EUR/AUD dipped to 1.5743 last week but recovered strongly since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week and we’d favor further rise ahead. On the upside, decisive break of 1.6060 resistance should confirm that decline from 1.6765 has completed. Further rally should then be seen to retest 1.6765 high. On the downside, however, break of 1.5721 will extend the decline to 1.5346 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will remain bullish. Uptrend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) is still in progress for 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection of 1.1602 to 1.6587 from 1.3624 at 1.8069. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.5346 remains intact.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4726; (P) 1.4781; (R1) 1.4863; More…

EUR/AUD’s rise from 1.4421 continues today and reaches as high as 1.4883 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 1.5073 resistance. As noted before, correction from 1.5226 should have completed with three waves down to 1.4421 already. Break of 1.5037 will resume the rise from 1.3624 and target 61.8% projection of 1.3624 to 1.5226 from 1.4421 at 1.5411 next. On the downside, below 1.4701 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 1.4564 support holds.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to resume to retest 1.6587. The corrective structure of the fall from 1.5226 is affirming this view. Above 1.5226 will target a test on 1.6587 key resistance. However, another decline will dampen our view and would drag EUR/AUD lower to retest key support zone around 1.3624.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6235; (P) 1.6311; (R1) 1.6362; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral as range trading continues. On the downside, firm break of 1.6211 support will resume the whole decline from 1.6742, as the third leg of the correction from 1.7062. On the upside, sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 1.6381) will resume the rebound from 1.6211 instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). In case of deeper fall, strong support is expected around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound. Break of 1.7062 is in favor as a later stage.

EUR/AUD’s extended rebound last week suggests short term bottoming at 1.6211, on bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD. Intraday bias stays mildly on the upside this week. Sustained trading above 55 D EMA (now at 1.6412) will argue that fall from 1.6742 has completed, and turn near term outlook bullish. On the downside, though, below 1.6322 minor support will bring retest of 1.6211 support instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). In case of deeper fall, strong support is expected around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound. Break of 1.7062 is in favor as a later stage.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.9799 (2020 high) are seen as a long term decline at the same scale as the rise from 1.1602 (2012 low). Rebound from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg. As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.5962) holds, this second leg could still extend higher. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will open up the bearish case for extending the decline through 1.4281 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4727; (P) 1.4807; (R1) 1.4860; More…

EUR/AUD’s pull back from 1.5226 extended lower and broke 38.2% retracement of 1.3980 to 1.5226 at 1.4750. But at this point, we’d still expect strong support from 1.4669, close to 55 day EMA at 1.4685, to contain downside and bring rebound. Above 1.4894 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.5226 high. However, firm break of 1.4669 will argue that rise from 1.3642 is completed and bring deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction should be completed at 1.3624 after defending 1.3671 key support. Rise from 1.3642 is now expected to target 61.8% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.5455. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.6587. In any case, outlook will now stay cautiously bullish as long as 1.4669 support holds. Break of 1.4669 will dampen the bullish view and would at least bring deeper fall back to 55 week EMA (now at 1.4539).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6162; (P) 1.6219; (R1) 1.6282; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral at this point. Further rally is expected as long as 1.6053 support holds. Decisive break of 61.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.5976 from 1.5254 at 1.6302 will resume larger rally from 1.4281 to 1.6389 fibonacci level and then 1.6434 resistance. However, firm break of 1.6053 will indicate rejection by 1.6302 and turn bias back to the downside for 1.5848 support.

In the bigger picture, the strong support from 55 week EMA (now at 1.5404) is raising the chance of bullish trend reversal. Focus is now on 1.6434 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.6389). Sustained break there should confirm that whole down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) has completed. Further rally should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.7691. However, rejection by this cluster resistance will make medium term outlook neutral at best.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4962; (P) 1.5045; (R1) 1.5180; More…

EUR/AUD’s rally from 1.4281 is extending and intraday bias stays on the upside. Firm break of 61.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.4965 from 1.4716 at 1.5139 will target 100% projection at 1.5400, which is close to 1.5396 key resistance. On the downside, break of 1.4716 support is needed to indicate completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise will remain in favor in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.9799 is still in progress. Break of 1.4318 low will target 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.5396 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5719; (P) 1.5745; (R1) 1.5778; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral at this point. Risk stays on the downside with 1.5849 resistance intact. Consolidation pattern from 1.5250 might have completed just missing 38.2% retracement of 1.6827 to 1.5250 at 1.5852. Below 1.5665 will target 1.5418 support first. Sustained break there will solidify this bearish case and target a retest of 1.5250 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6033 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7057; (P) 1.7103; (R1) 1.7189; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 1.7003 will extend the fall from 1.9799 to 1.6085/6593 support zone. On the upside, though, break of 1.7350 minor resistance will suggest short term bottoming. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is in progress and further rally would be seen to 2.1127 (2008 high) and possibly to 161.8% projection of 1.1602 to 1.6597 from 1.3524 at 2.1706. On the downside, for now, touching of 1.6597 resistance turned support (2015 high) is needed to indicate medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4889; (P) 1.4941; (R1) 1.5006; More…

EUR/AUD’s fall from 1.5277 resumed by breaking through 1.4882 temporary low, and intraday bias is back on the downside. Corrective rebound from 1.4138 should have completed at 1.5277, ahead of 1.5354 resistance. Break of 1.4597 support will bring retest of 1.4318 low. On the upside, above 1.5008 minor resistance will mix up the outlook and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5354 support turned resistance holds, larger down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) is still expected to continue. On resumption, next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). However, firm break of 1.5354 will indicate medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 1.6434 key resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4720; (P) 1.4761; (R1) 1.4825; More…

EUR/AUD’s rebound from 1.4281 extends higher today and intraday bias is back on the upside. Stronger rally would be seen back towards 1.5396 resistance. On the downside, below 1.4564 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.4281 low instead.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.9799 is still in progress. Break of 1.4318 low will target 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.5396 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5229; (P) 1.5284; (R1) 1.5317; More….

