Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4714; (P) 1.4758; (R1) 1.4785; More…

EUR/AUD failed to sustain above 4 hour 55 EMA and retreated. As it’s staying above 1.4625 temporary low, intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, above 1.4813 will extend the rebound from 1.4625 to retest 1.5226 high next. However, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.5226 at 1.4614 will bring deep fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.4236 and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction should be completed at 1.3624 after defending 1.3671 key support. Rise from 1.3642 would extend to 61.8% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.5455. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.6587. However, sustained break of 1.4669 support will dampen this bullish view. We’ll assess the outlook later after looking at the structure and depth of the pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5458; (P) 1.5527; (R1) 1.5567; More…

EUR/AUD’s fall resumed by breaking 1.5456 and intraday bias is back on the downside for 161.8% projection of 1.6434 to 1.5907 from 1.6232 at 1.5379 Break there will target 1.5250 low. Nevertheless, break of 1.5598 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 1.5878).

In the bigger picture, with 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988 intact, the down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) is expected to resume at a later stage. Firm break of 1.5250 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 (2012 low) to 1.9799 at 1.4733. In any case, sustained break of 1.6988 fibonacci level is needed to indicate long term reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5454; (P) 1.5532; (R1) 1.5585; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral as range trading continues inside 1.5250/5689. Outlook remains bearish as it’s staying inside near term falling channel. On the downside, break of 1.5250 low will resume larger down trend from 1.9799, for 1.4733 fibonacci level. On the upside, though, break of 1.5689 and sustained trading above channel resistance will indicate short term bottoming. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.5945 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6033 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4474; (P) 1.4561; (R1) 1.4701; More…

EUR/AUD’s strong rebound indicates short term bottoming at 1.4421, after hitting 100% projection of 1.5226 to 1.4625 from 1.4472. The development also suggests completion of the correction from 1.5226, with three waves down to 1.4421. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 1.4744) will target 1.5073 resistance. Break there will indicate resumption of whole rise from 1.3624. On the downside, below 1.4585 minor support will turn focus back to 1.4421 instead.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to resume to retest 1.6587. The corrective structure of the fall from 1.5226 is affirming this view. Above 1.5226 will target a test on 1.6587 key resistance. However, further downside acceleration will dampen our view and would drag EUR/AUD lower to retest key support zone around 1.3624.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5370; (P) 1.5450; (R1) 1.5492; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral at this point. Outlook stays bearish as it’s staying inside near term falling channel. On the downside, break of 1.5250 low will resume larger down trend from 1.9799, for 1.4733 fibonacci level. On the upside, though, break of 1.5689 and sustained trading above channel resistance will indicate short term bottoming. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.5945 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6033 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

EUR/AUD stayed in tight range last week as sideway trading continued. Initial bias stays neutral first. Another fall is mildly in favor as long as 1.4994 minor resistance holds. Break of 1.4732 will confirm that fall from 1.5173 is the third leg of consolidation pattern from 1.5226. In that case, further fall should be seen to 1.4421 again. But we’d expect strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.4994 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.5173/5226 resistance zone instead.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to extend to retest 1.6587. The corrective structure of the price actions from 1.5226 is affirming this view. Above 1.5226 will target a test on 1.6587 key resistance. However, break of 1.4421 support will dampen our view and would drag EUR/AUD lower to retest key support zone around 1.3624.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3671 should confirm trend reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6426; (P) 1.6502; (R1) 1.6650; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral as sideway trading continues. Further Further rally is expected with 1.6231 support intact. Firm break of 1.6601 will solidify the case that corrective fall from 1.6785 has completed, and target a retest on this high next.

In the bigger picture, with 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.6785 at 1.5828 intact, rally from 1.4281 is still in progress. Firm break of 1.6785 will confirm rise resumption. Next target is 100% projection of 1.5254 to 1.6785 from 1.5846 at 1.7377. On the other hand, rejection by 1.6785 will extend the corrective pattern with another fall leg. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.5828 holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5415; (P) 1.5477; (R1) 1.5526; More…

EUR/AUD’s rally resumed after brief retreat and intraday bias is back on the upside. Current rally should target 161.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.4965 from 1.4716 at 1.5823. On the downside, below 1.5426 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.4281, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Further rise would be seen back to 1.6434 key resistance next. Break of 1.4965 resistance turned support is needed to indicate reversal. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5816; (P) 1.5876; (R1) 1.5982; More….

EUR/AUD’s rise continues today and reaches as high as 1.5998 so far. The break of 1.5976 high indicates resumption of medium term up trend from 1.3624. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 61.8% projection of 1.5130 to 1.5976 from 1.5621 at 1.6130 first. On the downside, below 1.5896 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will now remain bullish as long as 1.5621 support holds.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rise from 1.3624 is not completed yet. And it’s still in progress for 1.6587 key resistance level. We’d be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. But for now, break of 1.5153 support is needed to indicate medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stays bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5659; (P) 1.5690; (R1) 1.5739; More….

EUR/AUD’s rebound from 1.5578 resumed by taking out 1.5725 resistance and reaches as high as 1.5762 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 1.5888 high. Firm break there will resume larger rise from 1.5271. On the downside, break of 1.5601 support will resume the fall from 1.5888 to 61.8% retracement of 1.5271 to 1.5888 at 1.5507 instead.

