Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6228; (P) 1.6288; (R1) 1.6335; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral as consolidation form 1.6448 is extending. Deeper pull back could be seen but downside should be contained above 1.6052 support to bring rise resumption. On the upside, break of 1.6448 will resume the rally from 1.5683 and target 1.6765 high.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will still remain bullish. Up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal and turn outlook bearish.

EUR/AUD edged lower to 1.5519 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias is neutral this week first. As long as 1.5693 minor resistance intact, further decline is expected. On the downside, break of 1.5519 will resume the decline from 1.6357 for 1.5271/5313 cluster support zone next. On the upside, break of 1.5693 should indicate short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. In that case, stronger rebound would be seen back to 55 day EMA (now at 1.5940).

In the bigger picture, current development argues that up trend from 1.3624 (2017 low) is possibly completed at 1.6357, ahead of 1.6587 (2015 high). This is supported by bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Deeper decline is now in favor to 1.5271 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6357 at 1.5313). Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.4668. On the upside, break of 1.5984 support turned resistance is now needed to revive the prior medium term up trend. Otherwise, further decline will be in favor even in case of strong interim rebound.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3624 key support should indicate long term reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5983; (P) 1.6004; (R1) 1.6032; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral first, but further rise is expected with 1.5925 support intact. On the upside, break of 1.6182 will resume the rise from 1.5250 to 1.6827 resistance next. However, on the downside, firm break of 1.5925 will bring deeper fall back to 1.5614 structural support instead.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom was formed at 1.5250, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Rise from 1.5250 is currently seen as a correction to the down trend from 1.9799 first. Stronger rise would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988 next. We’d tentatively expect strong resistance from there to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Meanwhile, break of 1.5614 support will indicate that the rebound has completed and bring retest of 1.5250 low.

EUR/AUD’s sharp decline and firm break of 1.5984 support last week is taken as an early sign of medium term trend reversal. But with a temporary low in place at 1.5742, initial bias is neutral this week first. Some consolidation could be seen but upside should be limited by 1.5984 support turned resistance to bring another decline. Below 1.5742 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.5601 support. Break there will pave the way to 1.5271/5313 cluster support zone next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that up trend from 1.3624 (2017 low) is possibly completed at 1.6357, ahead of 1.6587 (2015 high). This is supported by bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Deeper decline is now in favor to 1.5271 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6357 at 1.5313). Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.4668. On the upside, break of 1.6357 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, risk will now stay on the downside even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3624 key support should indicate long term reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

EUR/AUD dropped further to 1.5655 last week but quickly recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first. At this point, we’re slightly favoring the case the rebound from 1.5354 has completed with three waves up to 1.6168. Below 1.5655 will affirm this week and target 1.5354 and then 1.5250 low. However, above 1.5905 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.6168 instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook remains neutral for the moment. Rise from 1.5354 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.5250 low. Further rise cannot be ruled out, but even in that case, strong resistance should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988. Larger down trend from 1.9799 is in favor to extend through 1.5250 at a later stage.

In the longer term picture, fall from 1.9799 (2020 high) is seen as a long term down trend. Further decline will remain in favor as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988 holds. Break of 1.5250 will target 61.8 retracement of 1.1602 (2012 low) to 1.9799 at 1.4733

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4079; (P) 1.4128; (R1) 1.4160; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. As it is still holding above 1.3872 support, we’re mildly favoring the case of trend reversal after defending key support level at 1.3671. On the upside, break of 1.4309 will extend the rebound from 1.3624 to 1.4721 key resistance level next. Decisive break of 1.4721 should confirm larger trend reversal. However, firm break of 1.3872 support will dampen our bullish view. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.3624 low instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction could be completed after testing 1.3671 key support. Break of 1.4721 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.4756) should confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement at 1.5455 and above. Overall, we’d expect the up trend from 1.1602 to resume later. However, sustained break of 1.3671 will invalidate our bullish view and would turn extend the fall from 1.6587 towards 1.1602 long term bottom.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5586; (P) 1.5627; (R1) 1.5681; More….

EUR/AUD formed a temporary low at 1.5575 and recovered. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. Stronger recovery might be seen to 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.5741. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.6357 to 1.5575 at 1.5874) to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 1.5575 will target 1.5271/5313 cluster support zone next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that up trend from 1.3624 (2017 low) is possibly completed at 1.6357, ahead of 1.6587 (2015 high). This is supported by bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Deeper decline is now in favor to 1.5271 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6357 at 1.5313). Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.4668. On the upside, break of 1.5984 support turned resistance is now needed to revive the prior medium term up trend. Otherwise, further decline will be in favor even in case of interim rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4759; (P) 1.4854; (R1) 1.4935; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral for the moment, and further rise is in favor as long as 1.4663 minor support holds. On the upside, break of 1.4965 will resume the rise from 1.4281 towards 1.5396 resistance. On the downside, however, break of 1.4663 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.4281 low.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.9799 is still in progress. Break of 1.4318 low will target 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.5396 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5608; (P) 1.5634; (R1) 1.5659; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains mildly on the downside at this point. Current fall from 1.6434 should target 161.8% projection of 1.6434 to 1.5907 from 1.6232 at 1.5379 next. On the upside, above 1.5753 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.5907 support turned resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.5250 medium term bottom is seen as a correction to the down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) only. With 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988 intact, such down trend is expected to resume at a later stage. Firm break of 1.5250 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 (2012 low) to 1.9799 at 1.4733. In any case, sustained break of 1.6988 fibonacci level is needed to indicate long term reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5586; (P) 1.5638; (R1) 1.5701; More…

Sideway consolidation continues in EUR/AUD and intraday bias remains neutral first. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 55 day EMA (now at 1.5360) to bring rebound. On the upside, decisive break of 1.5704 will resume larger rise from 1.4281. However, sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper correction towards 1.4965 resistance turned support.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.4281, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Further rise would be seen back to 1.6434 key resistance next. Break of 1.4965 resistance turned support is needed to indicate reversal. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4709; (P) 1.4747; (R1) 1.4822; More…

EUR/AUD’s recovery argues that pull back from 1.5226 might be completed after drawing support from 38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.5226 at 1.4614. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside for retesting 1.5226 high. However, sustained break of 1.4614 fibonacci level will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.4236 and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction should be completed at 1.3624 after defending 1.3671 key support. Rise from 1.3642 would extend to 61.8% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.5455. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.6587. However, sustained break of 1.4669 support will dampen this bullish view. We’ll assess the outlook later after looking at the structure and depth of the pull back.

