EUR/CHF’s decline from 1.1149 resumed last week and hit as low as 1.0823. A temporary low was formed there with subsequent recovery. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Some consolidations could be seen. But overall outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0985 resistance holds. Break of 1.0823 will resume the decline to 1.0737 cluster support next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rebound from 1.0505 (2020 low) might be completed with three waves up to 1.1149 already. Sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 1.0885) will affirm this bearish case. Further break of 1.0737 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 1.0751) will bring retest of 1.0505 low.

In the long term picture, price actions from 1.0505 are currently seen as a correction to down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high). only. The failure to sustain above 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.0505 at 1.1078 retains long term bearishness. This is also affirmed by rejection by 55 month EMA. Another fall through 1.0505 is mildly in favor for now.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1384; (P) 1.1412; (R1) 1.1437; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral and consolidation from 1.1476 might extend. On the upside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.1162 at 1.1484 will confirm completion of corrective fall from 1.2004. Further rally should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.1682 and above. On the downside, sustained break of 55 day EMA (now at 1.1341) will pave the way back to retest 1.1162 low.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slight favoring the case that corrective fall from 1.2004 has completed after being supported by 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154. Decisive break of 1.1501 resistance should confirm and target 1.1713 resistance next. And, firm break of 1.1154 is needed to confirm down trend resumption. Otherwise, medium term outlook will be neutral at worst.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0705; (P) 1.0717; (R1) 1.0734; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for some consolidations above 1.0688 temporary low. As noted before, corrective pattern from 1.0915 could have started the third leg. Further decline is expected as long as 1.0749 resistance holds. Break of 1.0688 will target 1.0602 support next. However, on the upside, break of 1.0749 minor resistance will mix up the near term outlook again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.0503 are still seen as a consolidation pattern. With 1.1059 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.0503 at 1.1076) intact, the down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) would still extend through 1.0503 low at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1059/76 will argue that rise from 1.0503 is starting a new up trend and would target 61.8% retracement at 1.1431 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9613; (P) 0.9644; (R1) 0.9665; More…

A temporary top was formed at 0.9678 in EUR/CHF, ahead of 0.9691 resistance. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. Another rise is expected as long as 0.9595 support holds. Firm break of 0.9691 will argue that whole decline from 1.0095 has completed, just ahead of 0.9407 support (2022 low). Nevertheless, break of 0.9595 support will indicate short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.0095 (2023 high) might have completed at 0.9416, just ahead of 0.9407 support (2022 low). Sustained break of 0.9691 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.0095 to 0.9416 at 0.9675) will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 0.9836 and above. However, rejection by 0.9691 will maintain medium term bearishness for another test on 0.9407 at least.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9739; (P) 0.9772; (R1) 0.9793; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral for more consolidations. Further rally is expected with 0.9708 minor support intact. Above 0.9800 will resume the rebound from 0.9563 to retest 0.9847 high. However, break of 0.9708 will turn bias to the downside, to extend the corrective pattern form 0.9847 with another falling leg.

In the bigger picture, while 55 D EMA (now at 0.9644) was breached, EUR/CHF rebounded strongly since then. Rise from 0.9252 medium term bottom should still be in progress. Break of 0.9847 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 (2018 high) to 0.9252 (2023 low) at 1.0303, even as a correction to the down trend from 1.2004. However, sustained trading below 55 D EMA will argue that the rebound has completed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1527; (P) 1.1582; (R1) 1.1613; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral for consolidation above 1.1540 temporary low. In case of another recovery, upside should be limited by 1.1684 resistance to bring fall resumption. As noted before, the decline from 1.1832 is correcting medium term rise from 1.0629. Below 1.1540 will target 1.1355 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.1832 at 1.1372.)

