Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7850; (P) 0.7901; (R1) 0.7929; More…

AUD/USD’s fall from 0.8135 continues to as low as 0.7847 so far today and touches 55 day EMA (now at 0.7854). Intraday bias remains on the downside. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will argue that rise from 0.7500 has totally completed and will pave the way to retest this support level. On the upside, above 0.7953 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But recovery will likely be limited below 0.8135 resistance at first attempt.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7459; (P) 0.7475; (R1) 0.7501; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 0.7439 temporary low. Upside of recovery should b limited by 0.7609 resistance and bring another fall. Rise from 0.7158 should have completed at 0.7748 already. Below 0.7439 will target a test on 0.7144/7158 support zone. At this point, there is no clear sign of larger down trend resumption yet. Hence we’ll be cautious on strong support from0.7144/58 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.7609 will argue that the fall from 0.7748 has completed. In such case, bias will be turned back to the upside for 0.7748 resistance.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction pattern. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8118) and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6980; (P) 0.6999; (R1) 0.7019; More…

AUD/USD’s drops to as low as 0.6945 so far as recent decline resumed by breaking 0.6962 temporary low. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 100% projection of 0.7295 to 0.7003 from 0.7205 at 0.6913. Decisive break there will indicate further downside acceleration and pave the way to retest 0.6722 low. On the upside, break of 0.7018 minor resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7930; (P) 0.7952; (R1) 0.7983; More…

Despite edging higher to 0.7972, AUD/USD quickly retreated back to familiar range. Intraday bias stays neutral first. Correction from 0.8065 might extend and another fall cannot be ruled out. But downside should be contained by 0.7785 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.7328 to 0.8065 at 0.7783) to bring rebound. Above 0.7972 will target a test on 0.8065 resistance first. Firm break of 0.8065 will resume the medium term rise and target 100% projection of 0.6826 to 0.7833 from 0.7328 at 0.8335.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is still in progress. At this point, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we’ll continue to treat such rebound as a corrective pattern. But in any case, break of 55 month EMA (now at 0.8097) will target 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451. Break of 0.7328 support is needed to confirm completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise is now in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6242; (P) 0.6271; (R1) 0.6305; More…

AUD/USD is losing some downside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But further decline is expected with 0.6362 resistance holds. Current decline should target 100% projection of 0.7660 to 0.6680 from 0.7135 at 0.6155. On the upside, above 0.6362 minor resistance will turn intraday bias to the upside, for rebound to 0.6539 resistance.

In the bigger picture, down trend form 0.8006 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 0.6680 support turned resistance holds. Next target is 0.5506 low. Medium term momentum will now be closely monitored to gauge the chance of break of 0.5506.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7391; (P) 0.7418; (R1) 0.7439; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays mildly on the upside at this point. Recovery from 0.7345 could extend higher. But upside should be limited below 0.7676 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside break of 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) will target 61.8% projection of 0.8135 to 0.7411 from 0.7676 at 0.7229 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7340; (P) 0.7372; (R1) 0.7399; More…

AUD/USD is staying in retreat from 0.7477 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Further rally is still in favor as long as 0.7279 support holds. As noted before, correction from 0.8006 should have completed at 0.7105 already. Above 0.7477 will target 0.7530 support turned resistance first. However, firm break of 0.7279 will dampen our bullish view and bring retest of 0.7105 low.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action form 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7755; (P) 0.7794; (R1) 0.7864; More…

AUD/USD’s rally is still in progress and edges higher to 0.7838. Intraday bias remains on the upside at this point. Firm break of 0.7833 resistance will confirm resumption of whole rebound from 0.6826 bottom. In such case, AUD/USD would target 61.8% projection of 0.6826 to 0.7833 from 0.7328 at 0.7950 next. On the downside, below 0.7801 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But near term outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 0.7570 support holds.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rebound from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rise. There is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we’ll continue to treat such rebound as a corrective pattern. But in any case, further rise is now expected to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8100) or even further to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451. Break of 0.7328 support is needed to confirm completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise is now in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6368; (P) 0.6398; (R1) 0.6428; More…

AUD/USD recovered after drawing support from 0.6371, but stays below 0.6539 resistance. Intraday bias stays neutral first. On the upside, decisive break of 0.6535 resistance, and sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 0.6553), will raise the chance of medium term bottoming, and target 0.6680 support turned resistance next. On the downside, below 0.6371 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6169 low instead.

In the bigger picture, down trend form 0.8006 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 0.6680 support turned resistance holds. Medium term momentum remains strong and retest of 0.5506 (2020 low) cannot be ruled out. But firm break of 0.6680 will be the first sign of reversal, and bring stronger rebound back to 0.7135 resistance.

AUD/USD recovered to 0.7206 last week but upside was held well below 0.7295 resistance. Nevertheless, as fall from 0.7206 was contained above 0.7054 support, initial bias is neutral this week first. On the downside, decisive break of 0.7054 will complete a head and shoulder reversal pattern (ls: 0.7235, h: 0.7295, rs: 0.7206). That should confirm completion of rebound from 0.6722. Further decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.6722 to 0.7295 at 0.6941 next. On the upside, though, break of 0.7206 will turn focus back to 0.7295 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we’d treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 low and then 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.7158 extended last week and the stronger than expected rise is mixing up outlook. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 61.8% retracement of 0.7777 to 0.7518 at 0.7541. At this point, we’d expect strong resistance from 0.7777/7833 to limit upside. On the downside, below 0.7351 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.7144 key support level.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD is staying inside long term falling channel and it’s likely that the down trend from 1.1079 is still in progress. Break of 0.6826 low will confirm this bearish case. We’ll be looking for bottoming sign again as it approaches 0.6008 key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.7833 resistance will be a strong sign of medium term reversal.

