Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.02; (P) 131.46; (R1) 132.25; More…

EUR/JPY’s break of 131.69 resistance confirms resumption of larger rally. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Current rise should target 134.20 fibonacci level next. On the downside, break of 129.36 support is now needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current rise from 109.03 is seen as at the same degree as the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) to 109.03 (2016 low). as long as 124.08 resistance turned support holds, further rise is expected to 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20. Sustained break there will pave the way to key long term resistance zone at 141.04/149.76. However, firm break of 124.08 will argue that rise from 109.03 is completed and turn outlook bearish.

EUR/JPY’s strong rally last week suggests that rebound from 115.86 is ready to resume. The strong break of 55 day EMA and bullish convergence condition in daily MACD argues that 115.86 is a medium term bottom too. Initial bias stays on the upside this week. Break of 120.01 will target 100% projection of 115.86 to 120.01 from 117.07 at 121.16 first. On the downside, though, below 118.76 will mix up the outlook and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that a medium term bottom is formed at 115.86, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, ahead of 114.84 support. Break of 120.78 support turned resistance will affirm this case and bring further rise to falling channel resistance (now at 126.10). Reactions from there would decide whether the medium term has reversed. For now, further rise is expected as long as 117.07 support holds.

In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Fall from 137.49 is seen as a falling leg inside the pattern. This falling leg would target 109.48 (2016 low). With EUR/JPY staying below 55 month EMA, this is the preferred case.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 158.28; (P) 159.28; (R1) 159.98; More…

Immediate focus is now on 158.55 support in EUR/JPY. Sustained break there will argue that rebound from 153.15 has completed at 161.84 already. Fall from there is then seen as the third leg of the pattern from 164.29 high. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 155.06 support next. On the upside, above 160.25 minor resistance will retain near term bullishness, and bring retest of 161.84 first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 164.29 medium term top are seen as a correction to rise from 139.05 only. As long as 148.48 resistance turned support holds (2022 high), larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is expected to resume through 164.29 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.57; (P) 130.54; (R1) 131.05; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the downside as fall from 137.49 is in progress. As noted before, a medium term top is likely in place at 137.49 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Deeper decline should be seen to 126.61 medium term fibonacci level next. On the upside, break of 132.17 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 109.03 has completed at 137.49, on bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Deeper fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 126.61 first. On the upside, break of 137.49 is needed to confirm medium term rise resumption. Otherwise, risk will now stay on the downside even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 118.94; (P) 119.47; (R1) 120.21; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains mildly on the upside at this point. Further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 115.86 to 120.01 from 117.07 at 121.16 first. On the downside, though, below 118.76 will mix up the outlook and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that a medium term bottom is formed at 115.86, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, ahead of 114.84 support. Break of 120.78 support turned resistance will affirm this case and bring further rise to falling channel resistance (now at 126.10). Reactions from there would decide whether the medium term has reversed. For now, further rise is expected as long as 117.07 support holds.

EUR/JPY’s fall from 124.08 continued last week and reached as low as 115.19. The development is consistent with our view that corrective rise from 109.20 has completed at 124.08. And further fall is expected to retest 109.20.

Initial bias in EUR/JPY remains on the downside this week for 61.8% retracement of 109.20 to 124.08 at 114.88. Sustained break of 114.88 will pave the way for retesting 109.20 low. On the upside, above 116.54 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited by 118.23 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term corrective rise from 109.20 should have completed at 124.08, ahead of 126.09 support turned resistance. Medium term down trend from 149.76 is likely resuming. Break of 109.20 will target 94.11 low. In any case, break of 126.09 is needed needed to confirm medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, medium term decline from 149.76 is seen as part of a long term sideway pattern from 88.96. Such decline is still in progress and could target 94.11 low. At this point, we’d look for loss of downside momentum above 94.11 to signal bottoming and reversal. This bearish view will hold as long as 126.09 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 128.01; (P) 128.78; (R1) 129.33; More…

EUR/JPY’s correction from 131.39 extends lower today and intraday bias remains on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 122.39 to 131.39 at 127.95. At this point, we’d expect strong support from 127.95 to contain downside and bring rebound. Above 129.54 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 131.39. However, firm break of 127.95 will bring deeper decline to 125.80 cluster support (61.8% retracement at 125.82) before completing the correction.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) is completed at 109.03 (2016 low). Current rally from 109.03 should be at the same degree as the fall from 149.76 to 109.03. Further rise is expected to 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20. Sustained break there will pave the way to key long term resistance zone at 141.04/149.76. Medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 124.08 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.57; (P) 129.75; (R1) 130.03; More….

