EUR/AUD turned into sideway trading above 1.6452 last week, but upside is capped well below 1.6793 resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and outlook stays bearish. On the downside, break of 1.6452 will resume the fall from 1.7062, as a larger scale correction, to 1.6000 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.6793 will dampen this view and bring retest of 1.7062 instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 is probably correcting whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000. Strong support should be seen there to bring rebound, at least on first attempt.

In the longer term picture, it’s still early to decide if rise from 1.4281 is resuming whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). But in either case, further rally is in favor as long as 1.5846 support holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.7691.

EUR/AUD weakened mildly last week but stayed in consolidation pattern from 1.0633. Outlook is unchanged and initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further fall is expected as long as 1.6772 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.6033 will resume the fall from 1.9799 and target next support level at 1.5346. On the upside, however, break of 1.6772 resistance will confirm short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) might have completed at 1.9799. Deeper fall could be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. This will remain the preferred case now as long as 1.7194 resistance holds.

In the longer term picture rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) could have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799. The development suggests that long term range trading is extending with another medium term down leg. Sustained trading below 55 month EMA (now at 1.5749) will further affirm this case and target 1.1602/3624 support zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6146; (P) 1.6225; (R1) 1.6283; More..

EUR/AUD’s decline is resuming by breaching 1.6137 and intraday bias is back on the downside for 100% projection of 1.7062 to 1.6319 from 1.6844 at 1.6106. Meanwhile, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.6313 resistance should indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for 1.6478 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as correcting the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000. Strong support could be seen there to bring rebound on first attempt. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.6844 resistance holds. Sustained break of 1.6000 would bring further fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.5343.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6173; (P) 1.6227; (R1) 1.6320; More….

EUR/AUD rises to as high as 1.6306 so far today. The break of 1.6252 resistance confirmed that pull back from 1.6353 has completed with three waves down to 1.5984. And, larger up trend is ready to resume. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.6353 resistance first. Break will confirm this bullish case and target 1.6587 key resistance next. On the downside, below 1.6220 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained well above 1.5984 support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3624 (2017 low) is still in progress. Further rise should be seen to retest 1.6587 (2015 high). Decisive break there will resume the long term rally and target 1.7488 fibonacci level. On the downside, break of 1.5886 resistance turned support is need to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of deep pull back.

EUR/AUD’s decline from 1.6139 continued lower last week as expected. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 1.5773 support and possibly below. But for now, price actions from 1.6189 are viewed as a corrective pattern. Hence, we’d expect strong support above 1.5621 to complete the pattern and bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.5966 support turned resistance will turn bias to the upside for 1.6139 and then 1.6189 high.

In the bigger picture, while there is bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, there is no clear sign of reversal yet. Current rally from 1.3624 could extend to 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). Nonetheless, we’d expect further loss of upside momentum, and strong resistance from 1.6587 to limit upside and bring reversal. On the downside, sustained break of 1.5621 support should confirm reversal and turn outlook bearish for 1.5153 support and below.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3671 should indicate long term reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6239; (P) 1.6287; (R1) 1.6325; More…

Sideway consolidation continues in EUR/AUD above 1.6033 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Overall, as long as 1.6586 resistance holds, further decline is still expected. Break of 1.6033 will resume the down trend from 1.9799. Nevertheless, on the upside, break of 1.6585 resistance should turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) might have completed at 1.9799. Deeper fall could be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 1.5792). Sustained break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. This will remain the preferred case now as long as 1.6586 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5639; (P) 1.5684; (R1) 1.5720; More….

EUR/AUD’s decline extends lower today and breaks 1.5621 key support level. That’s taken as an indication of medium term reversal. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.5153 support next. On the upside, break of 1.5726 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rally from 1.3624 (2017 low) should have completed at 1.6189 already, ahead of 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). 1.6189 is seen as a medium term top. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6189 at 1.5209 first. Decisive break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.4604. In that case, we’ll look for bottoming again below 1.4604. On the upside, break of 55 day EMA (now at 1.5849) is needed to indicate completion of the fall from 1.6189. Otherwise, further fall is expected in medium term, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6065; (P) 1.6115; (R1) 1.6180; More….

