EUR/AUD stayed in consolidation below 1.5976 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first but further rise is expected with 1.5614 support intact. On the upside, break of 1.5976 will resume the rise from 1.5250 to 1.6033 key support turned resistance next. Sustained break there will argue that longer term trend has reversed, and target 1.6827 resistance.

In the bigger picture, outlook stays bearish with 1.6033 support turned resistance intact for now. Fall from 1.9799, as a correction to to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is still in favor to resume through 1.5250 later. However, firm break of 1.6033 will argue that such decline has completed. Stronger rebound would then be seen 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) should have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799 (2020 high). Fall from there is seen as a medium term to long term down leg as a long term down trend, or a sideway pattern. We’ll assess the odds again at a later stage.

EUR/AUD’s rise from 1.5254 resumed by breaking through 1.5650 resistance last week. The development affirmed the case that corrective fall from 1.5976 has completed at 1.5254. Initial bias is now on the upside this week for 1.5749 resistance first. Break there will bring retest of 1.5976 high. For now, further rally will remain in favor as long as 1.5512 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, it’s still early to confirm if rise from 1.4281 represents bullish trend reversal. But as long as 1.5271 support holds, such rally is in favor to continue. Break of 1.5976 will target 1.6434 key resistance next. On the other hand, firm break of 1.5271 will retain medium term bearishness instead.

In the longer term picture, focus stays on 55 month EMA (now at 1.5590). Sustained trading above there will raise the chance of bullish trend reversal, and at least bring further rally to 1.6434 cluster resistance, 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 (2020 high) to 1.4281 at 1.6389. However, rejection by 55 month EMA will suggest that down trend from 1.9799 is still in progress for another low below 1.4281.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5377; (P) 1.5445; (R1) 1.5498; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, firm break of 1.5254/71 will carry larger bearish implication and resume the fall from 1.5976. On the upside, above 1.5650 will resume the rebound to 1.5749 resistance.

In the bigger picture, it’s still early to confirm if rise from 1.4281 represents bullish trend reversal. But as long as 1.5271 support holds, such rally is in favor to continue. Break of 1.5976 will target 1.6434 key resistance next. On the other hand, firm break of 1.5271 will retain medium term bearishness instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4020; (P) 1.4102; (R1) 1.4148; More…

A temporary top is formed at 1.4183 in EUR/AUD and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Some consolidation would be seen but downside should be contained by 1.3874/4014 support zone and bring another rally. As noted before, we’re favoring the case of medium term trend reversal defending key support level at 1.3671, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD Above 1.4183 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.4289 resistance. Sustained break there will affirm our bullish view and target 1.4721 key resistance next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. We’d expect strong support from 1.3671 key level to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.4721 resistance will indicate completion of such correction and turn outlook bullish for retesting 1.6587 high. However, sustained break of 1.3671 will invalidate our bullish view and would turn focus back to 1.1602 long term bottom.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6130; (P) 1.6172; (R1) 1.6214; More…

Upside momentum in EUR/AUD is not too convincing as seen in 4 hour MACD. But further rise is still in favor with 1.6059 minor support intact, for retest 1.6434 high. With 1.5898 support intact, larger rise from 1.5250 is still in progress, and break of 1.6434 will confirm resumption, for 1.6988 fibonacci level. On the downside, break of 1.6059 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.5898 structural support instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.5250 medium term bottom is currently seen as a correction to the down trend from 1.9799 first. Stronger rise could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988 next. We’d tentatively expect strong resistance from there to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Meanwhile, break of 1.5898 support will indicate that the rebound has completed. Larger down trend from 1.9799 might be ready to resume through 1.5250 low.