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be in place at 1.1832 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. As long as 1.1198 resistance turned support holds, we’d still expect another rise through prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1925; (P) 1.1941; (R1) 1.1958; More…

EUR/CHF’s rebound from 1.1864 is still in progress and could extend higher. But still, as long as 1.2004 holds, the consolidation will extend with risk of deeper pull back. But in that case, we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.1445 to 1.2004 at 1.1790 to contain downside and bring rebound. Nonetheless, decisive break of 1.2004 will confirm up trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, long term up trend in EUR/CHF is still in progress. Prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000 was already met but there is no sign of reversal yet. As long as 1.1445 support holds, we’d expect the up trend to extend to 2013 high at 1.2649 next. However, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Break of 1.1445 will be an indication of medium term reversal and will turn outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9931; (P) 1.0004; (R1) 1.0041; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays on the downside at this point. Sustained break of 0.9970 low will resume larger down trend. Next target is 0.9650 long term projection level. On the upside, however, above 1.0214 minor resistance will delay the bearish case, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0505 support turned resistance (2020 low) holds, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is expected to continue. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9650. However, firm break of 1.0505 will suggest medium term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound towards 1.1149 structural resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1670; (P) 1.1708; (R1) 1.1733; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral at this point. We’re holding on to the view that it’s close to topping, if not formed. And even in case of another rise, strong resistance should be seen well below 1.2 handle to bring medium term reversal. On the downside, below 1.1670 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 1.1602 support first. Further break of 1.1602 will indicate reversal and turn outlook bearish for 1.1387 and below.

In the bigger picture, while a medium term top could be around the corner, there is no change in the larger outlook. That is, long term rise from SNB spike low back in 2015 is still in progress and would extend. As long as 1.1198 resistance turned support holds, we’ll hold on to this bullish view and expect another to prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000. Though, we’ll reassess the outlook if 1.1198 is firmly taken out.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1309; (P) 1.1337; (R1) 1.1358; More…

EUR/CHF is still holding in range of 1.1310/1444 despite yesterday’s dip. Intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. Further rise is in favor as long as 1.1310 support holds. On the upside, break of 1.1444 will resume the rebound from 1.1181 and target 1.1501 key resistance next. On the downside, firm break of 1.1310 will indicate completion of the rebound. In that case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.1181 low again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by 1.1154/98 support zone to complete it and bring rebound. Decisive break of 1.1501 (38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.1173 at 1.1490) will confirm completion of the correction. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.1687 and above next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0811; (P) 1.0842; (R1) 1.0879; More….

EUR/CHF’s breach of 1.0871 resistance suggests rally resumption. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.0915 resistance. Break there will also confirm resumption of whole rise form 1.0503. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.0503 to 1.0915 from 1.0735 at 1.0990. On the downside, break of 1.0818 minor support will delay the bullish case and turn bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.0503 are still seen as a consolidation pattern. With 1.1059 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.0503 at 1.1076) intact, the down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) would still extend through 1.0503 low at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1059/76 will argue that rise from 1.0503 is starting a new up trend and would target 61.8% retracement at 1.1431 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0714; (P) 1.0731; (R1) 1.0750; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral as consolidation from 1.0797 temporary top is extending. Further rise is expected as long as 1.0701 minor support holds. Also, corrective pull back from 1.0915 should have completed at 1.0602. On the upside, break of 1.0797 will turn bias to the upside for 1.0915 resistance first. Break there will resume the whole rise from 1.0503 and target 100% projection of 1.0503 to 1.0915 from 1.0602 at 1.1014 next. On the downside, though, break of 1.0701 minor support will dampen the bullish case and turn bias back to the downside instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1059 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.0503 at 1.1076) holds, price actions from 1.0503 are seen as a consolidation pattern. That is, down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) would still extend through 1.0503 low at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1059/76 will argue that rise from 1.0503 is starting a new up trend and would target 61.8% retracement at 1.1431 and above.

EUR/CHF’s recovery from 1.1119 extended to 1.1264 last week but failed to break through 1.1278 resistance as expected. Initial bias is neutral this week first and some more consolidations could be seen. On the downside, break of 1.1186 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for 1.1119 first. Break there will extend recent down trend to 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.1173 from 1.1476 at 1.0962 next limited.

