EUR/AUD dropped further to as low as 1.5905 last week but recovered ahead of 1.5894. A short term bottom should be formed with bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Initial bias is mildly on the upside for 1.6308 support turned resistance first. Firm break there should confirm completion of whole fall from 1.6789 and target this resistance again. For now, in case of another decline, we’d continue to expect strong support from 1.5894 to contain downside to bring rebound. However, sustained break will carry larger bearish implications and target 1.5683 support next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5894 support holds, outlook remains bullish. Firm break of 1.6786 will resume up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Next upside target is 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488. However, sustained break of 1.5894 will have 55 week EMA (now at 1.6008) firmly taken out too. That should indicate medium term topping and target 1.5346 key support next.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) is still in progress for 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.5894 remains intact. However, firm break of 1.5894 will be an early sign of major topping and turn focus to 1.5346 key support for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6003; (P) 1.6048; (R1) 1.6088; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the downside as fall from 1.6434 is in progress for 1.5898 support. Sustained break there will argue that choppy rise from 1.5250 has completed already. Outlook will be turned bearish for retesting 1.5250 low. On the upside, however, above 1.6171 resistance will revive near term bullishness, and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.6434 high instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.5250 medium term bottom is currently seen as a correction to the down trend from 1.9799 first. Stronger rise would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988 next. We’d tentatively expect strong resistance from there to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Meanwhile, break of 1.5898 support will indicate that the rebound has completed and bring retest of 1.5250 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6325; (P) 1.6379; (R1) 1.6456; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral and consolidation from 1.6033 could extend further. Still as long as 1.6772 resistance holds, further decline is expected. On the downside, firm break of 1.6033 will resume the decline from 1.9799 for next support level at 1.5346. On the upside, however, break of 1.6772 resistance will confirm short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) might have completed at 1.9799. Deeper fall could be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. This will remain the preferred case now as long as 1.7194 resistance holds.

EUR/AUD’s decline from 1.6357 resumed last week by breaking 1.5519 and reached as low as 1.5468. Initial bias stays is now on the downside this week for 1.5271/5313 cluster support zone next. On the upside, above 1.5581 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation. But recovery should be limited below 1.5781 resistance to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that up trend from 1.3624 (2017 low) is possibly completed at 1.6357, ahead of 1.6587 (2015 high). This is supported by bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Deeper decline is now in favor to 1.5271 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6357 at 1.5313). Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.4668. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.5781 resistance holds.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3624 key support should indicate long term reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6182; (P) 1.6225; (R1) 1.6294; More…

EUR/AUD’s break of 1.6262 resistance indicates resumption of recent rally from 1.5683. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 61.8% projection of 1.5683 to 1.6262 from 1.6052 at 1.6410 first. Break will target 100% projection at 1.6631 next. On the downside, break of 1.6052 support is now needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will still remain bullish. Up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6616; (P) 1.6662; (R1) 1.6736; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral with focus on 1.6763 resistance. Firm break there will suggests short term bottoming, and more importantly, successful defending of 1.6597 key support. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.7194 resistance first. On the downside, sustained trading below 1.6597 will carry larger bearish implication and target 1.6085 support next.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.6597 key cluster support, (2015 high and 38.2% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.6668, 55 week EMA (now at 1.6548). Strong rebound from current level will retain medium term bullishness. Larger up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) would extend through 1.9799 high. However, sustained break of 1.6597 will suggest bearish reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.4733.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5592; (P) 1.5672; (R1) 1.5720; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains mildly on the downside at this point. The rebound from 1.5271 could have completed at 1.5888 already. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.5271 to 1.5888 at 1.5507. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.5271 low. On the upside, break of 1.5749 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.5888 instead.

In the bigger picture, the rebound from 1.5271 was somewhat weaker than expected. EUR/AUD also failed to sustain above 55 day EMA and hints on some underlying bearishness. Though, for now, as long as 1.5271 support holds, medium term rise from m 1.3624 (2017 low) is still mildly in favor to extend through 1.6189 high, to 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). Nevertheless, firm break of 1.5271 will complete a head and shoulder top pattern (ls: 1.5770, h: 1.6189, rs: 1.5888). That would indicate medium term reversal and turn outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6254; (P) 1.6304; (R1) 1.6359; More…

Outlook in EUR/AUD remains unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is expected with 1.6255 support intact. As noted before, correction from 1.6785 should have completed with three waves down to 1.5846. Above 1.6552 will target a retest on 1.6785 high next. Nevertheless, on the downside, firm break of 1.6255 will dampen this view and turn bias to the downside for 1.5846 support.

