Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5769; (P) 1.5814; (R1) 1.5861; More….

EUR/AUD’s breach of 1.5887 resistance indicates resumption of rise from 1.5346. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.5984 support turned resistance first. Break will pave the way to retest 1.6357 high next. On the downside, break of 1.5086 minor support will delay the bullish case and extend the consolidation from 1.5887 with another fall.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that 1.6357 is a medium term top. But the strong rebound ahead of 1.5271 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6357 at 1.5313) suggests price actions from 1.6357 are developing into sideway consolidation, rather than a deep correction. The range of 1.5271/6357 is likely set for the consolidation. And we don’t expect a break of the range any time soon. But decisive break of 1.6357 will resume the larger up trend from 1.3624 (2017 low) to 1.6587 (2015 high).

EUR/AUD retreated after edging higher to 1.5053 last week. But downside is contained by 1.4687 so far. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, and further rise is mildly in favor. On the upside, break of 1.5053 will resume the rebound from 1.4318 to target 61.8% retracement of 1.6223 to 1.4318 at 1.5495. However, firm break of 1.4687 will argue that the rebound has completed and bring retest of 1.4318 low.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5354 support turned resistance holds, larger down trend form 1.9799 (2020 high) is still expected to continue. On resumption, next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). However, firm break of 1.5354 will indicate medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally.

In the longer term picture, fall from 1.9799 (2020 high) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Deeper fall should be seen to 1.3624 support. Decisive break there would pave the way back to 1.1602 (2012 low).

EUR/AUD gyrated higher last week but continued to lose up side moment as see in 4 hour MACD. Further rally is expected as long as 1.6053 support holds. Focus is now on 1.6389/6434 cluster resistance zone. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, break of 1.6053 will indicate short term topping and turn bias back to the downside for 1.5848 support and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.6389/6434 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.6389). Sustained break there should confirm that whole down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) has completed. Further rally should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.7691. However, rejection by this cluster resistance will make medium term outlook neutral at best.

In the longer term picture, the strong break above 55 month EMA (now at 1.5616) raised the chance of bullish trend reversal. Firm break of 1.6434 resistance should confirm that the down trend from 1.9799 has completed. It’s still early to decide if the up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is resuming. An assessment will be made after rise from 1.4281 reveals more of its structure.

EUR/AUD’s decline accelerated to as low as 1.5652 last week. Downside acceleration raised the chance of medium term reversal. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 1.5621 key support next. On the upside, break of 1.5774 support turned resistance is needed to be first sign of short term bottoming. Otherwise, deeper will still be in favor in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, even if rise from 1.3624 (2017 low) extends, upside should b limited by 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high) to bring reversal. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.5621 support should confirm reversal and turn outlook bearish for 1.5153 support and below.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3671 should indicate long term reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

EUR/AUD’s rebound from 1.5354 resumed last week and accelerated to as high as 1.5906. The development suggests that whole decline from 1.6434 has completed at 1.5354 already. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 161.8% projection of 1.5354 to 1.5743 from 1.5446 at 1.6075 next. On the downside, break of 1.5743 resistance turned support will mix up the near term outlook and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, the strong rebound from 1.5354 invalidates the case of imminent downside breakout, and turn medium term outlook neutral again. Such rise is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.5250. Further rally could be seen through 1.6434 resistance. On the downside, however, break of 1.5446 support will turn focus back to 1.5250 low.

In the longer term picture, fall from 1.9799 (2020 high) is seen as a long term down trend. Further decline will remain in favor as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988 holds. Break of 1.5250 will target 61.8 retracement of 1.1602 (2012 low) to 1.9799 at 1.4733

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6130; (P) 1.6180; (R1) 1.6240; More….

EUR/AUD’s rally resumed after brief consolidate. Despite diminishing upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD, there is no sign of topping yet. Intraday bias is now on the upside for retesting 1.6357 high. At this point, we’d be cautious on topping around there to bring pull back. On the downside, break of 1.6024 support will now indicate short term topping and bring lengthier consolidation.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that 1.6357 is a medium term top. But the strong rebound ahead of 1.5271 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6357 at 1.5313) suggests price actions from 1.6357 are developing into sideway consolidation, rather than a deep correction. The range of 1.5271/6357 is likely set for the consolidation. And we don’t expect a break of the range any time soon. But decisive break of 1.6357 will resume the larger up trend from 1.3624 (2017 low) to 1.6587 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5670; (P) 1.5743; (R1) 1.5790; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is turned neutral first as it retreated after hitting 1.5813. Outlook is unchanged that corrective fall form 1.5976 has completed at 1.5254. Further rally is expected as long as 1.5605 support holds. Above 1.5813 will resume the rebound from 1.5254 to retest 1.5976 high.

In the bigger picture, it’s still early to confirm if rise from 1.4281 represents bullish trend reversal. But as long as 1.5271 support holds, such rally is in favor to continue. Break of 1.5976 will target 1.6434 key resistance next. On the other hand, firm break of 1.5271 will retain medium term bearishness instead.

EUR/AUD rebounded notably last week but lost momentum after hitting 1.4738. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, with bearish outlook. On the downside, decisive break of 1.4318 low will resume larger down trend to medium term projection level at 1.3623. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.4804 resistance will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger rise back to 1.5396 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.9799 is still in progress. Break of 1.4318 low will target 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.5396 resistance holds.

In the longer term picture, fall from 1.9799 (2020 high) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Deeper fall should be seen to 1.3624 support. Decisive break there would pave the way back to 1.1602 (2012 low). This will remain the favored case as long as 55 month EMA (now at 1.5656) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6760; (P) 1.6808; (R1) 1.6903; More…

EUR/AUD’s rally resumed by breaking through 1.6858 and intraday bias is back on the upside. Current rise from 1.4281 should target 1.7377 projection level next. On the downside, below 1.6708 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations again first.

In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.4281 (2022 low) is in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.5254 to 1.6785 from 1.5846 at 1.7377. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.5846 support holds, even in case of another pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6243; (P) 1.6283; (R1) 1.6340; More….

EUR/AUD’s rally is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Next target is 161.8% projection of 1.5271 to 1.5886 from 1.5601 at 1.6596, which is close to another key resistance level at 1.6587. On the downside, below 1.6223 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation first, before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3624 (2017 low) has just resumed. Further rise should be seen to retest 1.6587 (2015 high). Decisive break there will resume the long term rally and target 1.7488 fibonacci level. On the downside, break of 1.5601 support is need to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of deep pull back.

EUR/AUD’s fall from 1.6844 extended lower last week and the development argues that rebound from 1.6449 has completed already. Further decline is now expected this week as long as 1.6694 resistance holds. Firm break of 1.6449 support will argue that the pattern from 1.6319 has completed at 1.6844 as a corrective move, and fall from 1.7062 is ready to resume through 1.6319. On the upside, above 1.6694 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, while 1.7062 is a medium term top, there is no clear sign of trend reversal as EUR/AUD continues to draw strong support from the medium term trend line. Break of 1.7062 will resume the larger up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) to 1.7691 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, break of 1.6449 support will argue that deeper correction is underway to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000.

In the longer term picture, loss of upside momentum as seen in 55 W MACD at this stage argues that rise from 1.4281 (2022 low) is more likely a corrective move. Further rise could still be seen as long as 1.5846 support holds. But upside will likely be limited by 61.8% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.7691. Firm break of 1.5846 support will argue that the rise has completed, and another medium term down leg has started.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6054; (P) 1.6111; (R1) 1.6151; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains mildly on the upside. Rebound from 1.5905 short term bottom would extend to 1.6308 support turned resistance first. Firm break there should confirm completion of whole fall from 1.6789 and target this resistance again. For now, in case of another decline, we’d continue to expect strong support from 1.5894 to contain downside to bring rebound. However, sustained break will carry larger bearish implications and target 1.5683 support next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5894 support holds, outlook remains bullish. Firm break of 1.6786 will resume up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Next upside target is 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488. However, sustained break of 1.5894 will have 55 week EMA (now at 1.6008) firmly taken out too. That should indicate medium term topping and target 1.5346 key support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.8284; (P) 1.8518; (R1) 1.8664; More…

EUR/AUD is staying in consolidation from 1.9799 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Deeper pull back could be seen but downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 1.6085 to 1.9799 at 1.7504 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.9799 will resume larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is in progress and further rally would be seen to 2.1127 (2008 high) and possibly to 161.8% projection of 1.1602 to 1.6597 from 1.3524 at 2.1706. On the downside, for now, touching of 1.6597 resistance turned support (2015 high), is needed to indicate medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

EUR/AUD’s up trend continued last week and hit as high as 1.7062. Further rally is expected this week, as part of the whole up trend from 1.4281. Next target is 1.7377 projection level. On the downside, break 1.6737 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.4281 (2022 low) is in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.5254 to 1.6785 from 1.5846 at 1.7377. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.5846 support holds, even in case of another pull back.

In the longer term picture, it’s still early to decide if rise from 1.4281 is resuming whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). But in either case, further rally is in favor as long as 1.5846 support holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.7691.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5961; (P) 1.6053; (R1) 1.6177; More…

EUR/AUD’s break of 1.6101 resistance suggests that corrective fall from 1.6785 has completed with three waves down to 1.5846. That came after hitting 100% projection of 1.6785 to 1.6134 from 1.6513 at 1.5862. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.6513 resistance next. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 1.5846 holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6785 are seen as a correction to up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) only. Strong support should be seen around 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.6785 at 1.5828 to complete the first leg and bring rebound. However, sustained trading below 1.5828 will raise the chance of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.5238.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6153; (P) 1.6184; (R1) 1.6210; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is back on the downside with breach of 1.6148 temporary low. Current fall from 1.6844 should target 100% projection of 1.7062 to 1.6319 from 1.6844 at 1.6106. Meanwhile, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.6265 resistance should indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for 1.6478 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as correcting the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000. Strong support could be seen there to bring rebound on first attempt. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.6844 resistance holds. Sustained break of 1.6000 would bring further fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.5343.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5880; (P) 1.5917; (R1) 1.5955; More….

At this point, intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral. We’d expect upside of recovery to be limited below 1.6055 minor resistance to bring another fall. Break of 1.5773 will target 1.5621 support first. Decisive break there will be another indication of medium term trend reversal. However, break of 1.6059 will turn focus back to 1.6189 high instead.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal is building up in EUR/AUD. Bearish divergence condition in daily MACD indicates further loss of upside momentum ahead of 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). Break of 1.5621 should confirm medium term topping and bring deeper fall back to 1.5153 and possibly below. Meanwhile, even in case of up trend resumption, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.6587 to limit upside and bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5876; (P) 1.5932; (R1) 1.5962; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Further rally will remain in favor as long as 1.5776 support holds. Above 1.6223 will resume whole rise from 1.5354 to 1.6434 resistance first. However, break of 1.5776 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.5559 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.5354 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.5250 low. Further rise cannot be ruled out, but even in that case, strong resistance should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988. Larger down trend from 1.9799 is in favor to extend through 1.5250 at a later stage.

EUR/AUD’s rebound from 1.6319 resumed last week, and the development suggests that corrective fall from 1.7062 has completed, after drawing support from medium term trend line. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for retesting 1.7062 high. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 1.6442 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the strong support from medium term rising trend line indicates that rise from 1.4281 (2022 low) is still in progress. On resumption, next target is 100% projection of 1.5846 to 1.7062 from 1.6319 at 1.7353. In any case, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.6319 support holds.

In the longer term picture, loss of upside momentum as seen in 55 W MACD at this stage argues that rise from 1.4281 (2022 low) is more likely a corrective move. Further rise could still be seen as long as 1.5846 support holds. But upside will likely be limited by 61.8% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.7691. Firm break of 1.5846 support will argue that the rise has completed, and another medium term down leg has started.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6218; (P) 1.6332; (R1) 1.6399; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Decisive break of 1.6434 resistance will carry larger bullish implications. Nevertheless, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.6216 should confirm short term topping, after rejection by 1.6389/6434 cluster resistance zone. Intraday bias will be back on the downside in this case, to 1.6033 support and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.6389/6434 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.6389). Sustained break there should confirm that whole down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) has completed. Further rally should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.7691. However, rejection by this cluster resistance will make medium term outlook neutral at best.