In the bigger picture, current development firstly suggests that down trend from 1.2004 is still in progress. More importantly, it’s likely a long term down trend itself, rather than a correction. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.1476 resistance holds. EUR/CHF could target 1.0629 support and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1391; (P) 1.1407; (R1) 1.1428; More…

EUR/CHF is staying in consolidation from 1.1429 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral first. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 1.1347 resistance turned support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 1.1429 will extend the rise from 1.1181 to retest 1.1501 key resistance next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by 1.1154/98 support zone to complete it and bring rebound. Decisive break of 1.1501 (38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.1173 at 1.1490) will confirm completion of the correction, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, with double bottom pattern (1.1173, 1.1181) Further rise should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.1687 and above next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0625; (P) 1.0643; (R1) 1.0656; More…

At this point, we’re still looking for strong support from 1.0629 to contain downside to bring rebound. Break of 1.0737 resistance will confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias to the upside. However, sustained break of 1.0629 will extend larger down trend to 100% projection of 1.1476 to 1.0811 from 1.1059 at 1.0394 next.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2004 is (2018 high) is still in progress. While initial support might be seen from 1.0629 on first attempt, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.1059 resistance holds. Decisive break of 1.0629 will pave the way to parity next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9803; (P) 0.9821; (R1) 0.9838; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF is turned neutral with a temporary low formed at 0.9797. Some consolidations could be seen first, but deeper decline is in favor with 0.9889 minor resistance intact. Break of 0.9797 will target 0.9704 support and possibly below, as whole corrective pattern from 1.0095 extends. On the upside, though, break of 0.9889 minor resistance will turn intraday bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.9989) and 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.0072 suggests that medium term outlook is staying bearish. That is, down trend from 1.2004 is not completed yet and is in favor to resume through 0.9407 at a later stage. However, decisive break of 1.0095 resistance will raise the chance of bullish trend reversal. Rise from 0.9407 should then target 1.0505 cluster resistance (2020 low at 1.0505, 61.8% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.1484).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0730; (P) 1.0761; (R1) 1.0777; More…

Range trading continues in EUR/CHF and intraday bias remains neutral first. . On the upside, above 1.0838 will target 1.0915 resistance first. Break there will resume whole rally from 1.0503. On the downside, break of 1.0712 support will dampen our bullish view. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.0602, to extend the corrective pattern from 1.0915 instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1059 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.0503 at 1.1076) holds, price actions from 1.0503 are seen as a consolidation pattern. That is, down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) would still extend through 1.0503 low at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1059/76 will argue that rise from 1.0503 is starting a new up trend and would target 61.8% retracement at 1.1431 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9465; (P) 0.9543; (R1) 0.9588; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF is turned neutral again with current recovery, but outlook remains bearish with 0.9712 resistance intact. Break of 0.9407 will resume larger down trend. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.0512 to 0.9550 from 0.9864 at 0.9269.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9033. On the upside, break of 0.9864 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1398; (P) 1.1421; (R1) 1.1454; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral as recovery was limited well below 1.1476 resistance so far. On the upside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.1162 at 1.1484 will confirm completion of corrective fall from 1.2004. Further rally should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.1682 and above. On the downside, sustained break of 55 day EMA (now at 1.1333) will pave the way back to 1.1162 low.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slight favoring the case that corrective fall from 1.2004 has completed after being supported by 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154. Decisive break of 1.1501 resistance should confirm and target 1.1713 resistance next. And, firm break of 1.1154 is needed to confirm down trend resumption. Otherwise, medium term outlook will be neutral at worst.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1597; (P) 1.1624; (R1) 1.1638; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral as consolidation from 1.1709 is still in progress. Below 1.1559 minor support will bring deeper fall. But overall outlook will stays bullish as long as 1.1483 support holds. Above 1.1663 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.1709 high. Break will resume medium term rally to 1.2 key level. However, break of 1.1483 will be an early sign of reversal. In that case, deeper decline should be seen back to 1.1355 support.

In the bigger picture, long term rise from SNB spike low back in 2015 is still in progress. EUR/CHF should now be heading back to prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000. For now, this will be the favored case as long as 1.1355 support holds. However, break of 1.1355 will indicate medium term topping. In that case, EUR/CHF should head back to 55 week EMA (now at 1.1104) and possibly below.