EUR/AUD stayed in consolidative trading in range of 1.5984/6357 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias is neutral this week for more sideway trading. As long as 1.5984 support holds, further rise is still expected. On the upside, break of 1.6357 will resume larger up trend and target 1.6587 key resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 1.5984 will be an early sign of trend reversal and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3624 (2017 low) is still in progress. Further rise should be seen to retest 1.6587 (2015 high). Decisive break there will resume the long term rally and target 1.7488 fibonacci level. On the downside, break of 1.5984 support is need to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of deep pull back. However, sustained break of 1.5984 will be an early sign of trend reversal and turn focus to 1.5601 support for confirmation.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3624 key support should indicate long term reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

EUR/AUD’s rebound from 1.5773 extended higher last week but it’s staying below 1.6059 minor resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, below 1.5847 minor support will suggest that rebound form 1.5773 has completed and fall from 1.6189 is resuming. Intraday bias would be turned back to the downside for 1.5773 and then 1.5621 key support level next. On the upside, though, above 1.6059 will turn bias to the upside for 1.6189 instead.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal is building up in EUR/AUD. Bearish divergence condition in daily MACD indicates further loss of upside momentum ahead of 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). Break of 1.5621 should confirm medium term topping and bring deeper fall back to 1.5153 and possibly below. Meanwhile, even in case of up trend resumption, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.6587 to limit upside and bring reversal.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3671 should indicate long term reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6469; (P) 1.6487; (R1) 1.6523; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral at this point. On the upside, decisive break of 1.6671 will revive the case that whole correction from 1.7062 has completed with three waves down to 1.6127. Further rally should then be seen to 1.6844 resistance for confirmation. Nevertheless, below 1.6455 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 1.6348 and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Break of 1.6844 resistance will argue that this up trend is ready to resume through 1.7062 high. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5525; (P) 1.5575; (R1) 1.5627; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral at this point. While further fall cannot be ruled out, strong support could be seen from 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.5976 at 1.5329 to complete the correction from 1.5976. Firm break of 1.5614 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.5976. However, sustained trading below 1.5329 will carry larger bearish implication and target 61.8% retracement at 1.4928.

In the bigger picture, it’s still early to confirm if rise from 1.4281 represents bullish trend reversal. But as long as 1.5271 support holds, such rally is in favor to continue. Break of 1.5976 will target 1.6434 key resistance next. On the other hand, firm break of 1.5271 will retain medium term bearishness instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6594; (P) 1.6709; (R1) 1.6776; More…

EUR/AUD’s decline from 1.9799 is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the downside. Focus stays on 1.6597 key support level. Firm break there will carry larger bearish implications and target 1.6085 support next. Though, rebound from current level would retain medium term bullishness. Break of 1.7321 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, while the pull back from 1.9799 is deep, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. EUR/AUD is still holding on to 1.6597 (2015 high) cluster support, with 38.2% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.6668. Larger rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) is in progress and would resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.6597 suggest bearish reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6677; (P) 1.6723; (R1) 1.6810; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment, with focus on 1.6785 resistance. Decisive break there will confirm resumption of larger up trend, and target 1.7377 projection level next. On the downside, break of 1.6577 resistance turned support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.6259 support, to extend the corrective pattern from 1.6785.

In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.4281 (2022 low) is in progress. Firm break of 1.6785 will confirm resumption for 100% projection of 1.5254 to 1.6785 from 1.5846 at 1.7377. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.5846 support holds, even in case of another pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5381; (P) 1.5435; (R1) 1.5503; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral as consolidation from 1.5704 is in progress. Deeper decline cannot be ruled out. But downside should be contained by 55 day EMA (now at 1.5172) to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.5704 will resume the rally from 1.4281.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.4281, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Further rise would be seen back to 1.6434 key resistance next. Break of 1.4965 resistance turned support is needed to indicate reversal. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6510; (P) 1.6541; (R1) 1.6594; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral at this point. Consolidation from 1.6671 could extend further. But rise from 1.6127 is expected to continue as long as 1.6398 support holds. Corrective fall from 1.7062 should have completed with three waves down to 1.6127 already. Above 1.6671 will target 1.6844 resistance to confirm this bullish case.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Break of 1.6844 resistance will argue that this up trend is ready to resume through 1.7062 high. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5498; (P) 1.5535; (R1) 1.5582; More….

