AUD/USD’s recovery from 0.7712 extended higher last week. The break of near term trend line resistance is taken as first sign of reversal. Initial bias is cautiously on the upside for 0.7892 minor resistsance Break there will affirm this bullish case and target 0.7988 and above. On the downside, below 0.7772 will turn bias to the downside for 0.7712. Break there will resume whole fall from 0.8135.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed.

In the longer term picture, 0.6826 is seen as a long term bottom. Rise from there could either reverse the down trend from 1.1079, or just develop into a corrective pattern. At this point, we’re favoring the latter. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 holds, we’d anticipate another decline through 0.6826 at a later stage. But strong support should be seen between 0.4773 (2001 low) and 0.6008 (2008 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6881; (P) 0.6911; (R1) 0.6968; More…

AUD/USD is staying in consolidation above 0.6828 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7265 resistance holds. Break of 0.6828 will resume larger fall from 0.8006, and target 0.6756/60 medium term fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Deeper fall should be seen to 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. Strong support is expected from 0.6756/60 cluster to contain downside to complete the correction. However, sustained break of 0.6756/60 would argue that AUD/USD is indeed already in a medium term down trend.

AUD/USD’s down trend from 0.8006 resumed last week and dropped to as low as 0.6762. Strong support could still be seen from 0.6756/60 cluster support to bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.6918 resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for 0.7282 resistance. However, sustained break of 0.6756/60 will carry larger bearish implication and target 0.6461 fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Strong support is expected from 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756 to complete the pattern. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. However firm break of 0.6756/60 will raise the chance of bearish reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.6461.

In the long term picture, rejection by 0.8135 resistance suggests that the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is not ready to reverse. Yet, the structure of the fall from 0.8006 still argues that it’s a corrective move. Hence, break of 0.5506 low is not envisaged for now. The long term outlook stays neutral first, and will be reassessed later after the fall from 0.8006 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7666; (P) 0.7690; (R1) 0.7729; More…

AUD/USD’s break of 0.7703 resistance suggests that correction from 0.7819 has completed at 0.7563. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 0.7819. Break will resume larger up trend from 0.5506. Next near term target is 61.8% projection of 0.6991 to 0.7819 from 0.7563 at 0.8075. On the downside, break of 0.7650 minor support will delay the bullish case and extend the correction form 0.7819.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8010; (P) 0.8047; (R1) 0.8100; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside for 0.8124 resistance. Break there will resume whole medium term rebound from 0.6826 and target key fibonacci level at 0.8451. On the downside, break of 0.7956 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that medium term rebound from 0.6826 is still in progress and could be resuming. Such rise could target 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.6826 (2016 low) at 0.8451. As such rise is seen as a corrective move, we’d expect strong resistance from 0.8451 to limit upside and bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7888; (P) 0.7961; (R1) 0.8007; More…

At this point, AUD/USD is still bounded in range of 0.7807/8124. Intraday bias remains neutral for more consolidative trading. Deeper fall cannot be ruled out. But still, with 0.7807 support intact, near term outlook stays bearish and another rise is expected. Break of 0.8124 will turn bias to the upside and target 100% projection of 0.6826 to 0.7833 from 0.7328 at 0.8335 next. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, firm break of 0.7807 will indicate near term reversal and turn bias back to the downside for 0.7328 key support.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is still in progress. At this point, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we’ll continue to treat such rebound as a corrective pattern. But in any case, break of 55 month EMA (now at 0.8090) will target 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451. Break of 0.7807 support is needed to to be the first sign of completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise is now in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7306; (P) 0.7361; (R1) 0.7399; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside for the moment. Fall from 0.8006 is correcting the whole up trend from 0.5506. Next target is 161.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7530 from 0.7890 at 0.7120. On the upside, break of 0.7408 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5506 medium term bottom could have completed at 0.8006, after failing 0.8135 key resistance. Correction from there could target 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051). We’d look for strong support from there to bring rebound. However, sustained break of this level would argue that the whole medium term has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6734; (P) 0.6750; (R1) 0.6776; More…

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.6670 resumed by taking out 0.6180 and hits as high as 0.6833 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside for further rally. But still, such rebound is seen as a corrective move. Hence, upside should be limited by 0.6894 resistance to bring down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.6723 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6670 low.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7064; (P) 0.7094; (R1) 0.7147; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral at this point. On the upside, firm break of 0.7172 will indicate short term bottoming. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 0.7276). On the downside, firm break of 0.6991 key structural support will carry larger bearish implication. Next target is 100% projection of 0.7890 to 0.7105 from 0.7555 at 0.6770.

In the bigger picture, sustained break of 0.6991 cluster support will argue that the who up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461). For now, medium term outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7555 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6460; (P) 0.6482; (R1) 0.6509; More…

AUD/USD recovered quickly after breaching 0.6457 support briefly. Intraday bias is turned neutral first with 4H MACD crossed above signal line. on the downside, decisive break of 0.6457 support will confirm resumption of whole fall from 0.7156. Next target is 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.6615 minor resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) could still be in progress. Break of 0.6457 will affirm this bearish case. Further break of 0.6169 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6021. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6894, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6981; (P) 0.7010; (R1) 0.7059; More…

AUD/USD’s recovery from 0.6871 extends higher today, but stays below 0.7062 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first and further rally is expected. On the upside, break of 0.7062 will resume rise from 0.6169 to 61.8% projection of 0.6169 to 0.6892 from 0.6721 at 0.7168 next. However, on the downside, break of 0.6871 support should confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 0.6721 support and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 0.8006 (2021 high) should have completed with three waves down to 0.6169 (2022 low). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.7304. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 0.8006. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6721 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7075; (P) 0.7107; (R1) 0.7135; More…

AUD/USD’s decline accelerates to as low as 0.7027 so far. The strong break of 0.7052 support affirms the case of resumption of fall from 0.7295. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 0.7003 support first. Break will confirm and target 100% projection of 0.7295 to 0.7003 from 0.7205 at 0.6913. Decisive break there will indicate further downside acceleration. On the upside, above 0.7081 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

AUD/USD recovered to 0.7209 last week but failed to sustain above 0.7192 support turned resistance. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 0.7209 and sustained trading above 0.7192 should confirm completion of the pull back from 0.7413. Further rise should be seen back to retest 0.7413 high. On the downside, break of 0.7005 will resume the correction to 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7413 at 0.6685.

In the bigger picture, while rebound from 0.5506 was strong, there is not enough evidence to confirm bullish trend reversal yet. That is, it could be just a corrective inside the long term up trend. Sustained trading back below 55 week EMA (now at 0.6896) will favor the bearish case and argue that the rebound has completed. Focus will be turned back to 0.5506 low. On the upside, break of 0.7413 will extend the rise from 0.5506 to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635.

In the longer term picture, bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD is a condition for long term bullish reversal. Yet, AUD/USD struggled to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 0.7309). It’s also limited below 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635. Hence, there is not enough evidence for reversal yet. Down trend from 1.1079 could still extend through 0.5506 at a later stage.

AUD/USD’s rise from 0.6169 resumed by breaking through 0.6892 last week. Initial bias stays on the upside this week. Further rally should be seen to 61.8% projection of 0.6169 to 0.6892 from 0.6721 at 0.7444. On the downside, break of 0.6875 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations again. But overall outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.6721 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 0.8006 (2021 high) should have completed with three waves down to 0.6169 (2022 low). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.7304. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 0.8006. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6721 support holds.

In the long term picture, current development suggests that fall from 0.8006 was merely a correction to the rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Sustained trading above 55 month EMA (now at 0.7193) will raise the chance of up trend resumption through 0.8006 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7151; (P) 0.7173; (R1) 0.7204; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is back on the upside as rebound from 0.6966 resumed by breaking through 0.7167. Further rise would be seen back to 0.7313 resistance. Decisive break there argue that correction from 0.8006 has completed at 0.6966, after hitting 0.6991 key support. Outlook will be turned bullish for 0.7555 resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 0.7050 support will bring retest of 0.6966 low instead.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on 0.6991 key structural support. Sustained break there will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461. Meanwhile, strong rebound from 0.6991 will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7600; (P) 0.7624; (R1) 0.7640; More…

AUD/USD’s fall from 0.7748 continues today and intraday bias remains on the downside for 0.7490 support. Firm break there will confirm completion of rise from 0.7158. In such case, near term outlook will be turned bearish for 0.7158 support next. On the upside, though, above 0.7647 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7748 and above. At this point, we’d continue to expect strong resistance from long term retracement level at 0.7849 to limit upside.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8169) and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6746; (P) 0.6778; (R1) 0.6795; More…

AUD/USD recovers mildly today but with 0.6808 minor resistance intact, intraday bias remains on the downside. Corrective rise from 0.6677 should have completed with three waves up to 0.6894. Further decline should be seen to retest 0.6677 first. Break will resume larger down trend. On the upside, above 0.6808 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.6894 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7894; (P) 0.7922; (R1) 0.7973; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. Price actions from 0.8065 are developing into a consolidation pattern. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 0.7785 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.7328 to 0.8065 at 0.7783) to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 0.8065 will confirm rally resumption for 100% projection of 0.6826 to 0.7833 from 0.7328 at 0.8335.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is still in progress. At this point, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we’ll continue to treat such rebound as a corrective pattern. But in any case, break of 55 month EMA (now at 0.8097) will target 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451. Break of 0.7328 support is needed to confirm completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise is now in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6710; (P) 0.6744; (R1) 0.6765; More…

Further rally is in favor in AUD/USD as long as 0.6689 support holds. Rise from 0.6269 would target 0.6894 resistance first. Sustained break there will target 0.7156 next. Nevertheless, break of 0.6689 will indicate short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for deeper pull back

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) could be just a medium term corrective pattern. Rise from 0.6269 is seen as the third leg of the pattern. For now, range trading should be seen between 0.6169 and 0.7156 (2023 high), until further developments.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7917; (P) 0.7965; (R1) 0.8053; More…

While AUD/USD loses some upside momentum, with 0.7877 support intact, further rise is still expected. Current rally from 0.7328 should target next key projection level at 100% projection of 0.6826 to 0.7833 from 0.7328 at 0.8335. Nonetheless, break of 0.7877 will indicate short term topping and bring deeper pull back to 0.7711 resistance turned support.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rebound from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rise. There is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we’ll continue to treat such rebound as a corrective pattern. But in any case, further rise is now expected to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8100) or even further to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451. Break of 0.7328 support is needed to confirm completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise is now expected.