In the bigger picture, with 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.6785 at 1.5828 intact, rally from 1.4281 is still in progress. Firm break of 1.6785 will confirm rise resumption. Next target is 100% projection of 1.5254 to 1.6785 from 1.5846 at 1.7377. On the other hand, rejection by 1.6785 will extend the corrective pattern with another fall leg. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.5828 holds.

EUR/AUD’s fall from 1.7062 resumed last week and hit as low as 1.6319. Outlook is unchanged that this decline is seen as a larger scale correction. Deeper fall is expected as long as 1.6650 resistance holds. Next target is 1.6000 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 is probably correcting whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000. Strong support could be seen there to bring rebound, at least on first attempt. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.6650 resistance holds.

In the longer term picture, loss of upside momentum as seen in 55 W MACD at this stage argues that rise from 1.4281 (2022 low) is more likely a corrective move. Further rise could still be seen as long as 1.5846 support holds. But upside will likely be limited by 61.8% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.7691. Firm break of 1.5846 support will argue that the rise has completed, and another medium term down leg has started.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7781; (P) 1.7975; (R1) 1.8095; More…

EUR/AUD is staying in correction from 1.9799 and deeper fall could be seen. But downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 1.6085 to 1.9799 at 1.7504 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.8747 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for retesting 1.9799 high first.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is in progress and further rally would be seen to 2.1127 (2008 high) and possibly to 161.8% projection of 1.1602 to 1.6597 from 1.3524 at 2.1706. On the downside, for now, touching of 1.6597 resistance turned support (2015 high), is needed to indicate medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5781; (P) 1.5821; (R1) 1.5854; More…

intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 1.5657 support will suggest rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.6827 to 1.5250 at 1.5852. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.5418 support first. Break there should confirm completion of consolidation pattern from 1.5250. On the upside, break of 1.5871 will extend the near term rebound to 1.6033 key support turned resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6033 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound. However, firm break of 1.6033 will argue that such decline has completed, and turn focus to 1.6827 structural resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6156; (P) 1.6235; (R1) 1.6327; More…

Immediate focus is now on 61.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.5976 from 1.5254 at 1.6302 . Decisive break there will resume larger rally from 1.4281 to 1.6389 fibonacci level and then 1.6434 resistance. However, firm break of 1.6053 support will indicate rejection by 1.6302 and turn bias back to the downside for 1.5848 support.

In the bigger picture, the strong support from 55 week EMA (now at 1.5404) is raising the chance of bullish trend reversal. Focus is now on 1.6434 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.6389). Sustained break there should confirm that whole down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) has completed. Further rally should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.7691. However, rejection by this cluster resistance will make medium term outlook neutral at best.

EUR/AUD continued to lose downside momentum last week, even though there was not solid bounce yet. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Strong support is expected from around 100% projection of 1.6785 to 1.6134 from 1.6513 at 1.5862 to complete the fall from 1.6785. On the upside, break of 1.6101 resistance will confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6785 are seen as a correction to up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) only. Strong support should be seen around 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.6785 at 1.5828 to complete the first leg and bring rebound. However, sustained trading below 1.5828 will raise the chance of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.5238.