EUR/AUD’s decline from 1.5770 extends lower and focus is now on 1.5226 key support level. As long as this support holds, further rise will still be in favor. Break of 1.5430 minor resistance will now indicate completion of the correction from 1.5770 and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.5770. However, sustained break of 1.5226 will indicate larger reversal and target 1.4949 support next.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term top (2015 high) has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to extend to retest 1.6587. We’ll hold on to this bullish view as long as 1.5226 resistance turned support holds. Firm break of 1.6587 will resume long term rise from 1.1602 (2012 low). However, sustained break of 1.5226 will indicate trend reversal and target 1.3624 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5253; (P) 1.5286; (R1) 1.5344; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral first and further rally is expected with 1.5047 support intact. Firm break of 1.5416 will carry larger bullish implication. Next target is 161.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.4965 from 1.4716 at 1.5823. However, break of 1.5047 will turn bias back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.4885).

In the bigger picture, current development raises the chance of medium term bottoming at at 1.4281, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Firm break of 1.5396 will bring stronger rally back to 1.6434 key resistance next. Nevertheless, rejection by 1.5396 will maintain medium term bearishness for another fall through 1.4281 at a later stage.

EUR/AUD’s consolidation from 1.5996 continued last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. While another recovery cannot be ruled out, further decline is expected as long as 1.6211 resistance holds. Break of 1.5996 will resume larger fall to 1.5846 support next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) only. Strong support is still expected between 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound. Break of 1.6148 resistance will argue that the correction has completed.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.9799 (2020 high) are seen as a long term decline at the same scale as the rise from 1.1602 (2012 low). Rebound from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg. As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.5970) holds, this second leg could still extend higher. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will open up the bearish case for extending the decline through 1.4281 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4581; (P) 1.4661; (R1) 1.4732; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral with focus on 1.4712 resistance. Sustained break there will turn bias to the upside, for stronger rebound back to 1.5396 resistance. On the downside, firm break of 1.4318 low will resume larger down trend to medium term projection level at 1.3623.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.9799 is still in progress. Break of 1.4318 low will target 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.5396 resistance holds.

EUR/AUD’s steep decline last week suggests that rebound from 1.4318 has completed as a corrective move to 1.5396, after rejection by 1.5354 resistance turned support. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 1.4759 support first. Sustained break there will affirm this bearish case and bring retest of 1.4318 low. On the upside, above 1.5043 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 1.5354 support turned resistance, as well as 55 week EMA (now at 1.5398), maintain medium term bearishness. That is, larger down trend from 1.9799 is not completed yet. Break of 1.4318 low will target 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.5396 resistance holds.

In the longer term picture, fall from 1.9799 (2020 high) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Deeper fall should be seen to 1.3624 support. Decisive break there would pave the way back to 1.1602 (2012 low). This will remain the favored case as long as 55 month EMA (now at 1.5694) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5930; (P) 1.5966; (R1) 1.6003; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.6060 temporary top is extending. At this point, we’re favoring the case that decline from 1.6765 has completed at 1.5721 already, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Risk will stay on the upside s long as 1.5721 support holds. On the upside, break of 1.6060 should confirm this bullish view and target a test on 1.6765 high. On the downside, break of 1.5721 will extend the decline to 1.5346 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will remain bullish. Uptrend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5012; (P) 1.5053; (R1) 1.5115; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for consolidation in range of 1.4791/5173. On the upside, break of 1.5173/5226 resistance zone will finally resume larger rise from 1.3624. In that case, EUR/AUD will target 1.5644 resistance first. On the downside, break of 1.4791 support will turn bias to the downside and extend the fall from 1.5173 to retest 1.4421 support.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term top has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to extend to retest 1.6587. The corrective structure of the price actions from 1.5226 is affirming this view. Above 1.5226 will target a test on 1.6587 key resistance. However, break of 1.4421 support will dampen our view and would drag EUR/AUD lower to retest key support zone around 1.3624.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5530; (P) 1.5566; (R1) 1.5604; More…

EUR/AUD’s break of 1.5606 resistance turn intraday bias to the upside. It’s now in the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.5250. Further rise would be seen to 1.5689 resistance first. break will target 38.2% retracement of 1.6827 to 1.5250 at 1.5852. On the downside, below 1.5526 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6033 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4839; (P) 1.4918; (R1) 1.4971; More…

EUR/AUD lost some upside momentum a after hitting 1.4997. But intraday bias stays on the upside with 1.4813 minor support intact. As noted before, pull back from 1.5226 should have completed at 1.4625, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.5226 at 1.4614. Further rally should be seen to retest 1.5226 next. On the downside, though, below 1.4813 resistance turned support will turn bias to the downside for 1.4625 again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction should be completed at 1.3624 after defending 1.3671 key support. Rise from 1.3642 would extend to 61.8% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.5455. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.6587. However, sustained break of 1.4669 support will dampen this bullish view. We’ll assess the outlook later after looking at the structure and depth of the pull back.