Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6552; (P) 0.6608; (R1) 0.6641; More…

AUD/USD’s fall from 0.6870 continues today and intraday bias stays on the downside. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.6269 to 0.6870 at 0.6497. Sustained break there will argue that whole rebound from 0.6269 has completed, and bring deeper fall to this support. On the upside, above 0.6632 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7551; (P) 0.7568; (R1) 0.7593; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral for the moment. While corrective rise from 0.7411 could extend, we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7144 at 0.7688 to limit upside and bring decline resumption eventually. On the downside, below 0.7502 minor support will argue that the corrective rise is completed and bring retest of 0.7411 low. Firm break there will resume the fall from 0.8135 and target cluster support at 0.7328 (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326).

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. Break of 0.7500 key support suggests that such correction is completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. In case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption eventually.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6863; (P) 0.6919; (R1) 0.6968; More…

AUD/USD rebounds notably today but stays below 0.7045 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 0.7045 will resume the rebound from 0.6680 to 0.7282 key resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 0.6858 minor support will argue that the rebound is over. Intraday bias will then be back on the downside for retesting 0.6680 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) is seen more as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Or it could be a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7282 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6206; (P) 0.6261; (R1) 0.6352; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. Further decline is expected as long as 0.6362 support turned resistance holds. Firm break of 100% projection of 0.7660 to 0.6680 from 0.7135 at 0.6155 will target 138.2% projection at 0.5781. Nevertheless, break of 0.6362 will indicate short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, and bring stronger rebound back to 0.6539 resistance.

In the bigger picture, down trend form 0.8006 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 0.6680 support turned resistance holds. Next target is 0.5506 low. Medium term momentum will now be closely monitored to gauge the chance of break of 0.5506.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7539; (P) 0.7559; (R1) 0.7578; More…

AUD/USD’s correction from 0.7490 is still in progress and intraday bias stays neutral first. We’d continue to expect recovery to be limited by 0.7631 resistance and bring fall resumption. As noted before, rise from 0.7150 has completed at 0.7740 already. Below 0.7490 will turn bias back to the downside and target 0.7144/7158 support zone. However, break of 0.7631 resistance will dampen our bearish view and turn bias back to the upside for 0.7740 instead.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seek to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8185) and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6919; (P) 0.6956; (R1) 0.6982; More…

A short term top should be formed at 0.7031 already. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside for 1.6838 support first. Break will target 0.6754 near term structural support next. On the upside, though , break of 0.7031 will resume the corrective rebound from 0.6670 to 0.7082 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7082 resistance intact, there is no clear confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7506).

AUD/USD turned into consolidation above 0.6864 last week and recovered. But near term outlook remains unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week for more consolidations first. In case of stronger recovery, upside should be limited by 0.6988 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.6864 resume the fall from 0.7295 to 161.8% projection of 0.7295 to 0.7003 from 0.7205 at 0.6733, which is close to 0.6722 low.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 low and then 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6579; (P) 0.6611; (R1) 0.6647; More…

Further decline remains mildly on the downside with 0.6664 minor resistance intact, in spite of today’s recovery. On the downside, firm break of 0.6563 will resume larger decline from 0.7156, and bring deeper decline through 0.6546 fibonacci level to 61.8% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6563 from 0.6804 at 0.6438 next. On the upside, break 0.6664 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside to extend the consolidation pattern with another rising leg.

In the bigger picture, as long as 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546 holds, the decline from 0.7156 is seen as a correction to rally from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. Another rise should still be seen through 0.7156 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6546 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7249; (P) 0.7264; (R1) 0.7292; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral first, with focus on 0.7288 support turned resistance. Decisive break there should confirm short term bottoming at 0.7105. Stronger rise should then be seen to 0.7425 resistance. Break there will argue that whole corrective fall from 0.8006 has completed. In case of another fall through 0.7105, we’d continue to look for strong support from 0.6991/7051 support zone to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5506 medium term bottom could have completed at 0.8006, after failing 0.8135 key resistance. Correction from there could target 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051). We’d look for strong support from there to bring rebound. However, sustained break of this level would argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed. Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.6461.

AUD/USD dropped to as low as 0.7041 last week as down trend from 0.8135 resumed. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 61.8% projection of 0.7676 to 0.7084 from 0.7314 at 0.6948 next. On the upside, break of 0.7096 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.8135 is tentatively treated as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). However, break of 0.7500 support turned resistance will argue that the corrective pattern from 0.6826 is going to extend with another rising leg before completion.

