Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7365; (P) 0.7387; (R1) 0.7415; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. Near term outlook stays bearish with 0.7443 support turned resistance intact, and further decline is in favor. On the downside, break of 0.7288 will resume the whole fall from 0.8006 and target 161.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7530 from 0.7890 at 0.7120 next. On the upside, break of 0.7443 will bring stronger rebound to 0.7530 support turned resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5506 medium term bottom could have completed at 0.8006, after failing 0.8135 key resistance. Correction from there could target 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051). We’d look for strong support from there to bring rebound. However, sustained break of this level would argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7127; (P) 0.7160; (R1) 0.7204; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains mildly on the upside for the moment. Rebound from 0.7003 is in progress for 0.7206 resistance first. Break will likely resume larger rebound from 0.6722 through 0.7295 resistance. On the downside, though, break of 0.7115 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for 0.7003/7052 support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, break of medium term channel resistance is the first sign of bullish reversal. But there is no confirmation yet. As long as 0.7393 resistance holds, larger fall from 0.8135 is still expected to resume later. Such decline is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

AUD/USD rebounded to as high as 0.7168 last week but failed to sustain above 55 day EMA and retreated sharply. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 0.7056 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 0.7003 first. Break will resume the whole decline from 0.7295. On the upside above 0.7168 will resume the rebound from 0.7003 towards 0.7295 high instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we’d treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 low and then 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7666; (P) 0.7690; (R1) 0.7729; More…

AUD/USD’s break of 0.7703 resistance suggests that correction from 0.7819 has completed at 0.7563. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 0.7819. Break will resume larger up trend from 0.5506. Next near term target is 61.8% projection of 0.6991 to 0.7819 from 0.7563 at 0.8075. On the downside, break of 0.7650 minor support will delay the bullish case and extend the correction form 0.7819.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6450; (P) 0.6501; (R1) 0.6557; More…

AUD/USD breached 0.6521 resistance but failed to sustain above there. Intraday remains neutral first. On the upside, decisive break of 0.6521 resistance will now complete a head and shoulder bottom pattern (ls: 0.6362; h: 0.6169; rs: 0.6271). Further rally should be seen to 100% projection of 0.6169 to 0.6521 from 0.6271 at 0.6623, and then 161.8% projection at 0.6841. Nevertheless, break of 0.6271 will bring retest of 0.6169 low instead.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 0.6680 support turned resistance holds. Medium term momentum remains strong and retest of 0.5506 (2020 low) cannot be ruled out. But firm break of 0.6680 will be the first sign of reversal, and bring stronger rebound back to 0.7135 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6820; (P) 0.6859; (R1) 0.6887; More…

AUD/USD’s decline resumed after brief consolidation and breached 0.6831 low. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Sustained trading below 0.6831 will extend the fall from 0.7295 to retest 0.6722 low. On the upside, above 0.6899 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6922; (P) 0.6962; (R1) 0.6985; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside for the moment. Current fall from 07295 should target 100% projection of 0.7295 to 0.7003 from 0.7205 at 0.6913. Decisive break there will indicate further downside acceleration and pave the way to retest 0.6722 low. On the upside, break of 0.7018 minor resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7200; (P) 0.7225; (R1) 0.7264; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 0.7277, and sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 0.7236) will argue that fall from 0.8006 has completed at 0.6992, after defending 0.6991 support. Further rally would be seen to 0.7555 resistance for confirmation. However, break of 0.7081 support will revive near term bearishness and bring retest of 0.6991/2 key support zone.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 0.6991 key structural support will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress. Firm break of 0.7555 resistance will target 0.8006 high and above. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6766; (P) 0.6830; (R1) 0.6919; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays on the upside at this point. Current rally should target 61.8% projection of 0.6271 to 0.6796 from 0.6641 at 0.6965. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 0.7166 next. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.6728 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, it’s still unsure if price actions from 0.6169 medium term bottom are developing into a corrective pattern or trend rejection. Rejection by 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.6871 will maintain medium term bearishness for another fall through 0.6169 at a later stage. However, firm break of 0.6871, and sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6912) will raise the chance of the start of a bullish up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7067; (P) 0.7106; (R1) 0.7175; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is break on the upside with break of 0.7141 resistance. Current up trend from 0.6169 should now target 0.7304 fibonacci level. On the downside, break of 0.6982 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 0.8006 (2021 high) should have completed with three waves down to 0.6169 (2022 low). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.7304. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 0.8006. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6721 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7099; (P) 0.7115; (R1) 0.7144; More…

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.7052 extends higher today and focus is back on 0.7168 resistance. Decisive break there will suggest that the corrective decline from 0.7295 has completed at 0.7003 already. Intraday bias will be turned to the upside to resume the rebound from 0.6722 through 0.7295. On the downside, though, sustained break of 0.7052 will target 0.7004 first. Break will resume the fall from 0.7295 instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, fall from 0.8135 is still expected to extend. Such decline is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7682; (P) 0.7714; (R1) 0.7746; More…

