Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7744; (P) 0.7763; (R1) 0.7784; More…

AUD/USD’s consolidation from 0.7819 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral first. Further rise is expected with 0.7641 support intact. On the upside, break of 0.7819 will resume larger up trend from 0.5506 to 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.7413 from 0.6991 at 0.8170. However, break of 0.7641 will indicate short term topping, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for deeper correction to 0.7461 support.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7658; (P) 0.7689; (R1) 0.7740; More…

AUD/USD’s rise resumed by taking out 0.7695 and reaches as high as 0.7731 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.7777 resistance next. Bearish divergence condition remains in 4 hour MACD. Thus, we’d expect strong resistance from 0.7777/7833 resistance zone to limit upside and bring near term reversal. On the downside, break of 0.7605 support will indicate that rise from 0.7158 has completed already and turn bias back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 0.7517) first.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seek to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8205) and above.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6732; (P) 0.6755; (R1) 0.6774; More…

AUD/USD’s decline resumes after brief consolidations and intraday bias is back on the downside. Fall form 0.7031 is expected to retest 0.6670 low next. On the upside, above 0.6777 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But recovery should be limited below 0.6849 support turned resistance to bring another fall.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7082 resistance intact, there is no clear confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7484).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7524; (P) 0.7603; (R1) 0.7648; More…

AUD/USD’s fall from 0.7740 continues today and reaches as low as 0.7542 so far. Intraday bias remains on the downside for the moment. As noted before, rebound from 0.7158 has completed at 0.7740 already. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA (now at 0.7566) will pave the way to lower side of medium term range at 0.7144/7158. On the upside, above 0.7635 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seek to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8164) and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7391; (P) 0.7403; (R1) 0.7419; More…

AUD/USD is staying in consolidation from 0.7309 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, above 0.7483 resistance will bring stronger rebound. But upside should be limited below 0.7676 resistance to bring larger fall resumption eventually. On the downside, break of 0.7309 and sustained trading below 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) will extend the fall from 0.8135 to 0.7158 support next.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6474; (P) 0.6502; (R1) 0.6526; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.6527) will argue that fall from 0.6870 has completed, and bring further rally to 0.6643 resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 0.6440 minor support will indicate rejection by 55 D EMA and retain near term bearishness. Retest of 0.6361 low should be seen next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which is still in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7968; (P) 0.7992; (R1) 0.8028; More…

No change in AUD/USD’s outlook as it’s staying in consolidation below 0.8124. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. And with 0.7807 support intact, outlook stays bullish for another rally. Above 0.8124 will target 100% projection of 0.6826 to 0.7833 from 0.7328 at 0.8335 next. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, firm break of 0.7807 will indicate near term reversal and turn bias back to the downside for 0.7328 key support.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is still in progress. At this point, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we’ll continue to treat such rebound as a corrective pattern. But in any case, break of 55 month EMA (now at 0.8090) will target 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451. Break of 0.7807 support is needed to to be the first sign of completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise is now in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6755; (P) 0.6796; (R1) 0.6835; More…

No change in AUD/USD’s outlook as rise from 0.6457 is still in progress. Intraday bias stays on the upside for the moment. Decisive break of 0.6817 should confirm near term bullish reversal, and pave the way to retest 0.7156 resistance next. On the downside though, below 0.6736 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.6817 resistance holds, the decline from 0.7156, as well as the down trend from 0.8006 (2021) are still in favor to continue through 0.6169 (2022 low) at a later stage. However, firm break of 0.6817 will indicate that fall from 0.7156 has completed in a three-wave corrective structure. Such development will argue that rise from 0.6169 is ready to resume through 0.7156, and add credence to the case that whole down trend from 0.8006 has completed already.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6698; (P) 0.6720; (R1) 0.6761; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 0.6678 temporary low. Upside of recovery should be limited by 0.6777 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, decisive break of 0.6670 low will confirm resumption of larger down trend. Next target will be 0.6008 key support. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.6777 will indicate short term bottoming and extend the consolidation pattern form 0.6670 with another near term rise.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). This will remain the favor case as long as 0.7031 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6961; (P) 0.7003; (R1) 0.7039; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral first, as it recovered after breaching 0.6991 key support. On the downside, sustained break of 0.6991 will confirm resumptions of whole down trend from 0.8006. Next target is 100% projection of 0.7555 to 0.6992 from 0.7313 at 0.6750. However, break of 0.7089 minor resistance will mix up the near term outlook.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on 0.6991 key structural support. Sustained break there will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461. Meanwhile, strong rebound from 0.6991 will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7067; (P) 0.7117; (R1) 0.7143; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point. On the downside, decisive break of 0.7054 support should confirm completion of rebound from 0.6722. Further decline should then be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.6722 to 0.7295 at 0.6941 next. On the upside, though, break of 0.7206 will turn focus back to 0.7295 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we’d treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7183; (P) 0.7204; (R1) 0.7225; More…

