Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4743; (P) 1.4778; (R1) 1.4822; More…

The pull back from 1.5226 could have completed at 1.4625 after drawing support from 38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.5226 at 1.4614. Further rise is mildly in favor to retest 1.5226 high. However, sustained break of 1.4614 fibonacci level will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.4236 and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction should be completed at 1.3624 after defending 1.3671 key support. Rise from 1.3642 would extend to 61.8% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.5455. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.6587. However, sustained break of 1.4669 support will dampen this bullish view. We’ll assess the outlook later after looking at the structure and depth of the pull back.

EUR/AUD dipped to 1.6412 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 1.6412 and sustained trading below 1.6439 support will argue that whole rebound from 1.6127 has completed, and turn near term outlook bearish for this support again. Nevertheless, strong rebound from current level, followed by break of 1.6561 minor resistance, will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.6742.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Break of 1.6844 resistance will argue that this up trend is ready to resume through 1.7062 high. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.9799 (2020 high) are seen as a long term decline at the same scale as the rise from 1.1602 (2012 low). Rebound from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg. As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.5950) holds, this second leg could still extend higher. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will open up the bearish case for extending the decline through 1.4281 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4776; (P) 1.4823; (R1) 1.4914; More…

EUR/AUD recovered after forming a temporary low at 1.4732 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Overall outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 1.5226 is still in progress. Below 1.4732 will target a test on 50% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.5226 at 1.4427 again. On the upside, above 1.5019 will target a test on 1.5226 high instead.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to extend to retest 1.6587. The corrective structure of the fall from 1.5226 is affirming this view. Above 1.5226 will target a test on 1.6587 key resistance. However, another decline will dampen our view and would drag EUR/AUD lower to retest key support zone around 1.3624.

EUR/AUD continued to stay in sideway trading inside 1.6033/6772 last week. Outlook is unchanged and initial bias remains neutral this week first. Also, further decline is in favor with 1.6772 resistance intact. On the downside, firm break of 1.6033 will resume the decline from 1.9799 for next support level at 1.5346. On the upside, however, break of 1.6772 resistance will confirm short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) might have completed at 1.9799. Deeper fall could be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. This will remain the preferred case now as long as 1.7194 resistance holds.

In the longer term picture rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) could have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799. The development suggests that long term range trading is extending with another medium term down leg. Sustained trading below 55 month EMA (now at 1.5785) will further affirm this case and target 1.1602/3624 support zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5559; (P) 1.5655; (R1) 1.5770; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays mildly on the upside at this point. Correction from 1.5976 should have completed at 1.5376. Further rally would be seen for retesting 1.5976 first. Firm break there will resume larger rise from 1.4281. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 1.5376 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, it’s still early to confirm if rise from 1.4281 represents bullish trend reversal. But as long as 1.5271 support holds, such rally is in favor to continue. Break of 1.5976 will target 1.6434 key resistance next. On the other hand, firm break of 1.5271 will retain medium term bearishness instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6207; (P) 1.6239; (R1) 1.6266; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral at this point. Also, further rise is still in favor. On the upside, sustained break of 1.6353 will resume larger up trend and target 1.6587 key resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 1.6145 support will likely extend the corrective pattern from 1.6353 with another leg back to 1.5984.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3624 (2017 low) is still in progress. Further rise should be seen to retest 1.6587 (2015 high). Decisive break there will resume the long term rally and target 1.7488 fibonacci level. On the downside, break of 1.5984 support is need to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5713; (P) 1.5793; (R1) 1.5834; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral as it’s bounded in range of 1.5969/5886. Another rise is expected with 1.5696 minor support intact. On the upside, break of 1.5886 will resume the rebound from 1.5271 and target 1.6189 high. However, as the rebound from 1.5271 is not clearly impulsive yet and momentum isn’t too convincing. Break of 1.5695 minor support could be an early sign of near term topping. In such case, bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.5425 support.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 1.6189 is a corrective move and has completed at 1.5217 already. Key support levels of 1.5153 and 38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6189 at 1.5209 were defended. And medium term rise from 1.3624 (2017 low) is still in progress. Break of 1.6189 will target 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4020; (P) 1.4102; (R1) 1.4148; More…

A temporary top is formed at 1.4183 in EUR/AUD and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Some consolidation would be seen but downside should be contained by 1.3874/4014 support zone and bring another rally. As noted before, we’re favoring the case of medium term trend reversal defending key support level at 1.3671, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD Above 1.4183 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.4289 resistance. Sustained break there will affirm our bullish view and target 1.4721 key resistance next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. We’d expect strong support from 1.3671 key level to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.4721 resistance will indicate completion of such correction and turn outlook bullish for retesting 1.6587 high. However, sustained break of 1.3671 will invalidate our bullish view and would turn focus back to 1.1602 long term bottom.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5291; (P) 1.5386; (R1) 1.5462; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the downside with focus on 1.5271 support. Decisive break there will carry larger bearish implication. Deeper decline would then be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.5976 at 1.4928. Nevertheless, rebound from current level, followed by break of 1.5499 minor resistance, will revive near term bullishness for 1.5749 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, it’s still early to confirm if rise from 1.4281 represents bullish trend reversal. But as long as 1.5271 support holds, such rally is in favor to continue. Break of 1.5976 will target 1.6434 key resistance next. On the other hand, firm break of 1.5271 will retain medium term bearishness instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5508; (P) 1.5594; (R1) 1.5671; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the downside at this point. Corrective rebound from 1.5354 should have completed with three waves up to 1.6223. Deeper fall should be seen to 1.5250/5354 support zone. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.5837 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.5250 low are seen as a corrective pattern. Further extension could be seen and another rise cannot be ruled out. But strong resistance should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988. Larger down trend from 1.9799 is in favor to extend through 1.5250 at a later stage.

