Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6557; (P) 0.6594; (R1) 0.6619; More…

AUD/USD’s break of 55 4H EMA (now at 0.6585) argues that corrective recovery from 0.6442 has completed with three waves up to 0.6666. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.6476 support first. Break there will argue that decline from 0.6870 is ready to resume. On the upside, break of 0.6629 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside to extend the rebound from 0.6442 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

AUD/USD’s up trend resumed last week by break through 0.7819 and hit as high as 0.7876. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 61.8% projection of 0.6991 to 0.7819 from 0.7563 at 0.8075. We’d pay attention to the reaction to 0.8135 long term resistance. On the downside, break of 0.7730 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

In the longer term picture, 0.5506 is a long term bottom, on bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD. Focus is now back on 0.8135 structure resistance. Decisive break there will rise the chance that rise from 0.5506 is an impulsive up trend. Next target should be 61.8% retracement at 0.8950 and above. Though, rejection by 0.8135 will keep the case of medium to long term sideway consolidation open.

AUD/USD edged higher to 0.6444 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and further rise is mildly in favor with 0.6213 support intact. On the upside, break of 0.6444 will extend the rebound from 0.5506 to 100% projection of 0.5506 to 0.6213 from 0.5979 at 0.6686, which is close to 0.6684 key resistance. On the downside, break of 0.6213 resistance turned support will argue that such rebound has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.5979 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in favor to extend. 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to 0.4773 (2001 low). On the upside, break of 0.6670 support turned resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, down trend from 1.1079 (2011) is still in progress. It’s a bit early to just the depth of the down trend. But sustained break of 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 could pave the way to 100% projection at 0.3882.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7080; (P) 0.7098; (R1) 0.7132; More…

Outlook in AUD/USD remains unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, break of 0.7056 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 0.7003 first. Break will resume the whole decline from 0.7295. On the upside above 0.7168 will resume the rebound from 0.7003 towards 0.7295 high instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we’d treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7733; (P) 0.7769; (R1) 0.7793; More…

AUD/USD retreated after making a temporary top at 0.7804, ahead of 0.7819 high. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. Further rally is expected as long as 0.7717 minor support holds. Decisive break of 0.7819 will resume larger up trend from 0.5506, for 61.8% projection of 0.6991 to 0.7819 from 0.7563 at 0.8075. On the downside, break of 0.7717 minor support will delay the bullish case and extend the correction from 0.7819 with another fall, towards 0.7563 support.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7275; (P) 0.7303; (R1) 0.7334; More….

AUD/USD remains bounded in consolidation from 0.7339 and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rise is in favor with 0.7221 support intact. Consolidation pattern from 0.7413 could have completed with three waves to 0.6991. On the upside, break of 0.7339 will target at test on 0.7413 high first. Firm break there will resume larger rally from 0.5506. Nevertheless, on the downside, break of 0.7221 minor support would likely extend the consolidation pattern from 0.7413 with another falling leg.

In the bigger picture, while rebound from 0.5506 was strong, there is not enough evidence to confirm bullish trend reversal yet. That is, it could be just a correction inside the long term down trend. Sustained trading back below 55 week EMA (now at 0.6969) will favor the bearish case and argue that the rebound has completed. Focus will be turned back to 0.5506 low. On the upside, break of 0.7413 will extend the rise from 0.5506 to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6836; (P) 0.6871; (R1) 0.6894; More…

Price actions from 0.6929 in AUD/USD is still seen as a corrective move. Intraday bias remains neutral first and further rise in favor with 0.6809 minor support intact. On the upside, break of 0.6929 will resume the rise from 0.6670 to 0.7082 key resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 0.6809 support will suggest that such rebound is completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 0.6670 low.

In the bigger picture, the case of medium term bullish reversal is building up with bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. But there is no clear confirmation yet. As long as 0.7082 resistance holds, larger down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7529).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6751; (P) 0.6777; (R1) 0.6830; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays on the upside for the moment. Current rise from 0.6269 should target 0.6894 resistance first. Sustained break there will target 0.7156 next. On the downside, below 0.6723 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.6541 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) could be just a medium term corrective pattern. Rise from 0.6269 is seen as the third leg of the pattern. For now, range trading should be seen between 0.6169 and 0.7156 (2023 high), until further developments.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7070; (P) 0.7134; (R1) 0.7166; More…

AUD/USD drops to as low as as 0.7084 so far as fall from 0.7314 extends. Intraday bias remains on the downside. Larger decline from 0.8135 is likely resuming. Break of 0.7084 will target 61.8% projection of 0.7676 to 0.7084 from 0.7314 at 0.6948 next. On the upside, break of 0.7161 minor resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there would extend to have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Current downside momentum as seen in weekly MACD support this bearish case. Firm break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7361 resistance, however, argues that a medium term bottom is possibly in place, and stronger rebound could follow. We’ll assess the medium term outlook later if this happens.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6503; (P) 0.6533; (R1) 0.6563; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside for 0.6476 support. Break there will argue that decline from 0.6870 is ready to resume through 0.6442 low. On the upside, break of 0.6583 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.6666 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6737; (P) 0.6756; (R1) 0.6788; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. Deeper decline is expected as long as 0.6854 support turned resistance holds. Break of 0.6693 will resume the fall from 0.7156 to 161.8% projection of of 0.6854 to 0.7028 from 0.6854 at 0.6539. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.6854 will argue that such decline is finished, and revive near term bullishness.

