Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6359; (P) 1.6460; (R1) 1.6516; More…

EUR/AUD’s pull back from 1.6601 extends lower today but stays well above 1.6231 support. Intraday bias remains neutral first and outlook stays cautiously bullish. On the upside, break of 1.6601 will resume the rebound from 1.5846 and target 1.6785 high next. However, firm break of 1.6231 will bring deeper fall to extend the corrective pattern from 1.6785.

In the bigger picture, with 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.6785 at 1.5828 intact, rally from 1.4281 is still in progress. Firm break of 1.6785 will confirm rise resumption. Next target is 100% projection of 1.5254 to 1.6785 from 1.5846 at 1.7377. On the other hand, rejection by 1.6785 will extend the corrective pattern with another fall leg. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.5828 holds.

EUR/AUD’s strong rebound from 1.6368 extended higher last week and the development argues that fall from 1.6742 has completed with three waves down to 1.6368. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for retesting 1.6742 next. On the downside, however, break of 1.6534 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.6368 support instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). In case of another fall, strong support is expected around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound. Break of 1.7062 is in favor as a later stage.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.9799 (2020 high) are seen as a long term decline at the same scale as the rise from 1.1602 (2012 low). Rebound from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg. As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.5950) holds, this second leg could still extend higher. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will open up the bearish case for extending the decline through 1.4281 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5896; (P) 1.5966; (R1) 1.6008; More…

EUR/AUD’s fall resumed after brief consolidation and intraday bias is back on the downside. Current decline from 1.6448 is seen as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.6765 high. Deeper fall should be seen to 1.5683 support and below. On the upside, above 1.6034 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will still remain bullish. Up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal and turn outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5848; (P) 1.5928; (R1) 1.5986; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. We’d continue to favor further rise ahead. On the upside, decisive break of 1.6060 resistance should confirm that decline from 1.6765 has completed. Further rally should then be seen to retest 1.6765 high. On the downside, however, break of 1.5721 will extend the decline to 1.5346 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will remain bullish. Uptrend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5024; (P) 1.5109; (R1) 1.5232; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is turned neutral for now, with focus on 1.5354 cluster resistance (100% projection of 1.4318 to 1.5053 from 1.4597 at 1.5332. Rejection by this level will maintain medium term bearishness for another fall through 1.4138 low at a later stage. But firm break of 1.5332/54 will argue that the larger trend is reversing. Next target is 161.8% projection at 1.5786 first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5354 support turned resistance holds, larger down trend form 1.9799 (2020 high) is still expected to continue. On resumption, next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). However, firm break of 1.5354 will indicate medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 1.6434 key resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4982; (P) 1.5145; (R1) 1.5239; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is turned neutral first with current retreat. But further rally is expected as long as 1.4965 resistance turned support holds. Above 1.5334 will resume the rally from 1.4281 to 1.5396 key resistance. Firm break there will carry larger bullish implication. On the downside, however, break of 1.4965 will bring deeper fall to 1.4716 support and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, current development raises the chance of medium term bottoming at at 1.4281, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Firm break of 1.5396 will bring stronger rally back to 1.6434 key resistance next. Nevertheless, rejection by 1.5396 will maintain medium term bearishness for another fall through 1.4281 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5813; (P) 1.5852; (R1) 1.5879; More….

EUR/AUD’s sharp decline and break of 1.5774 indicates resumption of fall from 1.6139. Intraday bias is back on the downside towards 1.5621 support. For now, price actions from 1.6189 are viewed as a corrective pattern. So strong support would be seen above 1.5621 to bring rebound. But break of 1.5887 resistance is needed to indicate near term reversal first. Otherwise, deeper fall is expected even in case of recovery. Meanwhile, decisive break of 1.5621 will carry larger bearish implications.

In the bigger picture, while there is bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, there is no clear sign of reversal yet. Current rally from 1.3624 could extend to 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). Nonetheless, we’d expect further loss of upside momentum, and strong resistance from 1.6587 to limit upside and bring reversal. On the downside, sustained break of 1.5621 support should confirm reversal and turn outlook bearish for 1.5153 support and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6384; (P) 1.6407; (R1) 1.6428; More…

EUR/AUD’s correction from 1.0762 has possibly completed with three waves down to 1.5996, after hitting 1.6000 fibonacci support. Break of 1.6148 resistance affirms this case. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 1.6742 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.6384 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) only. Strong support is still expected between 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound. Break of 1.6742 resistance indicate that the up trend is ready to resume through 1.7062.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5523; (P) 1.5578; (R1) 1.5614; More…

EUR/AUD’s consolidation from 1.5250 is still extending and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, break of 1.5672 will bring stronger rebound. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.6827 to 1.5250 at 1.5852. On the downside, below 1.5423 should bring retest of 1.5250 low. Overall, down trend from 1.9799 is expected to resume after consolidation from 1.5250 completes.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6033 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6292; (P) 1.6332; (R1) 1.6364; More…

EUR/AUD retreated after hitting 1.6420 and intraday bias is turned neutral. We’re viewing rebound from 1.6122 as a rising leg in the consolidation pattern from 1.6033. Above 1.6420 will target 1.6827 resistance. On the downside, though, break of 1.6122 will bring retest of 1.6033 low.

In the bigger picture, price action from 1.9799 are seen as developing into a corrective pattern. The question is whether it’s a sideway pattern or a deep correction. On the downside, sustained break of 1.6033 will suggest it’s the latter case and target 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 (2012 low) to 1.9799 at 1.4733. On the upside, break of 1.6827 resistance will favor the former case and bring stronger rebound.

