Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7037; (P) 0.7068; (R1) 0.7095; More…

Outlook in AUD/USD remains unchanged for the moment. Recovery from 0.7003 is seen as a corrective recovery. Upside should be limited by 0.7121 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 0.7003 will resume the fall from 0.7295 and target 61.8% retracement of 0.6722 to 0.7295 at 0.6941 and below. However, sustained break of 0.7121 resistance will dampen this view and bring stronger rise to 0.7206 and above.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we’d treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6582; (P) 0.6599; (R1) 0.6628; More…

AUD/USD recovers mildly today but stays in range of 0.6524/6639. Intraday bias remains neutral and further fall is still expected. On the downside, firm break of 0.6524 support will argue that whole rebound from 0.6269 has completed, and bring deeper fall to this support. On the upside, however, firm break of 0.6639 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6949; (P) 0.6958; (R1) 0.6969; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains mildly on the downside at this point. Corrective recovery from 0.6864 could have completed at 0.7022 already. Deeper fall would be seen back to retest 0.6864 low. Decisive break there will resume whole fall from 0.7295. On the upside, break of 0.7022 will resume the rebound to 0.7069 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6902; (P) 0.6930; (R1) 0.6953; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as sideway consolidation continues. On the downside, firm break of 0.6828 support will resume larger fall from 0.8006. Next target is 0.6756/60 cluster support. On the upside, above 0.7068 minor resistance will bring stronger rebound to 0.7282 resistance first. Firm break there will be a sign of bullish reversal and bring stronger rebound to 0.7666 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Deeper fall could still be seen to 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. Strong support is expected from 0.6756/60 cluster to contain downside to complete the correction. Meanwhile, firm break of 0.7660 resistance will confirm that such corrective pattern has completed, and larger up trend is ready to resume.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6973; (P) 0.7005; (R1) 0.7040; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. We’re seeing price actions from 0.7064 as a consolidation pattern. Strong resistance should be seen from there to limit upside. Break of 0.6922 support will turn bias to the downside to start another falling leg inside the pattern. AUD/USD could target 0.6776 support and below. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.7064 will resume whole rise from 0.5506 instead.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7311). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6750). Sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7770; (P) 0.7789; (R1) 0.7817; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside as rebound from 0.7775 is still in progress. Further rise would be seen to 0.7896 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 0.8124 to 0.7500 at 0.7886). On the downside, break of 0.7694 support is needed to indicate completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, we’re still slightly favoring the case that corrective rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is likely completed at 0.8124, after hitting 55 month EMA (now at 0.8034). But stronger than expected rebound from 0.7500 is dampening this bearish view. On the downside, break of 0.7500 will target 0.7328 key cluster support (61.8% retracement 0.6826 to 0.8124 at 0.7322) to confirm this bearish case. But break of 0.8124 will extend the rise from 0.6826 to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.6826 (2016 low) at 0.8451 before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7235; (P) 0.7265; (R1) 0.7304; More…

AUD/USD is staying in range of 0.7169/7315 and intraday bias remains neutral. With 0.7315 minor resistance intact, further fall is in favor. On the downside, below 0.7169 will target a test on 0.7105 low. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 0.8006 for 0.6991 support next. On the upside, above 0.7315 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7477 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

AUD/USD dropped notably after edging higher to 0.7483 last week. But downside was contained well above 0.7309 low as the pair recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first. The consolidation from 0.7309 could extend further and above 0.7483 will bring stronger rise. But even in that case, upside should be limited below 0.7676 resistance to bring larger fall resumption. On the downside, below 0.7359 will target 0.7309 support first. Sustained trading below 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) will extend the fall from 0.8135 to 0.7158 support next.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.

In the longer term picture, 0.6826 is seen as a long term bottom. Rise from there could either reverse the down trend from 1.1079, or just develop into a corrective pattern. At this point, we’re favoring the latter. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 holds, we’d anticipate another decline through 0.6826 at a later stage. But strong support should be seen between 0.4773 (2001 low) and 0.6008 (2008 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7454; (P) 0.7480; (R1) 0.7501; More…

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.7158 is still in progress and could target 0.7777/7833 resistance zone. At this point, we’d still expect strong resistance from this zone to limit upside. On the downside, below 0.7448 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.7144 key support level.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD is staying inside long term falling channel and it’s likely that the down trend from 1.1079 is still in progress. Break of 0.6826 low will confirm this bearish case. We’ll be looking for bottoming sign again as it approaches 0.6008 key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.7833 resistance will be a strong sign of medium term reversal.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6640; (P) 0.6671; (R1) 0.6723; More…

