EUR/AUD stayed in consolidation below 1.5976 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first but further rise is expected with 1.5614 support intact. On the upside, break of 1.5976 will resume the rise from 1.5250 to 1.6033 key support turned resistance next. Sustained break there will argue that longer term trend has reversed, and target 1.6827 resistance.

In the bigger picture, outlook stays bearish with 1.6033 support turned resistance intact for now. Fall from 1.9799, as a correction to to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is still in favor to resume through 1.5250 later. However, firm break of 1.6033 will argue that such decline has completed. Stronger rebound would then be seen 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) should have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799 (2020 high). Fall from there is seen as a medium term to long term down leg as a long term down trend, or a sideway pattern. We’ll assess the odds again at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5475; (P) 1.5551; (R1) 1.5680; More….

EUR/AUD’s rebound from 1.5346 accelerates higher today and focus is back on 1.5781 resistance. Decisive break there will suggest that corrective fall from 1.6357 has completed earlier than expected. Near term outlook will be turned bullish for retesting 1.6357 high. On the downside, below 1.5556 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.5346 and then 1.5271/5313 cluster support zone.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that up trend from 1.3624 (2017 low) is possibly completed at 1.6357, ahead of 1.6587 (2015 high). Fall from 1.6357 should be corrective such up trend and would target 1.5271 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6357 at 1.5313). Break will extend the correction to Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.4668. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.5781 will suggest that the pull back has already completed. And larger uptrend from 1.3624 might be ready to resume.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5447; (P) 1.5552; (R1) 1.5616; More…

EUR/AUD’s break of 1.5526 suggests that rebound from 1.5268 has completed at 1.5672 already. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.5355 support first, and then retesting 1.5250 low. On the upside, above 1.5672 will bring another rebound. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.6827 to 1.5250 at 1.5852 to bring larger down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6033 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5964; (P) 1.6045; (R1) 1.6157; More….

At this point, further rise is still expected in EUR/AUD with 1.5941 minor support. Pull back from 1.6765 should have completed. Further rally should be seen back to retest 1.6765. However, break of 1.5941 will dampen this bullish view and turn bias back to the downside for 1.5721 support.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will remain bullish. Uptrend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3691; (P) 1.3752; (R1) 1.3785; More…

EUR/AUD’s decline resumed by taking out 1.3722 and intraday bias is back on the downside. Bullish convergence condition is seen in 4 hour MACD. Also, price actions from 1.6587 are seen as a corrective move. Hence, we’d expect strong support from 1.3671 key level to contain downside and bring rebound. Break of 1.3900 resistance will indicate near term reversal and turn bias back to the upside for 1.4025 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. We’d expect strong support from 1.3671 key level to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.4721 resistance will indicate completion of such correction and turn outlook bullish for retesting 1.6587 high. However, sustained break of 1.3671 will invalidate our bullish view and would turn focus back to 1.1602 long term bottom.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6426; (P) 1.6490; (R1) 1.6599; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays on the upside rise at this point. Sustained break of 1.6513 resistance will confirm that whole correction from 1.6785 has completed at 1.5846. Further rally would be seen to retest 1.6785 high next. On the downside, break of 1.6255 minor support will mix up the outlook and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, with 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.6785 at 1.5828 intact, rally from 1.4281 is still in progress. Firm break of 1.6785 will confirm rally resumption. Next target is 100% projection of 1.5254 to 1.6785 from 1.5846 at 1.7377. On the other hand, rejection by 1.6785 will extend the corrective pattern with another fall leg. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.5828 holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6182; (P) 1.6258; (R1) 1.6311; More…

Consolidation from 1.6144 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral in EUR/AUD. Further fall is expected with 1.6374 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 1.6144 will target retest of 1.6033 low first. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend from 1.9799. On the upside, break of 1.6374 resistance will turn bias to the upside, and extend the consolidation pattern from 1.6033 with another rising leg.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions form 1.9799 might be developing into a sideway pattern only. That is, medium term outlook is just neutral, and up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) could resume at a later stage. On the downside, though, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 1.6459) would revive medium term bearishness for 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733.

EUR/AUD edged higher to 1.5743 last week but lost momentum since then. Initial bias is neutral this week. ON the downside, break of 1.5585 minor support should confirm rejection by 55 day EMA (now at 1.5755). Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside to extend the fall from 1.6434 through 1.5354. On upside, however, sustained break of 55 day EMA will argue that whole fall from 1.6434 has completed and bring stronger rally.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) is in progress. Firm break of 1.5250 low will confirm resumption and target 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 (2012 low) to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Sustained break there could bring more downside acceleration to 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623. In any case, break of 1.6434 resistance is needed to signal medium term bottoming, or outlook will stay bearish.

In the longer term picture, fall from 1.9799 (2020 high) is seen as a long term down trend. Sustained break of 61.8 retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733 will extend the decline to 1.3624 long term support and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5743; (P) 1.5784; (R1) 1.5808; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 1.5559 will resume the fall from 1.6168 to retest 1.5250/5354 support zone. On the upside, however, break of 1.5898 will argue that pull back form 1.6168 has completed. Intraday bias will be back to the upside for 1.6168 resistance.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.5354 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.5250 low. Further rise cannot be ruled out, but even in that case, strong resistance should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988. Larger down trend from 1.9799 is in favor to extend through 1.5250 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6183; (P) 1.6268; (R1) 1.6314; More…

EUR/AUD’s fall from 1.6786 accelerates to as low as 1.6177 so far. The break 1.6247 support dampens original bullish view. Rise from 1.5683 could have completed at 1.6786 after breaching 1.6765. Intraday bias is now on the downside for 1.5894 support. Break will target 1.5346 support next. On the upside, above 1.6351 minor resistance will turn bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains bullish and up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is still in progress. Prior support from 55 week EMA indicates medium term bullishness. Next upside target is 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488. In any case, break of 1.5894 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6079; (P) 1.6126; (R1) 1.6198; More….