EUR/AUD’s rally and break of 1.5019 last week suggests that rebound from 1.4421 has resumed. More importantly, it revived the case that correction from 1.5226 has completed with three waves down to 1.4421. Initial bias is back on the upside this week for 1.5073 resistance first. Break there will affirm the case that whole rebound from 1.3624 is resuming and target 1.5226 high. On the downside, below 1.4882 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will remain cautiously bullish as long as 1.4732 support holds.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to extend to retest 1.6587. The corrective structure of the fall from 1.5226 is affirming this view. Above 1.5226 will target a test on 1.6587 key resistance. However, break of 1.4421 will dampen our view and would drag EUR/AUD lower to retest key support zone around 1.3624.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3671 should confirm trend reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6100; (P) 1.6209; (R1) 1.6371; More….

EUR/AUD’s rally resumed after brief consolidation and reaches as high as 1.6316 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Current rise from 1.5346 should target 1.6357 high. At this point, we’d be cautious on topping around there to bring pull back. On the downside, break of 1.6047 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that 1.6357 is a medium term top. But the strong rebound ahead of 1.5271 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6357 at 1.5313) suggests price actions from 1.6357 are developing into sideway consolidation, rather than a deep correction. The range of 1.5271/6357 is likely set for the consolidation. And we don’t expect a break of the range any time soon. But decisive break of 1.6357 will resume the larger up trend from 1.3624 (2017 low) to 1.6587 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3924; (P) 1.3992; (R1) 1.4034; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. At this point, we’re still mildly favoring the case of trend reversal. And, another rise is expected as long as 1.3872 support holds. Above 1.4309 should send the cross through channel resistance (now at 1.4364) to 1.4721 key resistance. However, break of 1.3872 will dampen our bullish view and bring retest of 1.3642 low instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction could be completed after testing 1.3671 support. Break of 1.4721 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.4756) should confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement at 1.5455 and above. Overall, we’d expect the up trend from 1.1602 to resume later. However, sustained break of 1.3671 will invalidate our bullish view and would turn focus back to 1.1602 long term bottom.

EUR/AUD dropped to 1.5423 last week, but stabilized there and recovered. Initial bias is turned neutral this week and outlook is unchanged. Consolidation pattern from 1.5250 low might extend further. On the downside, break of 1.5423 will target 1.5355 support, and then 1.5250. On the upside, break of 1.5672 resistance will bring stronger rise. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.6827 to 1.5250 at 1.5852 to bring larger down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6033 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) could have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799. The development suggests that long term range trading is extending with another medium term down leg. Sustained trading below 55 month EMA (now at 1.5818) now further affirms this case could bring deeper decline to 1.1602/3624 support zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6303; (P) 1.6355; (R1) 1.6421; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the upside and rebound from 1.6085 is in progress. Break of 1.6448 resistance will target 1.6593 next. On the downside, break of 1.6288 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.6085 support intact.

In the bigger picture, EUR/AUD is still struggling in established range of 1.5905/6786. And it’s trying to draw support from 55 week EMA (now at 1.6122) again. For now, larger up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is still in favor to continue as long as 1.5962 support holds. Break of 1.6786 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6137; (P) 1.6226; (R1) 1.6288; More..

EUR/AUD quickly retreated after recovery to 1.6313 and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, below . 1.6137 will target 100% projection of 1.7062 to 1.6319 from 1.6844 at 1.6106. Meanwhile, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.6313 resistance should indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for 1.6478 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as correcting the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000. Strong support could be seen there to bring rebound on first attempt. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.6844 resistance holds. Sustained break of 1.6000 would bring further fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.5343.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6398; (P) 1.6456; (R1) 1.6500; More..

EUR/AUD’s decline from 1.6742 resumed by breaking through 1.6412 support and intraday bias is back on the downside. Current development suggests that rebound from 1.6127 has completed. Break of 100% projection of 1.6742 to 1.6439 from 1.6677 at 1.6374 will pave the way to 161.8% projection at 1.6187 next. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.6503 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). The correction is still in progress with fall from 1.6742 as the third leg. Strong support is expected around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4941; (P) 1.5014; (R1) 1.5057; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains mildly on the downside for 1.4732 support. The cross could have failed 1.5226 resistance and rebound from 1.4421 is likely finished. Fall from 1.5173 is viewed as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.5226. Break of 1.4372 will target 1.4421 again. But we’d expect strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.5042 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.5173 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to extend to retest 1.6587. The corrective structure of the price actions from 1.5226 is affirming this view. Above 1.5226 will target a test on 1.6587 key resistance. However, break of 1.4421 will dampen our view and would drag EUR/AUD lower to retest key support zone around 1.3624.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6268; (P) 1.6306; (R1) 1.6367; More…

EUR/AUD’s rise from 1.5905 resumed by taking out 1.6368 resistance. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside. Further rise should be seen to 1.6680/6786 resistance zone next. On the downside, however, break of 1.6203 support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.6074 support.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5894 support holds, outlook remains bullish. Firm break of 1.6786 will resume up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Next upside target is 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488. However, sustained break of 1.5894 will have 55 week EMA (now at 1.6038) firmly taken out too. That should indicate medium term topping and target 1.5346 key support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4714; (P) 1.4758; (R1) 1.4785; More…

EUR/AUD failed to sustain above 4 hour 55 EMA and retreated. As it’s staying above 1.4625 temporary low, intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, above 1.4813 will extend the rebound from 1.4625 to retest 1.5226 high next. However, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.5226 at 1.4614 will bring deep fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.4236 and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction should be completed at 1.3624 after defending 1.3671 key support. Rise from 1.3642 would extend to 61.8% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.5455. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.6587. However, sustained break of 1.4669 support will dampen this bullish view. We’ll assess the outlook later after looking at the structure and depth of the pull back.