Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6054; (P) 1.6085; (R1) 1.6110; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the downside for now, despite some loss of momentum as seen in 4H MACD. Current down trend should target 100% projection of 1.6679 to 1.6211 from 1.6418 at 1.5950. On the upside, above 1.6125 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations again, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). In case of deeper fall, strong support is expected around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound. Break of 1.7062 is in favor as a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5351; (P) 1.5404; (R1) 1.5433; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral as range trading continues. Further decline is in favor as it’s staying inside near term falling channel. On the downside, break of 1.5250 low will resume larger down trend from 1.9799, for 1.4733 fibonacci level. On the upside, though, break of 1.5689 and sustained trading above channel resistance will indicate short term bottoming. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.5945 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6033 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4954; (P) 1.5000; (R1) 1.5066; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.5074 continues. Downside of retreat should be contained above 1.4669 support and bring rise resumption. We’re holding on to the bullish view that the medium term trend has reversed. Break of 1.5094 resistance will extend the rally from 1.3624 to next medium term fibonacci level at 1.5455. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 1.4669 will confirm short term topping and bring deeper pull back, possibly to 55 day EMA (now at 1.4428).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction should be completed at 1.3624 after defending 1.3671 key support. Rise from 1.3642 is now expected to target 61.8% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.5455 and above. In any case, outlook will now stay cautiously bullish as long as 1.4309 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5600; (P) 1.5659; (R1) 1.5700; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD Remains on the downside for retesting 1.5591 support. Firm break there will resume larger down trend and target 61.8% projection of 1.6409 to 1.5591 from 1.5945 at 1.5439. On the upside, above 1.5762 minor resistance will delay the bearish case, and extend the consolidation from 1.5591 with another rise.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6827 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5865; (P) 1.5911; (R1) 1.5966; More…

EUR/AUD is staying in consolidation in range of 1.5826/6200 and intraday bias remains neutral. Outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.5826 resistance turned support holds. Break of 1.6200 will will resume the larger rise from 1.4281 to 61.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.5976 from 1.5254 at 1.6302 next. However, firm break of 1.5826 will confirm short term topping, and bring deeper fall to 55 day EMA (now at 1.5695).

In the bigger picture, the strong support from 55 week EMA (now at 1.5404) is raising the chance of bullish trend reversal. Focus is now on 1.6434 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.6389). Sustained break there should confirm that whole down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) has completed. Further rally should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.7691. However, rejection by this cluster resistance will make medium term outlook neutral at best.

EUR/AUD’s steep decline last week suggests that rebound from 1.4318 has completed as a corrective move to 1.5396, after rejection by 1.5354 resistance turned support. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 1.4759 support first. Sustained break there will affirm this bearish case and bring retest of 1.4318 low. On the upside, above 1.5043 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 1.5354 support turned resistance, as well as 55 week EMA (now at 1.5398), maintain medium term bearishness. That is, larger down trend from 1.9799 is not completed yet. Break of 1.4318 low will target 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.5396 resistance holds.

In the longer term picture, fall from 1.9799 (2020 high) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Deeper fall should be seen to 1.3624 support. Decisive break there would pave the way back to 1.1602 (2012 low). This will remain the favored case as long as 55 month EMA (now at 1.5694) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6240; (P) 1.6373; (R1) 1.6458; More…

Breach of 1.6298 suggests that fall from 1.6827 is resuming. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 1.6033 low. On the upside, though, break of 1.6505 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.6827 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions form 1.9799 might be developing into a sideway pattern only. That is, medium term outlook is just neutral, and up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) could resume at a later stage. On the downside, though, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 1.6463) would revive medium term bearishness for 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733.

EUR/AUD turned into sideway trading above 1.6452 last week, but upside is capped well below 1.6793 resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and outlook stays bearish. On the downside, break of 1.6452 will resume the fall from 1.7062, as a larger scale correction, to 1.6000 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.6793 will dampen this view and bring retest of 1.7062 instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 is probably correcting whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000. Strong support should be seen there to bring rebound, at least on first attempt.