In the longer term picture, the corrective structure of rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) to 0.8135, and the failure to break 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.6826 at 0.8451, carry bearish implications. AUD/USD was also rejected by 55 month EMA. Now, the down trend from 1.1079 is in favor to extend. On break of 0.6826, next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6509; (P) 0.6531; (R1) 0.6560; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays mildly on the downside at this point. Decisive break of 0.6480 support will argue that is ready to resume through 0.6442. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 0.6870 to 0.6442 from 0.6643 at 0.6378. For now, risk will stay mildly on the downside as long as 0.6643 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

AUD/USD rose further to 0.6569 last week but reversed from there. The development suggests short term topping at 0.6569, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, ahead of 0.6670 key resistance. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for 0.6235 support. Break should indicate completion of whole rise from 0.5506 and target 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.6569 at 0.6163. On the upside, break of 0.6569 will extend the rebound to 0.6670 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in favor to extend. 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to 0.4773 (2001 low). On the upside, however, sustained break of 0.6607 will suggest medium term bottoming and turn focus to 0.7031 resistance next.

In the longer term picture, down trend from 1.1079 (2011) is still in progress. It’s a bit early to just the depth of the down trend. But sustained break of 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 could pave the way to 100% projection at 0.3882.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7072; (P) 0.7098; (R1) 0.7133; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. Some consolidations could be seen below 0.7183. But further rise is expected as long as 0.6963 support holds. On the upside, break of 0.7183 will target long term EMA level at 0.7311 next.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7311). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6763). However, sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7960; (P) 0.7995; (R1) 0.8033; More…

AUD/USD’s break of 0.8038 indicates resumption of rise from 0.7500. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.8124 resistance. Break there will resume whole medium term rebound from 0.6826 and target key fibonacci level at 0.8451. On the downside, break of 0.7956 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that medium term rebound from 0.6826 is still in progress and could be resuming. Such rise could target 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.6826 (2016 low) at 0.8451. As such rise is seen as a corrective move, we’d expect strong resistance from 0.8451 to limit upside and bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7658; (P) 0.7689; (R1) 0.7740; More…

AUD/USD’s rise resumed by taking out 0.7695 and reaches as high as 0.7731 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.7777 resistance next. Bearish divergence condition remains in 4 hour MACD. Thus, we’d expect strong resistance from 0.7777/7833 resistance zone to limit upside and bring near term reversal. On the downside, break of 0.7605 support will indicate that rise from 0.7158 has completed already and turn bias back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 0.7517) first.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seek to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8205) and above.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6564; (P) 0.6606; (R1) 0.6651; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays on the upside for the moment. Fall from 0.6870 could have completed with three waves down to 0.6361. Further rally would be seen to 100% projection of 0.6361 to 0.6585 from 0.6464 at 0.6688 next. On the downside, below 0.6567 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But further rally is expected as long as 0.6464 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which could still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6715; (P) 0.6728; (R1) 0.6749; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as consolidation form 0.6677 is extending. On the downside, break of 0.6677 will resume larger down trend to 100% projections of 0.7295 to 0.6831 from 0.7082 at 0.6618. On the upside, above 0.6822 will bring stronger rebound instead.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Firm break of 0.6826 (2016 low) should confirm this bearish view. Further fall should be seen to 0.6008 (2008 low) next. On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7309; (P) 0.7326; (R1) 0.7358; More…

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.7201 short term bottom extends to as high as 0.7358 so far today. 0.7346 support turned resistance is broken without sign of topping yet. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 0.7452 key resistance next. On the downside, below 0.7295 minor support will argue that the rebound is finished and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there would extend to have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). But we’ll look at downside momentum to assess at a later stage. On the upside, break of 0.7452 resistance, however, will indicate medium term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. In that case, a correction should be seen first, with stronger rebound would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7201 at 0.7558. The down trend from 0.8135 will resume after the correction completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7713; (P) 0.7726; (R1) 0.7752; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside for retesting 0.7819 resistance. Firm break there will resume larger up trend from 0.5506. Next near term target is 61.8% projection of 0.6991 to 0.7819 from 0.7563 at 0.8075. On the downside, break of 0.7650 minor support will delay the bullish case and extend the correction from 0.7819.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.70202 accelerated higher last week. The development argues that a medium term bottom might be in place. Further rise is expected this week as long as 0.7159 minor support holds. Firm break of 0.7314 resistance will confirm this bullish case and target 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7020 at 0.7446 next. However, sustained break of 0.7159 will turn focus back to 0.7020 low instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7314 resistance holds, fall from 0.8135 is tentatively treated as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7314 will suggest that whole decline from 0.8135 has completed. And, the corrective pattern from 0.6826 (2016 low) is extending with another rising leg towards 0.8135 before completion.

In the longer term picture, the corrective structure of rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) to 0.8135, and the failure to break 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.6826 at 0.8451, carry bearish implications. AUD/USD was also rejected by 55 month EMA. Now, the down trend from 1.1079 is in favor to extend. On break of 0.6826, next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.