Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6717; (P) 0.6741; (R1) 0.6755; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral first. Recovery from 0.6678 was limited limited by 0.6777 resistance as expected and near term outlook stays bearish. On the downside, decisive break of 0.6670 low will confirm resumption of larger down trend. Next target will be 0.6008 key support. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.6777 will indicate short term bottoming and extend the consolidation pattern from 0.6670 with another near term rise.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). This will remain the favor case as long as 0.7031 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7099; (P) 0.7115; (R1) 0.7144; More…

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.7052 extends higher today and focus is back on 0.7168 resistance. Decisive break there will suggest that the corrective decline from 0.7295 has completed at 0.7003 already. Intraday bias will be turned to the upside to resume the rebound from 0.6722 through 0.7295. On the downside, though, sustained break of 0.7052 will target 0.7004 first. Break will resume the fall from 0.7295 instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, fall from 0.8135 is still expected to extend. Such decline is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

AUD/USD dropped to as low as 0.6586 last week as larger down trend finally resumed. As a temporary low was formed, initial bias is turned neutral this week for some consolidations first. But upside of recovery should be limited well below 0.6750 resistance to bring fall resumption. Break of 0.6586 will extend recent decline.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Rejection by 55 week EMA affirms medium term bearishness. Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7031 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Next downside target is 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6835; (P) 0.6898; (R1) 0.6934; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Correction pattern from 0.7064 is expected to have another decline before completion. On the downside, break of 0.6776 will target 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7064 at 0.6469. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.7064 will resume whole rise from 0.5506 instead.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend form 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7340). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6727). Sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7731; (P) 0.7748; (R1) 0.7778; More…

AUD/USD’s rise from 0.7563 continues today and intraday bias stays on the upside. Firm break of 0.7819 will resume larger up trend from 0.5506, for 61.8% projection of 0.6991 to 0.7819 from 0.7563 at 0.8075. On the downside, break of 0.7717 minor support will delay the bullish case and extend the correction from 0.7819 with another fall.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7067; (P) 0.7108; (R1) 0.7160; More…

AUD/USD’s rally from 0.7003 accelerated to as high as 0.7168 so far. Decisive break of 0.7121 suggests that corrective decline from 0.7295 has completed with three waves down to 0.7003 already. More importantly, rise from 0.6722 might be in progress. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.7206 resistance first. Break will target 0.7295 high next. On the downside, break of 0.7056 is needed to indicate completion of the rise from 0.7003. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain mildly bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we’d treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6884; (P) 0.6925; (R1) 0.6946; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the downside, firm break of 0.6828 support will resume larger fall from 0.8006. Next target is 0.6756/60 cluster support. On the upside, above 0.7068 minor resistance will bring stronger rebound to 0.7282 resistance first. Firm break there will be a sign of bullish reversal and bring stronger rebound to 0.7666 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Deeper fall could still be seen to 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. Strong support is expected from 0.6756/60 cluster to contain downside to complete the correction. Meanwhile, firm break of 0.7660 resistance will confirm that such corrective pattern has completed, and larger up trend is ready to resume.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6847; (P) 0.6893; (R1) 0.6922; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral and more consolidation could be seen below 0.6938 temporary top. Further rise remains mildly in favor as long as 0.6800 support holds. On the upside, above 0.6938 will extend the rebound from 0.6670 to 100% projection of 0.6670 to 0.6929 from 0.6754 at 0.7013 next. However, break of 0.6800 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.6754 support instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7082 resistance intact, there is no clear confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7502).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7053; (P) 0.7068; (R1) 0.7093; More…

A temporary low should be in place at 0.7040 in AUD/USD with today’s recovery. Intraday bias is turned neutral for consolidation first. Stronger recovery could be seen to 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 0.7136). But upside should be limited well below 0.7314 resistance to bring fall resumption. Break of 0.7040 will resume whole down trend from 0.8135 to 61.8% projection of 0.7676 to 0.7084 from 0.7314 at 0.6948 next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.8135 is tentatively treated as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). However, break of 0.7500 support turned resistance will argue that the corrective pattern from 0.6826 is going to extend with another rising leg before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6737; (P) 0.6756; (R1) 0.6788; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. Deeper decline is expected as long as 0.6854 support turned resistance holds. Break of 0.6693 will resume the fall from 0.7156 to 161.8% projection of of 0.6854 to 0.7028 from 0.6854 at 0.6539. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.6854 will argue that such decline is finished, and revive near term bullishness.

In the bigger picture, focus is staying on 0.6721 structural support. Sustained break there will argue that whole rise from 0.6169 (2022 low) has completed at 0.7156, after rejection by 55 month EMA (now at 0.7164). Deeper decline would then be see back to 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546, even as a corrective fall. Nevertheless, strong rebound from current level will retain medium term bullishness for another rise through 0.7156 later.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7600; (P) 0.7618; (R1) 0.7641; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Rebound from 0.7530 is in favor to continue as long as 0.7587 minor support holds. Break of 0.767 will target 0.7848 resistance. Firm break there should confirm completion of the corrective fall from 0.8006. However, break of 0.7587 will likely resume the correction from 0.8006 through 0.7530.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7264; (P) 0.7279; (R1) 0.7305; More…

AUD/USD’s rally from 0.7084 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Current rise could target 0.7361 resistance. But we’d expect upside to be limited limited below there to bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 0.7228 resistance turned support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.7143 first. Break there will likely resume larger fall from 0.8135 through 0.7084 low. However, sustained break of 0.7361 will carry larger bullish implication.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there would extend to have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Current downside momentum as seen in daily and weekly MACD support this bearish case. Firm break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7361 resistance, however, argues that a medium term bottom is possibly in place, and stronger rebound could follow. We’ll assess the medium term outlook later if this happens.

AUD/USD edged lower to 0.7322 last week but failed to sustain below 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326). Initial bias is neutral this week for consolidations first. As long as 0.7443 resistance holds, further decline is expected. Break of 0.7322 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8135 to 0.7411 from 0.7676 at 0.7229 next. Though, break of 0.7443 resistance will suggest short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound back towards 0.7676 resistance.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.

In the longer term picture, 0.6826 is seen as a long term bottom. Rise from there could either reverse the down trend from 1.1079, or just develop into a corrective pattern. At this point, we’re favoring the latter. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 holds, we’d anticipate another decline through 0.6826 at a later stage. But strong support should be seen between 0.4773 (2001 low) and 0.6008 (2008 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7142; (P) 0.7162; (R1) 0.7184; More…

AUD/USD’s sharp decline today suggests that recovery from 0.7054 has completed at 0.7206 already. Intraday bias is cautiously back on the downside for 0.7054 support first. Decisive break there will complete a head and shoulder term pattern (ls: 0.7235, h: 0.7295, rs: 0.7206). That should confirm completion of rebound from 0.6722. Further decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.6722 to 0.7295 at 0.6941 next. On the upside, though, break of 0.7206 will turn focus back to 0.7295 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we’d treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7035; (P) 0.7094; (R1) 0.7135; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is mildly on the downside for retesting 0.6966. Firm break there and sustained trading below 0.6991 will extend the down trend from 0.8006. Next target is 100% projection of 0.7555 to 0.6992 from 0.7313 at 0.6750. On the upside, above 0.7167 will resume the rebound to 0.7313 resistance.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on 0.6991 key structural support. Sustained break there will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461. Meanwhile, strong rebound from 0.6991 will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6817; (P) 0.6829; (R1) 0.6838; More…

AUD/USD is staying in range below 0.6862 temporary top and intraday bias neutral first. For now, further rise remains mildly in favor as long as 0.6813 minor support holds. On the upside, above 0.6862 will target 0.6929 resistance first. Break there will resume the rebound from 0.6670 and target 100% projection of 0.6670 to 0.6929 from 0.6754 at 0.7013. On the downside, however, break of 0.6813 will dampen this bullish case and turn focus back to 0.6754 support instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7082 resistance intact, there is no clear confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7525).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7707; (P) 0.7731; (R1) 0.7746; More…

With 0.7650 minor support intact, further rise is expected in AUD/USD for 0.7819 resistance. Firm break there will resume larger up trend from 0.5506. Next near term target is 61.8% projection of 0.6991 to 0.7819 from 0.7563 at 0.8075. On the downside, break of 0.7650 minor support will delay the bullish case and extend the correction from 0.7819.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7667; (P) 0.7725; (R1) 0.7760; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside as fall from 0.8124 is still in progress. Deeper decline would be seen to medium term fibonacci level at 0.7628 first. Current development affirms the case of medium term reversal. Firm break of 0.7628 will pave the way to 0.7328 key support next. On the upside, above 0.7769 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will remain cautiously bearish as long as 0.7896 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is seen as corrective pattern. Current development suggests that it might be completed with three waves up to 0.8124 already. Break of 38.2% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8124 at 0.7628 will affirm this bearish case. And, decisive break of 0.7328 key cluster support (61.8% retracement at 0.7322) will confirm and bring retest of 0.6826 low. In case rise from 0.6826 resumes and extends, strong resistance should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6764; (P) 0.6773; (R1) 0.6781; More…

With 0.6808 minor resistance intact, intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside for 0.6677 low first. Break will resume larger down trend. On the upside, above 0.6808 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.6894 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.6722 short term bottom extended higher last week. And despite loss of upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD, there is no sign of topping yet. Initial bias remains mildly on the upside for further rally. But upside should be limited by 0.7393 resistance to bring reversal. On the downside, break of 0.7116 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6722 low.

In the bigger picture, the failure to sustain below 0.6826 (2016 low) suggests that the long term down trend is not ready to resume yet. But prior rejection by 55 week EMA indicates underlying medium term bearishness in the pair. Outlook will also stay bearish as long as 0.7393 resistance holds. On the downside, sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 (2008 low).

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 low and then 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.