Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6403; (P) 1.6442; (R1) 1.6505; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.6516 resistance holds. On the downside, below 1.6368 will resume the fall from 1.6742 towards 1.6127 low. Nevertheless, break of 1.6516 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). The correction is probably still in progress with fall from 1.6742 as the third leg. Strong support is expected around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5600; (P) 1.5665; (R1) 1.5778; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the upside for 1.5770 resistance. Based on current strong upside momentum, the cross might be resuming medium term rise from 1.3264. Decisive break there will confirm this bullish case and target 1.6587 key long term resistance. On the downside, below 1.5622 minor support will dampen this bullish case and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 1.3624 is not completed yet. Break of 1.5770 will extend the rise to retest 1.6587 (2015 high). However, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, sustained break of 1.4949 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.5770 at 1.4950) will indicate medium term reversal. And there is prospect of retesting 1.3624 low in that bearish case.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5851; (P) 1.5947; (R1) 1.6099; More….

EUR/USD’s rally continues today and reaches as high as 1.6084 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside and, with 1.5984 support turned resistance broken, further rise should be seen to retest 1.6357 high next. At this point, we’d be cautious on topping around there to bring pull back. On the downside, break of 1.5887 resistance turned support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that 1.6357 is a medium term top. But the strong rebound ahead of 1.5271 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6357 at 1.5313) suggests price actions from 1.6357 are developing into sideway consolidation, rather than a deep correction. The range of 1.5271/6357 is likely set for the consolidation. And we don’t expect a break of the range any time soon. But decisive break of 1.6357 will resume the larger up trend from 1.3624 (2017 low) to 1.6587 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5998; (P) 1.6038; (R1) 1.6069; More….

EUR/AUD’s fall resumed after brief consolidation and intraday bias back on the downside. Current correction from 1.6765 might extend to 55 day EMA (now at 1.5931) and possibly below. On the upside, above 1.6085 minor resistance will argue that the pull back is completed and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.6765.

In the bigger picture, the failure to sustain above 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high), argues that up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low), is not ready to resume yet. But still, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will remain bullish. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6144; (P) 1.6210; (R1) 1.6252; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 1.6319 resistance will now indicate short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for 1.6478 resistance. Nevertheless, on the downside, below 1.6148 will resume recent decline for 100% projection of 1.7062 to 1.6319 from 1.6844 at 1.6106.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as correcting the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000. Strong support could be seen there to bring rebound on first attempt. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.6844 resistance holds. Sustained break of 1.6000 would bring further fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.5343.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4865; (P) 1.4916; (R1) 1.4968; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. Another fall is mildly in favor as long as 1.4994 minor resistance holds. Break of 1.4732 will confirm that fall from 1.5173 is the third leg of consolidation pattern from 1.5226. In that case, further fall should be seen to 1.4421 again. But we’d expect strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.4994 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.5173/5226 resistance zone instead.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to extend to retest 1.6587. The corrective structure of the price actions from 1.5226 is affirming this view. Above 1.5226 will target a test on 1.6587 key resistance. However, break of 1.4421 support will dampen our view and would drag EUR/AUD lower to retest key support zone around 1.3624.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4716; (P) 1.4801; (R1) 1.4872; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, below 1.4687 minor support will argue that rebound from 1.4318 has completed at 1.5053 already. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for retesting 1.4318 low. On the upside, break of 1.5053 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.6223 to 1.4318 at 1.5495.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.9799 is seen as a long term impulsive move. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). Some support could be seen there to bring interim rebound. But overall, break of 1.5354 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6455; (P) 1.6514; (R1) 1.6555; More…

EUR/AUD’s consolidation from 1.6671 is in progress and intraday bias stays neutral. Rise from 1.6127 is expected to continue as long as 1.6398 support holds. Corrective fall from 1.7062 should have completed with three waves down to 1.6127 already. Above 1.6671 will target 1.6844 resistance to confirm this bullish case.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Break of 1.6844 resistance will argue that this up trend is ready to resume through 1.7062 high. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound.

EUR/AUD’s pull back from 1.5226 extended lower last week and broke 38.2% retracement of 1.3980 to 1.5226 at 1.4750. It’s pressing 1.4669 support. At this point, we’re expecting strong support around 1.4669, near term 55 days EMA at 1.4685, to contain downside and bring rebound. Break of 1.4897 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.5226 high first. However, sustained break of 1.4669 will argue that rise from 1.3642 is completed and bring deeper pull back to 1.4309 resistance turned support.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction should be completed at 1.3624 after defending 1.3671 key support. Rise from 1.3642 would extend to 61.8% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.5455. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.6587. However, sustained break of 1.4669 support will dampen this bullish view. We’ll assess the outlook later after looking at the structure and depth of the pull back.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3671 should confirm trend reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6348; (P) 1.6389; (R1) 1.6431; More…

EUR/AUD is still bounded in consolidation from 1.6267 and intraday bias remains neutral. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.6515 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.6267 will resume the whole decline from 1.7062 to 100% projection of 1.7062 to 1.6319 from 1.6844 at 1.6106 next. However, break of 1.6515 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as correcting the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000. Strong support could be seen there to bring rebound on first attempt. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.6844 resistance holds. Sustained break of 1.6000 would bring further fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.5343.

EUR/AUD’s decline from 1.6593 resumed last week, through 1.6256 support to as low as 1.6085. As a temporary low was formed, initial bias is neutral this week first. But further fall is in favor as long as 1.6256 support turned resistance holds. Below 1.6085 will target a test on 1.5962 support. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.6256 will turn bias to the upside for 1.6448 resistance.

