Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5206; (P) 1.5258; (R1) 1.5286; More….

EUR/AUD’s decline from 1.5770 extends to as low as 1.5153 so far. The break of 1.5226 resistance turned support is seen as a sign of larger reversal. That is, rise from 1.3624 could be completed at 1.5770 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Intraday bias is now on the downside for 1.4949 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.5770 at 1.4950). On the upside, above 1.5311 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 1.6587 medium term top (2015 high) is still in progress. And fall from 1.5770 could be the another leg. Sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 1.4950) will likely bring retest of 1.3624 support. But overall, there is still prospect of another medium term rally as long as 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.6587 at 1.3506 holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5853; (P) 1.5975; (R1) 1.6100; More…

EUR/AUD is staying in range below 1.6200 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Downside of retreat should be contained by 1.5826 support to bring another rally. Break of 1.6200 will resume the larger rise from 1.4281 to 61.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.5976 from 1.5254 at 1.6302 next. However, firm break of 1.5826 will confirm short term topping, and bring deeper fall to 55 day EMA (now at 1.5677).

In the bigger picture, the strong support from 55 week EMA (now at 1.5404) is raising the chance of bullish trend reversal. Focus is now on 1.6434 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.6389). Sustained break there should confirm that whole down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) has completed. Further rally should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.7691. However, rejection by this cluster resistance will make medium term outlook neutral at best.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6315; (P) 1.6394; (R1) 1.6506; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays on the upside at this point. Pull back from 1.6785 should have completed at at 1.6134, after drawing support from 55 D EMA (now at 1.6222). Further rally should be seen to retest 1.6785 high next. On the downside, however, break of 1.6309 minor support will dampen this view and turn bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) should have completed at 1.4281 (2022 low). Further rise should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.7691 next. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.5976 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4486; (P) 1.4550; (R1) 1.4612; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral and some more consolidation could be seen above 1.4318 temporary low. But outlook remains bearish as long as 1.4940 resistance holds. Break of 1.4318 will resume larger down trend to 1.3624 long term support next. On the upside, however, firm break of 1.4940 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 1.5327 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.9799 is seen as a long term impulsive move. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). Some support could be seen there to bring interim rebound. But overall, break of 1.5354 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

Sideway trading continued in EUR/AUD last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, decisive break of 1.6671 will revive the case that whole correction from 1.7062 has completed with three waves down to 1.6127. Further rally should then be seen to 1.6844 resistance for confirmation. Nevertheless, below 1.6455 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 1.6348 and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Break of 1.6844 resistance will argue that this up trend is ready to resume through 1.7062 high. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.9799 (2020 high) are seen as a long term decline at the same scale as the rise from 1.1602 (2012 low). Rebound from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg. As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.5902) holds, this second leg could still extend higher. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will open up the bearish case for extending the decline through 1.4281 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5633; (P) 1.5662; (R1) 1.5718; More…

EUR/AUD is seen as staying in consolidation pattern from 1.5250, even though it’s in another rising leg. Upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.6827 to 1.5250 at 1.5852. Overall, down trend from 1.9799 is expected to resume after consolidation from 1.5250 completes.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6033 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5373; (P) 1.5409; (R1) 1.5461; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is turned neutral with 4 hour MACD crossed above signal line. Consolidation from 1.5250 might extend further. But in case of another rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.6827 to 1.5250 at 1.5852. On the downside, firm break of 1.5250 support will resume the larger down trend from 1.9799. Next target is 1.4733 long term fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6033 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6281; (P) 1.6315; (R1) 1.6339; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. While recovery from 1.6256 might extend, further decline is in favor as long as 1.6580 resistance holds. Break of 1.6256 will resume the fall from 1.7180, and target 1.5996 key support level next. However, decisive break of 1.6580 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, outlook is mixed up by the deeper than expected fall from 1.7180. Yet as long as 1.5996 support holds, up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage. Firm break of 1.7180 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.7062 from 1.5996 at 1.7715.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4913; (P) 1.4966; (R1) 1.5000; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.5074 continues. Another fall cannot be ruled out but downside should be contained above 1.4669 support and bring rise resumption. We’re holding on to the bullish view that the medium term trend has reversed. Break of 1.5094 resistance will extend the rally from 1.3624 to next medium term fibonacci level at 1.5455. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 1.4669 will confirm short term topping and bring deeper pull back, possibly to 55 day EMA (now at 1.4469).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction should be completed at 1.3624 after defending 1.3671 key support. Rise from 1.3642 is now expected to target 61.8% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.5455 and above. In any case, outlook will now stay cautiously bullish as long as 1.4309 resistance turned support holds.

EUR/AUD surged to as high as 1.6154 last week but lost momentum since then. With 4 hour MACD crossed below signal line, a temporary top is in place. Intraday bias is turned neutral for some consolidations first. But downside of retreat should be contained by 1.5887 resistance turned support to bring rise resumption. On the upside, above 1.6154 will extend the rebound from 1.5346 to retest 1.6357 high next. At this point, we’d be cautious on topping around there to bring pull back.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that 1.6357 is a medium term top. But the strong rebound ahead of 1.5271 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6357 at 1.5313) suggests price actions from 1.6357 are developing into sideway consolidation, rather than a deep correction. The range of 1.5271/6357 is likely set for the consolidation. And we don’t expect a break of the range any time soon. But decisive break of 1.6357 will resume the larger up trend from 1.3624 (2017 low) to 1.6587 (2015 high).