EUR/AD recovered to 1.4940 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias is neutral this week work. It’s seen as extending the consolidation pattern from 1.4561 and more sideway trading could be seen. But after all, outlook remains bearish as long as 1.5327 resistance holds. Firm break of 1.4533 will resume larger down trend.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.9799 is seen as a long term impulsive move. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). Some support could be seen there to bring interim rebound. But overall, break of 1.5354 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

In the longer term picture, fall from 1.9799 (2020 high) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Deeper fall should be seen to 1.3624 support. Decisive break there would pave the way back to 1.1602 (2012 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6107; (P) 1.6161; (R1) 1.6202; More…

EUR/AUD’s break of 1.6301/8 suggests resumption of rebound from 1.5905. Also, corrective fall from 1.6786 should have completed with three waves down to 1.5905. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.6680/6786 resistance zone next. On the downside, break of 1.6074 support is needed to confirm completion of the rebound. Otherwise, near term outlook will stay cautiously bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5894 support holds, outlook remains bullish. Firm break of 1.6786 will resume up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Next upside target is 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488. However, sustained break of 1.5894 will have 55 week EMA (now at 1.6024) firmly taken out too. That should indicate medium term topping and target 1.5346 key support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6175; (P) 1.6242; (R1) 1.6287; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. Further rally is expected as long as 1.6053 support holds. Focus is now on 1.6389/6434 cluster resistance zone. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, break of 1.6053 will indicate short term topping and turn bias back to the downside for 1.5848 support and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.6389/6434 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.6389). Sustained break there should confirm that whole down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) has completed. Further rally should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.7691. However, rejection by this cluster resistance will make medium term outlook neutral at best.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5849; (P) 1.5892; (R1) 1.5925; More….

With 1.5786 minor support intact, further rise is expected in EUR/AUD for 61.8% projection of 1.5258 to 1.5816 from 1.5626 at 1.5971. Break there target 100% projection at 1.6184. On the downside, break of 1.5786 will rise the chance of near term reversal and turn bias to the downside for 1.5626 support.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 1.3624 is still in progress for 1.6587 key resistance. At this point, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside. But decisive break will confirm resumption of long term rise from 1.1602. On the downside, break of 1.5153 support is needed to indicate completion of the medium term rise. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4281; (P) 1.4354; (R1) 1.4391; More…

EUR/AUD’s fall from 1.4721 resumed by taking out 1.4322. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 1.4072. Break there will extend the correction from 1.6587 towards next key support level 1.3671.On the upside, above 1.4467 minor resistance will turn bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a consolidative pattern. 50% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.6587 at 1.4095 was already met. While further fall cannot be ruled out, we’d expect strong support above 1.3671 to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.5094 will be the first sign of resumption of up trend from 1.1602 and target retesting of 1.6587 resistance first.

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EUR/AUD edged higher to 1.5871 last week, but failed to sustain above 38.2% retracement of 1.6827 to 1.5250 at 1.5852 again. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 1.5657 support will suggest rejection by 1.5852 fibonacci level. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.5418 support first. Break there should confirm completion of consolidation pattern from 1.5250. On the upside, break of 1.5871 will extend the near term rebound to 1.6033 key support turned resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6033 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound. However, firm break of 1.6033 will argue that such decline has completed, and turn focus to 1.6827 structural resistance for confirmation.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) should have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799 (2020 high). Fall from there is seen as a medium term to long term down leg as a long term down trend, or a sideway pattern. We’ll assess the odds again at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6684; (P) 1.6820; (R1) 1.6892; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the downside at this point. Current fall from 1.9799 should target 1.6597 key support. Firm break there will carry larger bearish implications. On the upside, though, break of 1.7350 minor resistance will suggest short term bottoming. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, while the pull back from 1.9799 is deep, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. EUR/AUD is still holding on to 1.6597 (2015 high) cluster support, with 38.2% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.6668. Larger rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) is in progress and would resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.6597 suggest bearish reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6353; (P) 1.6386; (R1) 1.6436; More…

EUR/AUD rebounds strongly today but stays below 1.6586 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, sustained break of 1.6586 will suggest that it’s at least in correction to the fall from 1.9799 to 1.6033. Further rise should then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.6033 at 1.7472. However, rejection by 1.6586 will maintain near term bearishness for another fall through 1.6033 later.

In the bigger picture, whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) might have completed at 1.9799. Deeper fall might be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 1.5816). Sustained break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. However, strong support from 55 week EMA (now at 1.6449) would neutralize the long term bearishness and argues that price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a sideway range pattern instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6494; (P) 1.6537; (R1) 1.6610; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. t. On the upside, decisive break of 1.6671 will revive the case that whole correction from 1.7062 has completed with three waves down to 1.6127. Further rally should then be seen to 1.6844 resistance for confirmation. Nevertheless, break of 1.6438 will bring deeper fall back to 1.6127 support instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Break of 1.6844 resistance will argue that this up trend is ready to resume through 1.7062 high. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5961; (P) 1.5993; (R1) 1.6046; More…

EUR/AUD’s rally resumes by powering through 1.6064 temporary top and intraday bias is back on the upside. Focus is now on 1.6122 resistance. Decisive break will confirm the bullish view that correction from 1.6765 has completed with three waves down to 1.5683. In this case, further rise should be seen back to retest 1.6765 high. On the downside, break of 1.5905 support is needed to indicate completion of the rise from 1.5683. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will still remain bullish. Uptrend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.