In the longer term picture, while the down trend from 1.1079 might extend lower, we’re not anticipating a break of 0.6008 (2008 low) yet. We’ll look for bottoming above there to reverse the medium term trend.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6877; (P) 0.6902; (R1) 0.6930; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. Outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.6721 support holds. Break of 0.6949 will resume larger rise from 0.6169 to 61.8% projection of 0.6169 to 0.6892 from 0.6721 at 0.7444 next. However, firm break of 0.6721 will indicate near term reversal and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 0.8006 (2021 high) should have completed with three waves down to 0.6169 (2022 low). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.6871. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 0.8006. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6721 support holds.

AUD/USD edged lower to 0.6468 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for more consolidations. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.6621 resistance holds. Break of 0.6468 will resume the decline from 0.6870 to 61.8% projection of 0.6870 to 0.6524 from 0.6621 at 0.6407.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen the second leg of the pattern. Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6697; (P) 0.6740; (R1) 0.6803; More…

AUD/USD recovered after hitting 0.6677 and intraday bias is turned neutral for consolidations first. Upside of recovery should be limited below 0.6910 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.6677 will resume larger down trend to 100% projections of 0.7295 to 0.6831 from 0.7082 at 0.6618.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Firm break of 0.6826 (2016 low) is confirm this bearish view. Further fall should be seen to 0.6008 (2008 low) next. On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

AUD/USD edged higher to 0.7604 last week but treated since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 0.7502 minor support will suggest that the corrective recovery from 0.7411 has completed. Intraday bias would be turned back to the downside for 0.7411 and below to resume the larger decline from 0.8135 to cluster support at 0.7328 (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326). Above 0.7604 will extend the corrective rise. But we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7144 at 0.7688 to limit upside.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. Prior break of 0.7500 key support suggests that such correction is completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. In case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption eventually.

In the longer term picture, 0.6826 is seen as a long term bottom. Rise from there could either reverse the down trend from 1.1079, or just develop into a corrective pattern. At this point, we’re favoring the latter. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 holds, we’d anticipate another decline through 0.6826 at a later stage. But strong support should be seen between 0.4773 (2001 low) and 0.6008 (2008 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7063; (P) 0.7095; (R1) 0.7113; More…

AUD/USD’s break of 0.7088 minor support should indicate completion of corrective rise from 0.7040 at 0.7159. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.7040 low first. Break there will resume recent down from 0.8135. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 0.7314 to 0.7040 from 0.7159 at 0.6990 and then 100% projection at 0.6885. On the upside, in case of another recovery, we’d expect strong resistance from 0.7159 to limit upside to bring down trend resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.8135 is tentatively treated as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7314 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook stays bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6630; (P) 0.6652; (R1) 0.6668; More...

AUD/USD jumps notably today but stays in consolidations below 0.6713. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Further rally is in favor with 0.6578 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.6361 to 0.6713 at 0.6579) intact. On the upside, firm break of 0.6713 will resume whole rise from 0.6361 to 0.6870 resistance next. However, sustained break of 0.6578 will dampen this bullish view, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.6495.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which could have completed at 0.6269 already. Rise from there is seen as the third leg which is now trying to resume through 0.6870 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7275; (P) 0.7303; (R1) 0.7334; More….

AUD/USD remains bounded in consolidation from 0.7339 and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rise is in favor with 0.7221 support intact. Consolidation pattern from 0.7413 could have completed with three waves to 0.6991. On the upside, break of 0.7339 will target at test on 0.7413 high first. Firm break there will resume larger rally from 0.5506. Nevertheless, on the downside, break of 0.7221 minor support would likely extend the consolidation pattern from 0.7413 with another falling leg.

In the bigger picture, while rebound from 0.5506 was strong, there is not enough evidence to confirm bullish trend reversal yet. That is, it could be just a correction inside the long term down trend. Sustained trading back below 55 week EMA (now at 0.6969) will favor the bearish case and argue that the rebound has completed. Focus will be turned back to 0.5506 low. On the upside, break of 0.7413 will extend the rise from 0.5506 to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6296; (P) 0.6315; (R1) 0.6332; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as consolidation form 0.6284 could extend further. But downside breakout is expected with 0.6444 resistance intact. ON the downside, firm break of 0.6284 will resume whole fall from 0.7156. Next target is 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195, which is close to 0.6169 medium term support.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is possibly still in progress. Decisive break of 0.6169 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6021. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6894, in case of strong rebound.

AUD/USD’s decline from 0.7156 resumed last week and fell to 0.6284. But a temporary low was then formed with subsequent recovery. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.6500 resistance holds. Below 0.6284 will resume the fall from 0.7156. Next target is 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is possibly still in progress. Decisive break of 0.6169 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6021. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6894, in case of strong rebound.

In the long term picture, while fall from 0.8006 might extend lower, the structure argues that it’s merely a correction to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). In case of downside extension, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal. But still, momentum of the next move will be monitored to adjust the assessment.