In the bigger picture, EUR/AUD is still struggling in established range of 1.5905/6786. And it’s trying to draw support from 55 week EMA (now at 1.6113) again. For now, larger up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is still in favor to continue as long as 1.5962 support holds. Break of 1.6503 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) is still in progress for 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.5962 remains intact. However, firm break of 1.5962 will be an early sign of major topping and turn focus to 1.5346 key support for confirmation.

EUR/AUD’s down trend extended to as low as 1.5591 last week but formed a temporary low there and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. Upside should be limited by 1.5830 resistance to bring another decline. Break of 1.5591 will target 161.8% projection of 1.6827 to 1.6144 from 1.6420 at 1.5315 next. Though, break of 1.5830 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.9799 is developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6827 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) could have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799. The development suggests that long term range trading is extending with another medium term down leg. Sustained trading below 55 month EMA (now at 1.5847) now further affirms this case could bring deeper decline to 1.1602/3624 support zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5569; (P) 1.5649; (R1) 1.5703; More…

Further decline is expected in EUR/AUD with 1.5830 resistance intact. Current down trend target 161.8% projection of 1.6827 to 1.6144 from 1.6420 at 1.5315 next. Though, break of 1.5830 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.9799 is developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6827 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6178; (P) 1.6204; (R1) 1.6238; More…

EUR/AUD’s consolidation from 1.6294 is extending with another fall. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Further rise is still expected as long as 1.5962 support holds. On the upside, break of 1.6314 will re-affirm medium term bullishness and target 1.6432 next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5894 support holds, outlook remains bullish. Firm break of 1.6786 will resume up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Next upside target is 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488. However, sustained break of 1.5894 will have 55 week EMA (now at 1.6082) firmly taken out too. That should indicate medium term topping and target 1.5346 key support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6232; (P) 1.6290; (R1) 1.6324; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral for the moment. Further decline is expected with 1.6354 minor resistance intact. Considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, fall from 1.6785 might be a correction to whole up trend from 1.4281. Break of 1.6134 will target 38.2 retracement of 1.4281 to 1.6785 at 1.5828, which is inside 1.5254/5976 support zone. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.6354 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.6785 high instead.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) should have completed at 1.4281 (2022 low). Further rise should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.7691 next. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.5976 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5351; (P) 1.5406; (R1) 1.5445; More…

EUR/AUD is still extending the consolidation from 1.5704 and intraday bias remains neutral. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 55 day EMA (now at 1.5301) to bring rebound. On the upside, decisive break of 1.5704 will resume larger rise from 1.4281. However, sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper correction towards 1.4965 resistance turned support.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.4281, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Further rise would be seen back to 1.6434 key resistance next. Break of 1.4965 resistance turned support is needed to indicate reversal. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5979; (P) 1.6007; (R1) 1.6041; More…

A temporary low is in place at 1.5945 and intraday bias in EUR/AUD is turned neutral first. Upside of recovery should be limited below 1.6231 resistance to bring another decline. Current fall from 1.6448 is seen as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.6765 high. Break of 1.5945 will target 1.5683 support and below.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will still remain bullish. Up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal and turn outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3974; (P) 1.4070; (R1) 1.4132; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. At this point, we’re still mildly favoring the case of trend reversal. And, another rise is expected as long as 1.3872 support holds. Above 1.4309 should send the cross through channel resistance (now at 1.4378) to 1.4721 key resistance. However, break of 1.3872 will dampen our bullish view and bring retest of 1.3642 low instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction could be completed after testing 1.3671 support. Break of 1.4721 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.4756) should confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement at 1.5455 and above. Overall, we’d expect the up trend from 1.1602 to resume later. However, sustained break of 1.3671 will invalidate our bullish view and would turn focus back to 1.1602 long term bottom.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5518; (P) 1.5554; (R1) 1.5604; More….

EUR/AUD recovered after breaching 1.5519 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the downside, sustained break of 1.5519 will resume the fall from 1.6357 and target 1.5271/5313 cluster support zone next. On the upside, above 1.5633 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and extend the consolidation from 1.5519 with another rise. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.6357 to 1.5519 at 1.5839 to bring fall resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that up trend from 1.3624 (2017 low) is possibly completed at 1.6357, ahead of 1.6587 (2015 high). This is supported by bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Deeper decline is now in favor to 1.5271 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6357 at 1.5313). Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.4668. On the upside, break of 1.5984 support turned resistance is now needed to revive the prior medium term up trend. Otherwise, further decline will be in favor even in case of strong interim rebound.

EUR/AUD was rejected by 1.6586 resistance last and dropped sharply since then. Though, it’s staying well above 1.6033 support. Initial bias remains neutral this week and some more consolidations could still be seen. On the downside, firm break of 1.6033 will confirm resumption of whole fall from 1.9799. Deeper fall would then be seen to long term EMA at 1.5774. On the upside, break of 1.6586 resistance is needed to indicate reversal, otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of another recovery.

In the bigger picture, whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) might have completed at 1.9799. Deeper fall could be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 1.5774). Sustained break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. This will remain the preferred case now as long as 1.6586 resistance holds.

In the longer term picture rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) could have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799. The development suggests that long term range trading is extending with another medium term down leg. Sustained trading below 55 month EMA (now at 1.5774) will further affirm this case and target 1.1602/3624 support zone.