EUR/AUD drew support from 38.2% retracement of 1.5601 to 1.6353 at 1.6066 and formed a temporary low at 1.6051. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the upside, above 1.6172 minor resistance will indicate completion of the corrective fall from 1.6353. Intraday bias would be turned back to the upside for retesting this high. On the downside, below 1.6051 will extend the corrective decline. But downside should be contained well above 1.5886 cluster support (61.8% retracement at 1.5888) to bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3624 (2017 low) is still in progress. Further rise should be seen to retest 1.6587 (2015 high). Decisive break there will resume the long term rally and target 1.7488 fibonacci level. On the downside, break of 1.5601 support is need to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6502; (P) 1.6565; (R1) 1.6684; More…

EUR/AUD surges to as high as 1.6663 as rise from 1.5962 resumed. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 100% projection of 1.5962 to 1.6593 from 1.6085 at 1.6716, and then 1.6785 high. On the downside, below 1.6511 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, EUR/AUD is still bounded in established range of 1.5905/6786. Continuos support from 55 week EMA (now at 1.6122) is seen as an indication of medium term bullishness. For now, larger up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is still in favor to continue as long as 1.5962 support holds. Break of 1.6786 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6247; (P) 1.6290; (R1) 1.6365; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral as it’s still bounded in consolidation from 1.6134. Further decline is expected with 1.634 minor resistance intact. Considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, fall from 1.6785 might be a correction to whole up trend from 1.4281. Break of 1.6134 will target 38.2 retracement of 1.4281 to 1.6785 at 1.5828, which is inside 1.5254/5976 support zone. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.6354 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.6785 high instead.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) should have completed at 1.4281 (2022 low). Further rise should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.7691 next. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.5976 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5500; (P) 1.5547; (R1) 1.5606; More….

Despite jumping to 1.5690, subsequent sharp fall and break of 1.5487 minor support argues that rebound from 1.5271 has completed already, ahead of 1.5773 support turned resistance as expected. EUR/AUD was limited limited by 55 day EMA. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 1.5271 low first. Break there will resume whole fall from 1.6189 to 1.5153 key support next.

In the bigger picture, rally from 1.3624 (2017 low) should have completed at 1.6189 already, ahead of 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). 1.6189 is seen as a medium term top. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6189 at 1.5209 first. Decisive break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.4604. In that case, we’ll look for bottoming again below 1.4604. On the upside, firm break of 1.5773 support turned resistance is needed to indicate completion of the fall from 1.6189. Otherwise, further decline is expected in medium term, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6484; (P) 1.6518; (R1) 1.6542; More…

Range trading continues in EUR/AUD and intraday bias remains neutral. After all, as long as 1.6772 resistance holds, further decline is expected. On the downside, firm break of 1.6033 will resume the decline from 1.9799 for next support level at 1.5346. On the upside, however, break of 1.6772 resistance will confirm short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) might have completed at 1.9799. Deeper fall could be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. This will remain the preferred case now as long as 1.7194 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6267; (P) 1.6307; (R1) 1.6350; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for consolidation below 1.6448 temporary top. Downside of retreat should be contained well above 1.6052 support to bring rise resumption. On the upside, break of 1.6448 will target 100% projection of 1.5683 to 1.6262 from 1.6052 at 1.6631 next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will still remain bullish. Up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6272; (P) 1.6346; (R1) 1.6485; More..

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is turned neutral with current recovery. But outlook remains bearish with 1.6478 resistance intact. Break of 1.6206 will resume larger decline from 1.7062. Next target is 100% projection of 1.7062 to 1.6319 from 1.6844 at 1.6106.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as correcting the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000. Strong support could be seen there to bring rebound on first attempt. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.6844 resistance holds. Sustained break of 1.6000 would bring further fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.5343.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6036; (P) 1.6100; (R1) 1.6197; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is turned neutral for the current recovery. On the upside, above 1.6232 will resume the rebound to retest 1.6434 high. Overall, rise form 1.5250 is still in favor to continue as long as 1.5898 support holds. However, sustained break of 1.5898 will argue that whole rise from 1.5250 has completed, and turn near term outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.5250 medium term bottom is currently seen as a correction to the down trend from 1.9799 first. Stronger rise could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988 next. We’d tentatively expect strong resistance from there to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Meanwhile, break of 1.5898 support will indicate that the rebound has completed. Larger down trend from 1.9799 might be ready to resume through 1.5250 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5400; (P) 1.5425; (R1) 1.5468; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 1.5606 will extend the corrective pattern from 1.5250 with another rise. Intraday bias will be turned to the upside for 1.5689 and then 38.2% retracement of 1.6827 to 1.5250 at 1.5852. On the downside, firm break of 1.5250 support will resume the larger down trend from 1.9799. Next target is 1.4733 long term fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6033 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

EUR/AUD’s correction from 1.7062 extend lower last week. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 55 D EMA (now at 1.6621). Strong support could be seen from there to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.6887 resistance will suggest that the pull back has completed and bring retest of 1.7062 high.

In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.4281 (2022 low) is in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.5254 to 1.6785 from 1.5846 at 1.7377. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.5846 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

In the longer term picture, it’s still early to decide if rise from 1.4281 is resuming whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). But in either case, further rally is in favor as long as 1.5846 support holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.7691.