EUR/JPY’s consolidation from 124.08 continued last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Break of 124.08 will extend the larger rally from 109.20 to 126.09 key resistance next. On the downside below 120.54 will bring another fall. But in that case, downside should be contained by 118.45 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 109.20 to 124.08 at 118.39) and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 109.20 medium term bottom are seen as part of a medium term corrective pattern from 149.76. There is prospect of another rise towards 126.09 key resistance level before completion. But even in that case, we’d expect strong resistance between 126.09 and 141.04 to limit upside, at least on first attempt.

In the long term picture, current medium term decline from 149.76 is seen as part of a long term sideway pattern from 88.96. Decisive break of 126.09 will indicate that such decline is completed and EUR/JPY has started another medium term rally already.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.69; (P) 145.17; (R1) 146.00; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. Correction from 148.38 might have completed at 142.54. Break of 147.09 resistance will indicate that larger up trend is ready to resume through 148.38 high. However, on the downside, sustained break of 142.65 will bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 139.11 and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of medium term topping yet. Up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) could still resume through 148.38 to 149.76 (2014 high). However, break of 137.32 support argue that a medium term correction has already started to correct the whole up trend from 114.42.

EUR/JPY spiraled higher to 121.14 last week but failed to take out 121.39 resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and outlook is unchanged. Consolidation from 115.86 could extend with another rise. On the upside, break of 121.39 will target 122.87 resistance. On the downside, sustained break of 115.86 will indicate larger down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains bearish as the cross is staying well inside falling channel established since 137.49 (2018 high). As long as 122.87 resistance holds, the down trend should resume sooner or later to 114.84 support next. However, sustained break of 122.87 will complete a double bottom (115.86, 116.12) which could indicate medium term bullish reversal.

In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Fall from 137.49 is seen as a falling leg inside the pattern. This falling leg would target 109.48 (2016 low). With EUR/JPY staying below 55 month EMA (now at 125.11), this is the preferred case.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.73; (P) 157.66; (R1) 159.25; More…

EUR/JPY’s break of 158.55 resistance suggests that rebound from 153.15 is resuming. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Further rally should be seen to 100% projection of 153.15 to 158.55 from 155.06 at 160.46. For now, risk will stay mildly on the upside as long as 155.06 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 164.29 medium term top are tentatively seen as a correction to rise from 139.05 for now. As long as 148.48 resistance turned support holds (2022 high), larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) could still resume through 164.29 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.86; (P) 130.22; (R1) 130.90; More…

EUR/JPY’s consolidation from 130.76 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral first. Another fall could be seen. But downside should be contained by 127.43 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 122.39 to 130.76 at 127.56) and bring rebound. Above 130.76 will extend the larger rally to next key fibonacci level at 134.20.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) is completed at 109.03 (2016 low). Current rally from 109.03 should be at the same degree as the fall from 149.76 to 109.03. Further rise is expected to 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20. Sustained break there will pave the way to key long term resistance zone at 141.04/149.76. Medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 124.08 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 164.23; (P) 164.79; (R1) 165.22; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is turned neutral first with current retreat. Some consolidations could be seen but downside should be contained by 55 4H EMA (now at 163.19) to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 165.33 will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 153.15 to 163.70 from 160.20 at 166.71.

In the bigger picture, current rally is part of the up trend from 114.42 (2020 low), which is still in progress. Next target is 169.96 (2008 high). Break of 160.20 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 128.26; (P) 128.60; (R1) 128.98; More….

EUR/JPY is staying in consolidation from 129.96 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Further rally is expected as long as 127.48 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, above 129.96 will resume the up trend from 121.63 to 121.63 to 127.48 from 125.07 at 130.92 next. However, firm break of 127.48 will turn bias to the downside, for deeper decline to 125.07 support.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 is seen as a medium term rising leg inside a long term sideway pattern. Further rise is expected as long as 125.07 support holds. Sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 137.49 (2018 high) to 114.42 at 128.67 will pave the way to 137.49 resistance next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 117.49; (P) 117.84; (R1) 118.15;  More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral with focus on 117.55 minor support. Firm break there will suggest completion of rebound from 115.86. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for retesting 115.86 first. On the upside, break of 120.01 will resume the rebound through 61.8% retracement of 123.35 to 115.86 at 120.48.

