Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5637; (P) 1.5683; (R1) 1.5758; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is turned neutral as it recovered after hitting 1.5559. Some sideway trading could be seen but further fall is expected as long as 1.5898 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.5559 will resume the fall from 1.6168 to retest 1.5354 low. However, break of 1.5898 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.6168 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook remains neutral for the moment. Rise from 1.5354 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.5250 low. Further rise cannot be ruled out, but even in that case, strong resistance should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988. Larger down trend from 1.9799 is in favor to extend through 1.5250 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4992; (P) 1.5099; (R1) 1.5303; More…

EUR/AUD’s rebound from 1.4138 resumed by breaking through 1.5053 resistance. Intraday bias is back on the upside with focus on 1.5354 cluster resistance (100% projection of 1.4318 to 1.5053 from 1.4597 at 1.5332. Rejection by this level will maintain medium term bearishness for another fall through 1.4138 low at a later stage. But firm break of 1.5332/54 will argue that the larger trend is reversing. Next target is 161.8% projection at 1.5786 first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5354 support turned resistance holds, larger down trend form 1.9799 (2020 high) is still expected to continue. On resumption, next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). However, firm break of 1.5354 will indicate medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 1.6434 key resistance.

EUR/AUD rebounded to as high as 1.6420 last week but retreated. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Current development suggest short term bottoming at 1.6122. Consolidation pattern from 1.6033 could have started another rising leg. Break of 1.6420 will turn bias to the upside for 1.6827 resistance. Nevertheless, on the downside, break of 1.6122 will bring retest of 1.6033 low.

In the bigger picture, price action from 1.9799 are seen as developing into a corrective pattern. The question is whether it’s a sideway pattern or a deep correction. On the downside, sustained break of 1.6033 will suggest it’s the latter case and target 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 (2012 low) to 1.9799 at 1.4733. On the upside, break of 1.6827 resistance will favor the former case and bring stronger rebound.

In the longer term picture rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) could have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799. The development suggests that long term range trading is extending with another medium term down leg. Sustained trading below 55 month EMA (now at 1.5855) will further affirm this case and target 1.1602/3624 support zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4839; (P) 1.4945; (R1) 1.5098; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.4561. Stronger recovery cannot be ruled out But upside upside should be limited well below 1.5354 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 1.4561 will target 161.8% projection of 1.6343 to 1.5354 from 1.6223 at 1.4476. Sustained break there will pave the way to 1.3624 long term target zone.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.9799 is seen as a long term impulsive move. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). Some support could be seen there to bring interim rebound. But overall, break of 1.5354 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6558; (P) 1.6600; (R1) 1.6649; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. With 1.6650 resistance intact, fall from 1.7062 is still expected to continue. Below 1.6446 minor support will bring retest of 1.6319 first. Break there will resume the decline to 1.6000 fibonacci level. On the upside, firm break of 1.6650 resistance will argue that pull back from 1.7062 has completed, after drawing support from medium term rising trend line. Further rally would be seen back to retest 1.7062.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 is probably correcting whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000. Strong support could be seen there to bring rebound, at least on first attempt. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.6650 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6295; (P) 1.6392; (R1) 1.6446; More…

EUR/AUD falls sharply after rejection by 55 4H EMA, but stays above 1.6267 low. Intraday bias remains neutral first and outlook remains bearish. On the downside, break of 1.6267 will resume larger decline from 1.7062 to 100% projection of 1.7062 to 1.6319 from 1.6844 at 1.6106 next. However, break of 1.6515 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, the break of medium term trend line support now suggests fall from 1.7062 correcting the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000. Strong support could be seen there to bring rebound on first attempt. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.6844 resistance holds. Sustained break of 1.6000 would bring further fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.5343.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6221; (P) 1.6253; (R1) 1.6280; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidation below 1.6353 short term top. Deeper pull back could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.5601 to 1.6353 at 1.6066. But downside should be contained well above 1.5886 cluster support (61.8% retracement at 1.5888) to bring rise resumption. On the upside, break of 1.6353 will resume larger up trend to 1.6587 key resistance level.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3624 (2017 low) is still in progress. Further rise should be seen to retest 1.6587 (2015 high). Decisive break there will resume the long term rally and target 1.7488 fibonacci level. On the downside, break of 1.5601 support is need to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6124; (P) 1.6226; (R1) 1.6383; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral and consolidation from 1.6033 is still extending. Outlook stays bearish with 1.6772 resistance intact, and further fall is expected. On the downside, break of 1.6033 will extend the fall from 1.9799 to next support level at 1.5346. However, break of 1.6772 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias to the upside for rebound.

