EUR/CHF edged higher to 1.1832 last week but pulled back deeply. But still, downside was held above 1.1683 near term support. Thus, outlook stays bullish for further rally. Again, considering relatively weak upside momentum, in case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance below 1.2 handle to bring medium term reversal. Break of 1.1683 support will be a early sign of reversal and turn focus to 1.1602 support.

In the bigger picture, while a medium term top could be around the corner, there is no change in the larger outlook. That is, long term rise from SNB spike low back in 2015 is still in progress and would extend. As long as 1.1198 resistance turned support holds, we’ll hold on to this bullish view and expect further rise to prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000 and above. Though, we’ll reassess the outlook if 1.1198 is firmly taken out.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9828; (P) 0.9850; (R1) 0.9891; More….

EUR/CHF’s break of 0.9839 minor resistance suggests that correction from 0.9953 has completed with three waves down to 0.9720. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 0.9953 resistance first. Decisive break there will resume the rally from 0.9407 to 1.0072 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 0.9970 support turned resistance retains medium term bearishness. That is, while 0.9407 is a medium term bottom, price actions from there would develope into a corrective pattern rather than a reversal. That is, down trend resumption through 0.9407 is favored at a later stage. This will remain the favored case now, as long 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.0072 holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0869; (P) 1.0886; (R1) 1.0910; More…

A temporary low is formed at 1.0863 in EUR/CHF and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Upside of recovery should be limited by 1.0937 resistance to bring another decline. On the downside, break of 1.0863 will extend the fall from 1.1059 to retest 1.0811 low. On the upside, above 1.0937 minor resistance will bring stronger recovery, but we’d still expect strong resistance from 1.1062 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.1476 to 1.0811 at 1.1065) to limit upside.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2004 is (2018 high) is still in progress. More importantly, it’s likely a long term down trend itself, rather than a correction. Further fall should be seen to 1.0629 support and possibly below. On the upside, break of 1.1162 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0074; (P) 1.0115; (R1) 1.0141; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the downside as fall from 1.0400 is extending. As noted before, rebound from 0.9970 could have completed already. Deeper fall is now expected to retest 0.9970 low. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend. On the upside, however, break of 1.0204 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.0400 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9650. In any case, sustained break of 1.0505 support turned resistance (2020 low) is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0806; (P) 1.0822; (R1) 1.0846; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF is turned neutral with current recovery. On the downside, below 1.0787 will target 1.0737 support first. Break there will extend the sideway pattern from 1.0915 with another falling leg, towards 1.0661 support. On the upside, though, break of 1.8920 resistance will target 1.0915 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.0503 are still seen as a consolidation pattern. With 1.1059 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.0503 at 1.1076) intact, the down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) would still extend through 1.0503 low at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1059/76 will argue that rise from 1.0503 is starting a new up trend and would target 61.8% retracement at 1.1431 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0859; (P) 1.0952; (R1) 1.1041; More…

With 1.0926 minor resistance intact, further decline is expected in EUR/CHF to retest 1.0811 low. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend. On the upside, above 1.0926 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again. Overall outlook is unchanged that’s consolidation from 1.0811 might extend. In case of another recovery, upside should be limited by 1.1062 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.1476 to 1.0811 at 1.1065) to bring larger down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2004 is (2018 high) is still in progress. More importantly, it’s likely a long term down trend itself, rather than a correction. Further fall should be seen to 1.0629 support and possibly below. On the upside, break of 1.1162 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of rebound.

EUR/CHF’s rebound from 0.9416 extend higher last week. A short term bottom should be formed on bullish convergence condition in 4 H MACD, just ahead of 0.9407 medium term bottom. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.9571) will bring further rise to 0.9691 key structural resistance. On the downside, though, below 0.9457 support will bring retest of 0.9407/16 zone.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Decisive break of 0.9407 will confirm resumption, and target 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 1.0095 at 0.9018. On the upside, break of 0.9691 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish.