EUR/AUD rose to as high as 1.5919 last week. The solid break of 1.5816 resistance confirmed medium term rise resumption. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 61.8% projection of 1.5258 to 1.5816 from 1.5626 at 1.5971. Break will target 1.6526. On the downside, below 1.5786 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.5626 support holds.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 1.3624 is still in progress for 1.6587 key resistance. At this point, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside. But decisive break will confirm resumption of long term rise from 1.1602. On the downside, break of 1.5153 support is needed to indicate completion of the medium term rise. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of pull back.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3671 should indicate long term reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6137; (P) 1.6226; (R1) 1.6288; More..

EUR/AUD quickly retreated after recovery to 1.6313 and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, below . 1.6137 will target 100% projection of 1.7062 to 1.6319 from 1.6844 at 1.6106. Meanwhile, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.6313 resistance should indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for 1.6478 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as correcting the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000. Strong support could be seen there to bring rebound on first attempt. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.6844 resistance holds. Sustained break of 1.6000 would bring further fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.5343.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5351; (P) 1.5396; (R1) 1.5440; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is mildly on the upside for the moment. A short term bottom was formed at 1.5153 on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Further rise would be seen back to retest 1.5770 high. On the downside, break of 1.5153 will resume the fall from 1.5770 to 1.4949 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.5770 at 1.4950).

In the bigger picture, decline from 1.5770 just breached 1.5226 key support briefly and recovered. The development is reviving the bullish case that rise from 1.3624 is still in progress. But considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, we’d prefer to see firm break of 1.5770 resistance to confirm. On the downside, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 1.4950) will likely bring retest of 1.3624 support. Overall, there is still prospect of another medium term rally as long as 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.6587 at 1.3506 holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6146; (P) 1.6185; (R1) 1.6219; More…

Consolidation from 1.6033 is still in progress and intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral first. Above 1.6299 minor resistance might bring another recovery. But outlook stays bearish as long as 1.6586 resistance holds. . On the downside, firm break of 1.6033 will confirm resumption of whole fall from 1.9799. Deeper fall would then be seen to long term EMA at 1.5790.

In the bigger picture, whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) might have completed at 1.9799. Deeper fall could be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 1.5790). Sustained break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. This will remain the preferred case now as long as 1.6586 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5560; (P) 1.5597; (R1) 1.5633; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. Further fall is expected as long as 1.5743 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.5354 will resume whole fall from 1.6434 to retest 1.5250 low. Nevertheless, break of 1.5743 will turn near term outlook bullish for 1.5907 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) is in progress. Firm break of 1.5250 low will confirm resumption and target 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 (2012 low) to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Sustained break there could bring more downside acceleration to 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623. In any case, break of 1.6434 resistance is needed to signal medium term bottoming, or outlook will stay bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5174; (P) 1.5263; (R1) 1.5420; More….

Sharp fall from 1.5392 indicates temporary topping. Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is turned neutral first. Outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1494 support holds. Break of 1.5392 will resume medium term rise from 1.3624 and target 61.8% projection of 1.3624 to 1.5226 from 1.4949 at 1.5939 first.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term top has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to extend to retest 1.6587. The corrective structure of the price actions from 1.5226 is affirming this view. Sustained trading above 1.5226 will target a test on 1.6587 key resistance. However, break of 1.4421 support will dampen our view and would drag EUR/AUD lower to retest key support zone around 1.3624.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6572; (P) 1.6626; (R1) 1.6692; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the upside for retesting 1.6742 resistance first. Decisive break there will resume whole rise from 1.6127 and target 1.6844 resistance next. For now, near term outlook will remain cautiously bullish as long as 1.6439 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Break of 1.6844 resistance will argue that this up trend is ready to resume through 1.7062 high. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5838; (P) 1.5914; (R1) 1.5980; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. Strong support is still expected from around 100% projection of 1.6785 to 1.6134 from 1.6513 at 1.5862 to complete the fall from 1.6785. On the upside, break of 1.6101 resistance will confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for rebound.

In the bigger picture, a medium term is possibly in place at 1.6785 already, on bearish divergence condition in D MACD. Fall from there is seen as corrective whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline is expected as long as 1.6513 resistance holds, to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.6785 at 1.5828. Strong support could be seen there to complete the first leg of the corrective pattern.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5506; (P) 1.5539; (R1) 1.5592; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Another fall cannot be ruled out, but strong support could be seen from 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.5976 at 1.5329 to complete the correction from 1.5976. Firm break of 1.5614 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.5976. However, sustained trading below 1.5329 will carry larger bearish implication and target 61.8% retracement at 1.4928.

In the bigger picture, it’s still early to confirm if rise from 1.4281 represents bullish trend reversal. But as long as 1.5271 support holds, such rally is in favor to continue. Break of 1.5976 will target 1.6434 key resistance next. On the other hand, firm break of 1.5271 will retain medium term bearishness instead.