Much volatility was seen in EUR/AUD last week. But it was bounded in range of 1.4791/5173, without making any progress. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 1.5173/5226 resistance zone will finally resume larger rise from 1.3624. On the downside, break of 1.4791 support will turn bias to the downside and extend the fall from 1.5173 to retest 1.4421 support.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term top has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to extend to retest 1.6587. The corrective structure of the price actions from 1.5226 is affirming this view. Above 1.5226 will target a test on 1.6587 key resistance. However, break of 1.4421 support will dampen our view and would drag EUR/AUD lower to retest key support zone around 1.3624.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3671 should confirm trend reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5060; (P) 1.5157; (R1) 1.5208; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral first. While the pull back from 1.5392 was steep, it’s holding well above 1.4949 support. Thus, medium term rally is still in favor to resume. On the upside, break of 1.5392 will resume medium term rise from 1.3624 and target 61.8% projection of 1.3624 to 1.5226 from 1.4949 at 1.5939 first. However, decisive break of 1.4949 will carry larger bearish implication and turn bias to the downside.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term top has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to extend to retest 1.6587. However, break of 1.4949 support will dampen our view and argue that rise from 1.3624 has completed. In that case, EUR/AUD would turn southward for retesting 1.3624 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4839; (P) 1.4918; (R1) 1.4971; More…

EUR/AUD lost some upside momentum a after hitting 1.4997. But intraday bias stays on the upside with 1.4813 minor support intact. As noted before, pull back from 1.5226 should have completed at 1.4625, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.5226 at 1.4614. Further rally should be seen to retest 1.5226 next. On the downside, though, below 1.4813 resistance turned support will turn bias to the downside for 1.4625 again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction should be completed at 1.3624 after defending 1.3671 key support. Rise from 1.3642 would extend to 61.8% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.5455. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.6587. However, sustained break of 1.4669 support will dampen this bullish view. We’ll assess the outlook later after looking at the structure and depth of the pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5255; (P) 1.5324; (R1) 1.5361; More….

No change in EUR/AUD’s outlook. While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, near term outlook stays bullish as long as 1.5226 resistance turned support holds. Break of 1.5430 minor resistance will now indicate completion of the correction from 1.5770 and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.5770. However, sustained break of 1.5226 will indicate larger reversal and target 1.4949 support next.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term top (2015 high) has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to extend to retest 1.6587. We’ll hold on to this bullish view as long as 1.5226 resistance turned support holds. Firm break of 1.6587 will resume long term rise from 1.1602 (2012 low). However, sustained break of 1.5226 will indicate trend reversal and target 1.3624 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6392; (P) 1.6459; (R1) 1.6561; More…

EUR/AUD’s pull back from 1.6786 could have completed at 1.6308. But subsequent rebound failed to through through 1.6786 and retreated. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, firm break of 1.6786 will resume larger up trend. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 1.6247 resistance turned support to bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains bullish as up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is resuming. Strong support from 55 week EMA indicates medium term bullishness. Next upside target is 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488. In any case, break of 1.5894 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6389; (P) 1.6468; (R1) 1.6545; More…

No change in EUR/AUD’s outlook as it’s still bounded in range of 1.6033/6772. Intraday bias remains neutral first. As long as 1.6772 resistance holds, further decline is expected. On the downside, firm break of 1.6033 will resume the decline from 1.9799 for next support level at 1.5346. On the upside, however, break of 1.6772 resistance will confirm short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) might have completed at 1.9799. Deeper fall could be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. This will remain the preferred case now as long as 1.7194 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5983; (P) 1.6022; (R1) 1.6075; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral as consolidation continues. Near term outlook stays bullish as long as 1.5925 support holds. On the upside, break of 1.6182 will resume the rise from 1.5250 to 1.6827 resistance next. However, firm break of 1.5925 will bring deeper fall back to 1.5614 structural support instead.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom was formed at 1.5250, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Rise from 1.5250 is currently seen as a correction to the down trend from 1.9799 first. Stronger rise would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988 next. We’d tentatively expect strong resistance from there to limit upside, at least on first attempt.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5587; (P) 1.5633; (R1) 1.5691; More….

No change in EUR/AUD’s outlook. With 1.5458 support intact, outlook remains bullish for further rally. . Medium term rise from 1.3624 should target 61.8% projection of 1.3624 to 1.5226 from 1.4949 at 1.5939 first. Break will target 100% projection at 1.6551, which is close to 1.6587 key resistance. However, firm break of 1.5458 will now indicate near term topping and should bring pull back towards 55 day EMA (now at 1.5247).

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term top (2015 high) has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to extend to retest 1.6587. We’ll hold on to this bullish view as long as 1.5226 resistance turned support holds. Firm break of 1.6587 will resume long term rise from 1.1602 (2012 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5435; (P) 1.5513; (R1) 1.5567; More….

EUR/AUD is staying in consolidation from 1.5656 and intraday bias remains neutral. Downside of retreat should be contained by 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.5432) and bring rise resumption. Above 1.5656 will extend the rally from 1.3624 and target 61.8% projection of 1.3624 to 1.5226 from 1.4949 at 1.5939 first. Nonetheless, sustained break of 4 hour 55 EMA will bring deeper fall back towards 1.5079 support instead.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term top (2015 high) has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to extend to retest 1.6587. We’ll hold on to this bullish view as long as 1.5226 resistance turned support holds. Firm break of 1.6587 will resume long term rise from 1.1602 (2012 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6283; (P) 1.6323; (R1) 1.6350; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.6448 is extending. Deeper retreat cannot be ruled out. But downside should be contained well above 1.6052 support to bring rise resumption. On the upside, break of 1.6448 will target 100% projection of 1.5683 to 1.6262 from 1.6052 at 1.6631 next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will still remain bullish. Up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5945; (P) 1.6056; (R1) 1.6132; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral at this point. On the upside, above 1.6232 will resume the rebound from 1.5907 to retest 1.6434 high. Overall, rise from 1.5250 is still in favor to continue as long as 1.5898 support holds. However, sustained break of 1.5898 will argue that whole rise from 1.5250 has completed, and turn near term outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.5250 medium term bottom is currently seen as a correction to the down trend from 1.9799 first. Stronger rise could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988 next. We’d tentatively expect strong resistance from there to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Meanwhile, break of 1.5898 support will indicate that the rebound has completed. Larger down trend from 1.9799 might be ready to resume through 1.5250 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5651; (P) 1.5683; (R1) 1.5740; More….

At this point, EUR/AUD is still bounded in range below 1.5816 and intraday bias stays neutral. With 1.5606 support intact, near term outlook remains bullish for further rally. On the upside, break of 1.5816 should now confirm resumption of medium term rise from 1.3264. In that case, EUR/AUD should target 1.6587 key long term resistance. Meanwhile, firm break of 1.5606 will argue that a short term top is formed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.5531) and below.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 1.3624 is not completed yet. Sustained break of 1.5770 will extend the rise to retest 1.6587 (2015 high). However, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, break of 1.4949 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.5770 at 1.4950) will indicate medium term reversal. And there is prospect of retesting 1.3624 low in that bearish case.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3700; (P) 1.3767; (R1) 1.3830; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. At this point, we’d still expect strong support from 1.3671 to contain downside to complete the correction from 1.6587. This is supported by bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Break of 1.3900 resistance will confirm short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 1.4289 resistance. However, sustained break of 1.3671 will invalidate our view.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. We’d expect strong support from 1.3671 key level to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.4721 resistance will indicate completion of such correction and turn outlook bullish for retesting 1.6587 high. However, sustained break of 1.3671 will invalidate our bullish view and would turn focus back to 1.1602 long term bottom.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5507; (P) 1.5538; (R1) 1.5595; More…

EUR/AUD is staying in consolidation from 1.5250 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, break of 1.5672 will bring stronger rebound. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.6827 to 1.5250 at 1.5852. On the downside, below 1.5423 should bring retest of 1.5250 low. Overall, down trend from 1.9799 is expected to resume after consolidation from 1.5250 completes.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6033 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4940; (P) 1.5007; (R1) 1.5065; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral as consolidation continues in range of 1.4791/5173. On the upside, break of 1.5173/5226 resistance zone will finally resume larger rise from 1.3624. On the downside, break of 1.4791 support will turn bias to the downside and extend the fall from 1.5173 to retest 1.4421 support.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term top has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to extend to retest 1.6587. The corrective structure of the price actions from 1.5226 is affirming this view. Above 1.5226 will target a test on 1.6587 key resistance. However, break of 1.4421 support will dampen our view and would drag EUR/AUD lower to retest key support zone around 1.3624.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4093; (P) 1.4131; (R1) 1.4187; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. Near term outlook stays bearish as the corrective decline from 1.6587 is still in progress. Below 1.4025 will target 1.3671 key support level. We’d expect downside to be contained there to bring reversal. Meanwhile, above 1.4251 minor resistance will turn focus back to 1.4271 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a consolidative pattern. 50% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.6587 at 1.4095 was already met. While further fall cannot be ruled out, we’d expect strong support above 1.3671 to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.4721 resistance will be the first sign of resumption of up trend from 1.1602 and target retesting of 1.6587 high first.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5759; (P) 1.5786; (R1) 1.5827; More…

No change in EUR/AUD. Price actions from 1.5250 are seen as a consolidation pattern. Upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.6827 to 1.5250 at 1.5852 to bring down trend resumption. Break of 1.5680 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 1.5250 low. However, sustained break of 1.5852 will bring further rally back to 1.6033 support turned resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6033 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6446; (P) 1.6491; (R1) 1.6523; More…

EUR/AUD is staying in consolidation from 1.6033 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, sustained break of 1.6586 will suggest that it’s at least in correction to the fall from 1.9799 to 1.6033. Further rise should then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.6033 at 1.7472. However, rejection by 1.6586 will maintain near term bearishness for another fall through 1.6033 later.

In the bigger picture, whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) might have completed at 1.9799. Deeper fall might be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 1.5816). Sustained break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. However, strong support from 55 week EMA (now at 1.6458) would neutralize the long term bearishness and argues that price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a sideway range pattern instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4933; (P) 1.4976; (R1) 1.5024; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, firm break of 1.4934 minor support will confirm short term topping, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, after hitting 1.5094 key resistance. In that case, deeper pull back would be seen to 55 day EMA (now at 1.4570). Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.5094 resistance will extend the rally from 1.3624 to next medium term fibonacci level at 1.5455.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction should be completed at 1.3624 after defending 1.3671 key support. Rise from 1.3642 is now expected to target 61.8% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.5455 and above. In any case, outlook will now stay cautiously bullish as long as 1.4309 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5647; (P) 1.5698; (R1) 1.5783; More….

EUR/AUD’s rally extends to as high as 1.5760 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 61.8% projection of 1.3624 to 1.5226 from 1.4949 at 1.5939 first. Break will target 100% projection at 1.6551, which is close to 1.6587 key resistance. On the downside, below 1.5612 will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.5458 support holds.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term top (2015 high) has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to extend to retest 1.6587. We’ll hold on to this bullish view as long as 1.5226 resistance turned support holds. Firm break of 1.6587 will resume long term rise from 1.1602 (2012 low).