Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5348; (P) 1.5395; (R1) 1.5439; More….

EUR/AUD recovers today and breaks of 1.5454 minor resistance suggests temporary bottoming at 1.5314. Intraday bias is turned neutral for consolidation. But upside of recovery should b limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.6139 to 1.5314 at 1.5269 to bring fall resumption. Below 1.5314 will resume the decline from 1.6189 and target 1.5153 key support level next.

In the bigger picture, rally from 1.3624 (2017 low) should have completed at 1.6189 already, ahead of 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). 1.6189 is seen as a medium term top. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6189 at 1.5209 first. Decisive break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.4604. In that case, we’ll look for bottoming again below 1.4604. On the upside, firm break of 1.5773 support turned resistance is needed to indicate completion of the fall from 1.6189. Otherwise, further decline is expected in medium term, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5660; (P) 1.5728; (R1) 1.5764; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral and outlook stays bearish with 1.5830 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 1.5591 will resume larger down trend for 161.8% projection of 1.6827 to 1.6144 from 1.6420 at 1.5315 next. However, break of 1.5830 will bring stronger rebound to falling channel resistance (now at 1.5942).

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.9799 is developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6827 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4281; (P) 1.4354; (R1) 1.4391; More…

EUR/AUD’s fall from 1.4721 resumed by taking out 1.4322. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 1.4072. Break there will extend the correction from 1.6587 towards next key support level 1.3671.On the upside, above 1.4467 minor resistance will turn bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a consolidative pattern. 50% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.6587 at 1.4095 was already met. While further fall cannot be ruled out, we’d expect strong support above 1.3671 to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.5094 will be the first sign of resumption of up trend from 1.1602 and target retesting of 1.6587 resistance first.

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EUR/AUD had another attempt on 1.6586 resistance last week but failed again. Initial bias remains neutral this week as more sideway range trading could be seen. On the upside, sustained break of 1.6586 will suggest that it’s at least in correction to the fall from 1.9799 to 1.6033. Further rise should then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.6033 at 1.7472. However, rejection by 1.6586 will maintain near term bearishness for another fall through 1.6033 later.

In the bigger picture, whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) might have completed at 1.9799. Deeper fall might be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 1.5816). Sustained break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. However, strong support from 55 week EMA (now at 1.6449) would neutralize the long term bearishness and argues that price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a sideway range pattern instead.

In the longer term picture rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) could have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799. The development suggests that long term range trading is extending with another medium term down leg. Sustained trading below 55 month EMA (now at 1.5816) will further affirm this case and target 1.1602/3624 support zone.

EUR/AUD’s fall from 1.6232 extended lower last week but stays above 1.5898 key support. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. As long as 1.5898 holds, larger rise from 1.5250 is still in favor to continue. Break of 1.6232 will turn bias to the upside for retesting 1.6434 high first. However, sustained break of 1.5898 will argue that rise from 1.5250 has completed, and turn near term outlook bearish for 1.5614 support first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.5250 medium term bottom is currently seen as a correction to the down trend from 1.9799 first. Stronger rise could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988 next. We’d tentatively expect strong resistance from there to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Meanwhile, break of 1.5898 support will indicate that the rebound has completed. Larger down trend from 1.9799 might be ready to resume through 1.5250 low.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) should have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799 (2020 high). Fall from there is seen as a medium term to long term down leg as a long term down trend, or a sideway pattern. We’ll assess the odds again at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6068; (P) 1.6193; (R1) 1.6351; More…

A temporary low is formed at 1.6033 after breaching 1.6085 support. Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is turned neutral first. Further decline is expected as long as 1.6772 resistance holds. Firm break of 1.6085 support will pave the way to next support level at 1.5346. Nevertheless, break of 1.6772 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, the firm break of 1.6597 key cluster support, (2015 high and 38.2% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.6668, 55 week EMA (now at 1.6553) suggests that whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) might have completed. Deeper fall would now be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.4733. This week remain the preferred case now as long as 1.7194 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5896; (P) 1.5966; (R1) 1.6008; More…

EUR/AUD’s fall resumed after brief consolidation and intraday bias is back on the downside. Current decline from 1.6448 is seen as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.6765 high. Deeper fall should be seen to 1.5683 support and below. On the upside, above 1.6034 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will still remain bullish. Up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal and turn outlook bearish.

EUR/AUD drew support from 55 weekly EMA and recovered strongly last week. However, such recovery from 1.5894 is currently seen as a corrective move. Hence, while stronger rise cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited below 1.6231 resistance to bring fall resumption. Decline from 1.6448 is seen as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.6765 high. Break of 1.5894 will target 1.5683 support and below. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.6231 will dampen this view and target 1.6448 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, medium term outlook will still remain bullish. Up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal and turn outlook bearish.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) is still in progress for 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.5346 remains intact.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5919; (P) 1.5968; (R1) 1.6010; More….

EUR/AUD breached 1.6038 resistance but failed to sustain above yet. Intraday bias stays neutral first. On the upside, decisive break of 1.6038 will confirm completion of fall from 1.6765 at 1.5721. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.6765. On the downside, break of 1.5721 will extend the decline to 1.5346 support instead.

In the bigger picture, the failure to sustain above 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high) argues that up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is not ready to resume yet. But still, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will remain bullish. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5760; (P) 1.5804; (R1) 1.5850; More…

EUR/AUD’s break of 1.5776 support argues that rise from 1.5559 has completed at 1.6223. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.5559 support first. Break there will also indicate that corrective rise from 1.5354 has completed in form of a three wave pattern. Deeper fall would then be seen back to 1.5250/5354 support zone. On the upside, above 1.6002 minor resistance will bring retest of 1.6223 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.5354 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.5250 low. Further rise cannot be ruled out, but even in that case, strong resistance should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988. Larger down trend from 1.9799 is in favor to extend through 1.5250 at a later stage.