EUR/JPY’s rise continues today and hits as high as 130.12 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 130.73 resistance first. Firm break there will argue that correction from 134.11 has completed and turn near term outlook bullish for retesting this high. On the downside, break of 129.36 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 127.91 instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 is seen as a medium term rising leg inside a long term sideway pattern. As long as 127.07 resistance turned support holds, further rise is still expected to retest 137.49 (2018 high). However, firm break of 127.07 will argue that the medium term trend has reversed, deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 114.42 to 134.11 at 121.94.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 120.41; (P) 120.50; (R1) 120.67; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment. With 119.11 support intact, rise from 115.86 is in favor to continue. On the upside, above 120.68 will turn bias to the upside for 121.46 resistance first. However, firm break of 119.11 will argue that the rebound from 115.86 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 117.07 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, the rebound from 115.86 medium term bottom is seen as a corrective rise only. IN case of another rise, strong resistance should be seen from falling channel resistance (now at 125.23) to limit upside. Break of 117.07 support will be an early sign of resumption of down trend from 137.49 through 115.86 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 125.72; (P) 125.96; (R1) 126.31; More….

EUR/JPY is staying in range of 125.07/126.39 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 126.39 will resume the rebound from 125.07, for retesting 127.48 high. On the downside, however, break of 125.07 will argue that the correction from 127.48 is resuming. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 61.8% retracement of 121.63 to 127.48 at 123.86.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 is seen as a medium term rising leg inside a long term sideway pattern. Further rise is expected as long as 121.63 support holds. Decisive break of 127.07 will target 61.8% retracement of 137.49 (2018 high) to 114.42 at 128.67. Sustained trading above there will target 137.49 next. However, firm break of 121.63 will argue that the rise from 114.42 has completed and turn focus back to this low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 133.58; (P) 133.85; (R1) 134.00; More….

EUR/JPY continues to lose upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But further rise is still expected to 100% projection of 114.42 to 127.07 from 121.63 at 134.28. Sustained break there will extend the up trend from 114.42 to 137.49 long term resistance next. On the downside, break of 132.51 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 is seen as a medium term rising leg inside a long term sideway pattern. Further rise is expected as long as 130.65 resistance turned support holds. Next target is 137.49 (2018 high). Decisive break there will open up the possibility that it’s indeed resuming the up trend from 94.11 (2012 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 168.69; (P) 169.36; (R1) 170.35; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Current development suggests that rebound from 164.31 has completed at 170.81. Risk will now stay on the downside as long as 170.87 resistance holds. Below 168.01 will target 167.31 support first. Break there will target 164.01 support next.

In the bigger picture, a medium top was formed at 171.58 after brief breach of 169.96 (2008 high). But as long as 55 W EMA (now at 166.81) holds, price actions from there is seen as correcting the rise from 153.15 only. That is, larger up trend remains in favor to continue. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that larger scale correction is underway and target 153.15 support.

EUR/JPY’s rise from 137.37 resumed last week and hit as high as 147.14. Initial bias remains on the upside for retesting 148.38 high. Firm break there will resume larger up trend. On the downside, below 145.77 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 142.53 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 140.18) holds, larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still in progress for 149.76 long term resistance. Decisive break there will resume long term up trend. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 148.38 at 135.40.