AUD/USD dips mildly today but stays inside established range above 0.6594. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. With 0.6710 resistance intact, further decline is in favor. On the downside, break of 0.6594 will resume the decline from 0.6898 to 0.6457 support next. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.6719 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.7156 are seen as a correction to the rebound from 0.6169 only, rather than part of larger down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Break of 0.6457 could cannot be ruled out but downside should be contained above 0.6169. Meanwhile, nevertheless, break of 0.6898 resistance will argue that rise from 0.6169 is ready to resume through 0.7156.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6734; (P) 0.6771; (R1) 0.6803; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside as rise from 0.6457 is still in progress. Next target is 0.6817 structural resistance. Decisive break there should confirm near term bullish reversal, and pave the way to retest 0.7156 resistance next On the downside though, below 0.6736 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.6817 resistance holds, the decline from 0.7156, as well as the down trend from 0.8006 (2021) are still in favor to continue through 0.6169 (2022 low) at a later stage. However, firm break of 0.6817 will indicate that fall from 0.7156 has completed in a three-wave corrective structure. Such development will argue that rise from 0.6169 is ready to resume through 0.7156, and add credence to the case that whole down trend from 0.8006 has completed already.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7068; (P) 0.7089; (R1) 0.7121; More…

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.6828 resumed after brief retreat. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 0.7173). Break there will target 0.7265 resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 0.7034 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6828 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Deeper fall could be seen to 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. Strong support is expected from 0.6756/60 cluster to contain downside to complete the correction. However, sustained break of 0.6756/60 would argue that AUD/USD is indeed already in a medium term down trend.

AUD/USD’s corrective rebound from 0.7804 extended to 0.7303 last week but formed a temporary top there. Initial bias is neutral this week first. While further rise cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited well below 0.7361 resistance to complete the correction and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 0.7228 resistance turned support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.7143 first. Break there will likely resume larger fall from 0.8135 through 0.7084 low. However, sustained break of 0.7361 will carry larger bullish implication.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there would extend to have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Current downside momentum as seen in weekly MACD support this bearish case. Firm break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7361 resistance, however, argues that a medium term bottom is possibly in place, and stronger rebound could follow. We’ll assess the medium term outlook later if this happens.

In the longer term picture, the corrective structure of rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) to 0.8135, and the failure to break 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.6826 at 0.8451, carry bearish implications. AUD/USD was also rejected by 55 month EMA. Now, the down trend from 1.1079 is in favor to extend. On break of 0.6826, next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6575; (P) 0.6610; (R1) 0.6632; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral and consolidations would continue below 0.6645. Further rise is in favor as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 0.6560) holds. Above 0.6645 will resume the rebound from 0.6361. On the downside, however, firm break of 55 4H EMA will bring deeper fall back to 0.6464 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which could still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7244; (P) 0.7283; (R1) 0.7304; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside as fall from 0.7477 is extending. Deeper fall would be seen to retest 0.7105 low first. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 0.8006 for 0.6991 support next. On the upside, above 0.7320 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7477 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7171; (P) 0.7204; (R1) 0.7267; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, decisive break of 0.7313 resistance will argue that correction from 0.8006 has completed at 0.6966, after hitting 0.6991 key support. Outlook will be turned bullish for 0.7555 resistance next. However, break of 0.7085 support will retain near term bearishness and bring retest of 0.6966 low.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on 0.6991 key structural support. Sustained break there will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461. Meanwhile, strong rebound from 0.6991 will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7358; (P) 0.7384; (R1) 0.7433; More…

AUD/USD faced some resistance from 4 hour 55 EMA and retreats. But it’s staying in range of 0.7322/7443 and intraday bias remains neutral. As noted before, as long as 0.7443 resistance holds, further decline is expected. Sustained break of 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) will target 61.8% projection of 0.8135 to 0.7411 from 0.7676 at 0.7229 next. Though, break of 0.7443 resistance will suggest short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound back towards 0.7676 resistance.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6667; (P) 0.6697; (R1) 0.6732; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays on the upside first, despite some loss of momentum as seen in 4H MACD. Fall from 0.7156 could have completed with three waves down to 0.6269. Further rally should be seen to 0.6894 resistance next. Meanwhile, near term outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 0.6524 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) could be just a medium term corrective pattern. Rise from 0.6269 is seen as the third leg of the pattern. For now, range trading should be seen between 0.6169 and 0.7156 (2023 high), until further developments.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7364; (P) 0.7389; (R1) 0.7419; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 0.7288 is still extending. Further fall is expected as long as 0.7443 support turned resistance holds. On the downside, break of 0.7288 will resume the whole decline from 0.8006 to 161.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7530 from 0.7890 at 0.7120 next. On the upside, break of 0.7443 will indicate short term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound to 0.7530 support turned resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5506 medium term bottom could have completed at 0.8006, after failing 0.8135 key resistance. Correction from there could target 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051). We’d look for strong support from there to bring rebound. However, sustained break of this level would argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7249; (P) 0.7283; (R1) 0.7344; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains mildly on the upside, as rebound from 0.7105 would target 0.7425 resistance. Sustained break there will argue that whole correction from 0.8006 has completed at 0.7105 already, just above 0.6991/7051 support zone. Stronger rise would be seen to 0.7530 support turned resistance for confirmation. On the downside, below 0.7221 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.7105 and possibly below. But we’d continue to look for strong support from 0.6991/7051 cluster support to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5506 medium term bottom could have completed at 0.8006, after failing 0.8135 key resistance. Correction from there could target 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051). We’d look for strong support from there to bring rebound. However, sustained break of this level would argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed. Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.6461.