EUR/AUD’s recovery and break of 1.5593 minor resistance suggests temporary bottoming at 1.5487. Intraday bias is turned neutral for consolidations first. Upside of rebound should be limited well below 1.5773 support turned resistance to bring another fall. As noted before, prior break of 1.5621 support is taken as an indication of medium term reversal. Below 1.5487 will target 1.5153 key support next.

In the bigger picture, rally from 1.3624 (2017 low) should have completed at 1.6189 already, ahead of 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). 1.6189 is seen as a medium term top. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6189 at 1.5209 first. Decisive break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.4604. In that case, we’ll look for bottoming again below 1.4604. On the upside, break of 55 day EMA (now at 1.5849) is needed to indicate completion of the fall from 1.6189. Otherwise, further fall is expected in medium term, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6326; (P) 1.6382; (R1) 1.6477; More…

EUR/AUD rises notably today but stays below 1.6552 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Outlook is unchanged that correction from 1.6785 should have completed with three waves down to 1.5846. On the upside, break of 1.6552 will target a retest on 1.6785 high next. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.6231 support holds, even in case of another dip.

In the bigger picture, with 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.6785 at 1.5828 intact, rally from 1.4281 is still in progress. Firm break of 1.6785 will confirm rise resumption. Next target is 100% projection of 1.5254 to 1.6785 from 1.5846 at 1.7377. On the other hand, rejection by 1.6785 will extend the corrective pattern with another fall leg. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.5828 holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6450; (P) 1.6492; (R1) 1.6518; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the downside for retesting 1.6319 support first. Sustained break there will resume the fall from 1.7062, and target 100% projection of 1.7062 to 1.6319 from 1.6843 at 1.6100. On the upside, above 1.6588 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that 1.7062 is already a medium term top. Fall from there is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). While deeper decline might be seen, strong support should emerge from 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 1.6000 will raise the chance of bearish tend reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7878; (P) 1.8107; (R1) 1.8484; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the upside for the moment. Current up trend should extend to next medium term fibonacci projection level at 1.8619. On the downside, break of 1.7286 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is in progress for 100% projection of 1.1602 to 1.6597 from 1.3524 at 1.8619. On the downside, break of 1.6085 support is needed to indicate medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

EUR/AUD’s pull back was continued at 1.3872 last week. Subsequent rally and break of 1.4183 resistance indicates resumption hole rebound from 1.3624. The development also affirms our bullish view. That is, medium term trend is reversing after defending 1.3671 key support level, on on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD.

Initial bias in EUR/AUD is back on the upside this week. Further rally should now be seen to 100% projection of 1.3624 to 1.4183 from 1.3872 at 1.4431. Decisive break there will indicate upside acceleration and target 1.4721 key resistance next. On the downside, below 1.4051 minor support will turn focus back to 1.3872 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction could be completed after testing 1.3671 support. Break of 1.4721 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.4756) should confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement at 1.5455 and above. Overall, we’d expect the up trend from 1.1602 to resume later. However, sustained break of 1.3671 will invalidate our bullish view and would turn focus back to 1.1602 long term bottom.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3671 should confirm trend reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4715; (P) 1.4911; (R1) 1.5019; More…