In the bigger picture, the firm break of 1.6597 key cluster support, (2015 high and 38.2% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.6668, 55 week EMA (now at 1.6553) suggests that whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) might have completed. Deeper fall would now be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.4733. This week remain the preferred case now as long as 1.7194 resistance holds.

EUR/AUD’s break of 1.5776 support last week argues that rise from 1.5559 has completed at 1.6223 already. Initial bias is now on the downside for 1.5559 support first. Break there will also indicate that corrective rise from 1.5354 has completed in form of a three wave pattern. Deeper fall would then be seen back to 1.5250/5354 support zone. On the upside, above 1.6002 minor resistance will bring retest of 1.6223 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.5354 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.5250 low. Further rise cannot be ruled out, but even in that case, strong resistance should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988. Larger down trend from 1.9799 is in favor to extend through 1.5250 at a later stage.

In the longer term picture, fall from 1.9799 (2020 high) is seen as a long term down trend. Further decline will remain in favor as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988 holds. Break of 1.5250 will target 61.8 retracement of 1.1602 (2012 low) to 1.9799 at 1.4733

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5763; (P) 1.5824; (R1) 1.5932; More…

EUR/AUD accelerates to as high as 1.5963 so far. Intraday bias stays on the upside for retesting 1.5976 high. Decisive break there will resume whole rally from 1.4281. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.5976 from 1.5254 at 1.6302. On the downside, below 1.5826 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, the strong support from 55 week EMA (now at 1.5396) is raising the chance of bullish trend reversal. On break of 1.5976, focus will be on 1.6434 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.6389). Sustained break there should confirm that whole down trend form 1.9799 (2020 high) has completed. However, rejection by this cluster resistance will make medium term outlook neutral at best.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5290; (P) 1.5349; (R1) 1.5431; More…

Immediate focus is now on 1.5425 minor resistance. Firm break there should confirm short term bottoming at 1.5254, after defending 1.5271 key support. Intraday bias will then be turned back to the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.5509) and above. On the downside, decisive break of 1.5271 will carry larger bearish implication and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.5976 at 1.4928.

In the bigger picture, it’s still early to confirm if rise from 1.4281 represents bullish trend reversal. But as long as 1.5271 support holds, such rally is in favor to continue. Break of 1.5976 will target 1.6434 key resistance next. On the other hand, firm break of 1.5271 will retain medium term bearishness instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6266; (P) 1.6315; (R1) 1.6352; More…

EUR/AUD’s break of 1.6363 temporary top suggests resumption of recent rally from 1.5683. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 61.8% projection of 1.5683 to 1.6262 from 1.6052 at 1.6410 first. Break will target 100% projection at 1.6631 next. On the downside, break of 1.6298 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations again. But downside should be contained well above 1.6052 support to bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will still remain bullish. Up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6130; (P) 1.6243; (R1) 1.6319; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/UAD remains neutral first. Outlook stays bearish with 1.6772 resistance intact, and further fall is expected. On the downside, break of 1.6033 will extend the fall from 1.9799 to next support level at 1.5346.

In the bigger picture, the firm break of 1.6597 key cluster support, (2015 high and 38.2% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.6668, 55 week EMA (now at 1.6553) suggests that whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) might have completed. Deeper fall would now be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.4733. This week remain the preferred case now as long as 1.7194 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5770; (P) 1.5810; (R1) 1.5854; More….