EUR/AUD is losing some upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But further rise is still expected as long as 1.5983 minor support holds. Current rally should target 100% projection of 1.5271 to 1.5886 from 1.5601 at 1.6216, which is close to 1.6189 high. Upside could be limited there on initial attempt to bring consolidation. On the downside, break of 1.5983 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, further rise will remain in favor in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, EUR/AUD drew strong support from 55 week EMA and rebounded. And the development argues that medium term rally from 1.3624 (2017 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 1.6189 will target a test on 1.6587 (2015 high). On the downside, break of 1.5601 support will now be the first sign of medium term reversal, and will bring a test on 1.5271 key support for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6514; (P) 1.6560; (R1) 1.6621; More…

No change in EUR/AUD’s outlook and further fall is expected with 1.6662 resistance intact. Firm break of 1.6449 support will argue that the pattern from 1.6319 has completed at 1.6844 as a corrective move, and fall from 1.7062 is ready to resume through 1.6319. On the upside, above 1.6662 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.6844 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, while 1.7062 is a medium term top, there is no clear sign of trend reversal as EUR/AUD continues to draw strong support from the medium term trend line. Break of 1.7062 will resume the larger up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) to 1.7691 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, break of 1.6449 support will argue that deeper correction is underway to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5956; (P) 1.6082; (R1) 1.6153; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays on the downside at this point. Current fall from 1.6785 should target 100% projection of 1.6785 to 1.6134 from 1.6513 at 1.5862. On the upside, above 1.6143 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.6513 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top is possibly in place at 1.6785 already, on bearish divergence condition in D MACD. Fall from there is seen as correcting whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline is expected as long as 1.6513 resistance holds, to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.6785 at 1.5828. Strong support could be seen there to complete the first leg of the corrective pattern.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5988; (P) 1.6114; (R1) 1.6192; More…

EUR/AUD recovers after drawing support from 1.6053 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Focus stays on 0.6389/6434 cluster resistance zone. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, firm break of 1.6053 will confirm short term topping, after rejection by the mentioned resistance. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.5848 support and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.6389/6434 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.6389). Sustained break there should confirm that whole down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) has completed. Further rally should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.7691. However, rejection by this cluster resistance will make medium term outlook neutral at best.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6297; (P) 1.6331; (R1) 1.6382; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is turned neutral first. But risk will stay on the upside as long as 1.6127 support holds. Above 1.6398 will resume the rebound to 1.6478 resistance. Firm break there will argue that whole correction from 1.7062 has completed, and target 1.6844 resistance for confirmation. Nevertheless, break of 1.6127 will resume the corrective fall to 1.6000 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Strong support should be seen around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 bring rebound. Break of 1.6844 will argue that this up trend is ready to resume through 1.7062 high.

EUR/AUD dropped sharply to as low as 1.5626 last week. The strong break of 1.5651 support argues that rebound from 1.5271 has completed at 1.5888 already. Initial bias is now on the downside this week for 61.8% retracement of 1.5271 to 1.5888 at 1.5507. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.5271 low. On the upside, break of 1.5749 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.5888 instead.

In the bigger picture, the rebound from 1.5271 was somewhat weaker than expected. EUR/AUD also failed to sustain above 55 day EMA and hints on some underlying bearishness. Though, for now, as long as 1.5271 support holds, medium term rise from m 1.3624 (2017 low) is still mildly in favor to extend through 1.6189 high, to 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). Nevertheless, firm break of 1.5271 will complete a head and shoulder top pattern (ls: 1.5770, h: 1.6189, rs: 1.5888). That would indicate medium term reversal and turn outlook bearish.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3624 key support should indicate long term reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6003; (P) 1.6030; (R1) 1.6067; More….