In the longer term picture, it’s still early to decide if rise from 1.4281 is resuming whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). But in either case, further rally is in favor as long as 1.5254 support holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.7691.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5390; (P) 1.5487; (R1) 1.5539; More…

EUR/AUD drops to as low as 1.5336 so far and intraday bias remains on the downside. Break of 1.5354 support should now pave the way to 1.5250 low. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend from 1.9799. Next near term target will be 100% projection of 1.6343 to 1.5354 from 1.6223 at 1.5143. On the upside, break of 1.5679 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook stays bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.5250 low are seen as a corrective pattern. Further extension could be seen and another rise cannot be ruled out. But strong resistance should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988. Larger down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) is in favor to extend through 1.5250 at a later stage. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 (2012 low) to 1.9799 at 1.4733

EUR/AUD stayed in consolidation from 1.6033 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first and more range trading could be seen. Overall, outlook will remain bearish for another decline as long as 1.6586 resistance holds. Break of 1.6033 will resume the whole fall from 1.9799, towards long term EMA at 1.5792. Nevertheless, on the upside, break of 1.6585 resistance should confirm short term bottoming and turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) might have completed at 1.9799. Deeper fall could be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 1.5792). Sustained break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. This will remain the preferred case now as long as 1.6586 resistance holds.

In the longer term picture rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) could have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799. The development suggests that long term range trading is extending with another medium term down leg. Sustained trading below 55 month EMA (now at 1.5792) will further affirm this case and target 1.1602/3624 support zone.

EUR/AUD surged to as high as 1.6827 last week before forming a temporary top there and retreated. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. The development suggests that the cross is already in correction to fall from 1.9799 to 1.6033. Further rise is expected as long as 1.6485 support holds. Break of 1.6827 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.6033 at 1.7472. However, break of 1.6485 support will argue that the rebound might be completed and turn focus to 1.6337 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, EUR/AUD is now back above 55 day EMA (now at 1.6463) with current rebound. The development argues that price actions form 1.9799 might be developing into a sideway pattern only. That is, medium term outlook is just neutral, and up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) could resume at a later stage. On the downside, though, sustained trading below 55 week EMA would revive medium term bearishness for 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733.

In the longer term picture rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) could have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799. The development suggests that long term range trading is extending with another medium term down leg. Sustained trading below 55 month EMA (now at 1.5816) will further affirm this case and target 1.1602/3624 support zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6138; (P) 1.6262; (R1) 1.6335; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the downside for 1.6134 support. Firm break there will resume whole fall from 1.6785, and target 100% projection of 1.6785 to 1.6134 from 1.6513 at 1.5862. On the upside, above 1.6296 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, a medium term is possibly in place at 1.6785 already, on bearish divergence condition in D MACD. Fall from there is seen as corrective whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline is expected as long as 1.6513 resistance holds, to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.6785 at 1.5828.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6502; (P) 1.6565; (R1) 1.6625; More…

Range trading continues in EUR/AUD and intraday bias remains neutral. With 1.6650 resistance intact, fall from 1.7062 is still expected to continue. Below 1.6446 minor support will bring retest of 1.6319 first. Break there will resume the decline to 1.6000 fibonacci level. On the upside, firm break of 1.6650 resistance will argue that pull back from 1.7062 has completed, after drawing support from medium term rising trend line. Further rally would be seen back to retest 1.7062.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 is probably correcting whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000. Strong support could be seen there to bring rebound, at least on first attempt. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.6650 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5949; (P) 1.5991; (R1) 1.6043; More…

A temporary top is formed at 1.6040 in EUR/AUD and intraday bias is turned neutral for consolidations. Downside of retreat should be contained by 1.5826 resistance turned support to bring another rally. Above 1.6040 will resume the larger rally to 61.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.5976 from 1.5254 at 1.6302.

In the bigger picture, the strong support from 55 week EMA (now at 1.5396) is raising the chance of bullish trend reversal. On break of 1.5976, focus will be on 1.6434 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.6389). Sustained break there should confirm that whole down trend form 1.9799 (2020 high) has completed. However, rejection by this cluster resistance will make medium term outlook neutral at best.

EUR/AUD dropped to as low as 1.6033 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and some more consolidations could be seen. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6772 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.6033 will extend the fall from 1.9799 to next support level at 1.5346.

In the bigger picture, the firm break of 1.6597 key cluster support, (2015 high and 38.2% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.6668, 55 week EMA (now at 1.6553) suggests that whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) might have completed. Deeper fall would now be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.4733. This week remain the preferred case now as long as 1.7194 resistance holds.

In the longer term picture rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) could have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799. The development suggests that long term range trading is extending with another medium term down leg. Sustained trading below 55 month EMA (now at 1.5713) will further affirm this case and target 1.1602/3624 support zone.