Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6331; (P) 1.6371; (R1) 1.6441; More…

Focus is back on 1.6434 key resistance with EUR/AUD trading to resume recent rally. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. Nevertheless, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.6216 should confirm short term topping, after rejection by 1.6389/6434 cluster resistance zone. Intraday bias will be back on the downside in this case, to 1.6033 support and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.6389/6434 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.6389). Sustained break there should confirm that whole down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) has completed. Further rally should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.7691. However, rejection by this cluster resistance will make medium term outlook neutral at best.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6053; (P) 1.6096; (R1) 1.6119; More….

EUR/AUD lost some upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But with 1.6015 minor support intact, further rise is mildly in favor to 1.6189 high. Firm break there will resume medium term rise from 1.3624 and target 1.6587 key resistance. On the downside, below 1.6019 minor support will turn focus back to 1.5773 instead.

In the bigger picture, while there is bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, there is no clear sign of reversal yet. EUR/AUD also drew strong support from 55 day EMA and rebounded. Current rally from 1.3624 could still extend to 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). Nonetheless, we’d expect further loss of upside momentum, and strong resistance from 1.6587 to limit upside and bring reversal.

EUR/AUD rebounded to 1.6139 last week but failed to break through 1.6189 resistance and reversed. Initial bias remains mildly on the downside this week for 1.5773 support, and possibly below. But for the moment, we’re viewing price actions from 1.6189 as developing into a consolidation pattern. Hence, downside should be contained above 1.5621 support to bring another rally. On the upside, above 1.6139 will target 1.6189 high again.

In the bigger picture, while there is bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, there is no clear sign of reversal yet. EUR/AUD also drew strong support from 55 day EMA and rebounded. Current rally from 1.3624 could still extend to 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). Nonetheless, we’d expect further loss of upside momentum, and strong resistance from 1.6587 to limit upside and bring reversal. On the downside, sustained break of 1.5621 support should confirm reversal and turn outlook bearish for 1.5153 support and below.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3671 should indicate long term reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

EUR/AUD continued to stay in range of 1.4791/5173 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 1.5173/5226 resistance zone will finally resume larger rise from 1.3624. In that case, EUR/AUD will target 1.5644 resistance first. On the downside, break of 1.4791 support will turn bias to the downside and extend the fall from 1.5173 to retest 1.4421 support.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term top has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to extend to retest 1.6587. The corrective structure of the price actions from 1.5226 is affirming this view. Above 1.5226 will target a test on 1.6587 key resistance. However, break of 1.4421 support will dampen our view and would drag EUR/AUD lower to retest key support zone around 1.3624.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3671 should confirm trend reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5947; (P) 1.6051; (R1) 1.6108; More….

Despite recovery to 1.5154, EUR/AUD quickly reversed and intraday bias is turned neutral again. On the downside, break of 1.5696 will extend the pull back from 1.6765 to 61.8% retracement of 1.5346 to 1.6765 at 1.5888 and below. On the upside, above 1.6154 will turn bias to the upside for retesting 1.6765 high.

In the bigger picture, the failure to sustain above 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high), argues that up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low), is not ready to resume yet. But still, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will remain bullish. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5151; (P) 1.5275; (R1) 1.5357; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is turned neutral as it retreated after failing to sustain above 1.5396 resistance. For now, further rally is in favor as long as 1.5047 support holds. Firm break of 1.5416 will carry larger bullish implication. Next target is 161.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.4965 from 1.4716 at 1.5823.

In the bigger picture, current development raises the chance of medium term bottoming at at 1.4281, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Firm break of 1.5396 will bring stronger rally back to 1.6434 key resistance next. Nevertheless, rejection by 1.5396 will maintain medium term bearishness for another fall through 1.4281 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5876; (P) 1.5932; (R1) 1.5962; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Further rally will remain in favor as long as 1.5776 support holds. Above 1.6223 will resume whole rise from 1.5354 to 1.6434 resistance first. However, break of 1.5776 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.5559 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.5354 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.5250 low. Further rise cannot be ruled out, but even in that case, strong resistance should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988. Larger down trend from 1.9799 is in favor to extend through 1.5250 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6538; (P) 1.6569; (R1) 1.6602; More…

Range trading continues in EUR/AUD and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Near term outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 1.6439 support holds. On the upside, above 1.6677 will target 1.6742 first. Decisive break there will resume whole rise from 1.6127 and target 1.6844 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Break of 1.6844 resistance will argue that this up trend is ready to resume through 1.7062 high. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound.

EUR/AUD rose to as high as 1.6121 last week but failed to take out 1.6122 key resistance yet. With a temporary top in place, initial bias is turned neutral this week first. On the upside, decisive break of 1.6122 will confirm the bullish view that correction from 1.6765 has completed with three waves down to 1.5683. In this case, further rise should be seen back to retest 1.6765 high. On the downside, break of 1.5905 support will indicate rejection by 1.6122 and turn bias to the downside for 1.5806 support and below.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will still remain bullish. Up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) is still in progress for 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection of 1.1602 to 1.6587 from 1.3624 at 1.8069. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.5346 remains intact.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6636; (P) 1.6735; (R1) 1.6929; More…

EUR/AUD rebounded strongly after drawing support from 1.6597 key long term support level. A short term bottom is likely formed with firm break of 4 hour 55 EMA, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.7321 resistance first. Break will confirm this case and target 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.6538 at 1.7748 next. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 1.6538 holds.

