Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5644; (P) 1.5681; (R1) 1.5713; More….

EUR/AUD’s recovery stalled at 1.5725 and retreated. Intraday bias is turned neutral again with 4 hour MACD crossed below signal line. On the upside, above 1.5725 will extend the rebound form 1.5578 to retest 1.5888 high. On the downside, though, below 1.5578 will resume the fall from 1.5888 to 61.8% retracement of 1.5271 to 1.5888 at 1.5507.

In the bigger picture, the rebound from 1.5271 was somewhat weaker than expected. EUR/AUD also failed to sustain above 55 day EMA and hints on some underlying bearishness. Though, for now, as long as 1.5271 support holds, medium term rise from 1.3624 (2017 low) is still mildly in favor to extend through 1.6189 high, to 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). Nevertheless, firm break of 1.5271 will complete a head and shoulder top pattern (ls: 1.5770, h: 1.6189, rs: 1.5888). That would indicate medium term reversal and turn outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6004; (P) 1.6044; (R1) 1.6103; More….

EUR/AUD surges to as high as 1.6123 so far and intraday bias remains on the upside. Current rally should target 100% projection of 1.5271 to 1.5886 from 1.5601 at 1.6216, which is close to 1.6189 high. On the downside, below 1.5983 resistance turn support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, EUR/AUD drew strong support from 55 week EMA and rebounded. And the development argues that medium term rally from 1.3624 (2017 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 1.6189 will target a test on 1.6587 (2015 high). On the downside, break of 1.5601 support will now be the first sign of medium term reversal, and will bring a test on 1.5271 key support for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6908; (P) 1.6987; (R1) 1.7058; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the upside at this point. Current rally is part of the up trend from 1.4281. Next target is 1.7377 projection level next. On the downside, break 1.6737 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.4281 (2022 low) is in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.5254 to 1.6785 from 1.5846 at 1.7377. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.5846 support holds, even in case of another pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.8284; (P) 1.8518; (R1) 1.8664; More…

EUR/AUD is staying in consolidation from 1.9799 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Deeper pull back could be seen but downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 1.6085 to 1.9799 at 1.7504 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.9799 will resume larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is in progress and further rally would be seen to 2.1127 (2008 high) and possibly to 161.8% projection of 1.1602 to 1.6597 from 1.3524 at 2.1706. On the downside, for now, touching of 1.6597 resistance turned support (2015 high), is needed to indicate medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5556; (P) 1.5591; (R1) 1.5644; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.5250 is still extending. On the upside, break of 1.5672 will bring stronger rebound. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.6827 to 1.5250 at 1.5852. On the downside, below 1.5423 should bring retest of 1.5250 low. Overall, down trend from 1.9799 is expected to resume after consolidation from 1.5250 completes.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6033 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5319; (P) 1.5399; (R1) 1.5545; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is turned neutral for some consolidations first. While stronger rebound cannot be ruled out, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.5945 resistance holds. Break of 1.5250 will resume the larger down trend from 1.9799.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6033 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

EUR/AUD edged higher to 1.5685 last week but turned into consolidation then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Downside of retreat should be contained by 1.5165 support to bring another rally. Break of 1.5685 will resume the rise from 1.4281 and target 161.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.4965 from 1.4716 at 1.5823 next.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.4281, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Further rise would be seen back to 1.6434 key resistance next. Break of 1.4965 resistance turned support is needed to indicate reversal. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor.

In the longer term picture, breach of 55 month EMA (now at 1.5613) raises the chance of medium term bullish reversal. Focus is back on 1.6434 cluster resistance, 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 (2020 high) to 1.4281 at 1.6389). Sustained break there will confirm and target 61.8% retracement at 1.7691.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5333; (P) 1.5394; (R1) 1.5513; More…

EUR/AUD is still extending the consolidation pattern from 1.5704 and intraday bias remains neutral. Downside should be contained by 55 day EMA (now at 1.5320) to bring rebound. On the upside, decisive break of 1.5704 resistance will resume whole rally from 1.4281. However, sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper decline to 1.4965 resistance turned support.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.4281, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Further rise would be seen back to 1.6434 key resistance next. Break of 1.4965 resistance turned support is needed to indicate reversal. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6187; (P) 1.6213; (R1) 1.6232; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral and consolidation from 1.6262 might extend. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.5683 to 1.6262 at 1.6041 to bring rise resumption. Current development argues that correction from 1.6765 has completed with three waves down to 1.5683. On the upside, break of 1.6262 will target retest of 1.6765 high.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will still remain bullish. Up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.

EUR/AUD’s fall from 1.5396 resumed last week and hit as low as 1.4391. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 1.4318 support. Firm break there will resume larger down trend to medium term projection level at 1.3623. On the upside, break of 1.4804 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.9799 is still in progress. Break of 1.4318 low will target 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.5396 resistance holds.