In the longer term picture, it’s still early to decide if rise from 1.4281 is resuming whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). But in either case, further rally is in favor as long as 1.5846 support holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.7691.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5938; (P) 1.5973; (R1) 1.6011; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.5774 extends. Near term outlook stays bearish with 1.6154 resistance intact and further decline is expected. On the downside, break of 1.5774 will resume the fall from 1.6765 and target 1.5346 key support next. On the upside, break of 1.6154 will argue that the pull back has completed. Intraday bias will then be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.6765.

In the bigger picture, the failure to sustain above 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high) argues that up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is not ready to resume yet. But still, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will remain bullish. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6067; (P) 1.6112; (R1) 1.6181; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for consolidation below 1.6171 temporary top. Some consolidations would be seen. But retreat should be contained by 1.5886 resistance turned support to bring another rally. On the upside, firm break of 100% projection of 1.5271 to 1.5886 from 1.5601 at 1.6216 will extend the larger up trend to 161.8% projection at 1.6596, which is close to another key resistance level at 1.6587.

In the bigger picture, EUR/AUD drew strong support from 55 week EMA and rebounded. And the development argues that medium term rally from 1.3624 (2017 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 1.6189 will target a test on 1.6587 (2015 high). On the downside, break of 1.5601 support will now be the first sign of medium term reversal, and will bring a test on 1.5271 key support for confirmation.

EUR/AUD edged higher to 1.5725 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, though, below 1.5578 will resume the fall from 1.5888 to 61.8% retracement of 1.5271 to 1.5888 at 1.5507. Firm break there will pave the way to retest 1.5271 low. On the upside, above 1.5725 will extend the rebound form 1.5578 to retest 1.5888 high.

In the bigger picture, the rebound from 1.5271 was somewhat weaker than expected. EUR/AUD also failed to sustain above 55 day EMA and hints on some underlying bearishness. Though, for now, as long as 1.5271 support holds, medium term rise from 1.3624 (2017 low) is still mildly in favor to extend through 1.6189 high, to 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). Nevertheless, firm break of 1.5271 will complete a head and shoulder top pattern (ls: 1.5770, h: 1.6189, rs: 1.5888). That would indicate medium term reversal and turn outlook bearish.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3624 key support should indicate long term reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

EUR/AUD rose to as high as 1.5919 last week. The solid break of 1.5816 resistance confirmed medium term rise resumption. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 61.8% projection of 1.5258 to 1.5816 from 1.5626 at 1.5971. Break will target 1.6526. On the downside, below 1.5786 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.5626 support holds.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 1.3624 is still in progress for 1.6587 key resistance. At this point, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside. But decisive break will confirm resumption of long term rise from 1.1602. On the downside, break of 1.5153 support is needed to indicate completion of the medium term rise. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of pull back.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3671 should indicate long term reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5647; (P) 1.5710; (R1) 1.5744; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral first. With 1.5606 support intact, near term outlook stays bullish. Sustained trading above 1.5770 will confirm resumption of medium term rise from 1.3264. In that case, EUR/AUD should target 1.6587 key long term resistance. However, below 1.5606 minor support minor support will dampen this bullish case and turn bias to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.5463).

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 1.3624 is not completed yet. Sustained break of 1.5770 will extend the rise to retest 1.6587 (2015 high). However, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, break of 1.4949 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.5770 at 1.4950) will indicate medium term reversal. And there is prospect of retesting 1.3624 low in that bearish case.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4646; (P) 1.4724; (R1) 1.4772; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays on the downside at this point. Corrective rise from 1.4318 should have completed at 1.5396, after rejection by 1.5354 support turned resistance. Deeper fall should be seen to retest 1.4318 low first. On the upside, above 1.4910 minor resistance will dampen this bearish view, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 1.5354 support turned resistance, as well as 55 week EMA (now at 1.5378), maintain medium term bearishness. That is, larger down trend from 1.9799 is not completed yet. Break of 1.4318 low will target 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.5396 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6301; (P) 1.6361; (R1) 1.6401; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains mildly on the upside at this point. Consolidation pattern from 1.6033 should have started another rising leg. Further rise could be seen back to 1.6827 resistance. On the downside, break of 1.6122 will bring retest of 1.6033 low.