In the bigger picture, as long as 120.78 support turned resistance holds, down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) should still be in progress. Break of 115.86 will target 109.48 (2016 low) and below. However, sustained break of 120.78 will be the first indication of medium term reversal. Further rise would then be seen to 127.50 resistance for confirmation.

EUR/JPY recovered further last week as consolidations from 120.78 extended. Further rise could be seen initially this week. But upside should be limited by 123.73 resistance to bring larger fall resumption. On the downside, below 121.65 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 120.78 low. Decisive break there will resume the decline from 127.50 and target 118.62 low next.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 137.49 is still in progress with the cross staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 118.62 will extend the fall to 109.48 (2016 low). On the upside, break of 127.50 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of strong rebound.

In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Fall from 137.49 is seen as a falling leg inside the pattern. Break of 118.62 will extend this falling leg through 109.48 (2016 low). With EUR/JPY staying below 55 month EMA, this is now the preferred case.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.36; (P) 121.70; (R1) 122.27; More…

EUR/JPY recovered after breaching 121.18 resistance turned support and intraday bias remains neutral. No change in the bullish outlook for the moment and another rise is expected. Above 122.88 will target 124.08. Decisive break there will extend larger rise from 109.20 and target 126.09 key resistance next. However, firm break of 121.18 will likely extend the whole corrective pattern fro 124.08 with another falling leg towards 118.23 low again.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that medium term rise from 109.20 is still in progress. Focus is now on 126.09 key resistance level. Sustained break will confirm completion of the whole decline from 149.76. And rise from 109.20 is of the same degree as the fall from 149.76. In such case, further rally would be seen to 104.04 resistance and possibly above before topping. Meanwhile, rejection from 126.09 will extend the fall from 149.76 through 109.209 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 128.27; (P) 128.54; (R1) 129.09; More….

EUR/JPY’s rebound from 127.36 resumed by taking out 129.09 minor resistance. The development also raises the chance that fall from 133.44, as well as corrective pattern from 134.11 have completed. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 129.51) will affirm this bullish case and target 133.44/134.11 resistance zone. On the downside, break of 127.99 minor support will resume fall from 133.44 through 127.36 to 126.58 medium term fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, as long as 38.2% retracement of 114.42 (2020 low) to 134.11 at 126.58 holds, up trend from 114.42 is still in favor to continue. Break of 134.11 will target long term resistance at 137.49 (2018 high). However, sustained break of 126.58 will raise the chance of medium term bearish reversal. In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 121.94, and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.36; (P) 162.40; (R1) 163.11; More…

Risk in EUR/JPY remains on the downside as long as 163.70 short term top holds. Fall from there would extend to channel support (now at 161.06). Firm break there will target 38.2% retracement of 153.15 to 163.70 at 159.66.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 164.29 medium term top are seen as a correction to rise from 139.05 only. As long as 148.38 resistance turned support holds (2022 high), larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is expected to resume through 164.29 at a later stage. Next target would be 169.96 (2008 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 153.85; (P) 154.62; (R1) 155.18; More….

