158.70) holds, fall from there is seen as correcting the rise from 153.15 only. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that larger scale correction is underway and target 153.15 support.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.91; (P) 131.60; (R1) 132.17; More….

EUR/JPY’s break of 130.95 minor support suggests that corrective recovery from 129.34 has completed at 132.40 already. That’s slightly ahead of 38.2% retracement of 137.49 to 129.34 at 132.45. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 129.34 low first. Break will resume whole fall from 137.49 and target 126.61 medium term fibonacci level. In case of another rise, we’d continue to expect strong resistance from 132.45 to limit upside.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49, on bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Deeper fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 126.61 first. On the upside, break of 137.49 is needed to confirm medium term rise resumption. Otherwise, risk will now stay on the downside even in case of strong rebound.