EUR/AUD’s rise from 1.5996 extended through 1.6742 resistance last week despite interim pullback. The development strengthens the case that corrective fall from 1.7062 has completed with three waves down to 1.5998. Initial bias is on the upside this week for retesting 1.7062 high. On the downside, break of 1.6474 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) and could have completed after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000. On resumption next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.7062 from 1.5996 at 1.7715. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.6474 support holds.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.9799 (2020 high) are seen as a long term decline at the same scale as the rise from 1.1602 (2012 low). Rebound from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg. As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.5987) holds, this second leg could still extend higher. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will open up the bearish case for extending the decline through 1.4281 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5498; (P) 1.5535; (R1) 1.5582; More….

EUR/AUD’s recovery and break of 1.5593 minor resistance suggests temporary bottoming at 1.5487. Intraday bias is turned neutral for consolidations first. Upside of rebound should be limited well below 1.5773 support turned resistance to bring another fall. As noted before, prior break of 1.5621 support is taken as an indication of medium term reversal. Below 1.5487 will target 1.5153 key support next.

In the bigger picture, rally from 1.3624 (2017 low) should have completed at 1.6189 already, ahead of 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). 1.6189 is seen as a medium term top. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6189 at 1.5209 first. Decisive break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.4604. In that case, we’ll look for bottoming again below 1.4604. On the upside, break of 55 day EMA (now at 1.5849) is needed to indicate completion of the fall from 1.6189. Otherwise, further fall is expected in medium term, even in case of strong rebound.

EUR/AUD rebounded to 1.6139 last week but failed to break through 1.6189 resistance and reversed. Initial bias remains mildly on the downside this week for 1.5773 support, and possibly below. But for the moment, we’re viewing price actions from 1.6189 as developing into a consolidation pattern. Hence, downside should be contained above 1.5621 support to bring another rally. On the upside, above 1.6139 will target 1.6189 high again.

In the bigger picture, while there is bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, there is no clear sign of reversal yet. EUR/AUD also drew strong support from 55 day EMA and rebounded. Current rally from 1.3624 could still extend to 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). Nonetheless, we’d expect further loss of upside momentum, and strong resistance from 1.6587 to limit upside and bring reversal. On the downside, sustained break of 1.5621 support should confirm reversal and turn outlook bearish for 1.5153 support and below.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3671 should indicate long term reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4149; (P) 1.4249; (R1) 1.4318; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the downside for 1.4072 low. Break there will extend the correction from 1.6587 towards next key support level 1.3671.On the upside, above 1.4322s support turned resistance will turn bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a consolidative pattern. 50% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.6587 at 1.4095 was already met. While further fall cannot be ruled out, we’d expect strong support above 1.3671 to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.5094 will be the first sign of resumption of up trend from 1.1602 and target retesting of 1.6587 resistance first.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6273; (P) 1.6318; (R1) 1.6380; More…

Range trading continues in EUR/AUD above 1.6033 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, decisive break of 1.6033 will resume the down trend from 1.9799. Nevertheless, on the upside, break of 1.6585 resistance should turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) might have completed at 1.9799. Deeper fall could be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 1.5792). Sustained break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. This will remain the preferred case now as long as 1.6586 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5482; (P) 1.5541; (R1) 1.5639; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral for the moment. Consolidation from 1.5250 could extend further. Break of 1.5672 will bring stronger rebound. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.6827 to 1.5250 at 1.5852. On the downside, below 1.5423 should bring retest of 1.5250 low. Overall, down trend from 1.9799 is expected to resume after consolidation from 1.5250 completes.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6033 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4862; (P) 1.4975; (R1) 1.5085; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 1.4759 support will suggest that rebound from 1.4318 has completed. Intraday bias will be turn back to the downside for retesting 1.4318 low. On the upside, above 1.5187 will target 1.5277 resistance and than 1.5354 support turned resistance next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5354 support turned resistance holds, larger down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) is still expected to continue. On resumption, next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). However, firm break of 1.5354 will indicate medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 1.6434 key resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5642; (P) 1.5763; (R1) 1.5984; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the upside for the moment. Current rally from 1.4281 should target 61.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.5704 from 1.5271 at 1.6150. On the downside, below 1.5683 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.5441 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5271 support holds, rise from 1.4281 medium term bottom is expected to continue to 1.6434 key resistance next. However, firm break of 1.5271 will argue that such rebound has completed, and keep medium term outlook neutral at best. But in this case, more range trading should be seen above 1.4281 low first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6516; (P) 1.6548; (R1) 1.6602; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. Rise from 1.596 is still in favor to continue with 1.6474 support intact. On the upside, break of 1.6745 resistance will suggest that pullback from 1.7180 has completed, and retain near term bullishness. Further rise should then be seen back to retest 1.7180 high. However, decisive break of 1.6474 will argue that rise from 1.5996 has completed, and dampen the larger bullish view.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 1.7062 medium term top should have completed at 1.5996. Larger up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is resuming. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.7062 from 1.5996 at 1.7715. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.6474 support holds. However, decisive break of 1.6474 will argue that EUR/AUD is still engaging in medium term range trading.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5153; (P) 1.5217; (R1) 1.5265; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral at this point. On the upside, sustained break of 1.5354 support turned resistance will indicate medium term bottoming at 1.4318. Stronger rally would be seen back to 100% projection of 1.4318 to 1.5277 from 1.4759 at 1.5718. On the downside, however, break of 1.5083 minor support will retain medium term bearishness, and turn bias back to the downside for 1.4759 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5354 support turned resistance holds, larger down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) is still expected to continue. On resumption, next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). However, firm break of 1.5354 will indicate medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 1.6434 key resistance.