EUR/AUD dropped to 1.5423 last week, but stabilized there and recovered. Initial bias is turned neutral this week and outlook is unchanged. Consolidation pattern from 1.5250 low might extend further. On the downside, break of 1.5423 will target 1.5355 support, and then 1.5250. On the upside, break of 1.5672 resistance will bring stronger rise. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.6827 to 1.5250 at 1.5852 to bring larger down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6033 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) could have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799. The development suggests that long term range trading is extending with another medium term down leg. Sustained trading below 55 month EMA (now at 1.5818) now further affirms this case could bring deeper decline to 1.1602/3624 support zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5567; (P) 1.5600; (R1) 1.5639; More…

With 1.5706 resistance intact, further decline is expected in EUR/AUD. Current down trend from 1.9799 should target 61.8% projection of 1.6409 to 1.5591 from 1.5945 at 1.5439. On the upside, above 1.5706 minor resistance will delay the bearish case, and extend the consolidation from 1.5591 with another rise.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6827 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5863; (P) 1.5903; (R1) 1.5956; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral at this point. Price actions from 1.6189 are forming a corrective pattern. Below 1.5837 will extend the leg fro 1.6139 and target 1.5773 support and below. But we’d expect strong support above 1.5621 to complete the pattern and bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.5966 support turned resistance will turn bias to the upside for 1.6139 resistance.

In the bigger picture, while there is bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, there is no clear sign of reversal yet. Current rally from 1.3624 could extend to 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). Nonetheless, we’d expect further loss of upside momentum, and strong resistance from 1.6587 to limit upside and bring reversal. On the downside, sustained break of 1.5621 support should confirm reversal and turn outlook bearish for 1.5153 support and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5599; (P) 1.5655; (R1) 1.5687; More….

Despite breaching 1.5633 minor support, EUR/AUD quickly recovered, as supported by 4 hour 55 EMA. Intraday bias stays neutral and another rise is still in favor. Sustained break of 1.5770 resistance will confirm resumption of medium term rise from 1.3264. In that case, EUR/AUD should target 1.6587 key long term resistance. However, below 1.5633 minor support minor support will dampen this bullish case and turn bias to the downside.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 1.3624 is not completed yet. Break of 1.5770 will extend the rise to retest 1.6587 (2015 high). However, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, sustained break of 1.4949 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.5770 at 1.4950) will indicate medium term reversal. And there is prospect of retesting 1.3624 low in that bearish case.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4992; (P) 1.5099; (R1) 1.5303; More…

EUR/AUD’s rebound from 1.4138 resumed by breaking through 1.5053 resistance. Intraday bias is back on the upside with focus on 1.5354 cluster resistance (100% projection of 1.4318 to 1.5053 from 1.4597 at 1.5332. Rejection by this level will maintain medium term bearishness for another fall through 1.4138 low at a later stage. But firm break of 1.5332/54 will argue that the larger trend is reversing. Next target is 161.8% projection at 1.5786 first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5354 support turned resistance holds, larger down trend form 1.9799 (2020 high) is still expected to continue. On resumption, next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). However, firm break of 1.5354 will indicate medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 1.6434 key resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6167; (P) 1.6209; (R1) 1.6243; More…

No change in EUR/AUD and intraday bias remains neutral for consolidation from 1.6033. Further decline is expected as long as 1.6772 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.6033 will resume the fall from 1.9799 and target next support level at 1.5346. On the upside, however, break of 1.6772 resistance will confirm short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) might have completed at 1.9799. Deeper fall could be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. This will remain the preferred case now as long as 1.7194 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6183; (P) 1.6268; (R1) 1.6314; More…

EUR/AUD’s fall from 1.6786 accelerates to as low as 1.6177 so far. The break 1.6247 support dampens original bullish view. Rise from 1.5683 could have completed at 1.6786 after breaching 1.6765. Intraday bias is now on the downside for 1.5894 support. Break will target 1.5346 support next. On the upside, above 1.6351 minor resistance will turn bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains bullish and up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is still in progress. Prior support from 55 week EMA indicates medium term bullishness. Next upside target is 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488. In any case, break of 1.5894 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5957; (P) 1.5999; (R1) 1.6024; More…

