EUR/JPY stayed in range of 133.03/136.63 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Outlook will remains bullish as long as 133.03 support holds. Break of 136.63 will medium term up trend. However, on the downside, break of 133.03 will have 55 day EMA and medium term channel support firmly taken out. Also, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD too, that will suggest medium term reversal. Deeper fall should then be seen to 132.04 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 109.03 (2016 low) is seen as at the same degree as the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) to 109.03 (2016 low). It should be targeting 141.04/149.76 resistance zone. On the downside, break of 132.04 support is needed to indicate medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of deep pull back.

In the long term picture, at this point, there is no clear indication that rise from 109.03 is resuming that from 94.11 (2012 low). Hence, we’d be cautious on topping below 149.76 to extend range trading. Nonetheless, firm break of 149.76 will indicates strong underlying buying. In such case, EUR/JPY will target 100% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 from 109.03 at 164.68.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 120.60; (P) 120.87; (R1) 121.09; More….

EUR/JPY is staying in consolidation from 119.77 and intraday bias remains neutral. As long as 121.26 resistance holds, further decline is expected. As noted before, corrective rise from 115.86 should be completed at 122.87, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. On the downside, break of 119.77 will pave the way to retest 115.86 low. However, firm break of 121.26 will dampen this bearish view and turn focus back to 122.87 high instead.

In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY is still staying in the falling channel established since 137.49 (2018 high). Thus, outlook remains bearish. Rise from 115.86 is seen as a corrective rise, which might have completed. Firm break of 115.86 will resume the down trend to 114.84 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 128.85; (P) 129.15; (R1) 129.58; More…

EUR/JPY is staying in consolidation from 130.76 short term top. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Deeper fall might be seen. But downside should be contained by 127.43 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 122.39 to 130.76 at 127.56) and bring rebound. Above 130.76 will extend the larger rally to next key fibonacci level at 134.20.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) is completed at 109.03 (2016 low). Current rally from 109.03 should be at the same degree as the fall from 149.76 to 109.03. Further rise is expected to 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20. Sustained break there will pave the way to key long term resistance zone at 141.04/149.76. Medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 124.08 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 124.14; (P) 124.42; (R1) 124.83; More…

EUR/JPY rises notably today but it’s staying below 125.80 resistance so far. Intraday bias stays neutral first as the consolidation from 125.80 might extend. Below 123.65 minor support will bring another falling leg towards 122.39. In that case, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 114.84 to 125.80 at 121.61 to bring rebound and then rise resumption. On the upside, decisive break of 125.80/126.09 resistance zone will extend the whole rise from 109.03 to 100% projection of 109.03 to 124.08 from 114.84 at 129.89.

In the bigger picture, focus is staying on 126.09 support turned resistance. Decisive break there will confirm completion of the down trend from 149.76. And in such case, rise from 109.20 is at the same degree and should target 141.04 resistance and above. Meanwhile, rejection from 126.09 and break of 114.84 will extend the fall from 149.76 through 109.20 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.87; (P) 133.49; (R1) 133.89; More…

EUR/JPY continues stay in range below 134.39 and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, decisive break of 134.39 high will confirm up trend resumption. In such case, EUR/JPY should target 141.04 long term resistance. However, firm break of 131.69 will be an early sign of medium term reversal and will target 127.55 key support level.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 109.03 (2016 low) is seen as at the same degree as the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) to 109.03 (2016 low). 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to key long term resistance zone at 141.04/149.76. However, break of 127.55 support will argue that the medium term trend has reversed and will turn outlook bearish for deeper fall.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 120.18; (P) 120.66; (R1) 120.97; More…

A temporary top is in place at 121.18 in EUR/JPY and intraday bias is turned neutral first. At this point, we’re still favoring the case that corrective fall from 124.08 has completed at 118.23 already, after defending 118.45 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 109.20 to 124.08 at 118.39). Decisive break of 121.32 resistance should confirm this case and target 124.08 high next. However, break of 119.45 support should invalidate this bullish view and would likely extend the fall from 124.08 through 118.23.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 109.20 medium term bottom are seen as part of a medium term corrective pattern from 149.76. Strong rebound from 118.45 resistance turned support suggests that it’s still in progress. Break of 124.08 will target 126.09 key resistance level. We’d be cautious on strong resistance there to limit upside. However, sustained break there will be a strong sign of medium term momentum and could target 141.04 resistance next.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 124.60; (P) 124.87; (R1) 125.34; More…

