EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8497; (P) 0.8515; (R1) 0.8542; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for the moment. Further rise is mildly in favor as long as 0.8479 minor support holds. Above 0.8595 will extend the rebound from 0.8276 to 38.2% retracement of 0.9324 to 0.8276 at 0.8676. However, firm break of 0.8479 will indicate completion of the rebound, and turn bias to the downside for retesting 0.8276 low.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.9324 medium term top is till in progress. As long as 0.8786 support turned resistance holds, further fall is expected to 61.8% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9324 at 0.7848. Nevertheless, break of 0.8786 will argue that fall from 0.9324 has completed and turn focus back to this high.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8649; (P) 0.8672; (R1) 0.8695; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, firm break of 0.8720 resistance will indicate resumption of whole rise from 0.8201. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for 100% projection of 0.8201 to 0.8720 from 0.8338 at 0.8857. On the downside, however, break of 0.8565 support will indicate rejection by 0.8720 and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, focus is back on 38.2% retracement of 0.9499 to 0.8201 at 0.8697. Sustained break there will argue that rise from 0.8201 is a medium term up trend, rather than a correction. Next target is 61.8% retracement at 0.9003. Rejection by 0.8697 again will maintain medium term bearishness, for extending the down trend from 0.9499 (2020 high) at a later stage.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8602; (P) 0.8639; (R1) 0.8678; More…

EUR/GBP is staying in consolidation from 0.8575 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Another recovery could be seen but upside should be limited by 0.8811 minor resistance to bring decline resumption. On the downside, break of 0.8575 will target 100% projection of 0.9324 to 0.8786 from 0.9019 at 0.8481, which is close to 0.8472 key support.

In the bigger picture, we’re now seeing 0.9324 as a medium term top on bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Price actions from there should develop into a corrective pattern. Deeper fall should be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9324 at 0.8411 but strong support should be seen there, at least on first attempt, to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.9324 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside even in case of strong rebound.

EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook

EUR/GBP dropped to as low as 0.8908 last week. The close below 55 day EMA argues that rebound choppy rebound from 0.8670 has already completed at 0.9175. Initial bias is now on the downside for 0.8864 support first. Break there should confirm this bearish case and target 0.8670 and below. On the upside, though, break of 0.8974 resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’s still seeing the fall from 0.9499 as developing into a corrective pattern. That is, up trend form 0.6935 (2015 low) would resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.8276 support holds.

In the long term picture, rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) is still in progress. It could be resuming long term up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). Break of 0.9799 is expected down the road, as long as 0.8276 support holds.

EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook

EUR/GBP’s rebound from 0.8338 extended higher last week but outlook is unchanged. Fall from 0.8720 is still expected to resume as long as 0.8585 resistance holds. Firm break of 0.8338 support will target a retest on 0.8201 low.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests rejection by 38.2% retracement of 0.9499 to 0.8201 at 0.8697. Medium term bearishness is maintained. Break of 0.8201 will resume larger down trend from 0.9499 (2020 high). Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.8697 will affirm the case that rise from 0.8201 is a medium term up trend itself.

In the long term picture, the lack of medium term downside momentum suggests that fall from 0.9499 (2020 high) is merely a correction to rise from 0.6935 (2015 high). In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9499 at 0.7917 to bring rebound. Sustained trading above 55 month EMA (now at 0.8591) will indicate that the correction has completed and bring retest of 0.9499.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8534; (P) 0.8552; (R1) 0.8568; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 0.8497 will resume extend recent fall to 0.8464 projection level. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, sustained break of 0.8571 will confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.8764 is seen as another leg in the whole down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high). Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8713 resistance holds. Break of 0.8491 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8977 to 0.8491 from 0.8764 at 0.8464.

EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook

EUR/GBP failed to break through 0.9175 last week and reversed since then. But overall, it’s seen as staying in consolidation pattern from 0.9175. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of 0.9175 resistance will resume whole rise from 0.8670. Nevertheless, break of 0.8930 will bring deeper fall to 0.8864 support and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, while the pull back from 0.9499 was deep, there is no sign of trend reversal yet. The up trend from 0.6935 (2015 low) should resume at a later stage to 61.8% projection of 0.6935 to 0.9263 from 0.8276 at 0.9715. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.8276 support holds.

In the long term picture, rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) is still in progress. It could be resuming long term up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). Decisive break of 0.9799 will target 100% projection of 0.5680 to 0.9799 from 0.6935 at 1.1054.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8542; (P) 0.8571; (R1) 0.8585; More…

Breach of 0.8559 minor support suggests that rebound from 0.8491 has completed at 0.8609. Intraday bias in EUR/GBP is back on the downside for retesting 0.8491 low first. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8667 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9499 (2020 high). Further decline is in favor as long as 0.8667 resistance holds. Break of 0.8502 will resume the fall towards 0.8201 (2022 low).