In the bigger picture, while the pull back from 1.9799 is deep, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. EUR/AUD is still holding on to 1.6597 (2015 high) cluster support, with 38.2% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.6668. Larger rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) is in progress and would resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.6597 suggest bearish reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5771; (P) 1.5830; (R1) 1.5866; More…

EUR/AUD dips lower today but stays above 1.5721 low so far. Intraday bias remain s neutral first. On the downside, decisive break of 1.5271 will resume the fall from 1.6765 and target 1.5346 support next. On the upside, in case of another recovery, upside should be limited by 1.6122 resistance.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will remain bullish. Uptrend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4933; (P) 1.4976; (R1) 1.5024; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, firm break of 1.4934 minor support will confirm short term topping, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, after hitting 1.5094 key resistance. In that case, deeper pull back would be seen to 55 day EMA (now at 1.4570). Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.5094 resistance will extend the rally from 1.3624 to next medium term fibonacci level at 1.5455.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction should be completed at 1.3624 after defending 1.3671 key support. Rise from 1.3642 is now expected to target 61.8% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.5455 and above. In any case, outlook will now stay cautiously bullish as long as 1.4309 resistance turned support holds.

EUR/AUD edged lower to 1.6144 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Deeper fall is still in favor as long as 1.6374 resistance holds. Break of 1.6144 will target a test on 1.6033. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend from 1.9799. However, break of 1.6374 resistance will extend the consolidation from 1.6033 with another rising leg, and turn bias to the upside for 1.6827.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions form 1.9799 might be developing into a sideway pattern only. That is, medium term outlook is just neutral, and up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) could resume at a later stage. On the downside, though, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 1.6459) would revive medium term bearishness for 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733.

In the longer term picture rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) could have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799. The development suggests that long term range trading is extending with another medium term down leg. Sustained trading below 55 month EMA (now at 1.5823) will further affirm this case and target 1.1602/3624 support zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4522; (P) 1.4620; (R1) 1.4683; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays on the downside at this point. Fall from 1.5396 should target a test on 1.4318 low next. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend. On the upside, above 1.4803 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral, and bring consolidations first, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 1.5354 support turned resistance, as well as 55 week EMA (now at 1.5378), maintain medium term bearishness. That is, larger down trend from 1.9799 is not completed yet. Break of 1.4318 low will target 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.5396 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5996; (P) 1.6018; (R1) 1.6054; More….

EUR/AUD is staying in consolidation below 1.6189 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Further rally is expected as long as 1.5857 minor support holds. On the upside, break of 1.6189 will resume the whole rally from 1.5153 and target 1.6587 key resistance. Nonetheless, break of 1.5857 will be an early sign of trend reversal and turn bias to the downside for 1.5621 support to confirm.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rise from 1.3624 is not completed yet. And it’s still in progress for 1.6587 key resistance level. We’d be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. But for now, break of 1.5621 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stays bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4953; (P) 1.5009; (R1) 1.5115; More…

EUR/AUD’s rise from 1.4625 resumed by taking out 1.4997 and reaches as high as 1.5074 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.5226 resistance. Rise from 1.3624 is possibly resuming. Break of 1.5226 will confirm and target 1.5455 fibonacci level next. On the downside, however, break of 1.4901 minor support will dampen this bullish view and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction should be completed at 1.3624 after defending 1.3671 key support. Rise from 1.3642 would extend to 61.8% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.5455. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.6587. However, sustained break of 1.4669 support will dampen this bullish view. We’ll assess the outlook later after looking at the structure and depth of the pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5775; (P) 1.5824; (R1) 1.5853; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral first. On the upside, sustained trading above 38.2% retracement of 1.6827 to 1.5250 at 1.5852 will bring further rise to 1.6033 key support turned resistance. On the downside, though, break of 1.5657 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.5418 support first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6033 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound. However, firm break of 1.6033 will argue that such decline has completed, and turn focus to 1.6827 structural resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5015; (P) 1.5078; (R1) 1.5133; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 1.4882 support will reaffirm that case that corrective rebound from 1.4318 has completed at 1.5277, ahead of 1.5354 resistance. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 1.4597 support first. Break there will bring retest of 1.4318 low. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.5277 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5354 support turned resistance holds, larger down trend form 1.9799 (2020 high) is still expected to continue. On resumption, next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). However, firm break of 1.5354 will indicate medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 1.6434 key resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5398; (P) 1.5468; (R1) 1.5525; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains mildly on the downside for retesting 1.5250. Corrective rebound from there should have completed at 1.5689 after hitting channel resistance. Break of 1.5250 will resume larger down trend form 1.9799, for 1.4733 fibonacci level. On the upside, above 1.5689 will bring another rebound. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.5945 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6033 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6469; (P) 1.6487; (R1) 1.6523; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral at this point. On the upside, decisive break of 1.6671 will revive the case that whole correction from 1.7062 has completed with three waves down to 1.6127. Further rally should then be seen to 1.6844 resistance for confirmation. Nevertheless, below 1.6455 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 1.6348 and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Break of 1.6844 resistance will argue that this up trend is ready to resume through 1.7062 high. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound.