Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6072; (P) 1.6124; (R1) 1.6194; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 1.6232 will resume the rebound from 1.5907 to retest 1.6434 high. On the downside, below 1.6050 support will suggest that rebound from 1.5907 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.5907. Overall, with 1.5898 support intact, larger rise from 1.5250 is still in progress, and break of 1.6434 will confirm resumption.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.5250 medium term bottom is currently seen as a correction to the down trend from 1.9799 first. Stronger rise could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988 next. We’d tentatively expect strong resistance from there to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Meanwhile, break of 1.5898 support will indicate that the rebound has completed. Larger down trend from 1.9799 might be ready to resume through 1.5250 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6512; (P) 1.6589; (R1) 1.6700; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 1.6449 will target 1.6319 support first. Firm break there will resume the whole decline from 1.7062. However, above 1.6843 will resume the rebound from 1.6319 towards 1.7062 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that 1.7062 is already a medium term top. Fall from there is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). While deeper decline might be seen, strong support should emerge from 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 1.6000 will raise the chance of bearish tend reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4913; (P) 1.4972; (R1) 1.5074; More….

EUR/AUD’s rebound and break of 1.4944 minor resistance suggests that pull back from 1.5173 is completed. and rise from 1.4421 could be resuming after drawing support from 55 day EMA. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.5173/5226 resistance zone first. Break will resume medium term rally from 1.3624. On the downside, below 1.4811 will turn bias to the downside and extend the fall from 1.5173 to retest 1.4421 support.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to extend to retest 1.6587. The corrective structure of the price actions from 1.5226 is affirming this view. Above 1.5226 will target a test on 1.6587 key resistance. However, break of 1.4421 support will dampen our view and would drag EUR/AUD lower to retest key support zone around 1.3624.

EUR/AUD stayed in consolidation from 1.6368 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and further rise expected as long as 1.6074 minor support holds. On the upside, break of 1.6368 will extend the rise from 1.5905 to 1.6680/6786 resistance zone next. On the downside, however, break of 1.6074 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.5894 key support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5894 support holds, outlook remains bullish. Firm break of 1.6786 will resume up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Next upside target is 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488. However, sustained break of 1.5894 will have 55 week EMA (now at 1.6038) firmly taken out too. That should indicate medium term topping and target 1.5346 key support next.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) is still in progress for 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.5894 remains intact. However, firm break of 1.5894 will be an early sign of major topping and turn focus to 1.5346 key support for confirmation.

EUR/AUD stayed in consolidative trading in range of 1.5984/6357 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias is neutral this week for more sideway trading. As long as 1.5984 support holds, further rise is still expected. On the upside, break of 1.6357 will resume larger up trend and target 1.6587 key resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 1.5984 will be an early sign of trend reversal and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3624 (2017 low) is still in progress. Further rise should be seen to retest 1.6587 (2015 high). Decisive break there will resume the long term rally and target 1.7488 fibonacci level. On the downside, break of 1.5984 support is need to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of deep pull back. However, sustained break of 1.5984 will be an early sign of trend reversal and turn focus to 1.5601 support for confirmation.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3624 key support should indicate long term reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5881; (P) 1.5924; (R1) 1.5956; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the downside for 1.5773 support and possibly below. Still, price actions from 1.6189 are seen as a consolidation pattern. Hence, downside should be contained above 1.5621 to bring rise resumption. On the upside, above 1.5966 support turned resistance will turn bias to the upside for 1.6139 and then 1.6189 high.

In the bigger picture, while there is bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, there is no clear sign of reversal yet. EUR/AUD also drew strong support from 55 day EMA and rebounded. Current rally from 1.3624 could still extend to 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). Nonetheless, we’d expect further loss of upside momentum, and strong resistance from 1.6587 to limit upside and bring reversal. On the downside, sustained break of 1.5621 support should confirm reversal and turn outlook bearish for 1.5153 support and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5996; (P) 1.6018; (R1) 1.6054; More….

EUR/AUD is staying in consolidation below 1.6189 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Further rally is expected as long as 1.5857 minor support holds. On the upside, break of 1.6189 will resume the whole rally from 1.5153 and target 1.6587 key resistance. Nonetheless, break of 1.5857 will be an early sign of trend reversal and turn bias to the downside for 1.5621 support to confirm.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rise from 1.3624 is not completed yet. And it’s still in progress for 1.6587 key resistance level. We’d be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. But for now, break of 1.5621 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stays bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6235; (P) 1.6267; (R1) 1.6299; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.6033 is still extending. Overall, as long as 1.6586 resistance holds, further decline is still expected. Break of 1.6033 will resume the down trend from 1.9799. Nevertheless, on the upside, break of 1.6585 resistance should turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) might have completed at 1.9799. Deeper fall could be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 1.5792). Sustained break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. This will remain the preferred case now as long as 1.6586 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6035; (P) 1.6059; (R1) 1.6093; More…

EUR/AUD is losing some downside momentum, but further fall is expected as long as 1.6143 minor resistance holds. Current development suggests that rebound from 1.5683 has completed at 1.6448. Further decline would be seen to retest 1.5683 next. On the upside, above 1.6143 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for rebound first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will still remain bullish. Up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal and turn outlook bearish.

EUR/AUD’s sharp decline last week argues that rebound from 1.4421 is already completed at 1.5019. And, the corrective pattern from 1.5226 is still unfolding. Initial bias is neutral this week first with a temporary low in place at 1.4732. Below 1.4732 will bring another fall. But we’d expect 1.4421 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.5226 at 1.4427) to hold and bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.5019 will target a test on 1.5226 high instead.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to extend to retest 1.6587. The corrective structure of the fall from 1.5226 is affirming this view. Above 1.5226 will target a test on 1.6587 key resistance. However, break of 1.4421 will dampen our view and would drag EUR/AUD lower to retest key support zone around 1.3624.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3671 should confirm trend reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

EUR/AUD edged lower to 1.5657 last week but quickly recovered. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Risk also stays on the downside with 1.5849 resistance intact. Consolidation pattern from 1.5250 might have completed just missing 38.2% retracement of 1.6827 to 1.5250 at 1.5852. Below 1.5657 will target 1.5418 support first. Sustained break there will solidify this bearish case and target a retest of 1.5250 low. However, on the upside, sustained break of 1.5852 will bring further rally back to 1.6033 support turned resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6033 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) could have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799. The development suggests that long term range trading is extending with another medium term down leg. Sustained trading below 55 month EMA (now at 1.5806) further affirms this case and could bring deeper decline to 1.1602/3624 support zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5456; (P) 1.5530; (R1) 1.5661; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is mildly on the upside at this point. Rebound from 1.5354 would target 55 day EMA (now at 1.5795). On the downside, break of 1.5354 will resume the fall from 1.6434 to retest 1.5250 low. Sustained break there will resume larger down trend from 1.9799.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) is in progress. Firm break of 1.5250 low will confirm resumption nand target 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 (2012 low) to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Sustained break there could bring more downside acceleration to 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623. In any case, break of 1.6434 resistance is needed to signal medium term bottoming, or outlook will stay bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4323; (P) 1.4385; (R1) 1.4433; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, below 1.4322 will target 1.4702 low first. Break of 1.4072 will extend the correction from 1.6587 towards next key support level 1.3671. Meanwhile, decisive break of 1.4880 resistance will indicate that such correction from 1.6587 is completed and turn near term outlook bullish for 1.5094 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a consolidative pattern. 50% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.6587 at 1.4095 was already met. While further fall cannot be ruled out, we’d expect strong support above 1.3671 to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.5094 will be the first sign of resumption of up trend from 1.1602 and target retesting of 1.6587 resistance first.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5959; (P) 1.5989; (R1) 1.6023; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for more sideway trading first. Further rise is expected as long as 1.5925 support holds. On the upside, break of 1.6182 will resume the rise from 1.5250 to 1.6827 resistance next. However, on the downside, firm break of 1.5925 will bring deeper fall back to 1.5614 structural support instead.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom was formed at 1.5250, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Rise from 1.5250 is currently seen as a correction to the down trend from 1.9799 first. Stronger rise would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988 next. We’d tentatively expect strong resistance from there to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Meanwhile, break of 1.5614 support will indicate that the rebound has completed and bring retest of 1.5250 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6075; (P) 1.6144; (R1) 1.6201; More…