EUR/JPY is still bounded in consolidation below 155.37 temporary top and intraday bias stays neutral. Downside of retreat should be contained above 151.60 resistance turned support to bring another rally. Break of 155.37 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 139.05 to 151.60 from 146.12 at 158.67.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 124.37 to 148.38 from 138.81 at 162.82. For now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 148.38 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 127.81; (P) 128.25; (R1) 128.51; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains mildly on the downside at this point. Firm break of 127.91 low will will resume whole fall from 134.11 and target 127.07 resistance turned support. Sustained break there will carry larger bearish implication and pave the way to 121.91 fibonacci level. On the upside, however, break of 129.65 will turn bias back to the upside for 130.73 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 is seen as a medium term rising leg inside a long term sideway pattern. As long as 127.07 resistance turned support holds, further rise is still expected to retest 137.49 (2018 high). However, firm break of 127.07 will argue that the medium term trend has reversed, deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 114.42 to 134.11 at 121.94.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 128.72; (P) 129.04; (R1) 129.47; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is turned neutral with current recovery. On the upside, above 129.63 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 130.73. Firm break there will reaffirm the case that whole correction from 134.11 has completed, and turn near term outlook bullish. On the downside, though, break of 128.59 will bring deeper fall to 127.91 support.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 is seen as a medium term rising leg inside a long term sideway pattern. As long as 127.07 resistance turned support holds, further rise is still expected to retest 137.49 (2018 high). However, firm break of 127.07 will argue that the medium term trend has reversed, deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 114.42 to 134.11 at 121.94.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.72; (P) 157.11; (R1) 157.82; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is turned neutral with current retreat but outlook is unchanged. Decisive break of 157.99/158.03 will resume larger up trend to 162.82 projection level next. However, break of 155.10 will extend the corrective pattern from 157.99 with another falling leg instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 151.60 resistance turned support holds, rise from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. On resumption, next target is 100% projection of 124.37 to 148.38 from 138.81 at 162.82. Nevertheless, sustained break of 151.60 will argue that larger correction is already underway. Deeper decline would be seen to 55 W EMA (now at 145.56).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.68; (P) 149.53; (R1) 149.99; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 151.60 is extending. Downside should be contained by 146.85 support to bring another rally. Break of 151.60 will resume larger up trend to 153.64 projection level. Nevertheless, firm break of 146.85 will confirm short term topping and turn bias to the downside for deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, current development indicates that rise from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 148.38 from 138.81 at 153.64. Sustained break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 162.82. For now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 138.81 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 127.41; (P) 127.93; (R1) 128.35; More….

EUR/JPY’s fall from 133.12 is still in progress. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 124.89 support next. On the upside, above 128.44 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But break of 130.20 resistance is needed to indicate completion of the fall from 133.12. Otherwise, near term outlook will now be mildly bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, as long as 124.08 key resistance turn supported holds, larger up trend from 109.03 (2016 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 137.49 structural resistance will target 141.04/149.76 resistance zone next. However, decisive break of 124.08 will argue that such rise from 109.03 has completed and turn outlook bearish. In that case, deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 119.90.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 158.88; (P) 159.36; (R1) 160.02; More….

EUR/JPY’s fall from 164.29 is in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside. Sustained break of 161.8% projection of 164.29 to 161.22 from 163.70 at 158.73 will target 154.32 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 139.05 to 164.29 at 154.64). On the upside, above 159.83 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, bearish divergence condition in 55 D EMA indicates that a medium term top could be formed at 164.29 already, after hitting rising channel resistance. But price actions from there are tentatively seen as a correction only. There is no clear sign that the up trend from 144.42 (2020 low) has completed yet. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 152.12) holds, another rally through 164.29 is still in favor as a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.48; (P) 133.03; (R1) 133.38; More….

EUR/JPY’s strong break of 132.51 support suggests that rise from 121.63 has completed at 134.11, just ahead of 100% projection of 114.42 to 127.07 from 121.63 at 134.28. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Sustained break of 55 day EMA (now at 131.96) will pave the way to 38.2% retracement of 121.63 to 134.11 at 129.34. On the upside, above 132.87 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 is seen as a medium term rising leg inside a long term sideway pattern. Next target is 137.49 (2018 high). Decisive break there will open up the possibility that it’s indeed resuming the up trend from 94.11 (2012 low). For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 127.07 resistance turned support holds, in case of pull back.