EUR/AUD drops to as low as 1.4561 so far today and intraday bias stays on the downside. Next target is 161.8% projection of 1.6343 to 1.5354 from 1.6223 at 1.4476. Sustained break there will pave the way to 1.3624 long term target zone. On the upside, above 1.4987 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.9799 is seen as a long term impulsive move. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). Some support could be seen there to bring interim rebound. But overall, break of 1.5354 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4679; (P) 1.4747; (R1) 1.4802; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AU remains neutral first and outlook stays bearish with 1.5327 resistance intact. On the downside, firm break of 1.4533 will resume larger down trend. Next target is 1.3624 long term support. On the upside, above 1.4940 minor resistance will extend the corrective pattern from 1.4561 with another rise.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.9799 is seen as a long term impulsive move. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). Some support could be seen there to bring interim rebound. But overall, break of 1.5354 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

EUR/AUD rose further to 1.6552 last week, but failed to sustain above 1.6513 resistance and treated. Initial bias remains neutral this week for some consolidations first. But further rally is expected as long as 1.6255 support holds. As noted before, correction from 1.6785 should have completed with three waves down to 1.5846. Above 1.6552 will target a retest on 1.6785 high next. Nevertheless, on the downside, break of 1.6255 will dampen this view and turn bias to the downside for 1.5846 support.

In the bigger picture, with 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.6785 at 1.5828 intact, rally from 1.4281 is still in progress. Firm break of 1.6785 will confirm rise resumption. Next target is 100% projection of 1.5254 to 1.6785 from 1.5846 at 1.7377. On the other hand, rejection by 1.6785 will extend the corrective pattern with another fall leg. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.5828 holds.

In the longer term picture, it’s still early to decide if rise from 1.4281 is resuming whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). But in either case, further rally is in favor as long as 1.5254 support holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.7691.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5986; (P) 1.6048; (R1) 1.6083; More….

The rebound from 1.5773 should have finished at 1.6139 already. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside for 1.5773 and possibly below. Nonetheless, as long as 1.5621 support holds, we’ll treat price actions from 1.6189 as a consolidation pattern and expect another rise through 1.6189. On the upside, above 1.6139 will target 1.6189 high again.

In the bigger picture, while there is bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, there is no clear sign of reversal yet. EUR/AUD also drew strong support from 55 day EMA and rebounded. Current rally from 1.3624 could still extend to 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). Nonetheless, we’d expect further loss of upside momentum, and strong resistance from 1.6587 to limit upside and bring reversal. On the downside, sustained break of 1.5621 support should confirm reversal and turn outlook bearish for 1.5153 support and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6730; (P) 1.6784; (R1) 1.6863; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral at this point. Further rally is expected as long as 1.6635 support holds. Above 0.6858 will resume larger up trend to 1.7377 projection level next.

In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.4281 (2022 low) is in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.5254 to 1.6785 from 1.5846 at 1.7377. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.5846 support holds, even in case of another pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5697; (P) 1.5744; (R1) 1.5780; More…

EUR/AUD’s fall form 1.6223 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside for 1.5559 support. Break there should indicate that corrective rise from 1.5354 has completed in form of a three wave pattern. Further decline would then be seen back to 1.5250/5354 support zone. On the upside, above 1.6002 minor resistance will bring retest of 1.6223 resistance instead. On the upside, above 1.5837 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.5250 low are seen as a corrective pattern. Further extension could be seen and another rise cannot be ruled out. But strong resistance should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988. Larger down trend from 1.9799 is in favor to extend through 1.5250 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6003; (P) 1.6030; (R1) 1.6067; More….

EUR/AUD’s fall continues today and reaches as low as 1.5910 so far. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.5773 support and possibly below. For the moment, price actions from 1.6189 are seen as a consolidation pattern. Hence, downside should be contained above 1.5621 to bring rise resumption. On the upside, above 1.6055 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for 1.6189 high again.

In the bigger picture, while there is bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, there is no clear sign of reversal yet. EUR/AUD also drew strong support from 55 day EMA and rebounded. Current rally from 1.3624 could still extend to 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). Nonetheless, we’d expect further loss of upside momentum, and strong resistance from 1.6587 to limit upside and bring reversal. On the downside, sustained break of 1.5621 support should confirm reversal and turn outlook bearish for 1.5153 support and below.