EUR/AUD is staying in range below 1.5886 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise is expected with 1.5696 minor support intact. On the upside, break of 1.5886 will resume the rebound from 1.5271 and target 1.6189 high. However, as the rebound from 1.5271 is not clearly impulsive yet and momentum isn’t too convincing. Break of 1.5695 minor support could be an early sign of near term topping. In such case, bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.5425 support.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 1.6189 is a corrective move and has completed at 1.5217 already. Key support levels of 1.5153 and 38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6189 at 1.5209 were defended. And medium term rise from 1.3624 (2017 low) is still in progress. Break of 1.6189 will target 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6046; (P) 1.6078; (R1) 1.6129; More…

No change in EUR/AUD’s outlook as recovery from 1.5894 is in progress. But such recovery is seen as a corrective and thus, upside should be limited below 1.6231 resistance to bring fall resumption. Decline from 1.6448 is seen as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.6765 high. Break of 1.5894 will target 1.5683 support and below. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.6231 will dampen this view and target 1.6448 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, medium term outlook will still remain bullish. Up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal and turn outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5613; (P) 1.5668; (R1) 1.5759; More….

The break of 1.5693 minor resistance suggests that a short term bottom is formed at 1.5519 in AUD/USD, in bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside for rebound to 38.2% retracement of 1.6357 to 1.5519 at 1.5839 and possibly above. But upside should be limited well below 1.5984 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 1.5643 minor support will bring retest of 1.5519 low.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that up trend from 1.3624 (2017 low) is possibly completed at 1.6357, ahead of 1.6587 (2015 high). This is supported by bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Deeper decline is now in favor to 1.5271 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6357 at 1.5313). Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.4668. On the upside, break of 1.5984 support turned resistance is now needed to revive the prior medium term up trend. Otherwise, further decline will be in favor even in case of strong interim rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5865; (P) 1.5914; (R1) 1.5947; More….

No change in EUR/AUD’s outlook. Intraday bias stays neutral first. In case of another rise, we’d expect upside of recovery to be limited below 1.6055 minor resistance to bring another fall. Break of 1.5773 will target 1.5621 support first. Decisive break there will be another indication of medium term trend reversal. However, break of 1.6059 will turn focus back to 1.6189 high instead.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal is building up in EUR/AUD. Bearish divergence condition in daily MACD indicates further loss of upside momentum ahead of 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). Break of 1.5621 should confirm medium term topping and bring deeper fall back to 1.5153 and possibly below. Meanwhile, even in case of up trend resumption, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.6587 to limit upside and bring reversal.

EUR/AUD edged higher to 1.5725 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, though, below 1.5578 will resume the fall from 1.5888 to 61.8% retracement of 1.5271 to 1.5888 at 1.5507. Firm break there will pave the way to retest 1.5271 low. On the upside, above 1.5725 will extend the rebound form 1.5578 to retest 1.5888 high.

In the bigger picture, the rebound from 1.5271 was somewhat weaker than expected. EUR/AUD also failed to sustain above 55 day EMA and hints on some underlying bearishness. Though, for now, as long as 1.5271 support holds, medium term rise from 1.3624 (2017 low) is still mildly in favor to extend through 1.6189 high, to 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). Nevertheless, firm break of 1.5271 will complete a head and shoulder top pattern (ls: 1.5770, h: 1.6189, rs: 1.5888). That would indicate medium term reversal and turn outlook bearish.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3624 key support should indicate long term reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5337; (P) 1.5457; (R1) 1.5519; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the downside at this point. Current down trend from 1.9799 should target 100% projection of 1.6409 to 1.5591 from 1.5945 at 1.5127 next. On the upside, above 1.5504 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6033 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5882; (P) 1.5936; (R1) 1.6025; More….

EUR/AUD’s recovers again but stays in range of 1.5773/6059. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Another fall is in favor as long as 1.6059 holds. Break of 1.5773 will target 1.5621 support first. Decisive break there will be another indication of medium term trend reversal. However, break of 1.6059 will turn bias back to the upside and target a test on 1.6189 high instead.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal is building up in EUR/AUD. Bearish divergence condition in daily MACD indicates further loss of upside momentum ahead of 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). Break of 1.5621 should confirm medium term topping and bring deeper fall back to 1.5153 and possibly below. Meanwhile, even in case of up trend resumption, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.6587 to limit upside and bring reversal.