Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6988; (P) 0.7002; (R1) 0.7032; More…

AUD/USD accelerates to as high as 0.7101 so far today. Break of 0.7064 resistance confirms resumption of whole rise form 0.5506. Intraday bias is now on the upside for near term target of 61.8% projection of 0.6402 to 0.7064 from 0.6776 at 0.7185. On the downside, break of 0.6963 support is needed to confirm short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7311). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6750). Sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7710; (P) 0.7730; (R1) 0.7768; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point as consolidation from 0.7671 temporary continues. With upside limited well below 0.7915 resistance, near term outlook remains bearish. Break of 0.7671 will resume whole decline from 0.8135 and target 0.7500 key support level next. However, break of 0.7915 resistance will indicate near term reversal and turn focus back to 0.8135 high instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed. In that case, AUD/USD would be heading back to 0.6826 low in medium term.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6030; (P) 0.6168; (R1) 0.6258; More…

AUD/USD’s fall extends to as low as 0.5981 so far today and breaches 0.6008 key support. We’d be cautious on recovery from this level. On the upside, break of 0.6186 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for rebound. However, sustained break of 0.6008 will pave the way to 161.8% projection of 0.7031 to 0.6433 from 0.6684 at 0.5716.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Prior rejection by 55 week EMA affirms medium term bearishness. 0.6008 (2008 low) is already met. Sustained break will target 0.5507 long term fibonacci projection level. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.6670 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

AUD/USD’s down trend continued last week despite some interim consolidation. Initial bias is now on the downside this week with focus on 0.6991 key structural support. Sustained break there will carry larger bearish implication. next target is 100% projection of 0.7890 to 0.7105 from 0.7555 at 0.6770. On the upside, break of 0.7172 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, sustained break of 0.6991 cluster support will argue that the who up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461). For now, medium term outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7555 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

In the longer term picture, focus remains on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will argue that rise from 0.5506 is developing into a long term up trend that reverses whole down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high).However, rejection by 0.8135 will keep long term outlook neutral at best.

AUD/USD rebounded strongly last week but failed to break through 0.7837 resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. on the upside, break of 0.7837 will suggest that the correction from 0.8006 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting this high. On the downside, below 0.7620 will target 0.7563 support. Firm break of 0.7563 will indicate that deeper correction is underway, back towards 0.7413 resistance turned support.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

In the longer term picture, 0.5506 is a long term bottom, on bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD. Focus is now back on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will raise the chance that rise from 0.5506 is an impulsive up trend. Next target should be 61.8% retracement at 0.8950 and above. Though, rejection by 0.8135 will keep the case of medium to long term sideway consolidation open.

AUD/USD’s decline last week confirmed that corrective rise from 0.7411 has completed at 0.7676 already. And, larger fall from 0.8135 is resuming. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 0.7411 low first. Break will confirm this bearish case and target 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326). On the upside, break of 0.7528 minor resistance is needed to indicate completion of the fall from 0.7676. Otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. Prior break of 0.7500 key support suggests that such correction is completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. In case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption eventually.

In the longer term picture, 0.6826 is seen as a long term bottom. Rise from there could either reverse the down trend from 1.1079, or just develop into a corrective pattern. At this point, we’re favoring the latter. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 holds, we’d anticipate another decline through 0.6826 at a later stage. But strong support should be seen between 0.4773 (2001 low) and 0.6008 (2008 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6933; (P) 0.6998; (R1) 0.7064; More…

AUD/USD edged higher to 0.7064 but failed to sustain above 0.7031 resistance again and retreated. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, firm break of 0.6898 minor support should indicate short term topping and rejection by 0.7031. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside, for correction back to 0.6569 resistance turned support. On the upside, however, sustained break of 0.7031 will extend the rise from 0.5506.

In the bigger picture, the firm break of 0.6826 (2016 low) now suggests that 0.5506 is a medium term bottom. Rebound from there is likely correcting whole long term down trend form 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7326). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6721).

AUD/USD’s steep decline last week suggests that consolidation from 0.6442 has completed at 0.6643 already. Initial bias stays on the downside this week. Firm break of 1.6442 will confirm resumption of the fall from 0.6870 and target 61.8% projection of 0.6870 to 0.6442 from 0.6643 at 0.6378. On the upside, above 0.6498 resistance will turn intraday bias and bring consolidations. But risk will stay mildly on the downside as long as 0.6643 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which is still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen the second leg of the pattern. Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal.

AUD/USD’s consolidation from 0.7040 extended last week. While there was a dip to 0.7088 after hitting 0.7159, the pair quickly recovered on lack of follow through selling. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Above 0.7159 will extend the correction. But upside should be limited well below 0.7314 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7088 minor support will bring retest of 0.7040 low first. Decisive break there will resume recent down trend to 61.8% projection of 0.7676 to 0.7084 from 0.7314 at 0.6948 next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.8135 is tentatively treated as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). However, break of 0.7500 support turned resistance will argue that the corrective pattern from 0.6826 is going to extend with another rising leg before completion.