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8435; (P) 0.8449; (R1) 0.8474; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP is turned neutral with current recovery, and some consolidations could be seen. But further fall is still expected. Break of 0.8420 temporary low will resume the larger down trend from 0.9499 to 0.8276 key long term support next. On the upside, though, sustained break of 55 day EMA (now at 0.8533) will bring stronger rebound back to 0.8656 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9499 (2020 high) are still seen as developing into a corrective pattern. Deeper fall could be seen as long as 0.8656 resistance holds, towards long term support at 0.8276. However, firm break of 0.8656 resistance would argue that a medium term bottom was already formed. Stronger rise would be seen to 0.8861 support turned resistance to confirm completion of the corrective pattern.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8553; (P) 0.8572; (R1) 0.8587; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral at this point, and outlook is unchanged. On the downside, below 0.8543 will target a test on 0.8502 low. Decisive break there will resume larger decline from 0.8977. On the upside, above 0.8618 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.8700, and possibly further to 0.8717 key support turned resistance.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9499 (2020 high). Firm break of 0.8717 support turned resistance will argue that it has completed with three waves down to 0.8502. Further break of 0.8977 will bring retest of 0.9267 high. Nevertheless, rejection by 0.8717, followed by break of 0.8502 will resume the decline towards 0.8201 (2022 low).

EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook

EUR/GBP dropped sharply last week still stayed above 0.8861 support. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, decisive break of 0.8861 will indicate that whole choppy rise from 0.8670 has completed. The pattern from 0.9499 should have then started a third leg to 0.8670 support and below. Nevertheless, rebound from the current level will retain near term bullishness, for another rise through 0.9291 at a later stage.

In the bigger picture, we’re seeing the price actions from 0.9499 as developing into a corrective pattern. That is, up trend from 0.6935 (2015 low) would resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.8276 support holds. Decisive break of 0.9499 will target 0.9799 (2008 high).

In the long term picture, rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) is still in progress. It could be resuming long term up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). Break of 0.9799 (2008 high) is expected down the road, as long as 0.8276 support holds.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8827; (P) 0.8851; (R1) 0.8879; More

At this point, intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral at the moment as sideway trading continues. On the upside, decisive break of 0.9032 will confirm completion of the decline from 0.9305. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 0.9305 key resistance. On the on the downside, break of 0.8732 will resume the fall and target 0.8303 key support level instead.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways to interpret price actions from 0.9304 high. But after all, firm break of 0.9304/5 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, range trading will continue with risk of deeper fall. And in that case, EUR/GBP could have a retest on 0.8303. But we’d expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.

EUR/GBP 4 Hours Chart

EUR/GBP Daily Chart

EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook

EUR/GBP’s decline from 0.9305 accelerated last week and reached as low as 0.8773. Such fall is seen as the third leg of the consolidation from 0.9304. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 61.8% retracement of 0.8312 to 0.9305 at 0.8691 and below. We’ll look for bottoming signal again at it approaches 0.8303 support. On the upside, above 0.8981 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. It’s still in progress with fall from 0.9305 as the third leg. Break of 0.8303 could be seen. But we’d expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside. Whole up trend from 0.6935 is expected to resume after consolidation from 0.9304 completes.

In the long term picture, firstly, price action from 0.9799 (2008 high) is seen as a long term corrective pattern and should have completed at 0.6935 (2015 low). Secondly, rise from 0.6935 is likely resuming up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). Thirdly, this is supported by the impulsive structure of the rise from 0.6935 to 0.9304. Hence, after the correction from 0.9304 completes, we’d expect another medium term up trend through 0.9799 to 61.8% projection of 0.5680 to 0.9799 from 0.6935 at 1.1054.

EUR/GBP 4 Hours Chart

EUR/GBP Daily Chart

EUR/GBP Weekly Chart

EUR/GBP Monthly Chart

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8747; (P) 0.8763; (R1) 0.8786; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays on the downside for the moment. It’s now in the third leg in the corrective pattern from 0.9499. Further decline is expected and break of 0.8670 support will target 161.8% projection of 0.9291 to 0.8861 from 0.9229 at 0.8533. On the upside, break of 0.8838 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, we’re seeing the price actions from 0.9499 as developing into a corrective pattern. That is, up trend from 0.6935 (2015 low) would resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.8276 support holds. Decisive break of 0.9499 will target 0.9799 (2008 high).