In the bigger picture, price action from 1.9799 are seen as developing into a corrective pattern. The question is whether it’s a sideway pattern or a deep correction. On the downside, sustained break of 1.6033 will suggest it’s the latter case and target 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 (2012 low) to 1.9799 at 1.4733. On the upside, break of 1.6827 resistance will favor the former case and bring stronger rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6242; (P) 1.6279; (R1) 1.6333; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral as consolidations form 1.6368 is extending. Further rise is expected as long as 1.6074 support holds. Corrective fall from 1.6786 should have completed at 1.5905. Break of 1.6368 will target 1.6680/6786 resistance zone next. On the downside, however, break of 1.6074 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.5894 key support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5894 support holds, outlook remains bullish. Firm break of 1.6786 will resume up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Next upside target is 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488. However, sustained break of 1.5894 will have 55 week EMA (now at 1.6031) firmly taken out too. That should indicate medium term topping and target 1.5346 key support next.

EUR/AUD’s choppy rise from 1.5250 resumed to 1.5976 last week after drawing support from 55 day EMA. But a temporary top was formed there and initial bias is turned neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 1.5976 will target 1.6033 key support turned resistance next. Sustained break there will argue that longer term trend has reversed, and target 1.6827 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, outlook stays bearish with 1.6033 support turned resistance intact for now. Fall from 1.9799, as a correction to to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is still in favor to resume through 1.5250 later. However, However, firm break of 1.6033 will argue that such decline has completed. Stronger rebound would then be seen 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) should have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799 (2020 high). Fall from there is seen as a medium term to long term down leg as a long term down trend, or a sideway pattern. We’ll assess the odds again at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6085; (P) 1.6135; (R1) 1.6174; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is turned neutral with current retreat, and some consolidations could be seen. But near term outlook stays bullish as long as 1.5925 support holds. On the upside, break of 1.6182 will resume the rise from 1.5250 to 1.6827 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom was formed at 1.5250, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Rise from 1.5250 is currently seen as a correction to the down trend from 1.9799 first. Stronger rise would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988 next. We’d tentatively expect strong resistance from there to limit upside, at least on first attempt.

EUR/AUD gyrated lower last week despite weak downside momentum. On the downside, sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.6432) will argue that rise from 1.5996 has completed. Deeper fall would then be seen back to this support. Nevertheless, strong rebound from current levels, followed by break of 1.6580 resistance, will argue that pullback from 1.7180 has completed already. Intraday bias will then be back on the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 1.7062 medium term top should have completed at 1.5996. Larger up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is resuming. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.7062 from 1.5996 at 1.7715. However, sustained break of 55 D EMA will dampen this bullish view and extend medium term range trading.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.9799 (2020 high) are seen as a long term decline at the same scale as the rise from 1.1602 (2012 low). Rebound from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg. As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.6006) holds, this second leg could still extend higher. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will open up the bearish case for extending the decline through 1.4281 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5987; (P) 1.6034; (R1) 1.6089; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 1.6116 will argue that pull back from 1.6434 has completed after defending 1.5898 structural support. Larger rise from 15250 is still in progress. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.6434 first. On the downside, however, firm break of 1.5898 will argue that corrective rise from 1.5250 has already completed. Near term outlook will be turned bearish for 1.5614 support next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.5250 medium term bottom is currently seen as a correction to the down trend from 1.9799 first. Stronger rise could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988 next. We’d tentatively expect strong resistance from there to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Meanwhile, break of 1.5898 support will indicate that the rebound has completed. Larger down trend from 1.9799 might be ready to resume through 1.5250 low.