AUD/USD is still staying in consolidation from 0.7819 and intraday bias remains neutral first. As long as 0.7641 support holds, further rise is expected. On the upside, break of 0.7819 will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.7413 from 0.6991 at 0.8170. However, decisive break of 0.7641 will turn bias to the downside, for deeper correction to 0.7461 support and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6973; (P) 0.7000; (R1) 0.7015; More…

AUD/USD’s recovery was limited below 0.7069 resistance and reversed. But downside is contained above 0.6962 temporary low. Intraday bias remains neural and outlook stays bearish. On the downside, break of 0.6962 will resume the fall from 0.7295 to 100% projection of 0.7295 to 0.7003 from 0.7205 at 0.6913. Decisive break there will indicate further downside acceleration and pave the way to retest 0.6722 low. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, firm break of 0.7069 will indicate near term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 0.7205 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

AUD/USD edged lower to 0.6962 last week but quickly turned sideway. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and more consolidative trading could be seen. Upside of recovery should be limited by 0.7069 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.6962 will resume the fall from 0.7295 to 100% projection of 0.7295 to 0.7003 from 0.7205 at 0.6913. Decisive break there will indicate further downside acceleration and pave the way to retest 0.6722 low. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, firm break of 0.7069 will indicate near term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 0.7205 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 low and then 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.6269 resumed last week and hit 0.6541. But subsequent retreat suggested that a temporary top was formed. Initial bias stays neutral this week for more consolidations. On the upside, break of 0.6541, and sustained trading above 38.2% retracement of 0.6894 to 0.6269 at 0.6508, will argue that whole corrective fall from 0.7156 has completed with three waves down to 0.6269. Stronger rally should seen to falling channel resistance (now at 0.6676) next.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. While current rebound from 0.6269 might extend higher, it could be the third leg of the corrective pattern from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. For now, medium term bearishness will remain as long as 0.6894 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506(2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen the second leg of the pattern. Hence, in case of deeper decline, downside strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6508; (P) 0.6540; (R1) 0.6559; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral first, with loss of downside momentum. On the downside, decisive break of 0.6457 support will confirm resumption of whole fall from 0.7156. Next target is 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.6608 minor resistance will dampen this view, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, outlook is mixed for now as AUD/USD failed to sustain above both 55 D EMA (now at 0.6686) and 55 W EMA (now at 0.6769). On the upside, break of 0.6894 resistance will solidify the case that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has already completed, and target 0.7156 resistance for confirmation. However, break of 0.6457 will likely resume the down trend through 0.6169 (2022 low).

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.70202 accelerated higher last week. The development argues that a medium term bottom might be in place. Further rise is expected this week as long as 0.7159 minor support holds. Firm break of 0.7314 resistance will confirm this bullish case and target 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7020 at 0.7446 next. However, sustained break of 0.7159 will turn focus back to 0.7020 low instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7314 resistance holds, fall from 0.8135 is tentatively treated as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7314 will suggest that whole decline from 0.8135 has completed. And, the corrective pattern from 0.6826 (2016 low) is extending with another rising leg towards 0.8135 before completion.

In the longer term picture, the corrective structure of rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) to 0.8135, and the failure to break 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.6826 at 0.8451, carry bearish implications. AUD/USD was also rejected by 55 month EMA. Now, the down trend from 1.1079 is in favor to extend. On break of 0.6826, next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7499; (P) 0.7528; (R1) 0.7573; More…

AUD/USD’s rally from 0.6966 resumed by breaking through 0.7539 resistance, and hits as high as 0.7629 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside. As noted before, the strong break of 0.7555 structural resistance should confirm that whole corrective decline from 0.8006 has completed at 0.6966. Further rise should be seen back to retest 0.8005 high. In any case, near term outlook will now remain bullish as long as 0.7455 support holds.

In the bigger picture, correction from 0.8006 could have completed at 0.6966, after drawing support from 0.6991. That is, up trend from 0.5506 (2020 low) might be ready to resume. Firm break of 0.8006 will target 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.8006 from 0.6966 at 0.8511 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.7164 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6737; (P) 0.6756; (R1) 0.6788; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. Deeper decline is expected as long as 0.6854 support turned resistance holds. Break of 0.6693 will resume the fall from 0.7156 to 161.8% projection of of 0.6854 to 0.7028 from 0.6854 at 0.6539. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.6854 will argue that such decline is finished, and revive near term bullishness.

In the bigger picture, focus is staying on 0.6721 structural support. Sustained break there will argue that whole rise from 0.6169 (2022 low) has completed at 0.7156, after rejection by 55 month EMA (now at 0.7164). Deeper decline would then be see back to 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546, even as a corrective fall. Nevertheless, strong rebound from current level will retain medium term bullishness for another rise through 0.7156 later.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6030; (P) 0.6168; (R1) 0.6258; More…

AUD/USD’s fall extends to as low as 0.5981 so far today and breaches 0.6008 key support. We’d be cautious on recovery from this level. On the upside, break of 0.6186 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for rebound. However, sustained break of 0.6008 will pave the way to 161.8% projection of 0.7031 to 0.6433 from 0.6684 at 0.5716.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Prior rejection by 55 week EMA affirms medium term bearishness. 0.6008 (2008 low) is already met. Sustained break will target 0.5507 long term fibonacci projection level. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.6670 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.