EUR/AUD’s fall from 1.6593 is still in progress. With 1.6106 support broken, intraday bias stays on the downside for retesting 1.5962 low next. On the upside, above 1.6212 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for recovery instead.

In the bigger picture, EUR/AUD drew support from 55 week EMA and rebounded strongly again. The development indicates that up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is still in progress. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.5962 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5676; (P) 1.5715; (R1) 1.5755; More….

EUR/AUD is staying in consolidation from 1.5816 and intraday bias remains neutral. Also, with 1.5606 intact, near term outlook remains bullish. Break of 1.5816 should now confirm resumption of medium term rise from 1.3264. In that case, EUR/AUD should target 1.6587 key long term resistance. Meanwhile, firm break of 1.5606 will argue that a short term top is formed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.5494)

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 1.3624 is not completed yet. Sustained break of 1.5770 will extend the rise to retest 1.6587 (2015 high). However, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, break of 1.4949 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.5770 at 1.4950) will indicate medium term reversal. And there is prospect of retesting 1.3624 low in that bearish case.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6057; (P) 1.6157; (R1) 1.6236; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains mildly on the upside. Rebound from 1.6006 would extend to 1.6420 resistance. Firm break there will extend the consolidation from 1.6033 with another rising leg, back to 1.6827 resistance. On the downside, sustained break of 1.6033 low will resume whole down trend from 1.9799.

In the bigger picture, price action from 1.9799 are seen as developing into a corrective pattern. The question is whether it’s a sideway pattern or a deep correction. On the downside, sustained break of 1.6033 will suggest it’s the latter case and target 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 (2012 low) to 1.9799 at 1.4733. On the upside, break of 1.6827 resistance will favor the former case and bring stronger rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4846; (P) 1.4917; (R1) 1.4957; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the downside at this point. As noted before, rebound from 1.4561 could have completed at 1.5327, ahead of 1.5354 support turned resistance. Deeper fall would be seen back to retest 1.4561 low. However, break of 1.5085 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.5237, and possibly another take on 1.5354.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.9799 is seen as a long term impulsive move. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). Some support could be seen there to bring interim rebound. But overall, break of 1.5354 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6178; (P) 1.6232; (R1) 1.6261; More….

EUR/AUD is staying in range of 1.6145/6351 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise remains mildly in favor. On the upside, sustained break of 1.6353 will resume larger up trend and target 1.6587 key resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 1.6145 support will likely extend the corrective pattern from 1.6353 with another leg back to 1.5984.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3624 (2017 low) is still in progress. Further rise should be seen to retest 1.6587 (2015 high). Decisive break there will resume the long term rally and target 1.7488 fibonacci level. On the downside, break of 1.5984 support is need to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4641; (P) 1.4673; (R1) 1.4721; More…

Further decline is mildly in favor in EUR/AUD as long as 1.4754 minor resistance holds. Break of 38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.5226 at 1.4614 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.4236 and possibly below. Meanwhile, break of 1.4754 will indicate that the cross could have defended 1.4669 support. In that case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.5226 high.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction should be completed at 1.3624 after defending 1.3671 key support. Rise from 1.3642 would extend to 61.8% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.5455. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.6587. However, sustained break of 1.4669 support will dampen this bullish view. We’ll assess the outlook later after looking at the structure and depth of the pull back.