In the long term picture, outlook remains bearish as it’s staying well below 55 M EMA (now at 1.0362). Break of 1.0095 resistance is needed to be the first sign of bottoming, or the multi-decade down trend is expected to continue.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0635; (P) 1.0691; (R1) 1.0727; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the downside at this point. Rebound from 1.0503 has completed earlier than expected at 1.0915. Deeper fall would be seen to 55 day EMA (now at 1.0640). Sustained break there will bring retest of 1.0503 low. On the upside, though, above 1.0746 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for retesting 1.0915 instead.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 1.0811 key support turned resistance suggests that whole down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) has completed at 1.0503. Rise from 1.0503 could either be correcting the down trend from 1.2004. Or it could be starting a new up trend. Focus is now on 1.1059 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.0503 at 1.1076). Decisive break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.1431 and above. Though, rejection by 1.1059/76 will revive medium term bearishness.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9726; (P) 0.9757; (R1) 0.9809; More…

EUR/CHF’s break of 0.9760 resistance suggests short term bottoming at 0.9670, on bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, after hitting 61.8% retracement of 0.9407 to 1.0095 at 0.9670. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Sustained trading above 55 D EMA (now at 0.9779) will add to case that whole correction from 1.0095 has completed, and target 0.9878 resistance next. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 0.9670 support holds.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.0072 suggests that medium term outlook is staying bearish. The pair is also capped below 55 W EMA (now at 0.9929). Down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is not complete yet and is in favor to resume through 0.9407 at a later stage. However, decisive break of 1.0095 resistance will raise the chance of bullish trend reversal. Rise from 0.9407 should then target 1.0505 cluster resistance (2020 low at 1.0505, 61.8% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.1484).

EUR/CHF’s decline last week indicates short term topping at 0.9847, on bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. Initial bias is mildly on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 0.9252 to 0.9847 at 0.9620. But strong support is expected from there to contain downside to bring rebound, and set the range for sideway trading. Nevertheless, for now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.9847 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.9252 already, on bullish convergence condition in W MACD. Rise from there now target 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 (2018 high) to 0.9252 (2023 low) at 1.0303, even as a correction to the down trend from 1.2004. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.9633) holds.

In the long term picture, fall from 1.2004 (2018 high) is part of the multi-decade down trend. Firm break of 1.0095 resistance is needed to be the first sign of long term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0991; (P) 1.1024; (R1) 1.1066; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the upside at point. Decisive break of 1.1059/76 long term cluster resistance next will carry larger bullish implication. Next target will be 100% projection of 1.0503 to 1.0915 from 1.0737 at 1.1149. On the downside, break of 1.0980 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.0503 are still seen as a consolidation pattern. With 1.1059 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.0503 at 1.1076) intact, the down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) would still extend through 1.0503 low at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1059/76 will argue that rise from 1.0503 is starting a new up trend and would target 61.8% retracement at 1.1431 and above.

EUR/CHF stays in range of 1.0683/0823 last week and outlook is unchanged. With 1.0683 minor support intact, we’d slightly favoring the case of trend reversal on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. But such view is dampened by prior rejection from the falling 55 week EMA.

Initial bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral this week first. Further rise is expected as long as 1.0683 minor support holds. Above 1.0761 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for 1.0823 resistance first. Break will re-affirm the case of trend reversal and target 1.0897 resistance next. However, firm break of 1.0683 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 1.0620 key support level again.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.1198 is seen as a corrective move. Decisive break of 1.0897 resistance should confirm that it’s completed. And in that case, larger up trend is resuming for another high above 1.1198. Meanwhile, sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653 will target 50% retracement at 1.0485.

EUR/CHF’s break of 0.9832 support argues that rebound form 0.9407 has completed at 1.0095 already, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Initial bias is now on the downside this week for deeper fall to 61.8% retracement of 0.9407 to 1.0095 at 0.9670. Sustained break there will bring deeper fall to retest 0.9407 low. On the upside, above 0.9860 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 day EMA (now at 0.9910) holds.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 55 week EMA (now at 1.0011) and 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.0072 suggests that medium term outlook is staying bearish. That is, down trend from 1.2004 is not completed yet and is in favor to resume through 0.9407 at a later stage. For now, this will be the favored case as long as 1.0095 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, it’s still way too early too call for bullish trend reversal with upside capped well below 55 month EMA and 1.0505 support turned resistance (2020 low). The multi-decade down trend could still continue.