No change in EUR/AUD’s outlook. Fall from 1.6139 is seen as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.6189. Deeper decline could be seen back to 1.5773 support, and possibly below. But downside should be contained above 1.5621 to bring rise resumption. On the upside, above 1.6139 will target 1.6189 high again.

In the bigger picture, while there is bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, there is no clear sign of reversal yet. EUR/AUD also drew strong support from 55 day EMA and rebounded. Current rally from 1.3624 could still extend to 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). Nonetheless, we’d expect further loss of upside momentum, and strong resistance from 1.6587 to limit upside and bring reversal. On the downside, sustained break of 1.5621 support should confirm reversal and turn outlook bearish for 1.5153 support and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6468; (P) 1.6516; (R1) 1.6545; More…

Outlook is mixed up by deeper than expected fall from 1.6679. On the downside, firm break of 1.6368 support will revive that case that rebound from 1.6127 has completed at 1.6742. Fall from there is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.7062. Deeper decline would then be seen to 1.6127 support and below.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). In case of another fall, strong support is expected around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound. Break of 1.7062 is in favor as a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6664; (P) 1.6695; (R1) 1.6740; More…

Immediate focus is now on 1.7887 resistance will today’s rebound. Firm break there should confirm that correction from 1.7062 has completed at 1.6647. Further rally should be seen through 1.7062 to 1.7377 projection level. On the downside, break of 1.6647 will extend the correction lower instead.

In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.4281 (2022 low) is in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.5254 to 1.6785 from 1.5846 at 1.7377. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.5846 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4370; (P) 1.4418; (R1) 1.4476; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays on the downside for 1.4318 support. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend to medium term projection level at 1.3623. On the upside, break of 1.4712 resistance will delay the bearish case and turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound first.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.9799 is still in progress. Break of 1.4318 low will target 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.5396 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5380; (P) 1.5447; (R1) 1.5542; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains mildly on the upside as rebound from 1.5271 is in progress, for 55 day EMA (now at 1.5664). But upside should be limited below 1.5773 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 1.5271 will extend the fall from 1.6189 to 1.5153 next.

In the bigger picture, rally from 1.3624 (2017 low) should have completed at 1.6189 already, ahead of 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). 1.6189 is seen as a medium term top. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6189 at 1.5209 first. Decisive break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.4604. In that case, we’ll look for bottoming again below 1.4604. On the upside, firm break of 1.5773 support turned resistance is needed to indicate completion of the fall from 1.6189. Otherwise, further decline is expected in medium term, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5792; (P) 1.5856; (R1) 1.5925; More….

At this point, intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the upside. Prior break of 1.5816 resistance confirmed medium term rise resumption. Further rally should be seen to 61.8% projection of 1.5258 to 1.5816 from 1.5626 at 1.5971. Break will target 1.6526. On the downside, below 1.5786 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.5626 support holds.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 1.3624 is still in progress for 1.6587 key resistance. At this point, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside. But decisive break will confirm resumption of long term rise from 1.1602. On the downside, break of 1.5153 support is needed to indicate completion of the medium term rise. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5642; (P) 1.5760; (R1) 1.5831; More….

EUR/AUD’s decline extends to as low as 1.5660 so far and intraday bias remains on the downside. Break of channel support indicates acceleration and raises the chance of medium term reversal. Focus will be on 1.5621 key support. On the upside, break of 1.5774 support turned resistance is needed to be first sign of short term bottoming. Otherwise, deeper will still be in favor in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, while there is bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, there is no clear sign of reversal yet. Current rally from 1.3624 could extend to 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). Nonetheless, we’d expect further loss of upside momentum, and strong resistance from 1.6587 to limit upside and bring reversal. On the downside, sustained break of 1.5621 support should confirm reversal and turn outlook bearish for 1.5153 support and below.