In the longer term picture, fall from 1.9799 (2020 high) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Deeper fall should be seen to 1.3624 support. Decisive break there would pave the way back to 1.1602 (2012 low). This will remain the favored case as long as 55 month EMA (now at 1.5656) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5811; (P) 1.5893; (R1) 1.5941; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral at this point, for consolidation below 1.5976 temporary top. On the upside, break of 1.5976 will resume the choppy rise from 1.5250 to 1.6033 key support turned resistance next. Sustained break there will argue that longer term trend has reversed, and target 1.6827 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, outlook stays bearish with 1.6033 support turned resistance intact for now. Fall from 1.9799, as a correction to to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is still in favor to resume through 1.5250 later. However, However, firm break of 1.6033 will argue that such decline has completed. Stronger rebound would then be seen 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5965; (P) 1.6019; (R1) 1.6049; More…

EUR/AUD’s break of 1.6025 support indicates resumption of fall from 1.6448. Intraday bias is now back on the downside for further decline. Fall from 1.6448 is seen as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.6765 high. Next target will be 1.5683 support and below. On the upside, above 1.6073 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But upside of recovery should be limited below 1.6231 support to bring another fall.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will still remain bullish. Up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal and turn outlook bearish.

EUR/AUD’s fall from 1.6742 extended to 1.6368 last week before turning sideway. Initial bias stays neutral this week first, but risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.6516 resistance holds. On the downside, below 1.6368 will resume the fall from 1.6742 towards 1.6127 low. Nevertheless, break of 1.6516 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). The correction is probably still in progress with fall from 1.6742 as the third leg. Strong support is expected around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.9799 (2020 high) are seen as a long term decline at the same scale as the rise from 1.1602 (2012 low). Rebound from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg. As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.5950) holds, this second leg could still extend higher. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will open up the bearish case for extending the decline through 1.4281 low.

EUR/AUD’s stayed in consolidation from 1.6785 last week with some volatility seen. But overall near term outlook is unchanged. Downside of the consolidation should be contained by 1.6247 resistance turned support to bring rise resumption. On the upside, firm break of 1.6786 will resume larger up trend to 1.7488 projection level. However, sustained break of 1.6247 will bring deeper fall towards 1.5894 support instead.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains bullish and up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is still in progress. Prior support from 55 week EMA indicates medium term bullishness. Next upside target is 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488. In any case, break of 1.5894 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) is still in progress for 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.5894 remains intact. However, firm break of 1.5894 will be an early sign of major topping and turn focus to 1.5346 key support for confirmation.

EUR/AUD dropped notably last week but failed to break through 1.5354 low and turned sideway. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, but further fall is in favor as long as 1.5743 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.5354 will resume whole fall from 1.6434 to retest 1.5250 low. Nevertheless, break of 1.5743 will turn near term outlook bullish for 1.5907 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) is in progress. Firm break of 1.5250 low will confirm resumption and target 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 (2012 low) to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Sustained break there could bring more downside acceleration to 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623. In any case, break of 1.6434 resistance is needed to signal medium term bottoming, or outlook will stay bearish.

In the longer term picture, fall from 1.9799 (2020 high) is seen as a long term down trend. Sustained break of 61.8 retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733 will extend the decline to 1.3624 long term support and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4853; (P) 1.4890; (R1) 1.4925; More…

A temporary top is in place at 1.4997 and intraday bias is turned neutral. Break of 1.4813 will argue that rebound from 1.4625 has completed and will turn bias back to the downside for this support. On the upside, above 1.4997 will target a test on 1.5226 high next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction should be completed at 1.3624 after defending 1.3671 key support. Rise from 1.3642 would extend to 61.8% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.5455. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.6587. However, sustained break of 1.4669 support will dampen this bullish view. We’ll assess the outlook later after looking at the structure and depth of the pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5153; (P) 1.5241; (R1) 1.5304; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD neutral and outlook is unchanged. As long as 1.5354 support turned resistance holds, further decline is still expected. On the downside, break of 1.4920 minor support should resume larger down trend to 161.8% projection of 1.6343 to 1.5354 from 1.6223 at 1.4476. However, sustained break of 1.5354 will bring stronger rise back towards 1.6223 resistance.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.9799 is seen as a long term impulsive move. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). Some support could be seen there to bring interim rebound. But overall, break of 1.5354 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5806; (P) 1.5850; (R1) 1.5923; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral first. On the upside, sustained break of the channel resistance will argue that fall from 1.6827 has completed at 1.5591. Stronger rise should be seen to 1.6144 support turned resistance. On the downside, break of 1.5760 minor support will retain near term bearishness, and bring retest of 1.5591 low.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.9799 is developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6827 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5468; (P) 1.5498; (R1) 1.5514; More….

EUR/AUD lost upside momentum after hitting 1.5556 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Corrective rise from 1.5271 could still extend. But upside should be limited below 1.5773 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 1.5271 will extend the fall from 1.6189 to 1.5153 next.

In the bigger picture, rally from 1.3624 (2017 low) should have completed at 1.6189 already, ahead of 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). 1.6189 is seen as a medium term top. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6189 at 1.5209 first. Decisive break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.4604. In that case, we’ll look for bottoming again below 1.4604. On the upside, firm break of 1.5773 support turned resistance is needed to indicate completion of the fall from 1.6189. Otherwise, further decline is expected in medium term, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5840; (P) 1.5896; (R1) 1.5962; More…

EUR/AUD is staying below 1.5959 temporary top despite strong recovery. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. At this point, we’re still slightly favoring the bullish case that correction from 1.6765 has completed with three waves down to 1.5683. On the upside, above 1.5959 affirm this week and target 1.6122 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, in case of another fall, downside should be contained above 1.5683 to bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will still remain bullish. Uptrend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.