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3624 key support should indicate long term reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5483; (P) 1.5515; (R1) 1.5564; More…

Range trading continues in EUR/AUD and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, break of 1.5650 resistance will revive that case that correction from 1.5976 has completed at 1.5254. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for 1.5749 resistance first. On the downside, firm break of 1.5254/71 will carry larger bearish implication and resume the fall from 1.5976.

In the bigger picture, it’s still early to confirm if rise from 1.4281 represents bullish trend reversal. But as long as 1.5271 support holds, such rally is in favor to continue. Break of 1.5976 will target 1.6434 key resistance next. On the other hand, firm break of 1.5271 will retain medium term bearishness instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.8284; (P) 1.8518; (R1) 1.8664; More…

EUR/AUD is staying in consolidation from 1.9799 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Deeper pull back could be seen but downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 1.6085 to 1.9799 at 1.7504 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.9799 will resume larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is in progress and further rally would be seen to 2.1127 (2008 high) and possibly to 161.8% projection of 1.1602 to 1.6597 from 1.3524 at 2.1706. On the downside, for now, touching of 1.6597 resistance turned support (2015 high), is needed to indicate medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6417; (P) 1.6506; (R1) 1.6555; More…

Immediate focus is now on 1.6474 support in EUR/AUD. Decisive break there will argue that rise from 1.5996 has completed, and dampen the larger bullish view. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for deeper fall towards 1.5996 in this case. Nevertheless, strong rebound from current level, followed by break of 1.6745 resistance, will retain near term bullishness and bring retest of 1.7180 high.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 1.7062 medium term top should have completed at 1.5996. Larger up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is resuming. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.7062 from 1.5996 at 1.7715. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.6474 support holds. However, decisive break of 1.6474 will argue that EUR/AUD Is still engaging in medium term range trading.

EUR/AUD’s strong break of 1.6182 resistance last week confirmed resumption of whole rise from 1.5250. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 1.6827 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.6284 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.5898 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.5250 medium term bottom is currently seen as a correction to the down trend from 1.9799 first. Stronger rise would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988 next. We’d tentatively expect strong resistance from there to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Meanwhile, break of 1.5898 support will indicate that the rebound has completed and bring retest of 1.5250 low.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) should have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799 (2020 high). Fall from there is seen as a medium term to long term down leg as a long term down trend, or a sideway pattern. We’ll assess the odds again at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4889; (P) 1.4941; (R1) 1.5006; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the downside, break of 1.4882 support will reaffirm that case that corrective rebound from 1.4318 has completed at 1.5277, ahead of 1.5354 resistance. Deeper fall would be seen to 1.4597 support, and then 1.4318 low. Also, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.5277 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5354 support turned resistance holds, larger down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) is still expected to continue. On resumption, next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). However, firm break of 1.5354 will indicate medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 1.6434 key resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5062; (P) 1.5107; (R1) 1.5165; More…

Range trading continues in EUR/AUD and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, above 1.5187 will target 1.5277 resistance and than 1.5354 support turned resistance next. On the downside, break of 1.4759 support will suggest that rebound from 1.4318 has completed. Intraday bias will be turn back to the downside for retesting 1.4318 low.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5354 support turned resistance holds, larger down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) is still expected to continue. On resumption, next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). However, firm break of 1.5354 will indicate medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 1.6434 key resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6789; (P) 1.6834; (R1) 1.6905; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 0.7194 resistance should confirm short term bottoming at 1.6538. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.6538 at 1.7748 next. However, sustained break of 1.6538 will resume the fall from 1.9799 and carries larger bearish implications.

In the bigger picture, while the pull back from 1.9799 is deep, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. EUR/AUD is still holding on to 1.6597 (2015 high) cluster support, with 38.2% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.6668. Larger rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) is in progress and would resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.6597 suggest bearish reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6514; (P) 1.6560; (R1) 1.6621; More…

No change in EUR/AUD’s outlook and further fall is expected with 1.6662 resistance intact. Firm break of 1.6449 support will argue that the pattern from 1.6319 has completed at 1.6844 as a corrective move, and fall from 1.7062 is ready to resume through 1.6319. On the upside, above 1.6662 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.6844 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, while 1.7062 is a medium term top, there is no clear sign of trend reversal as EUR/AUD continues to draw strong support from the medium term trend line. Break of 1.7062 will resume the larger up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) to 1.7691 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, break of 1.6449 support will argue that deeper correction is underway to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000.

EUR/AUD’s up trend continued last week and hit as high as 1.7062. Further rally is expected this week, as part of the whole up trend from 1.4281. Next target is 1.7377 projection level. On the downside, break 1.6737 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.4281 (2022 low) is in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.5254 to 1.6785 from 1.5846 at 1.7377. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.5846 support holds, even in case of another pull back.

In the longer term picture, it’s still early to decide if rise from 1.4281 is resuming whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). But in either case, further rally is in favor as long as 1.5846 support holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.7691.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6657; (P) 1.6701; (R1) 1.6789; More…

EUR/AUD’s rally accelerates to as high as 1.6881 so far and intraday bias remains on the upside. Break of 1.6786 resistance confirms larger up trend resumption. Further rise should be seen to 161.8% projection of 1.5962 to 1.6593 from 1.6085 at 1.7106 next. On the downside, below 1.6703 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) has just resumed and persistent strong support from 55 week EMA affirm medium term bullishness. 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 is next target. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.5906 support holds, in case of retreat.