In the bigger picture, focus is staying on 0.6721 structural support. Sustained break there will argue that whole rise from 0.6169 (2022 low) has completed at 0.7156, after rejection by 55 month EMA (now at 0.7164). Deeper decline would then be see back to 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546, even as a corrective fall. Nevertheless, strong rebound from current level will retain medium term bullishness for another rise through 0.7156 later.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7847; (P) 0.7881; (R1) 0.7912; More…

AUD/USD lost momentum after failing to stay above 0.7892 resistance. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. We’re slightly favoring the case that corrective pull back from 0.8135 has completed with three waves down to 0.7712. Further rise is expected as long as 0.7772 minor support holds. Above 0.7892 again will target 0.7988 resistance. Decisive break there will bring larger rally resumption. Nonetheless, on the downside. On the downside, below 0.7772 will turn bias to the downside for 0.7712. Break there will resume whole fall from 0.8135.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6537; (P) 0.6564; (R1) 0.6582; More…

A temporary top should be in place at 0.6588 in AUD/USD with current retreat. Intraday bias is turned neutral for consolidations. Downside should be contained above 0.6451 support to bring another rally. On the upside, above 0.6588 will resume the rebound from 0.6269 to falling channel resistance (now at 0.6676) next.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. While current rebound from 0.6269 might extend higher, it could be the third leg of the corrective pattern from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. For now, medium term bearishness will remain as long as 0.6894 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6270; (P) 0.6305; (R1) 0.6344; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral and further decline is expected with 0.6362 support turned resistance intact. Firm break of 100% projection of 0.7660 to 0.6680 from 0.7135 at 0.6155 will target 138.2% projection at 0.5781. Nevertheless, break of 0.6362 will indicate short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, and bring stronger rebound back to 0.6539 resistance.

In the bigger picture, down trend form 0.8006 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 0.6680 support turned resistance holds. Next target is 0.5506 low. Medium term momentum will now be closely monitored to gauge the chance of break of 0.5506.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7297; (P) 0.7353; (R1) 0.7397; More…

AUD/USD’s fall resumed after brief consolidation and edged lower to 0.7309. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Sustained break of f 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) will target 61.8% projection of 0.8135 to 0.7411 from 0.7676 at 0.7229 next. On the upside, however, break of 0.7408 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound back towards 0.7676 resistance.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7705; (P) 0.7733; (R1) 0.7774; More…

AUD/USD is still bounded in consolidation from 0.7819 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise is expected with 0.7641 support intact. On the upside, break of 0.7819 will resume larger up trend from 0.5506 to 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.7413 from 0.6991 at 0.8170. However, break of 0.7641 will indicate short term topping, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for deeper correction to 0.7461 support.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

AUD/USD’s down trend extended last week to as low as 0.7097. 100% projection of 0.7452 to 0.7201 from 0.7361 at 0.7110 was already met and there is no sign of bottoming. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 161.8% projection at 0.6955. Break will target key support level at 0.6826. On the upside, break of 0.7210 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there would extend to have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Current downside momentum as seen in daily and weekly MACD support this bearish case. Firm break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7361 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, the corrective structure of rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) to 0.8135, and the failure to break 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.6826 at 0.8451, carry bearish implications. AUD/USD was also rejected by 55 month EMA. Now, the down trend from 1.1079 is in favor to extend. On break of 0.6826, next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

AUD/USD’s corrective fall from 0.7156 extended to 0.6854 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and another fall is mildly in favor. Break of 0.6854 will target 38.2% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6779. On the upside, break of 0.7010 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.7156 high instead.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 0.8006 (2021 high) should have completed with three waves down to 0.6169 (2022 low). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.7304. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 0.8006. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6721 support holds.

In the long term picture, current development suggests that fall from 0.8006 was merely a correction to the rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Sustained trading above 55 month EMA (now at 0.7186) will raise the chance of up trend resumption through 0.8006 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7265; (P) 0.7289; (R1) 0.7305; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the this point. Correction from 0.8006 could have completed after defending 0.6991. Further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.6992 to 0.7277 from 0.7128 at 0.7413 first. For now, further rally will remain in favor as long as 0.7128 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 0.6991 key structural support will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress. Firm break of 0.7555 resistance will target 0.8006 high and above. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6609; (P) 0.6637; (R1) 0.6678; More…

AUD/USD’s rally is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Sustained break of channel resistance (now at 0.6663) will argue that whole decline from 0.7156 has completed with three waves down to 0.6269. Further rally should then be seen to 0.6894 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, below 0.6595 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But further rise will remain in favor as long as 0.6521 resistance turned support holds.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) could be just a medium term corrective pattern, with rise from 0.6269 as the third leg. For now, range trading should be seen between 0.6169 and 0.7156 (2023 high), until further developments.