EUR/AUD’s up trend continued last week. Disregarding the initial spike, it still reached as high as 1.8109. Initial bias remains on the upside this week. Current up trend should target next medium term fibonacci projection level at 1.8619. On the downside, break of 1.7286 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is in progress for 100% projection of 1.1602 to 1.6597 from 1.3524 at 1.8619. On the downside, break of 1.6085 support is needed to indicate medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) is still in progress for 100% projection of 1.1602 to 1.6597 from 1.3524 at 1.8619. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 2.1127 (2008 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6782; (P) 1.6819; (R1) 1.6882; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral at this point. Outlook also stays bullish with 1.6737 support intact. Break of 1.7062 will resume larger rise from 1.481 to 1.7377 projection level next. However, firm break of 1.6737 will bring deeper pull back to 1.6601 resistance turned support instead.

In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.4281 (2022 low) is in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.5254 to 1.6785 from 1.5846 at 1.7377. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.5846 support holds, even in case of another pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6454; (P) 1.6484; (R1) 1.6536; More…

EUR/AUD’s break of 1.6398 minor support argues that rebound from 1.6127 has completed at 1.6671, after rejection by falling channel resistance. Corrective pattern from 1.7062 is possibly still extending, and has just started another leg. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 1.6127 low. On the upside, though, above 1.6512 will flip bias back to the upside for 1.6671 instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Break of 1.6844 resistance will argue that this up trend is ready to resume through 1.7062 high. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5893; (P) 1.5920; (R1) 1.5946; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.5894 temporary low. Stronger recovery could be seen but upside should be limited below 1.6231 resistance to bring another fall. Decline from 1.6448 is seen as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.6765 high. Break of 1.5894 will target 1.5683 support and below.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will still remain bullish. Up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal and turn outlook bearish.

EUR/AUD drew supported from 1.5626 and bottomed at 1.5621, then rebounded strongly. The development suggests that larger up t rend from 1.3624 is not finished yet. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for retesting 1.5976 high first. Break will resume the upside for 61.8% projection of 1.5130 to 1.5976 from 1.5621 at 1.6130 first. On the downside, below 1.5784 minor support will delay the bullish case and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rise from 1.3624 is not completed yet. And it’s still in progress for 1.6587 key resistance level. We’d be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. But for now, break of 1.5153 support is needed to indicate medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stays bullish even in case of deep pull back.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3671 should indicate long term reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6438; (P) 1.6491; (R1) 1.6536; More…

Focus stays on 1.6552 resistance in EUR/AUD. As noted before, correction from 1.6785 should have completed with three waves down to 1.5846. On the upside, break of 1.6552 will target a retest on 1.6785 high next. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.6231 support holds, even in case of another dip.

In the bigger picture, with 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.6785 at 1.5828 intact, rally from 1.4281 is still in progress. Firm break of 1.6785 will confirm rise resumption. Next target is 100% projection of 1.5254 to 1.6785 from 1.5846 at 1.7377. On the other hand, rejection by 1.6785 will extend the corrective pattern with another fall leg. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.5828 holds.

EUR/AUD extended the consolidation from 1.6444 last week. Immediate focus is now on 1.6444 after the strong rebound from 1.6219. Decisive break of 1.6434/44 resistance will carry larger bullish implications. Rally from 1.4281 should target 100% projection of 1.4281 to 1.5976 from 1.5254 at 1.6949. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.6219 support should confirm short term topping, after rejection by 1.6389/6434 cluster resistance zone. Intraday bias will be back on the downside in this case, to 1.6033 support and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.6389/6434 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.6389). Sustained break there should confirm that whole down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) has completed. Further rally should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.7691. However, rejection by this cluster resistance will make medium term outlook neutral at best.