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8410; (P) 0.8431; (R1) 0.8452; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for the moment. While stronger recovery might be seen, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8585 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 0.8338 will resume the decline from 0.8720 to retest 0.8201 low.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests rejection by 38.2% retracement of 0.9499 to 0.8201 at 0.8697. Medium term bearishness is maintained. Break of 0.8201 will resume larger down trend from 0.9499 (2020 high). Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.8697 will affirm the case that rise from 0.8201 is a medium term up trend itself.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8517; (P) 0.8533; (R1) 0.8542; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral at this point. Below 0.8521 will resume the fall from 0.8764 to retest 0.8491. Break there will extend larger down trend to 0.8464 projection level. On the upside, above 0.8566 minor resistance will suggest short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD. Intraday bias will be turned to the upside for stronger rebound to 55 D EMA (now at 0.8607).

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.8764 is seen as another leg in the whole down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high). Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8713 resistance holds. Break of 0.8491 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8977 to 0.8491 from 0.8764 at 0.8464.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8543; (P) 0.8560; (R1) 0.8584; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral at this point. On the downside, break of of 0.8529 will resume the choppy decline towards retesting 0.8470 low. On the upside, decisive break of 0.8670 will confirm that corrective fall from 0.8718 has completed. Further rise would be seen to resume the rebound from 0.8470.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9499 are still seen as developing into a corrective pattern. That is, up trend from 0.6935 (2015 low) would resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.8276 support holds. However, firm break of 0.8276 support will suggest that rise from 0.6935 has completed and turn medium term outlook bearish.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8571; (P) 0.8588; (R1) 0.8614; More…

EUR/GBP is staying in consolidation from 0.8545 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further decline is expected with 0.8674 resistance intact. Break of 0.8545 will resume the fall from 0.9267, and target 61.8% projection of 0.9267 to 0.8647 from 0.8827 at 0.8444 next. On the upside, above 0.8674 minor resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound back to 0.8827 instead.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 0.9267 is a down leg inside long term range pattern. Deeper fall could be seen towards 0.8201/8338 support zone. But strong support should be seen there to bring reversal. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.8827 resistance will turn favor to the case that such decline is merely a correction in the up trend from 0.8201. That is, further rally would be seen at a later stage through 0.9267.

EURGBP Closes Below Trendline, Bearish Bias Still Weak

EURGBP slipped below the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) on Tuesday and closed marginally below the ascending trendline that has been strictly supporting the market since the sharp rebound in mid-February.

Another negative close below that line could strengthen warnings that the weakness in the price may persist, confirming the somewhat discouraging signal the falling RSI is currently providing.

To the downside, the 50-day SMA and the lower Bollinger band, both around 0.8930, may prove to be game changers if they immediately reject additional declines. Otherwise, the sell-off may continue until the 0.8865 key support level, a break of which would ruin the pair’s two-month old positive structure, shifting the spotlight towards the 0.8780 barrier.

Alternatively, if the price manages to return above the trendline, the bulls may push harder to overcome resistance around 0.9055 and run towards 0.9140. Beyond June’s peak of 0.9175 and higher than the dashed descending trendline (tentative), the rally may pick up steam towards 0.9290.

Looking at the six-month picture, the neutral outlook remains intact as long as the pair is trading below the 0.9497 top.

In brief, the short-term bias for EURGBP is viewed as neutral-to-bearish, with immediate support expected to occur around 0.8930.

EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook

EUR/GBP edged higher to 0.8710 last week, but retreated ahead of 0.8720 resistance. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. On the upside, decisive break of 0.8720 high will carry larger bullish implications. Next target is 100% projection of 0.8201 to 0.8720 from 0.8338 at 0.8857. However, break of 0.8565 will indicate rejection by 0.8270, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 0.8515) and below.

In the bigger picture, focus is back on 38.2% retracement of 0.9499 to 0.8201 at 0.8697. Sustained break there will argue that rise from 0.8201 is a medium term up trend, rather than a correction. Next target is 61.8% retracement at 0.9003. Rejection by 0.8697 again will maintain medium term bearishness, for extending the down trend from 0.9499 (2020 high) at a later stage.

In the long term picture, the lack of medium term downside momentum suggests that fall from 0.9499 (2020 high) is merely a correction to rise from 0.6935 (2015 high). In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9499 at 0.7917 to bring rebound. Sustained trading above 55 month EMA (now at 0.8601) will indicate that the correction has completed and bring retest of 0.9499.