In the longer term picture, the corrective structure of rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) to 0.8135, and the failure to break 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.6826 at 0.8451, carry bearish implications. AUD/USD was also rejected by 55 month EMA. Now, the down trend from 1.1079 is in favor to extend. On break of 0.6826, next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6911; (P) 0.6955; (R1) 0.6987; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. We’d still expect corrective pattern from 0.7064 to extend with another falling leg before completion. On the downside, below 0.6901 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 0.6776 support. Break there will target 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7064 at 0.6469. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.7064 will resume whole rise from 0.5506 instead.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7310). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6734). Sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7584; (P) 0.7604; (R1) 0.7631; More…

AUD/USD’s break of 0.7639 resistance suggests up trend resumption. Intraday bias is now back on the upside. Rise should 0.5506 should target 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.7413 from 0.6991 at 0.8170 next. On the downside, break of 0.7461 support is needed to confirm short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend form 1.1079 (2001 high) could have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Sustained trading above 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.5506 at 0.7635 should confirm this bullish case. Rise form 0.5506 could either the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is.

AUD/USD recovered to 0.7206 last week but upside was held well below 0.7295 resistance. Nevertheless, as fall from 0.7206 was contained above 0.7054 support, initial bias is neutral this week first. On the downside, decisive break of 0.7054 will complete a head and shoulder reversal pattern (ls: 0.7235, h: 0.7295, rs: 0.7206). That should confirm completion of rebound from 0.6722. Further decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.6722 to 0.7295 at 0.6941 next. On the upside, though, break of 0.7206 will turn focus back to 0.7295 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we’d treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 low and then 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7109; (P) 0.7129; (R1) 0.7171; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral first as it fails to break through 0.7183 temporary top. More sideway trading could be seen but further rise is expected as long as 0.7063 support holds. On the upside, break of 0.7183 will target long term EMA level at 0.7311 next. However, firm break of 0.7063 will now suggests short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.6776 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7311). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6763). However, sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.

AUD/USD dropped sharply to as low as 0.7060 last week but formed a temporary low there and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first for some consolidation. For now, we’re favoring the case that rebound from 0.6722 has completed at 0.7295 already. Hence, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.7295 resistance holds, in case of recovery. On the downside, firm break of 0.7076 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.6722 to 0.7295 at 0.7076) should confirm this bearish case and target 61.8% retracement at 0.6941 next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we’d treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 low and then 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

AUD/USD stayed in sideway trading above 0.6594 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. With 0.6710 resistance intact, further decline is in favor. On the downside, break of 0.6594 will resume the decline from 0.6898 to 0.6457 support next. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.6719 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.7156 are seen as a correction to the rebound from 0.6169 only, rather than part of larger down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Break of 0.6457 could cannot be ruled out but downside should be contained above 0.6169. Meanwhile, nevertheless, break of 0.6898 resistance will argue that rise from 0.6169 is ready to resume through 0.7156.

In the long term picture, fall from 0.8006 is seen as a corrective move to up rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). This correction could have completed at 0.6169. Sustained trading above 55 M EMA (now at 0.7088) will affirm this case, and indicate that rise from 0.5506 is ready to resume. However, firm break of 0.6169 will revive long term bearishness and turn focus back to 0.5506 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6832; (P) 0.6845; (R1) 0.6868; More…

Intraday in AUD/USD remains mildly on the upside as rebound from 0.6670 extends. At this point, we’d continue to expect strong resistance from 0.6894 resistance to limit upside to bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 0.6810 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. Break of 0.6723 will target a test on 0.6670 low. However, firm break of 0.6894 will dampen our bearish view and turn focus back to 0.7082 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

AUD/USD’s decline from 0.7890 resumed by takin gout 0.7408 last week. Initial bias stays on the downside this week first. Such fall is now probably correcting whole up trend from 0.5506. Next target is 161.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7530 from 0.7890 at 0.7120 next. On the upside, break of 0.7502 resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5506 medium term bottom could have completed at 0.8006, after failing 0.8135 key resistance. Correction from there could target 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051). We’d look for strong support from there to bring rebound. However, sustained break of this level would argue that the whole medium term has indeed reversed.

In the longer term picture, rise from 0.5506 could have completed at 0.8006. But subsequent fall is now seen as a correction only. As long as 0.6991 structural support holds, we’d expect another rise through 0.8006 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6991 would argue that the trend has reversed and put 0.5506 low back into radar.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7797; (P) 0.7825; (R1) 0.7874; More…

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.7712 extends to as high as 0.7866 so far today. As noted before, the break of f near term trend line resistance is taken as first sign of reversal. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 0.7892 minor resistance first. Break will affirm this bullish case and target 0.7988 and above. On the downside, below 0.7772 will turn bias to the downside for 0.7712. Break there will resume whole fall from 0.8135.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed.

AUD/USD’s fall from 0.8135 resumed by taking out 0.7758 and reached as low as 0.7712. As a temporary low was formed, initial bias is neutral this week first. Near term outlook remains bearish as long as 0.7892 resistance holds. Below 0.7712 will target 100% projection of 0.8135 to 0.7758 from 0.7988 at 0.7611.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed.

In the longer term picture, 0.6826 is seen as a long term bottom. Rise from there could either reverse the down trend from 1.1079, or just develop into a corrective pattern. At this point, we’re favoring the latter. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 holds, we’d anticipate another decline through 0.6826 at a later stage. But strong support should be seen between 0.4773 (2001 low) and 0.6008 (2008 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6739; (P) 0.6770; (R1) 0.6790; More…

AUD/USD’s decline resumes after brief consolidation and hits as low as 0.6677 so far. Intraday bias is back on the downside. With 0.6722 support broken, larger down trend has also resumed. Next near term target is 100% projections of 0.7295 to 0.6831 from 0.7082 at 0.6618. On the upside, break of 0.6800 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again for consolidations.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Firm break of 0.6826 (2016 low) is confirm this bearish view. Further fall should be seen to 0.6008 (2008 low) next. On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.