In the longer term picture, the strong break above 55 M EMA (now at 1.5646) raised the chance of bullish trend reversal. Firm break of 1.6434 resistance should confirm that the down trend from 1.9799 has completed. It’s still early to decide if the up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is resuming. An assessment will be made after rise from 1.4281 reveals more of its structure.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6636; (P) 1.6735; (R1) 1.6929; More…

EUR/AUD rebounded strongly after drawing support from 1.6597 key long term support level. A short term bottom is likely formed with firm break of 4 hour 55 EMA, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.7321 resistance first. Break will confirm this case and target 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.6538 at 1.7748 next. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 1.6538 holds.

In the bigger picture, while the pull back from 1.9799 is deep, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. EUR/AUD is still holding on to 1.6597 (2015 high) cluster support, with 38.2% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.6668. Larger rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) is in progress and would resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.6597 suggest bearish reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6137; (P) 1.6226; (R1) 1.6288; More..

EUR/AUD quickly retreated after recovery to 1.6313 and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, below . 1.6137 will target 100% projection of 1.7062 to 1.6319 from 1.6844 at 1.6106. Meanwhile, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.6313 resistance should indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for 1.6478 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as correcting the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000. Strong support could be seen there to bring rebound on first attempt. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.6844 resistance holds. Sustained break of 1.6000 would bring further fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.5343.

EUR/AUD dropped to 1.4281 last week, but failed to sustain below 1.4318 low and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first, and further decline is still expected. On the downside, firm break of 1.4318 low will resume larger down trend to medium term projection level at 1.3623. On the upside, break of 1.4712 resistance will delay the bearish case and turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound first.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.9799 is still in progress. Break of 1.4318 low will target 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.5396 resistance holds.

In the longer term picture, fall from 1.9799 (2020 high) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Deeper fall should be seen to 1.3624 support. Decisive break there would pave the way back to 1.1602 (2012 low). This will remain the favored case as long as 55 month EMA (now at 1.5656) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6258; (P) 1.6483; (R1) 1.6602; More…

EUR/AUD’s decline from 1.9799 resumes by taking out 1.6453. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Current development argues that medium term trend could have reversed. Next down side target is 1.6085 support first. On the upside, break of 1.6772 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, the firm break of 1.6597 key cluster support, (2015 high and 38.2% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.6668, 55 week EMA (now at 1.6553) suggests that whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) might have completed. Deeper fall would now be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.4733. This week remain the preferred case now as long as 1.7194 resistance holds.

EUR/AUD’s rebound last week indicates short term bottoming at 1.6127, on bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for 1.6478 resistance. Firm break there will argue that whole correction from 1.7062 has completed, and target 1.6844 resistance for confirmation. Nevertheless, break of 1.6127 will resume the corrective fall to 1.6000 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Strong support should be seen around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 bring rebound. Break of 1.6844 will argue that this up trend is ready to resume through 1.7062 high.

In the longer term picture, fall from 1.9799 (2020 high) is seen as a long term decline at the same scale as the rise from 1.1602 (2012 low). Rebound from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg. As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.5874) holds, this second leg could still extend higher. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will open up the bearish case for extending the decline through 1.4281 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6063; (P) 1.6119; (R1) 1.6160; More….

A temporary top is formed at 1.6171 in EUR/AUD, just ahead of 1.6189 resistance and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Some consolidations could be seen. But retreat should be contained by 1.5886 resistance turned support to bring another rally. On the upside, firm break of 100% projection of 1.5271 to 1.5886 from 1.5601 at 1.6216 will extend the larger up trend to 161.8% projection at 1.6596, which is close to another key resistance level at 1.6587.