EUR/AUD is staying in consolidation from 1.5963 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Further fall is expected with 1.6071 minor resistance intact. Break of 1.5963 will target 1.5894/5906 key support zone. On the upside, above 1.6071 will turn bias back to the upside for recovery.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5894 support holds, outlook remains bullish. Firm break of 1.6786 will resume up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Next upside target is 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488. However, sustained break of 1.5894 will have 55 week EMA (now at 1.6077) firmly taken out too. That should indicate medium term topping and target 1.5346 key support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5860; (P) 1.5924; (R1) 1.6007; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral for the moment. Further rally will remain in favor as long as 1.5776 support holds. Above 1.6223 will resume whole rise from 1.5354 to 1.6434 resistance first. However, break of 1.5776 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.5559 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.5354 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.5250 low. Further rise cannot be ruled out, but even in that case, strong resistance should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988. Larger down trend from 1.9799 is in favor to extend through 1.5250 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6670; (P) 1.6754; (R1) 1.6806; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 1.6538 will resume whole decline form 1.9799. Also, sustained trading below 1.6597 key support will carry larger bearish implication and target 1.5962 support next. On the upside, break of 1.7194 resistance should confirm short term bottoming and turn near term outlook bullish.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.6597 key cluster support, (2015 high and 38.2% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.6668, 55 week EMA (now at 1.6532). Strong rebound from current level will retain medium term bullishness. Larger up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) would extend through 1.9799 high. However, sustained break of 1.6597 will suggest bearish reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.4733.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5938; (P) 1.6014; (R1) 1.6109; More…

EUR/AUD recovers further today but such recovery is seen as a corrective move. Stronger rise cannot be ruled out but upside should be limited below 1.6231 resistance to bring another fall. Decline from 1.6448 is seen as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.6765 high. Break of 1.5894 will target 1.5683 support and below.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will still remain bullish. Up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal and turn outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6234; (P) 1.6319; (R1) 1.6379; More…

EUR/AUD’s fall from 1.7180 is in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside for 1.5996 support. Strong support could be seen there to bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.6117 minor resistance will turn intraday bias remains neutral first.

In the bigger picture, outlook is mixed up by the deeper than expected fall from 1.7180. Yet as long as 1.5996 support holds, up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage. Firm break of 1.7180 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.7062 from 1.5996 at 1.7715.

EUR/AUD’s rebound from 1.4281 short term bottom extended further to 1.4880 last week. But a temporary top was formed with subsequent retreat. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, above 1.4880 will resume the rebound towards 1.5396 resistance. On the downside, however, break of 1.4564 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.4281 low.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.9799 is still in progress. Break of 1.4318 low will target 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.5396 resistance holds.

In the longer term picture, fall from 1.9799 (2020 high) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Deeper fall should be seen to 1.3624 support. Decisive break there would pave the way back to 1.1602 (2012 low). This will remain the favored case as long as 55 month EMA (now at 1.5588) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5996; (P) 1.6042; (R1) 1.6103; More…

EUR/AUD is staying in consolidation from 1.6128 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Overall, near term outlook stays bullish as long as 1.5773 support holds. On the upside, break of 1.6128 will resume the rise from 1.5250, as a correction to fall from 1.9799, to 1.6827 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that a medium term bottom is formed at 1.5250, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Rise from 1.5250 is seen as a correction to the down trend from 1.9799 first. Stronger rise would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988 next. This will remain the favored case for now, as long as 1.5614 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5635; (P) 1.5695; (R1) 1.5757; More….

EUR/AUD’s rally continues today and breach of 1.5770 resistance suggests that medium term rise from 1.3264 is resuming. Intraday bias remains on the upside. Sustained trading above 1.5770 will pave the way to 1.6587 key long term support. Nonetheless, below 1.5633 minor support will dampen this bullish case and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 1.3624 is not completed yet. Break of 1.5770 will extend the rise to retest 1.6587 (2015 high). However, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, sustained break of 1.4949 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.5770 at 1.4950) will indicate medium term reversal. And there is prospect of retesting 1.3624 low in that bearish case.