EUR/JPY’s rebound from 122.39 extended further to 125.35 but it’s still limited below 125.80/126.09 resistance zone. Intraday bias stays neutral first. On the upside, decisive break of 125.80/126.09 resistance zone will extend the whole rise from 109.03 to 100% projection of 109.03 to 124.08 from 114.84 at 129.89. On the downside, below 123.65 minor support will extend the consolidation from 125.80 with another falling leg. In that case, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 114.84 to 125.80 at 121.61 to bring rebound and then rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, focus is staying on 126.09 support turned resistance. Decisive break there will confirm completion of the down trend from 149.76. And in such case, rise from 109.20 is at the same degree and should target 141.04 resistance and above. Meanwhile, rejection from 126.09 and break of 114.84 will extend the fall from 149.76 through 109.20 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.21; (P) 121.71; (R1) 122.09; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains mildly on the downside for the moment. Consolidation pattern from 120.78 should have completed with three waves to 123.35. Decisive break of 120.78 low will resume larger fall from 127.50 to 118.62 low next. On the upside, in case of another rise, upside should be limited below 123.73 to bring down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 137.49 is still in progress with the cross staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 118.62 will extend the fall to 109.48 (2016 low). On the upside, break of 127.50 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of strong rebound.

EUR/JPY edged higher to 122.88 last week but reversed since then. The break of 121.18 support dampened the immediately bullish view. It argues that rebound from 118.23 is completed and the consolidation pattern from 124.08 is extending with another falling leg.

Initial bias is now mildly on the downside this week for 120.01 support. Break will target 118.45 key cluster support level again (38.2% retracement of 109.20 to 124.08 at 118.39). At this point, we’d expect strong support from 118.39/45 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 122.24 minor resistance will suggest that fall from 122.88 is merely a pull back. And intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 124.08 high.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that medium term rise from 109.20 is still in progress. Focus is on 126.09 key resistance level. Sustained break will confirm completion of the whole decline from 149.76. And rise from 109.20 is of the same degree as the fall from 149.76. In such case, further rally would be seen to 104.04 resistance and possibly above before topping. Meanwhile, rejection from 126.09, or firm break of 118.45 cluster support, will likely extend the fall from 149.76 through 109.20 low.

In the long term picture, medium term decline from 149.76 is seen as part of a long term sideway pattern from 88.96. Decisive break of 126.09 will indicate that such decline is completed and EUR/JPY has started another medium term rally already. Before that, deeper fall is mildly in favor towards 94.11 low. Overall,, long term rang trading will continue.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 119.71; (P) 120.01; (R1) 120.31; More…

EUR/JPY is still bounded in range of 119.32/121.32. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the downside, below 119.32 will extend the corrective fall from 124.08. In that case, we’d expect strong support from 118.45 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 109.20 to 124.08 at 118.39) to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 121.32 minor resistance should revive the case that such correction is completed. And, intraday bias would then be turned back to the upside for 123.30/124.08 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 109.20 medium term bottom are seen as part of a medium term corrective pattern from 149.76. There is prospect of another rise towards 126.09 key resistance level before completion. But even in that case, we’d expect strong resistance between 126.09 and 141.04 to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Nonetheless, decisive break of 118.45 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 109.20 to 124.08 at 118.39) will argue that rise from 109.20 is completed and turn outlook bearish for 61.8% retracement at 114.88 and below.

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EUR/JPY’s fall from 124.08 continued last week and reached as low as 115.19. The development is consistent with our view that corrective rise from 109.20 has completed at 124.08. And further fall is expected to retest 109.20.

Initial bias in EUR/JPY remains on the downside this week for 61.8% retracement of 109.20 to 124.08 at 114.88. Sustained break of 114.88 will pave the way for retesting 109.20 low. On the upside, above 116.54 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited by 118.23 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term corrective rise from 109.20 should have completed at 124.08, ahead of 126.09 support turned resistance. Medium term down trend from 149.76 is likely resuming. Break of 109.20 will target 94.11 low. In any case, break of 126.09 is needed needed to confirm medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, medium term decline from 149.76 is seen as part of a long term sideway pattern from 88.96. Such decline is still in progress and could target 94.11 low. At this point, we’d look for loss of downside momentum above 94.11 to signal bottoming and reversal. This bearish view will hold as long as 126.09 resistance holds.

EUR/JPY edged lower to 118.46 last week but reversed from there. Break of 121.15 resistance argues that fall from 122.87 has completed with three waves down to 118.46. That in turn argues that larger rise from 115.86 is not finished. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for retesting 122.87 resistance. On the downside, however, break of 120.09 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 118.46 instead.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains bearish as the cross is staying well inside falling channel established since 137.49 (2018 high). It was also just rejected by 55 week EMA. Break of 115.86 will extend the down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) to 114.84 support next.