In the bigger picture, EUR/AUD drew strong support from 55 week EMA and rebounded. And the development argues that medium term rally from 1.3624 (2017 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 1.6189 will target a test on 1.6587 (2015 high). On the downside, break of 1.5601 support will now be the first sign of medium term reversal, and will bring a test on 1.5271 key support for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4626; (P) 1.4716; (R1) 1.4769; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the downside for the moment. Fall from 1.5327 is still in progress to retest 1.4561 low. Firm break there will resume larger down trend from 1.9799. On the upside, however, break of 1.4986 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside, and extend the pattern from 1.4561 will another rising leg.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.9799 is seen as a long term impulsive move. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). Some support could be seen there to bring interim rebound. But overall, break of 1.5354 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

EUR/AUD drew from 1.6203 last week and recovered briefly. But there was no follow through buying. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, firm break of 1.6203 will argue that corrective rise from 1.5905 has completed at 1.6432. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 1.5905. On the upside, break of 1.6432 will target 1.6680/6786 resistance zone next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5894 support holds, outlook remains bullish. Firm break of 1.6786 will resume up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Next upside target is 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488. However, sustained break of 1.5894 will have 55 week EMA (now at 1.6054) firmly taken out too. That should indicate medium term topping and target 1.5346 key support next.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) is still in progress for 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.5894 remains intact. However, firm break of 1.5894 will be an early sign of major topping and turn focus to 1.5346 key support for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7019; (P) 1.7091; (R1) 1.7163; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. As long as 1.8124 resistance holds, further decline could still be seen. Break of 1.7003 will extend the fall from 1.9799 to 1.6085/6593 support zone. On the upside, though, break of 1.8124 resistance will argue that such decline has completed and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is in progress and further rally would be seen to 2.1127 (2008 high) and possibly to 161.8% projection of 1.1602 to 1.6597 from 1.3524 at 2.1706. On the downside, for now, touching of 1.6597 resistance turned support (2015 high) is needed to indicate medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

EUR/AUD rose further to 1.5416 last week but failed to sustain above 1.5396 resistance and retreated. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Further rally is in favor as long as 1.5047 support holds. Firm break of 1.5416 will carry larger bullish implication. Next target is 161.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.4965 from 1.4716 at 1.5823. However, break of 1.5047 will turn bias back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.4867).

In the bigger picture, current development raises the chance of medium term bottoming at at 1.4281, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Firm break of 1.5396 will bring stronger rally back to 1.6434 key resistance next. Nevertheless, rejection by 1.5396 will maintain medium term bearishness for another fall through 1.4281 at a later stage.

In the longer term picture, as long as 55 month EMA (now at 1.5599) holds, the down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) could still extend to 1.3624 long term support, and below. However, sustained trading above 55 month EMA will raise the chance that this down trend was over. Further break of 1.6434 resistance should confirm medium term bullish reversal.

EUR/AUD dropped further to as low as 1.6025 last week and breached 1.6052 support. With a temporary low in place, initial bias is neutral this week first. Upside of consolidation should be limited below 1.6259 resistance to bring fall resumption. Decline from 1.6448 is now seen as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.6765 high. Break of 1.6025 will target 1.5683 support and below.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will still remain bullish. Up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal and turn outlook bearish.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) is still in progress for 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.5346 remains intact.

EUR/AUD dropped sharply to as low as 1.5773 last week before forming a temporary low there and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Upside of recovery should be limited below 1.6055 minor resistance to bring another fall. Break of 1.5773 will target 1.5621 support first. Decisive break there will be another indication of medium term trend reversal.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal is building up in EUR/AUD. Bearish divergence condition in daily MACD indicates further loss of upside momentum ahead of 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). Break of 1.5621 should confirm medium term topping and bring deeper fall back to 1.5153 and possibly below. Meanwhile, even in case of up trend resumption, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.6587 to limit upside and bring reversal.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3671 should indicate long term reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6749; (P) 1.6909; (R1) 1.7114; More…

With 1.6827 minor support intact, intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the upside for 161.8% projection of 1.5962 to 1.6593 from 1.6085 at 1.7106. Break will target 200% projection at 1.7347 next. On the downside, below 1.6827 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But downside of retreat should be contained by 1.6593 resistance turned support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) has just resumed and persistent strong support from 55 week EMA affirm medium term bullishness. 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 is next target. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.5906 support holds, in case of retreat.