In the long term picture, outlook will stay bullish as long as 134.11 resistance turned support holds (2021 high). Sustained break of 149.76 (2014 high) will open up further rally, as resumption of the rise from 94.11 (2012 low), towards 169.96 (2008 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 128.46; (P) 128.99; (R1) 129.41; More…

EUR/JPY is staying in the consolidation pattern from 130.76 and intraday bias remains neutral. Deeper fall might be seen. But downside should be contained by 127.43 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 122.39 to 130.76 at 127.56) and bring rebound. Above 130.76 will extend the larger rally to next key fibonacci level at 134.20.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) is completed at 109.03 (2016 low). Current rally from 109.03 should be at the same degree as the fall from 149.76 to 109.03. Further rise is expected to 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20. Sustained break there will pave the way to key long term resistance zone at 141.04/149.76. Medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 124.08 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 119.45; (P) 119.88; (R1) 120.13; More….

EUR/JPY’s decline from 122.87 is in progress and hits as low as 118.86 so far. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 100% projection of 122.87 to 119.77 from 121.15 at 118.05 next. On the upside, above 119.55 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But recovery should be limited well below 121.15 resistance to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY is still staying in the falling channel established since 137.49 (2018 high). Thus, outlook remains bearish. Rise from 115.86 is seen as a corrective rise, which might have completed. Firm break of 115.86 will resume the down trend to 114.84 support next.

EUR/JPY’s decline from 126.75 accelerated lower last week but stays above 124.31 support so far. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and further rise could be seen. Break of 126.75 will resume the rally from 114.42. However, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, firm break of 124.31 should confirm short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 123.03), to correct the rally from 114.42.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) could have completed at 114.42 already. Rise from 114.42 would target 61.8% retracement of 137.49 to 114.42 at 128.67 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to 137.49 (2018 high). This will remain the preferred case for now, as long as 55 day EMA (now at 123.03) holds. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA will revive medium term bearishness for another low below 114.42 at a later stage.

In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 124.54) should confirm the start of another medium term rising leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.61; (P) 129.88; (R1) 130.41; More….

EUR/JPY’s rebound from 127.36 resumed and hit as high as 130.21 so far. Current development suggests that whole consolidation from 134.11 has completed with three waves down to 127.36, ahead of 126.58 medium term fibonacci level. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 133.44/134.11 resistance zone. On the downside, however, break of 129.25 minor support will dampen this bullish view and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 38.2% retracement of 114.42 (2020 low) to 134.11 at 126.58 holds, up trend from 114.42 is still in favor to continue. Break of 134.11 will target long term resistance at 137.49 (2018 high). However, sustained break of 126.58 will raise the chance of medium term bearish reversal. In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 121.94, and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 127.54; (P) 127.86; (R1) 128.07; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for consolidations below 128.44 temporary top. Deeper retreat cannot be ruled out. But downside should be contained well above 125.07 support to bring another rally. On the upside, sustained break of 128.67 long term fibonacci level will confirm medium term upside momentum, and target 100% projection of 121.63 to 127.48 from 125.07 at 130.92 next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 is seen as a medium term rising leg inside a long term sideway pattern. Further rise is expected as long as 125.07 support holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 137.49 (2018 high) to 114.42 at 128.67. Sustained trading above there will indicate solid upside momentum and target 137.49 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 125.07 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.69; (P) 131.19; (R1) 131.58; More….

EUR/JPY’s rally continues today and reaches as high as 132.15, breaking 131.97 resistance. Intraday bias stays on the upside for key fibonacci resistance at 132.56. sustained break there should pave the way to retest 137.49 high. On the downside, below 130.89 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But near term outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as channel support holds (now at 129.42).

In the bigger picture, as long as 124.08 key resistance turned support, larger up trend from 109.03 (2016 low) remains in favor to continue. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 137.49 to 124.61 at 132.56 will pave the way to retest 137.49 high. However, firm break of 124.08 will argue that whole rise from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49. Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 119.90 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 119.14; (P) 119.63; (R1) 120.24; More….

Outlook in EUR/JPY remains unchanged as sideway trading continues. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Further decline remains mildly in favor with 121.39 resistance intact. larger rebound from 115.86 should have completed at 122.87. Break of 118.37 will target 100% projection of 122.87 to 118.46 from 121.39 at 116.98 next. However, firm break of 121.39 will revive near term bullishness and bring retest of 122.87 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains bearish as the cross is staying well inside falling channel established since 137.49 (2018 high). It was also just rejected by 55 week EMA. Break of 115.86 will extend the down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) to 114.84 support next.