In the bigger picture, the rebound from 1.5271 was somewhat weaker than expected. EUR/AUD. But there is no confirmation of completion. Break of 1.5888 will likely target 1.6189 and above to resume the medium term rally from 1.3624 (2017 low). This will be the favored case as long as 1.5271 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6329; (P) 1.6372; (R1) 1.6423; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral, further further rise is in favor as long as 1.16278 minor support holds. On the upside, firm break of 1.6478 resistance will argue that whole correction from 1.7062 has completed, and target 1.6844 resistance for confirmation. Nevertheless, break of 1.6278 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.6127 low.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Strong support should be seen around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 bring rebound. Break of 1.6844 will argue that this up trend is ready to resume through 1.7062 high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6264; (P) 1.6293; (R1) 1.6339; More…

Range trading continues in EUR/AUD and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, decisive break of 1.6434 resistance will carry larger bullish implications. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.6216 should confirm short term topping, after rejection by 1.6389/6434 cluster resistance zone. Intraday bias will be back on the downside in this case, to 1.6033 support and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.6389/6434 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.6389). Sustained break there should confirm that whole down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) has completed. Further rally should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.7691. However, rejection by this cluster resistance will make medium term outlook neutral at best.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5480; (P) 1.5570; (R1) 1.5622; More….

EUR/AUD’s correction from 1.5770 is still extending and deeper fall could be seen. But downside should be contained above 1.5226 key support to bring rally resumption. On the upside, break of 1.5770 will resume the medium term rise and target 61.8% projection of 1.3624 to 1.5226 from 1.4949 at 1.5939 first.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term top (2015 high) has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to extend to retest 1.6587. We’ll hold on to this bullish view as long as 1.5226 resistance turned support holds. Firm break of 1.6587 will resume long term rise from 1.1602 (2012 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5593; (P) 1.5627; (R1) 1.5668; More….

EUR/AUD recovers further today but struggles to stay above 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.5677) 1.5677 so far. Intraday bias remains neutral and another decline is mildly in favor. Below 1.5578 will resume the fall from 1.5888 to 61.8% retracement of 1.5271 to 1.5888 at 1.5507. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.5271 low. Nonetheless, sustained break of 4 hour 55 EMA will bring retest of 1.5888 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the rebound from 1.5271 was somewhat weaker than expected. EUR/AUD also failed to sustain above 55 day EMA and hints on some underlying bearishness. Though, for now, as long as 1.5271 support holds, medium term rise from m 1.3624 (2017 low) is still mildly in favor to extend through 1.6189 high, to 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). Nevertheless, firm break of 1.5271 will complete a head and shoulder top pattern (ls: 1.5770, h: 1.6189, rs: 1.5888). That would indicate medium term reversal and turn outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4809; (P) 1.4919; (R1) 1.5016; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the downside for the moment. The correction from 1.5226 short term top could extend to 38.2% retracement of 1.3980 to 1.5226 at 1.4750. At this point, we’d expect strong support from 1.4669 to contain downside and bring rebound. Larger rise from 1.3642 is expected to resume later after the pull back completes.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction should be completed at 1.3624 after defending 1.3671 key support. Rise from 1.3642 is now expected to target 61.8% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.5455. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.6587. In any case, outlook will now stay cautiously bullish as long as 1.4669 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5655; (P) 1.5742; (R1) 1.5791; More….

EUR/AUD’s break of 1.5742 temporary low confirms fall resumption. Intraday bias is back on the downside. As noted before, prior break of 1.5984 support is taken as an early sign of medium term trend reversal. Fall from 1.6357 should now target 1.5601 key support first. Decisive break there will pave the way to 1.5271/5313 cluster support zone next. On the upside, break of 1.5853 minor resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that up trend from 1.3624 (2017 low) is possibly completed at 1.6357, ahead of 1.6587 (2015 high). This is supported by bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Deeper decline is now in favor to 1.5271 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6357 at 1.5313). Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.4668. On the upside, break of 1.6357 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, risk will now stay on the downside even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6699; (P) 1.6785; (R1) 1.6859; More…

EUR/AUD’s retreat from 1.7180 extends lower today but stays well above 1.6474 support. Intraday bias remains neutral first and further rally is still in favor. On the upside, above 1.6869 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.7180. Firm break there will resume larger up trend to 1.7715 fibonacci projection level next.

In the bigger picture, decisive break of 1.7062 resistance will confirm resumption of whole up trend from 1. 1.4281 (2022 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.7062 from 1.5996 at 1.7715. For now, further rally is expected as long as 55 D EMA (now at 1.6355) support holds, even in case of deep retreat.

EUR/AUD rose to as high as 1.6294 last week but failed to break through 1.6314 resistance and retreated sharply. Initial bias is neutral this week first. For now, further rise will remain mildly in favor as long as 1.5962 support holds. On the upside, break of 1.6314 will re-affirm medium term bullishness and target 1.6432 next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5894 support holds, outlook remains bullish. Firm break of 1.6786 will resume up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Next upside target is 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488. However, sustained break of 1.5894 will have 55 week EMA (now at 1.6079) firmly taken out too. That should indicate medium term topping and target 1.5346 key support next.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) is still in progress for 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.5894 remains intact. However, firm break of 1.5894 will be an early sign of major topping and turn focus to 1.5346 key support for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5633; (P) 1.5662; (R1) 1.5718; More…

EUR/AUD is seen as staying in consolidation pattern from 1.5250, even though it’s in another rising leg. Upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.6827 to 1.5250 at 1.5852. Overall, down trend from 1.9799 is expected to resume after consolidation from 1.5250 completes.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6033 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5422; (P) 1.5473; (R1) 1.5525; More…

EUR/AUD is staying in consolidation from 1.5704 and intraday bias stays neutral. While another fall cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained by 55 day EMA (now at 1.5280) to bring rebound. On the upside, decisive break of 1.5704 will resume larger rise from 1.4281. However, sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper correction towards 1.4965 resistance turned support.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.4281, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Further rise would be seen back to 1.6434 key resistance next. Break of 1.4965 resistance turned support is needed to indicate reversal. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor.