Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5511; (P) 1.5595; (R1) 1.5751; More…

No change in EUR/AUD’s outlook as it’s still bounded in sideway consolidation from 1.5704 and intraday bias remains neutral. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 55 day EMA (now at 1.5332) to bring rebound. On the upside, decisive break of 1.5704 will resume larger rise from 1.4281. However, sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper correction towards 1.4965 resistance turned support.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.4281, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Further rise would be seen back to 1.6434 key resistance next. Break of 1.4965 resistance turned support is needed to indicate reversal. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5757; (P) 1.5825; (R1) 1.5868; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral at this point. Rise from 1.5271 is likely still in progress. ON the upside, break of 1.5888 resistance will extend the rally towards 1.6139/89 resistance zone. However, break of 1.5651 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.5271 to 1.5886 at 1.5651) will indicate near term reversal and turn bias back to the downside for 1.5271.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 1.6189 is a corrective move and has completed at 1.5271 already. Key support levels of 1.5153 and 38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6189 at 1.5209 were defended. And medium term rise from 1.3624 (2017 low) is still in progress. Break of 1.6189 will target 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5902; (P) 1.6003; (R1) 1.6065; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. As long as 1.5898 holds, larger rise from 1.5250 is still in favor to continue. Break of 1.6232 will turn bias to the upside for retesting 1.6434 high first. However, sustained break of 1.5898 will argue that rise from 1.5250 has completed, and turn near term outlook bearish for 1.5614 support first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.5250 medium term bottom is currently seen as a correction to the down trend from 1.9799 first. Stronger rise could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988 next. We’d tentatively expect strong resistance from there to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Meanwhile, break of 1.5898 support will indicate that the rebound has completed. Larger down trend from 1.9799 might be ready to resume through 1.5250 low.

EUR/AUD failed to break through 1.6308 support turned resistance and turned into sideway consolidation last week. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. With 1.6128 minor support intact, further rise remains in favor. Firm break of 1.6308 should confirm completion of whole fall from 1.6789 and target this resistance again. On the downside, break of 1.6128 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.5894 key support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5894 support holds, outlook remains bullish. Firm break of 1.6786 will resume up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Next upside target is 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488. However, sustained break of 1.5894 will have 55 week EMA (now at 1.6024) firmly taken out too. That should indicate medium term topping and target 1.5346 key support next.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) is still in progress for 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.5894 remains intact. However, firm break of 1.5894 will be an early sign of major topping and turn focus to 1.5346 key support for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5681; (P) 1.5724; (R1) 1.5788; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the upside for the moment. As noted before, corrective fall from 1.5976 has completed at 1.5254. Decisive break of 1.5749 should pave the way to retest 1.5976 high. On the downside, below 1.5605 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, it’s still early to confirm if rise from 1.4281 represents bullish trend reversal. But as long as 1.5271 support holds, such rally is in favor to continue. Break of 1.5976 will target 1.6434 key resistance next. On the other hand, firm break of 1.5271 will retain medium term bearishness instead.

EUR/AUD edged higher to 1.5871 last week, but failed to sustain above 38.2% retracement of 1.6827 to 1.5250 at 1.5852 again. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 1.5657 support will suggest rejection by 1.5852 fibonacci level. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.5418 support first. Break there should confirm completion of consolidation pattern from 1.5250. On the upside, break of 1.5871 will extend the near term rebound to 1.6033 key support turned resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6033 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound. However, firm break of 1.6033 will argue that such decline has completed, and turn focus to 1.6827 structural resistance for confirmation.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) should have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799 (2020 high). Fall from there is seen as a medium term to long term down leg as a long term down trend, or a sideway pattern. We’ll assess the odds again at a later stage.

EUR/AUD broke out of medium term range and jumped to as high as 1.5319 last week. However, the cross reversed and dropped sharply since then. Initial bias is neutral this week. first. As long as 1.4949 support holds, further rally is still in favor. Break of 1.5392 will resume medium term rise from 1.3624 and target 61.8% projection of 1.3624 to 1.5226 from 1.4949 at 1.5939 first. However, decisive break of 1.4949 will carry larger bearish implication and turn bias to the downside.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term top has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to extend to retest 1.6587. However, break of 1.4949 support will dampen our view and argue that rise from 1.3624 has completed. In that case, EUR/AUD would turn southward for retesting 1.3624 low.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3671 should confirm trend reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6160; (P) 1.6231; (R1) 1.6322; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the upside for this point. Firm break of 1.6308 support turned resistance should confirm completion of whole fall from 1.6789 and target this resistance again. On the downside, below 1.6128 will turn bias to the downside for another test on 1.5894 key support level instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5894 support holds, outlook remains bullish. Firm break of 1.6786 will resume up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Next upside target is 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488. However, sustained break of 1.5894 will have 55 week EMA (now at 1.6008) firmly taken out too. That should indicate medium term topping and target 1.5346 key support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6455; (P) 1.6514; (R1) 1.6555; More…

EUR/AUD’s consolidation from 1.6671 is in progress and intraday bias stays neutral. Rise from 1.6127 is expected to continue as long as 1.6398 support holds. Corrective fall from 1.7062 should have completed with three waves down to 1.6127 already. Above 1.6671 will target 1.6844 resistance to confirm this bullish case.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Break of 1.6844 resistance will argue that this up trend is ready to resume through 1.7062 high. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4726; (P) 1.4781; (R1) 1.4863; More…

EUR/AUD’s rise from 1.4421 continues today and reaches as high as 1.4883 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 1.5073 resistance. As noted before, correction from 1.5226 should have completed with three waves down to 1.4421 already. Break of 1.5037 will resume the rise from 1.3624 and target 61.8% projection of 1.3624 to 1.5226 from 1.4421 at 1.5411 next. On the downside, below 1.4701 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 1.4564 support holds.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to resume to retest 1.6587. The corrective structure of the fall from 1.5226 is affirming this view. Above 1.5226 will target a test on 1.6587 key resistance. However, another decline will dampen our view and would drag EUR/AUD lower to retest key support zone around 1.3624.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5712; (P) 1.5769; (R1) 1.5863; More…

EUR/AUD’s rebound from 1.5591 extends higher today and focus is now on channel resistance (now at 1.5929). Sustained break there will argue that whole fall from 1.6827 has completed. Stronger rebound would then be seen to 1.6144 support turned resistance next. Though, rejection by the channel resistance will retain near term bearishness, for another fall through 1.5591 in a later stage.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.9799 is developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6827 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5230; (P) 1.5303; (R1) 1.5343; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the downside at this point. Current down trend from 1.9799 is still in progress for target 100% projection of 1.6409 to 1.5591 from 1.5945 at 1.5127 next. On the upside, above 1.5408 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6033 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5614; (P) 1.5638; (R1) 1.5660; More….

EUR/AUD reaches as low as 1.5582 so far today as fall from 1.5888 resume extends. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 61.8% retracement of 1.5271 to 1.5888 at 1.5507. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.5271 low. On the upside, above 1.5656 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, the rebound from 1.5271 was somewhat weaker than expected. EUR/AUD also failed to sustain above 55 day EMA and hints on some underlying bearishness. Though, for now, as long as 1.5271 support holds, medium term rise from m 1.3624 (2017 low) is still mildly in favor to extend through 1.6189 high, to 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). Nevertheless, firm break of 1.5271 will complete a head and shoulder top pattern (ls: 1.5770, h: 1.6189, rs: 1.5888). That would indicate medium term reversal and turn outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6139; (P) 1.6195; (R1) 1.6252; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral at this point. Further rally is expected as long as 1.6053 support holds. Decisive break there of 61.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.5976 from 1.5254 at 1.6302 will resume larger rally from 1.4281 to 1.6389 fibonacci level and then 1.6434 resistance. However, firm break of 1.6053 will indicate rejection by 1.6302 and turn bias back to the downside for 1.5848 support.

In the bigger picture, the strong support from 55 week EMA (now at 1.5404) is raising the chance of bullish trend reversal. Focus is now on 1.6434 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.6389). Sustained break there should confirm that whole down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) has completed. Further rally should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.7691. However, rejection by this cluster resistance will make medium term outlook neutral at best.

EUR/AUD’s decline from 1.6357 resumed last week by breaking 1.5519 and reached as low as 1.5468. Initial bias stays is now on the downside this week for 1.5271/5313 cluster support zone next. On the upside, above 1.5581 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation. But recovery should be limited below 1.5781 resistance to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that up trend from 1.3624 (2017 low) is possibly completed at 1.6357, ahead of 1.6587 (2015 high). This is supported by bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Deeper decline is now in favor to 1.5271 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6357 at 1.5313). Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.4668. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.5781 resistance holds.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3624 key support should indicate long term reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6479; (P) 1.6556; (R1) 1.6597; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral at this point. For now, further rally will remain mildly in favor as long as 1.6368 support holds. Corrective fall from 1.6742 could have completed with three waves down to 1.6368. Above 1.6678 will target a retest on 1.6742 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). In case of another fall, strong support is expected around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound. Break of 1.7062 is in favor as a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5262; (P) 1.5377; (R1) 1.5446; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral as consolidation from 1.5704 is still extending. Downside should be contained by 55 day EMA (now at 1.5315) to bring rebound. On the upside, decisive break of 1.5704 resistance will resume whole rally from 1.4281. However, sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper decline to 1.4965 resistance turned support.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.4281, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Further rise would be seen back to 1.6434 key resistance next. Break of 1.4965 resistance turned support is needed to indicate reversal. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5781; (P) 1.5821; (R1) 1.5854; More…

intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 1.5657 support will suggest rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.6827 to 1.5250 at 1.5852. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.5418 support first. Break there should confirm completion of consolidation pattern from 1.5250. On the upside, break of 1.5871 will extend the near term rebound to 1.6033 key support turned resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6033 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound. However, firm break of 1.6033 will argue that such decline has completed, and turn focus to 1.6827 structural resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6107; (P) 1.6161; (R1) 1.6202; More…

Despite dipping to 1.6074, EUR/AUD quickly recovered and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, firm break of 1.6308 support turned resistance should confirm completion of whole fall from 1.6789 and target this resistance again. On the downside, break of 1.6074 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.5894 key support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5894 support holds, outlook remains bullish. Firm break of 1.6786 will resume up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Next upside target is 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488. However, sustained break of 1.5894 will have 55 week EMA (now at 1.6024) firmly taken out too. That should indicate medium term topping and target 1.5346 key support next.

EUR/AUD’s rebound and break of 1.5849 suggests that whole pattern from 1.5250 is resuming. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week. Sustained trading above 38.2% retracement of 1.6827 to 1.5250 at 1.5852 will bring further rise to 1.6033 key support turned resistance. On the downside, though, break of 1.5657 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.5418 support first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6033 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound. However, firm break of 1.6033 will argue that such decline has completed, and turn focus to 1.6827 structural resistance for confirmation.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) should have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799 (2020 high). Fall from there is seen as a medium term to long term down leg as a long term down trend, or a sideway pattern. We’ll assess the odds again at a later stage.