In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Fall from 137.49 is seen as a falling leg inside the pattern. This falling leg would target 109.48 (2016 low). With EUR/JPY staying below 55 month EMA (now at 125.42), this is the preferred case.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.89; (P) 135.53; (R1) 136.26; More….

EUR/JPY’s break of 137.52 minor resistance argues that pull back from 139.99 has completed at 134.76 already. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 139.99 high first. Firm break there will resume larger up trend. In the downside, in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 124.37 to 139.99 at 134.02 to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. Such rise is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 109.30 (2016 low). Next target will be 100% projection of 114.42 to 134.11 from 124.37 at 144.06. In any case, outlook will now remain bullish as long as 124.37 support holds, in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 128.72; (P) 129.13; (R1) 129.95; More….

Focus is now on 129.65 minor resistance in EUR/JPY with current rebound. Firm break there will bring stronger rise to 130.73 resistance. Sustained break there will argue that whole pattern from 134.11 has completed and turn near term outlook bullish for retesting this high. On the downside, break of 127.91 will resume the fall from 134.11 and target 127.07 resistance turned support. Sustained break there will carry larger bearish implication and pave the way to 121.91 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 is seen as a medium term rising leg inside a long term sideway pattern. As long as 127.07 resistance turned support holds, further rise is still expected to retest 137.49 (2018 high). However, firm break of 127.07 will argue that the medium term trend has reversed, deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 114.42 to 134.11 at 121.94.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.49; (P) 129.73; (R1) 129.87; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 128.58 is extending. Outlook stays stays bearish with 131.07 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 128.85 will resume the fall from 134.11 to 127.07 resistance turned support next. On the upside, break of 131.07 resistance will argue that choppy fall from 134.11 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 132.68 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 is seen as a medium term rising leg inside a long term sideway pattern. As long as 127.07 resistance turned support holds, further rise is still expected to retest 137.49 (2018 high). However, firm break of 127.07 will argue that the medium term trend has reversed, and open up the case for retesting 114.42.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 119.98; (P) 120.13; (R1) 120.26; More….

At this point, further decline remains in favor in EUR/JPY despite today’s recovery. Break of 119.24 support will resume the decline from 121.46 and should target 100% projection of 121.46 to 119.24 from 121.01 at 118.79. On the upside, break of 121.01 will bring retest of 121.46 instead.

In the bigger picture, the rebound from 115.86 medium term bottom is seen as a corrective rise only. In case of another rise, strong resistance should be seen from falling channel resistance (now at 125.14) to limit upside. Break of 117.07 support will be an early sign of resumption of down trend from 137.49 through 115.86 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.69; (P) 133.15; (R1) 133.84; More…

At this point, EUR/JPY is still staying in range of 131.69/134.39. Intraday bias remains neutral first. With 131.69 support intact, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. Decisive break of 134.39 high will indicate up trend resumption. Next target will be 141.04 long term resistance. Nonetheless, firm break of 131.69 will be an early sign of medium term reversal and will target 127.55 key support level.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 109.03 (2016 low) is seen as at the same degree as the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) to 109.03 (2016 low). 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to key long term resistance zone at 141.04/149.76. However, break of 127.55 support will argue that the medium term trend has reversal and will turn outlook bearish for deeper fall.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 117.60; (P) 118.00; (R1) 118.49; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the downside at this point. Current downtrend should target 114.84 support next. On the upside, above 118.74 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations again first.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 137.49 is still in progress. It’s seen as a falling leg of multi-year sideway pattern. Deeper fall could be seen to 109.48 (2016 low and below). On the upside, break of 127.50 resistance is needed to be the confirm medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.52; (P) 129.68; (R1) 129.98; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains mildly on the upside and rebound from 127.91 could target 130.73 resistance. Firm break there will argue that correction from 134.11 has completed and turn near term outlook bullish for retesting this high. On the downside, break of 129.03 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 127.91 instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 is seen as a medium term rising leg inside a long term sideway pattern. As long as 127.07 resistance turned support holds, further rise is still expected to retest 137.49 (2018 high). However, firm break of 127.07 will argue that the medium term trend has reversed, deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 114.42 to 134.11 at 121.94.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 128.51; (P) 129.08; (R1) 129.68; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 130.76 temporary top. Near term outlook remains bullish as long as 127.99 support holds. Above 130.76 will target 100% projection of 114.84 to 125.80 from 122.39 at 133.35 next. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 127.99 will bring deeper pull back 55 day EMA (now at 125.24).

In the bigger picture, the break of 126.09 support turned resistance should have confirmed completion of down trend form 149.76 (2014 high), at 109.03 (2016 low). Current rise from 109.03 would now target 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20 and above. Medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 122.39 support holds.