EUR/CHF’s rebound from 1.1445 resumed last week and surged to as high as 1.1740. The development suggests that pull back from 1.1832 is already completed at 1.1445. As a temporary top is formed, initial bias is neutral this week first. With 1.1630 minor support intact, further rise still expected retest 1.1832 high. At this point, we’ll stay cautious strong resistance from there to bring another fall. Corrective pattern from 1.1832 might still have an attempt on 1.1355 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.1832 at 1.1372) before completion. On the downside, below 1.1630 minor support will target 1.1445 low again.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be in place at 1.1832 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. As long as 1.1198 resistance turned support holds, we’d still expect another rise through prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1348; (P) 1.1378; (R1) 1.1394; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF is turned neutral as rebound from 1.1310 failed below 1.1444 resistance. Further rise is still expected as long as 1.1310 holds. ON the upside, break of 1.1444 will whole rally from 1.1181 for 1.1501 key resistance next. However, break of 1.1310 will turn bias to the downside for 1.1181 low again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by 1.1154/98 support zone to complete it and bring rebound. Decisive break of 1.1501 (38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.1173 at 1.1490) will confirm completion of the correction, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.1687 and above next.

EUR/CHF finally broke out of range last week and dipped to as low as 1.0688. But as a temporary low was formed with subsequent recovery, initial bias is neutral this week first. Current development suggests that consolidation from pattern from 1.0915 has started the third leg. Break of 1.0688 will target 1.0602 support and possibly below. However, on the upside, break of 1.0749 minor resistance will mix up the near term outlook again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.0503 are still seen as a consolidation pattern. With 1.1059 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.0503 at 1.1076) intact, the down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) would still extend through 1.0503 low at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1059/76 will argue that rise from 1.0503 is starting a new up trend and would target 61.8% retracement at 1.1431 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1488; (P) 1.1506; (R1) 1.1521; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral as consolidation from 1.1445 is extending. Also, outlook remains bearish with 1.1639 resistance intact and deeper decline is expected. Break of 1.1445 will resume the corrective fall from 1.1832 and target 1.1355 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.1832 at 1.1372.) At this point, we’d expect strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be in place at 1.1832 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. As long as 1.1198 resistance turned support holds, we’d still expect another rise through prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0830; (P) 1.0847; (R1) 1.0862; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral first. Consolidation from 1.0811 might extend with another recovery. But upside should be limited by 1.1062 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.1476 to 1.0811 at 1.1065). On the downside, sustained break of 1.0811 will resume larger down trend and target 1.0629 key support next.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2004 is (2018 high) is still in progress. More importantly, it’s likely a long term down trend itself, rather than a correction. Further fall should be seen to 1.0629 support and possibly below. On the upside, break of 1.1162 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9773; (P) 0.9806; (R1) 0.9824; More…

Break of 0.9797 indicates that fall form 0.9995 is resuming. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Current decline is seen as part of the whole corrective pattern from 1.0095. Deeper fall would be seen to 0.9704 support and below. For now, further decline will remain in favor as long as 0.9846 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.9989) and 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.0072 suggests that medium term outlook is staying bearish. That is, down trend from 1.2004 is not completed yet and is in favor to resume through 0.9407 at a later stage. However, decisive break of 1.0095 resistance will raise the chance of bullish trend reversal. Rise from 0.9407 should then target 1.0505 cluster resistance (2020 low at 1.0505, 61.8% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.1484).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1334; (P) 1.1347; (R1) 1.1354; More…

EUR/CHF is still gyrating in consolidation from 1.1444 and intraday bias remains neutral. More sideway trading could be seen. But with 1.1310 support intact, further rise is still expected. On the upside, firm break of 1.1444 resistance will resume the rebound from 1.1181 and target 1.1501 key resistance next. On the downside, firm break of 1.1310 will indicate completion of the rebound. In that case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.1181 low again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by 1.1154/98 support zone to complete it and bring rebound. Decisive break of 1.1501 (38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.1173 at 1.1490) will confirm completion of the correction. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.1687 and above next.