Focus remains on 0.7199 support in AUD/USD. Decisive break there will suggest that the corrective rebound from 0.7020 has completed earlier than expected. Deeper fall should then be seen back to retest 0.7020 low. On the upside, above 0.7259 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside. In that case, corrective rise from 0.7020 would extend to 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7020 at 0.7446 before completion.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is in place at 0.7020 ahead of 0.6826 key support (2016 low). Stronger rebound might be seen to correct the whole fall from 0.8135 high. But we’d expect strong resistance from 0.7500 support turned resistance to limit upside. Medium term fall from 0.8135 should resume and extend to take on 0.6826 low at a later stage, after the correction from 0.7020 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7641; (P) 0.7668; (R1) 0.7687; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral as it’s bounded in consolidation above 0.7642 temporary low. More sideway trading would be seen and stronger recovery cannot be ruled out. Still, near term outlook stays bearish as long as 0.7784 resistance holds, and further decline is expected. Break of 0.7642 will extend recent fall from 0.8135 to retest 0.7500 key support level. On the upside, however, break of 0.7784 will suggest near term reversal and turn bias to the upside for 0.7915 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed. In that case, AUD/USD would be heading back to 0.6826 low in medium term.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7527; (P) 0.7548; (R1) 0.7561; More….

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. With 0.7523 intact, further rise is expected. Break of 0.7635 will extend the rise from 0.7328 to 0.7748 resistance and above. At this point, there is no clear sign of range breakout at. Hence, we’d be cautious on topping again as it approaches medium term fibonacci level at 0.7849. Meanwhile, break of 0.7523 will argue that rebound from 0.7328 is possibly completed. In that case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.7370 support.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a corrective pattern. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8116) and above.

AUD/USD stayed in consolidation above 0.7624 last week with weak recovery. Initial bias remains neutral this week first with focus back on 0.7624. Decisive break there will pave the way to next key cluster level at 0.7322/8. In case of another rise, upside of recovery should be limited well below 0.7896 resistance to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, corrective rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is likely completed at 0.8124, after hitting 55 month EMA (now at 0.8067). Decisive break of 0.7328 key cluster support (61.8% retracement 0.6826 to 0.8124 at 0.7322) will confirm. And in that case, long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) will likely be resuming. Break of 0.6826 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8124 at 0.5496. This will now be the favored case as long as 0.7896 near term resistance holds.

In the longer term picture, 0.6826 is seen as a long term bottom. Rise from there could either reverse the down trend from 1.1079, or just develop into a corrective pattern. At this point, we’re favoring the latter. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 holds, we’d anticipate another decline through 0.6826 at a later stage. But strong support should be seen between 0.4773 (2001 low) and 0.6008 (2008 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6312; (P) 0.6352; (R1) 0.6377; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral for the moment, and outlook remains bearish with 0.6444 resistance intact. On the downside, decisive break of 0.6284 will confirm resumption of whole decline from 0.7156. Next target is 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195, which is close to 0.6169 medium term support. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.6444 will confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is possibly still in progress. Decisive break of 0.6169 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6021. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6894, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7043; (P) 0.7081; (R1) 0.7126; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral first. On the upside, above 0.7126 will extend the rebound from 0.6828 to 55 day EMA (now at 0.7175). Break there will target 0.7265 resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 0.6948 will resume larger fall from 0.8006 through 0.6828 low, and target 0.6756/60 medium term fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Deeper fall could be seen to 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. Strong support is expected from 0.6756/60 cluster to contain downside to complete the correction. However, sustained break of 0.6756/60 would argue that AUD/USD is indeed already in a medium term down trend.

AUD/USD’s strong was rebound last week was capped below 0.6666 resistance, and followed by equally steep decline. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, with focus on 0.6503 support. Decisive break there will indicate that larger fall from 0.6870 is ready to resume, and turn bias to the downside for 0.6442 low. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.6633 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen the second leg of the pattern. Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7081; (P) 0.7115; (R1) 0.7144; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside. Fall from 0.7393 is in progress for retesting 0.7020 low. Decisive break there will resume larger decline from 0.8135 for 0.6826 key support. On the upside, break of 0.7203 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is in place at 0.7020 ahead of 0.6826 key support (2016 low). Stronger rebound could still be seen to correct the whole fall from 0.8135 high. But we’d expect strong resistance from 0.7500 support turned resistance to limit upside. Medium term fall from 0.8135 should resume later and extend to take on 0.6826 low at a later stage, after the correction from 0.7020 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6527; (P) 0.6539; (R1) 0.6557; More…

AUD/USD recovered after drawing support from 4 hour 55 EMA, but stays below 0.6616. Intraday bias remains neutral first and outlook is unchanged. Rebound from 0.5506 might still extend. However, considering persistent bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, in case of another rise, upside should be limited by 0.6670 key resistance, at least on first attempt. On the downside, break of 0.6402 support will confirm short term topping and turn bias to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.6616 at 0.6192.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in favor to extend. 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to 0.4773 (2001 low). On the upside, however, sustained break of 0.6607 will suggest medium term bottoming and turn focus to 0.7031 resistance next.